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Cornona Effects on House Prices


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2 hours ago, sp84 said:

That's very true ... The circumstances today are absolutely subject to change and another absolute unknown to throw into the equation sadly. 

May I also ask what you would class as a "significant" crash?

Obviously there are lots of % flying around and it's anyone's guess.

Prices here are currently 38% below the level they were at in 2008. So perhaps that means they have less of a distance to fall I assume? Whereas in England they are 23% above peak levels. 

As I had said in an earlier post, the biggest fall which I had seen predicted for NI was 16% - that was from which.com 

Propertypal also released a few articles back in April time. They predicted a 70% fall in sales numbers in quarter 2 (the actual figure was 66%) so they weren't far off the mark. 

They also predicted for NI a fall in prices in the range of 3%-5% but said it could be more depending on the lockdown period. 

I think that there will be price rises and decreases all at the same time, I think apartments in Belfast and other towns could be badly hit as people crave some outside space, blocks that are already less desirable will seriously fall in value, at the same apartment blocks in seaside towns etc may not be as badly hit, I think houses with outside space will continue to sell well, however houses with good gardens and good locations will continue to rise in value, knowing a lot of estate agents , the majority of people are looking for bigger gardens etc. This could also damage a lot of the new homes developments which have squeezed as many houses as physically possible into the tiniest space

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20 minutes ago, stingray192 said:

I think that there will be price rises and decreases all at the same time, I think apartments in Belfast and other towns could be badly hit as people crave some outside space, blocks that are already less desirable will seriously fall in value, at the same apartment blocks in seaside towns etc may not be as badly hit, I think houses with outside space will continue to sell well, however houses with good gardens and good locations will continue to rise in value, knowing a lot of estate agents , the majority of people are looking for bigger gardens etc. This could also damage a lot of the new homes developments which have squeezed as many houses as physically possible into the tiniest space

Thanks a lot for your input @stingray192 !!

I hadn't thought of looking at it that way - the reason why I have decided on this home (despite it being older and not a new build) - was due to having a front and back garden!

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13 hours ago, sp84 said:

That's very true ... The circumstances today are absolutely subject to change and another absolute unknown to throw into the equation sadly. 

May I also ask what you would class as a "significant" crash?

Obviously there are lots of % flying around and it's anyone's guess.

Prices here are currently 38% below the level they were at in 2008. So perhaps that means they have less of a distance to fall I assume? Whereas in England they are 23% above peak levels. 

As I had said in an earlier post, the biggest fall which I had seen predicted for NI was 16% - that was from which.com 

Propertypal also released a few articles back in April time. They predicted a 70% fall in sales numbers in quarter 2 (the actual figure was 66%) so they weren't far off the mark. 

They also predicted for NI a fall in prices in the range of 3%-5% but said it could be more depending on the lockdown period. 

Which I believe were reporting the BOE figure of 16%. PP said 3-5% at the start of lockdown. Worth pointing out they are a portal for estate agents. Paid for by EA subscriptions. They conducted a sentiment survey recently and the expectation was drops of 20%. Over 85% expect drops. 

Significant drop for me would be 20%+. I can see the headline drop not far off that particularly if unemployment is as large as i predict. 

I pay very little attention to the difference in price movements in GB and NI. Whilst we have the same tax system, we have a very different mortgage lending environment. We both suffered the 2007 financial crisis but very different results re house prices. The current crisis will affect us differently. Just like brexit and the inevitable austerity post covid will too. 

 

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16 minutes ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

Which I believe were reporting the BOE figure of 16%. PP said 3-5% at the start of lockdown. Worth pointing out they are a portal for estate agents. Paid for by EA subscriptions. They conducted a sentiment survey recently and the expectation was drops of 20%. Over 85% expect drops. 

Significant drop for me would be 20%+. I can see the headline drop not far off that particularly if unemployment is as large as i predict. 

I pay very little attention to the difference in price movements in GB and NI. Whilst we have the same tax system, we have a very different mortgage lending environment. We both suffered the 2007 financial crisis but very different results re house prices. The current crisis will affect us differently. Just like brexit and the inevitable austerity post covid will too. 

 

Thank you @2buyornot2buy ! Ugh that doesn't make for pleasant reading at all. 

It is such a difficult decision to make at a time like this. The market here appears to be currently very busy - which I know won't last as we work towards the end of the year. 

Can I ask 2 (what may seem like random) questions.

1) If you were moving into a house in the current climate, in terms of savings, roughly how much would make you comfortable moving forward and going through with signing ? ... I know that many people often save for their deposit and just a little bit more, before moving in. 

2) If the fall in house prices is 20% this time around - I assume that won't necessarily reflect people's experiences in 2008 (with regards to negative equity)? Seeing as back then prices fell by over 50% 

I know that I keep going around in circles with a lot of this (my wife has already pointed that out haha) - I'm due to meet the solicitor on Friday with a view to signing next week ... Being with family (for 4 years now) my literal only other option is to rent (and pay more more month).

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1 minute ago, sp84 said:

Thank you @2buyornot2buy ! Ugh that doesn't make for pleasant reading at all. 

It is such a difficult decision to make at a time like this. The market here appears to be currently very busy - which I know won't last as we work towards the end of the year. 

Can I ask 2 (what may seem like random) questions.

1) If you were moving into a house in the current climate, in terms of savings, roughly how much would make you comfortable moving forward and going through with signing ? ... I know that many people often save for their deposit and just a little bit more, before moving in. 

2) If the fall in house prices is 20% this time around - I assume that won't necessarily reflect people's experiences in 2008 (with regards to negative equity)? Seeing as back then prices fell by over 50% 

I know that I keep going around in circles with a lot of this (my wife has already pointed that out haha) - I'm due to meet the solicitor on Friday with a view to signing next week ... Being with family (for 4 years now) my literal only other option is to rent (and pay more more month).

It's very much a personal decision based on your experiences and finances. Only you can decided what makes sense to you and your circumstances are going to be different from mine. How much I can save and you will be different, we'll also have different discretionary spending and different debt. I moved and put a large deposit down. I also spent a significant amount modernising. I was lucky also in that the money I was spending went much further than it does today. Tradesman were cheaper and chasing work. My mortgage is less than 5% of my annual household take-home but my rate is 1.09%. I save probably 40%+ but then have a thing for expensive holidays. Childcare is a big hit obviously. I as an absolute unbreakable rule keep 12 months outgoings as a buffer in cash savings. I really think as a minimum everyone should have 6 months. Particularly now. 

Step back. If you we're 10 or 20% in negative equity what changes for you? If life goes on as normal but you'll only be kicking yourself that you timed the market badly I'd probably go ahead if I had kids or was planning on having them. Realistically the drops (I think) are going to take at least a year. 

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7 minutes ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

It's very much a personal decision based on your experiences and finances. Only you can decided what makes sense to you and your circumstances are going to be different from mine. How much I can save and you will be different, we'll also have different discretionary spending and different debt. I moved and put a large deposit down. I also spent a significant amount modernising. I was lucky also in that the money I was spending went much further than it does today. Tradesman were cheaper and chasing work. My mortgage is less than 5% of my annual household take-home but my rate is 1.09%. I save probably 40%+ but then have a thing for expensive holidays. Childcare is a big hit obviously. I as an absolute unbreakable rule keep 12 months outgoings as a buffer in cash savings. I really think as a minimum everyone should have 6 months. Particularly now. 

Step back. If you we're 10 or 20% in negative equity what changes for you? If life goes on as normal but you'll only be kicking yourself that you timed the market badly I'd probably go ahead if I had kids or was planning on having them. Realistically the drops (I think) are going to take at least a year. 

Thanks a lot @2buyornot2buy ! I think what's getting me so worked up, is just that throughout my entire life I have been pretty good with money. I have always been able to save. Currently I have zero debts and the only one I did have (student loan) has just been paid off. So I think that is why the idea of negative equity etc is giving me anxiety.

We would have about a years worth of outgoings saved for moving in. So I understand that I would be in a much better position than most FTB's.

We would just have the bog standard outgoings of car insurance, life insurance etc and the mortgage offer I have will cost £478 for the next 2 years before the deal is up. So not astronomical by any stretch of the imagination. I know that to rent I would be looking at around £650 a month. 

As you mentioned at the end there, in relation to kids - that is my biggest driving force behind pushing forward. We have a 3 year old and would like another.  As she is getting bigger it is becoming awfully cramped living with family. We all need our own space. 

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12 minutes ago, sp84 said:

Thanks a lot @2buyornot2buy ! I think what's getting me so worked up, is just that throughout my entire life I have been pretty good with money. I have always been able to save. Currently I have zero debts and the only one I did have (student loan) has just been paid off. So I think that is why the idea of negative equity etc is giving me anxiety.

We would have about a years worth of outgoings saved for moving in. So I understand that I would be in a much better position than most FTB's.

We would just have the bog standard outgoings of car insurance, life insurance etc and the mortgage offer I have will cost £478 for the next 2 years before the deal is up. So not astronomical by any stretch of the imagination. I know that to rent I would be looking at around £650 a month. 

As you mentioned at the end there, in relation to kids - that is my biggest driving force behind pushing forward. We have a 3 year old and would like another.  As she is getting bigger it is becoming awfully cramped living with family. We all need our own space. 

The kids for me is the big one. To be honest for their sake I'd personally, with my circumstances, be comfortable taking a hit. You sound like you're the same. You have the savings, keep them at that level and concentrate on overpaying. 

Just worth mentioning something that's often missed in the rent vs own debate. Your rates are paid when renting and you don't need to worry about buildings insurance or maintenance. It adds up and there's probably not such a massive gap. You're moving into a redbrick semi. I'm in a old redbrick house, maintenance and fixing DIY disasters is a pain. I've spent thousands on plumbers, sparks and plasterers. There's always something needs doing but it's worth the effort. 

Best of luck. 

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14 minutes ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

The kids for me is the big one. To be honest for their sake I'd personally, with my circumstances, be comfortable taking a hit. You sound like you're the same. You have the savings, keep them at that level and concentrate on overpaying. 

Just worth mentioning something that's often missed in the rent vs own debate. Your rates are paid when renting and you don't need to worry about buildings insurance or maintenance. It adds up and there's probably not such a massive gap. You're moving into a redbrick semi. I'm in a old redbrick house, maintenance and fixing DIY disasters is a pain. I've spent thousands on plumbers, sparks and plasterers. There's always something needs doing but it's worth the effort. 

Best of luck. 

Thank you so much @2buyornot2buy ! That's true about rent and something that is often overlooked !

And yes if I'm honest - the main reason for pushing forward is because of the wee one. Giving her a room for herself, being in a good school catchment area etc 

The people currently in the house have been there for 18 years and are in their 40's. They seem to have taken care of the property over that time and given it a lot of TLC. They have added some improvements. E.g. opened up the kitchen and bathroom with steel beams with building approval, cavity wall insulation etc  

The only bit of work I know that I have to do going in, is a little bit of work on the garage. Little bit of bowing in the roof so extra wooden support is needed (I had a structural engineer look at it).

I'm lucky in a sense that within my close family I have a plumber, plasterer, spark, tiler and painter and decorator - so that should help with potential maintenance! 

I know I'm a pain in the **** lol but can I ask about 2008 and what way the prices fell? Were they incremental? I think I had read that they bottomed out in 2012? So it took 4 years of gradual falls. 

You had said you don't expect to see any impact show itself for at least a year - I assume that fall would be incremental too? And not a matter of, we just wake up one day and house prices are 20% lower ?

The reason I'm asking is because my mortgage deal expires in April of 2022. If the fall happens incrementally and haven't reached their bottom by then ... I will possibly be in a stronger position to remortgage than if the fall happens overnight. 

And possibly be able to lock in for a longer than 2 years, fixed rate. 

Cheers!

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9 minutes ago, sp84 said:

Thank you so much @2buyornot2buy ! That's true about rent and something that is often overlooked !

And yes if I'm honest - the main reason for pushing forward is because of the wee one. Giving her a room for herself, being in a good school catchment area etc 

The people currently in the house have been there for 18 years and are in their 40's. They seem to have taken care of the property over that time and given it a lot of TLC. They have added some improvements. E.g. opened up the kitchen and bathroom with steel beams with building approval, cavity wall insulation etc  

The only bit of work I know that I have to do going in, is a little bit of work on the garage. Little bit of bowing in the roof so extra wooden support is needed (I had a structural engineer look at it).

I'm lucky in a sense that within my close family I have a plumber, plasterer, spark, tiler and painter and decorator - so that should help with potential maintenance! 

I know I'm a pain in the **** lol but can I ask about 2008 and what way the prices fell? Were they incremental? I think I had read that they bottomed out in 2012? So it took 4 years of gradual falls. 

You had said you don't expect to see any impact show itself for at least a year - I assume that fall would be incremental too? And not a matter of, we just wake up one day and house prices are 20% lower ?

The reason I'm asking is because my mortgage deal expires in April of 2022. If the fall happens incrementally and haven't reached their bottom by then ... I will possibly be in a stronger position to remortgage than if the fall happens overnight. 

And possibly be able to lock in for a longer than 2 years, fixed rate. 

Cheers!

Honestly I've no idea. It could be mass  unemployment massive drop or it could be a five year up and down with a downward trend like last time. 

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1 hour ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

Honestly I've no idea. It could be mass  unemployment massive drop or it could be a five year up and down with a downward trend like last time. 

Thanks @2buyornot2buy - I know the reality is that no one really knows. I also know that it's human nature to always expect the worst case scenario ... sadly with my personality that leaves me with a tendancy to overthink, over analyse and leave no stone unturned when making a decision ... Not a good way to live when it comes to stress/anxiety levels.

I appreciate all of the input from everyone! 

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15 minutes ago, sp84 said:

Thanks @2buyornot2buy - I know the reality is that no one really knows. I also know that it's human nature to always expect the worst case scenario ... sadly with my personality that leaves me with a tendancy to overthink, over analyse and leave no stone unturned when making a decision ... Not a good way to live when it comes to stress/anxiety levels.

I appreciate all of the input from everyone! 

I honestly think your buying your family home, your probably going to be in it for years, enjoy it and don’t think of it as an investment, it will be yours to do whatever you want with, with renting there is no stability, you can be asked to leave at any time and you can’t do whatever you want to the house, your new home can be decorated whatever way you want, if it goes down a bit then it’s bad luck, it might also rise a bit but most importantly it’s your own home

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1 hour ago, sp84 said:

Thanks @2buyornot2buy - I know the reality is that no one really knows. I also know that it's human nature to always expect the worst case scenario ... sadly with my personality that leaves me with a tendancy to overthink, over analyse and leave no stone unturned when making a decision ... Not a good way to live when it comes to stress/anxiety levels.

I appreciate all of the input from everyone! 

Best of luck  

Just remember for this transaction and any in future. Your solicitor works for you, spent 3 to 4 years at uni, 2 years at the Law Institute, is professionally regulated and liable for any conveyancing errors. The estate agent works for the vendor, could have spend 3 hours on a social media influencer course and is paid via commission. 

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5 hours ago, stingray192 said:

I honestly think your buying your family home, your probably going to be in it for years, enjoy it and don’t think of it as an investment, it will be yours to do whatever you want with, with renting there is no stability, you can be asked to leave at any time and you can’t do whatever you want to the house, your new home can be decorated whatever way you want, if it goes down a bit then it’s bad luck, it might also rise a bit but most importantly it’s your own home

Thanks very much @stingray192 - that is the way I am trying to think about it. 

Oh yea definitely @2buyornot2buy ! I'll be honest in saying that the beginning of all my anxiety over this, actually came from a letter a received from my solicitor.

It highlighted the uncertainty on the economic front and the potential impact on the housing market. I know that they are doing their due diligence and trying to protect me as their client. 

I phoned and asked what exactly they were advising me to do. They explained that the letter was just outlining the potential (unknown) risks involved in proceeding and that ultimately, the decision rests with myself. So they wouldn't actually tell me if I should step back from the purchase or not. 

They were honest and said that their other clients are doing a range of things. Some are stepping back and others proceeding. 

That brought me to speaking to you lovely folks!

In your previous comment I know you're saying listen to the solicitor, not the estate agent - what do you do when the solicitor is sitting on the fence ?

 

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On 21/07/2020 at 23:16, stingray192 said:

I think that there will be price rises and decreases all at the same time, I think apartments in Belfast and other towns could be badly hit as people crave some outside space, blocks that are already less desirable will seriously fall in value, at the same apartment blocks in seaside towns etc may not be as badly hit, I think houses with outside space will continue to sell well, however houses with good gardens and good locations will continue to rise in value, knowing a lot of estate agents , the majority of people are looking for bigger gardens etc. This could also damage a lot of the new homes developments which have squeezed as many houses as physically possible into the tiniest space

I agree demand for housing will increase and demand for apartments will likely fall.

Houses with larger gardens and close to parks and other ammenties will be in strong demand.

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On 22/07/2020 at 12:03, sp84 said:

I know I'm a pain in the **** lol but can I ask about 2008 and what way the prices fell? Were they incremental? I think I had read that they bottomed out in 2012? So it took 4 years of gradual falls. 

The market stalled in the middle of 2007. Prices didn't fall much that year, but volumes collapsed . Then in 2008 prices started falling the way they went up. They were going up by 15-20% a quarter. That reversed in 2008. Most of the falls happened in the first 18 months. Then a gradual decline for 3 years.

I have a questions for you - do you think house prices will go up in the next year? Or do you think they will start crashing?

1611885070_NIHousePriceChart.thumb.jpg.4b49af6163f39a2e95939f41c70bad4a.jpg

I think you mentioned unemployment in one of your posts. Unemployment started falling at the end of 2012. Just as house prices started rising. What do you think is going to happen to unemployment over the next few years?

My opinion is that the economy has had a heart attack and the government is pumping in as much of the debt drug as it can to keep the patient alive, but there is a cliff ahead.

House prices...wile_coyote_1005.jpg.067e913d16598e1e5990ee37df62b11c.jpg

 

Full disclosure - I don't own a house and I am an economy and property bear. DYOR

Good luck. You are going to need it.

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4 minutes ago, Belfast Boy said:

The market stalled in the middle of 2007. Prices didn't fall much that year, but volumes collapsed . Then in 2008 prices started falling the way they went up. They were going up by 15-20% a month. That reversed in 2008. Most of the falls happened in the first 18 months. Then a gradual decline for 3 years.

I have a questions for you - do you think house prices will go up in the next year? Or do you think they will start crashing?

1611885070_NIHousePriceChart.thumb.jpg.4b49af6163f39a2e95939f41c70bad4a.jpg

I think you mentioned unemployment in one of your posts. Unemployment started falling at the end of 2012. Just as house prices started rising. What do you think is going to happen to unemployment over the next few years?

My opinion is that the economy has had a heart attach and the government is pumping in as much of the debt drug as it can to keep the patient alive, but there is a cliff ahead.

House prices...wile_coyote_1005.jpg.067e913d16598e1e5990ee37df62b11c.jpg

 

Full disclosure - I don't own a house and I am an economy and property bear. DYOR

Good luck. You are going to need it.

No I do not think they will rise - hence my anxiety over the entire situation and the reason why I brought up unemployment. Which I do think will rise.

Personally I am perfectly happy if there is no rise in prices as it is not a short term investment for me. It is my £155k house dropping by £50k that frightens me -  I am obviously not sure how realistic/unrealistic that is. 

Can I ask what you define as crashing? ... That is why I had asked the question about 08. I had no idea that prices were rising 15%-20% per month. I knew they obviously sky rocketed, but I was unaware it was by that percentage. 

That links to a point I had made in an earlier post - in relation to house prices currently not being overinflated to those levels this time around. In NI it has been a gradual year on year increase since 2012/2013. 

Should that technically not mean that prices so not have "as far" to fall as they did in 08? 

I'm not sure what a property and economy bear is haha!

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3 minutes ago, sp84 said:

No I do not think they will rise - hence my anxiety over the entire situation and the reason why I brought up unemployment. Which I do think will rise.

Personally I am perfectly happy if there is no rise in prices as it is not a short term investment for me. It is my £155k house dropping by £50k that frightens me -  I am obviously not sure how realistic/unrealistic that is. 

Can I ask what you define as crashing? ... That is why I had asked the question about 08. I had no idea that prices were rising 15%-20% per month. I knew they obviously sky rocketed, but I was unaware it was by that percentage. 

That links to a point I had made in an earlier post - in relation to house prices currently not being overinflated to those levels this time around. In NI it has been a gradual year on year increase since 2012/2013. 

Should that technically not mean that prices so not have "as far" to fall as they did in 08? 

I'm not sure what a property and economy bear is haha!

Oops.... I meant a quarter... doh!

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12 minutes ago, Belfast Boy said:

Oops.... I meant a quarter... doh!

Ah right! That's still a significant rise in short periods of time.

What would you class as crashing ? With our prices here still being behind where they were in 08?

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22 minutes ago, sp84 said:

Should that technically not mean that prices so not have "as far" to fall as they did in 08? 

I'm not sure what a property and economy bear is haha!

I though that property prices should have fallen further than they did from 2008 to 2013. After all, they went up 3 times in just 10 years.

It will be fascinating to see if prices correct further this time. 

There are people still waiting for prices to return to normal i.e. 2007. That was a bubble. That was not normal. 

One of the things you can use to estimate 'affordability' is rateable value. That is roughly where prices bottomed last time.

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Remember everyone here has their own take on things. I'm a bear like Belfast or though I do own my own home. BelfastVI is a property developer and BTL owner. Stingray is an ex Estate Agent and Nigooner is also a BTL person and that's just a snapshot of done posters on this thread. 

We all have our own views. Some here's livelihood depends on property being X value, I personally believe they have to drop to give younger generations a chance at a life. No one can tell you what will happen. 

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2 minutes ago, Belfast Boy said:

I though that property prices should have fallen further than they did from 2008 to 2013. After all, they went up 3 times in just 10 years.

It will be fascinating to see if prices correct further this time. 

There are people still waiting for prices to return to normal i.e. 2007. That was a bubble. That was not normal. 

One of the things you can use to calculate 'affordability' is rateable value. That is roughly where prices bottomed last time.

2005 levels (£503) could be where adjusted earnings will be at once this is over. 

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3 minutes ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

I'm a bear like Belfast or though I do own my own home. 

I was thinking I should change my name to Belfast Bear.:D If you go down to the woods today... 

 

 

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1 minute ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

2005 levels (£503) could be where adjusted earnings will be at once this is over. 

I'm not too sure what this means ? 

Thank you ... 

Tomorrow I am due to meet my solicitor to discuss and go over the paperwork ... My guess is that it will be with a view to sign it next week. 

It is probably much too late into the game to discuss price discounts and reissuing of mortgage contracts. 

I honestly feel like being sick 

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1 minute ago, Belfast Boy said:

I was thinking I should change my name to Belfast Bear.:D If you go down to the woods today... 

 

 

I got a new tablet phone and I just can't get the predictive text to work. No idea who Belfast or is. 

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1 minute ago, sp84 said:

I'm not too sure what this means ? 

Thank you ... 

Tomorrow I am due to meet my solicitor to discuss and go over the paperwork ... My guess is that it will be with a view to sign it next week. 

It is probably much too late into the game to discuss price discounts and reissuing of mortgage contracts. 

I honestly feel like being sick 

Adjusted for inflation average earnings in NI still haven't reached 2009 levels. What I'm saying is I can see average earnings dropping to 2005 levels. 

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  • 415 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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