Cornona Effects on House Prices

[JoeDavola]

On 24/08/2020 at 10:42, BelfastVI said:

Belfast City Council has big plans for getting people living in apartments over the shops etc. I am not so sure and I don't think the lockdown period will help

What specifically are they trying to do? Is this the 'Tribeca' development, or are they looking at developing the space above commercial premises across the wider city centre?

I love living in an apartment but I've reached an age where I'm looking to move out of the city centre. I don't think we 'do' apartment living very well here in terms of the size of apartments; and most people end up wanting to move out of them by the time they hit 30.

The other issue is, and I say this as someone who has lived in the city centre for a decade; there isn't an awful lot of interest to actually do in the city center IMO beyond going out drinking. There isn't exactly thriving cultural scene.

[BelfastVI]

On 07/09/2020 at 13:07, JoeDavola said:

What specifically are they trying to do? Is this the 'Tribeca' development, or are they looking at developing the space above commercial premises across the wider city centre?

I love living in an apartment but I've reached an age where I'm looking to move out of the city centre. I don't think we 'do' apartment living very well here in terms of the size of apartments; and most people end up wanting to move out of them by the time they hit 30.

The other issue is, and I say this as someone who has lived in the city centre for a decade; there isn't an awful lot of interest to actually do in the city center IMO beyond going out drinking. There isn't exactly thriving cultural scene.

The want to increase living in the City Centre. Tribeca is part of that. They want to go high and want to have people 'living above the shops'. As I say I am not so sure thats what people wanted in Belfast and Covid-19 has made my view on this even stronger.. 

 

Manhattan has 15,000 vacent apartments for the first time ever. There may be many reasions for this i.e. the normal influx of people has stopped etc. However property prices in up state New York has 'rocketed' (estate agent speak for any price increase) but it would indicate, whilst not a flight to the countryside, a re-consideration of what people consider a priorety when deciding where to live. It may be short term, who knows.

[nigooner]

On 04/08/2020 at 22:03, stingray192 said:

There is several different markets in the north coast with  very different price points, mainly down to view, within the portstewart, portrush, Bushmills and portballintrae area, there is some very large houses with stunning views with prices around the £700,000- £1,000,000+ mark, these are nearly all holiday homes and most are only used occasionally, there is the high end apartment developments with top of the range kitchens, bathrooms etc again all with stunning views and some of these can be very large, these can vary from £400-£700+ and again are mainly used by weekenders or retirees, very few of these would ever be let out. Virtually none of these would have mortgages etc on them. The exception is probably currangate in Portrush, this ranged from£295k-£550k very high end apartments released last year, this was set up for the golf rental market, these are rented out by the night and start around £300 a night low season to £600+ a night high season.

another market round the north coast is the older more basic apartment developments, some with views some not, mainly priced from £120-£200k these are generally smaller and are bought for holiday homes or retired homes, there is literally several hundred of these and at a guess at least half of these are let out, some by the week for holiday makers, some by the month and the more basic ones are let out to students etc.

there is also a lot of student houses at the back of portstewart, some of these are let out as holiday lets in the summer and to students the rest of the year, these tend to be very basic and poorly maintained.

there is also all the people who live and work up that direction who are buying everything from starter homes to family houses and again the price point of these vary hugely depending on location

its probably the most complex market in Northern Ireland as it’s catering  to so many different buyers in such a small area especially Portstewart  to Portrush, I know a fair bit about the precrash market as I worked up there for 18 months and still know a lot of the agents and builders, obviously as I’m on this site I still have a keen interest in the property market as well

 

This has got to be one of the craziest examples of north coast house prices:

https://www.propertynews.com/property-for-sale/16-the-edgewater-portstewart-bt55-7rt/property/VEB80054-1-15416615/
 

£1m for a townhouse that is completely overlooked by a big apartment block. Nice views though.

[stingray192]

11 hours ago, nigooner said:

This has got to be one of the craziest examples of north coast house prices:

https://www.propertynews.com/property-for-sale/16-the-edgewater-portstewart-bt55-7rt/property/VEB80054-1-15416615/
 

£1m for a townhouse that is completely overlooked by a big apartment block. Nice views though.

I can never understand the attraction of this development, this one isn’t even the front of the development , the are being clever with the photography, there is townhouses in front of this, the only really desirable townhouses in this development is the four front ones, one of them was for sale at 1.4 million, for less than 2000 sq ft, it sold in less than a week, the majority of the apartments ( which is at the back of the site) have no sea view, the back ones go for around £300-400k, ones with views £500+ the two penthouses originally sold for over one million each, I don’t think any has ever came for resale, a friend has one of the apartments and says the management charges is over £2000 a year and they are not properly run

[Ausdave]

Not that long ago...

https://www.philiptweedie.com/extract/PORTSTEWART_26190_DOC_00.pdf

[2buyornot2buy]

 

Q1 transactions were a couple of percent lower than last year, there was still 4740 completions, the houses being agreed early this year didn’t actually complete until at least June , the market has been busy all year, several different mortgage broker friends say they have never been busier.

 

Hmrc property transaction figures are out

2020

Sept 2330

August 1680

July 1720

Down 20% year on year.

Safe to say your friend are probably busy doing more work because of rushing around but the actual completions are way down. Busy not making extra money. 

 

[stingray192]

A lot of houses agreed in June, July and August have still to complete, two close friends are mortgage brokers and both say they have never been as busy, one processed 135 mortgages in July, his normal is 15-20 

[stingray192]

I should add though that a lot of mortgage products have been withdrawn and first time buyers who typically make up about half the mortgage business are having to put down substantially more than they would of done last year 

[2buyornot2buy]

 

A lot of houses agreed in June, July and August have still to complete, two close friends are mortgage brokers and both say they have never been as busy, one processed 135 mortgages in July, his normal is 15-20 

Should be about 20000 transactions in October going by the mates output. Tell them I can recommend a conveyancer if its taking 16 weeks to complete. 

[BelfastVI]

 

Should be about 20000 transactions in October going by the mates output. Tell them I can recommend a conveyancer if its taking 16 weeks to complete. 

4 months is fairly standard for booking to completion.

We seen the same increase in bookings over the summer but that was just catch up from 2 months of hardly any. those completions ar thankfully happening now. will that continue- I have no idea.

[2buyornot2buy]

 

4 months is fairly standard for booking to completion.

We seen the same increase in bookings over the summer but that was just catch up from 2 months of hardly any. those completions ar thankfully happening now. will that continue- I have no idea.

16 weeks isn't average. 16 weeks is long. 8 -12 weeks is the average. 

[2buyornot2buy]

 

16 weeks isn't average. 16 weeks is long. 8 -12 weeks is the average. 

I suggest you put it out to tender BVI. Unless mortgage offers are falling through all over the place 8 -12 weeks is still ample time. 

[nigooner]

I have seen a mortgage broker on LinkedIn complaining that applications are being turned down for buyers that they would have expected to sail through, with no explanation from the lenders as to why. Reading the replies to their post, they weren’t the only one!

[2buyornot2buy]

 

I have seen a mortgage broker on LinkedIn complaining that applications are being turned down for buyers that they would have expected to sail through, with no explanation from the lenders as to why. Reading the replies to their post, they weren’t the only one!

That explains it. Chasing around to get an acceptance. Hearing the same thing on the radio. Brokers on the phone queue at 9 am on Wednesday to Bank A waiting on them opening up 100 applications at 85% LTV. Rinse and repeat. 

[BelfastVI]

 

16 weeks isn't average. 16 weeks is long. 8 -12 weeks is the average. 

In my experience 16 weeks is average for booking to completion for the houses we sell and this is pretty much the same over the last 20 years or so. Maybe our buyers are slow but I expect that to be industry standard. I don't know if there is data out there on this. 

If it is an existing house with no chain I expect your timescale may be correct.

I am coming from the new build sector and we generally release at around foundation stage. A buyer may have their own house to sell and that can take time to achieve. hopefully it all comes together in and around the construction completion timescale (obviously not before). So we normally set the target completion date and hopefully everything falls into place around that time. 

Edited October 26, 2020 by BelfastVI
typo

[2buyornot2buy]

 

In my experience 16 weeks is average for booking to completion for the houses we sell and this is pretty much the same over the last 20 years or so. Maybe our buyers are slow but I expect that to be industry standard. I don't know if there is data out there on this. 

If it is an existing house with no chain I expect your timescale may be correct.

I am coming from the new build sector and we generally release at around foundation stage. A buyer may have their own house to sell and that can take time to achieve. hopefully it all comes together in and around the construction completion timescale (obviously not before). So we normally set the target completion date and hopefully everything falls into place around that time. 

The average UK time is 8 -12 weeks. New build I'd expect to be at the lower end. You have less time for the valuation, no adverse survey results to deal with, mortgage products already choosen as you've had good warning and less complicated searches. 

I would also imaging the majority of your sales are chain free too BVI? 16 weeks really isn't standard. 

[BelfastVI]

 

The average UK time is 8 -12 weeks. New build I'd expect to be at the lower end. You have less time for the valuation, no adverse survey results to deal with, mortgage products already chosen as you've had good warning and less complicated searches. 

I would also imaging the majority of your sales are chain free too BVI? 16 weeks really isn't standard. 

Went over the sales on our largest site, over 250 dwellings. Those, at time of booking; Not subject to sale 47%, Subject to Sale 13%, Own house agreed 40%

Therefore those booking who owned a house =53%. Call it 50/50. It will differ on different sites depending on product and location.

Duration from reservation to completion on that site is averaging 5 months. 

To be honest this is not necessary the duration of conveyancing but more a product of when we release and sell the houses which is generally at foundation stage. If the market is going well the duration will be longer as the houses are reserved at foundation stage and it will take that length to complete. if the market is slow we may very well have the houses further advanced prior to booking and the duration to physical completion may well be shorter.

 

[2buyornot2buy]

 

Went over the sales on our largest site, over 250 dwellings. Those, at time of booking; Not subject to sale 47%, Subject to Sale 13%, Own house agreed 40%

Therefore those booking who owned a house =53%. Call it 50/50. It will differ on different sites depending on product and location.

Duration from reservation to completion on that site is averaging 5 months. 

To be honest this is not necessary the duration of conveyancing but more a product of when we release and sell the houses which is generally at foundation stage. If the market is going well the duration will be longer as the houses are reserved at foundation stage and it will take that length to complete. if the market is slow we may very well have the houses further advanced prior to booking and the duration to physical completion may well be shorter.

 

Conveyance from booking to completion should be 8 weeks or less on 47% of your transactions. Genuinely, if you're looking at 16 week AVERAGE for an actual converyance, with a 5 month window from reservation, I'd be having a KPI chat with your solicitor. That's a lot of time to tie cash up. If your largest site is 250 resi, I'd have a fair idea who your solicitors are. Remember, pay peanuts...

[JoeDavola]

Well all I can say is that I'm stunned at the prices houses are going on for, and selling.

Every few weeks it seems like I see something that's a 5 figure sum higher than I'd have thought possible a few weeks back.

House prices rising during a pandemic and partial shutdown of the economy. The demand, and evidently funding, must be there.

I have heard a few reports of increased numbers of people from mainland UK choosing to move to Northern Ireland to live - perhaps this is in part what's causing it i.e. increase in population density.

Either way, small unremarkable semis in the east are shifting for £200K+.

Here's an example of what I mean; just listed today...it doesn't seem like a lot of house for a quarter mill:

https://www.propertypal.com/14-norwood-drive-belmont-belfast/599303

The two people I know who are trying to sell are having no luck despite having lovely houses, but neither are trying to sell an East Belfast semi - which seems to shift very quick.

Apartments don't seem to be shifting as quick, especially city centre ones, which is completely understandable.

[stingray192]

 

Well all I can say is that I'm stunned at the prices houses are going on for, and selling.

Every few weeks it seems like I see something that's a 5 figure sum higher than I'd have thought possible a few weeks back.

House prices rising during a pandemic and partial shutdown of the economy. The demand, and evidently funding, must be there.

I have heard a few reports of increased numbers of people from mainland UK choosing to move to Northern Ireland to live - perhaps this is in part what's causing it i.e. increase in population density.

Either way, small unremarkable semis in the east are shifting for £200K+.

Here's an example of what I mean; just listed today...it doesn't seem like a lot of house for a quarter mill:

https://www.propertypal.com/14-norwood-drive-belmont-belfast/599303

The two people I know who are trying to sell are having no luck despite having lovely houses, but neither are trying to sell an East Belfast semi - which seems to shift very quick.

Apartments don't seem to be shifting as quick, especially city centre ones, which is completely understandable.

I agree some of the prices are now ridiculous, I sold my own house in July, the completion is December, by mutual arrangement, I know certain people insist competition ares within eight weeks but in my extensive experience this is never the case, it was sold in less than a week, I had 14 viewers in total , only three local, everyone was moving back home, the majority of the initial viewings were with relatives doing the viewing and doing FaceTime with the family , I was ambitious with the asking price and got away with it😜. I had absolutely no intention of moving before covid and only decided to move as a house came on the market that I always admired, although I never actually viewed it, I’ve bought a site instead as I can obviously build way cheaper and to a higher standard.

I’ve said from the start that I feel apartments in Belfast city centre especially will be affected and will drop in price and houses with gardens etc will rise , although with my experience of selling this time I’ve also found a lot of My viewers were still going to be employed in London etc but would be working mainly from home

I honestly feel the current rise is mainly due to people returning home, I know of three seperate families who have returned to Belfast from Dublin in the last few months, again they are all working remotely. 

[2buyornot2buy]

 

I agree some of the prices are now ridiculous, I sold my own house in July, the completion is December, by mutual arrangement, I know certain people insist competition ares within eight weeks but in my extensive experience this is never the case, it was sold in less than a week, I had 14 viewers in total , only three local, everyone was moving back home, the majority of the initial viewings were with relatives doing the viewing and doing FaceTime with the family , I was ambitious with the asking price and got away with it😜. I had absolutely no intention of moving before covid and only decided to move as a house came on the market that I always admired, although I never actually viewed it, I’ve bought a site instead as I can obviously build way cheaper and to a higher standard.

I’ve said from the start that I feel apartments in Belfast city centre especially will be affected and will drop in price and houses with gardens etc will rise , although with my experience of selling this time I’ve also found a lot of My viewers were still going to be employed in London etc but would be working mainly from home

I honestly feel the current rise is mainly due to people returning home, I know of three seperate families who have returned to Belfast from Dublin in the last few months, again they are all working remotely. 

Didn't you already build a house in Carrick? You're planning on building again?

[stingray192]

 

Didn't you already build a house in Carrick? You're planning on building again?

Yes, I’m building again, although I won’t start the site until spring next year, also keeping the part of the garden in my current house to build on at a later stage, so the house I’m building will be sold when the market is right  ,I will live in it for a good few years first,  at this point I may develop the site.

[2buyornot2buy]

 

Yes, I’m building again, although I won’t start the site until spring next year, also keeping the part of the garden in my current house to build on at a later stage, so the house I’m building will be sold when the market is right  ,I will live in it for a good few years first,  at this point I may develop the site.

You're not married are you?

[stingray192]

 

You're not married are you?

Strange question 😀 yes I’m married 😜

 

[2buyornot2buy]

 

Strange question 😀 yes I’m married 😜

 

I spent 7 months refurbishing and building an extension. OH would have an absolute fit if I suggested doing it again. 

Interesting on the moving home bit. Surprised there's that much demand for someone moving from Dublin to Carrick.