jiltedjen Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 i have never been a fan of keeping too much in cash, as the window to use that cash to buy distressed shares was always going to be small when they can trash the currency very quickly. To me its never been that worth the opportunity cost for the sake of safety of your savings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longgone Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 talk of citizens income now in the commons questions. ohh should i be worried about my savings hopefully 100k will still be worth a trolly of shopping. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patfig Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 7 minutes ago, longgone said: talk of citizens income now in the commons questions. ohh should i be worried about my savings hopefully 100k will still be worth a trolly of shopping. If that happens every one else will die Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longgone Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 1 minute ago, Patfig said: If that happens every one else will die indeed the pound is the basis of human life in this country. sometimes you need to think mechanically and then logically and then have the mental understanding to differentiate the repercussions of actions not just in mechanical financial cause and effect thinking   Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkins Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 47 minutes ago, jiltedjen said: they CANNOT have deflation in ASSETS. that would crash the system. Nikkei 225: Japan land prices: Japan: not collapsed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patfig Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 1 minute ago, Dorkins said: Nikkei 225: Japan land prices: Japan: not collapsed Mount Fuji graph Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andy T Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 What might they do over here realistically? Maybe HTB newbuilds tank in value, so gov pays compensation to the mortgage holders for the loss? Find some procedure that the retails banks didn't do properly, give all account holders some cash? Car finance mis-selling etc etc? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 45 minutes ago, Andy T said: What might they do over here realistically? Maybe HTB newbuilds tank in value, so gov pays compensation to the mortgage holders for the loss? Find some procedure that the retails banks didn't do properly, give all account holders some cash? Car finance mis-selling etc etc? The government won’t care if people lose money, only if they’re in danger of being evicted Help to pay the mortgage - no compensation for falls Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Spaniard Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 5 hours ago, Patfig said: Where's that Injun when you need him ( or her!) Only two pronouns? Is that enough these days? ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patfig Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 43 minutes ago, The Spaniard said: Only two pronouns? Is that enough these days? ? OMG are you one of my children picking me up on such things Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andy T Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 1 hour ago, scottbeard said: The government won’t care if people lose money, only if they’re in danger of being evicted Help to pay the mortgage - no compensation for falls not a matter of them caring though, just as an excuse to get people spending, as they did with ppi. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiltedjen Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 2 hours ago, Andy T said: What might they do over here realistically? Maybe HTB newbuilds tank in value, so gov pays compensation to the mortgage holders for the loss? Find some procedure that the retails banks didn't do properly, give all account holders some cash? Car finance mis-selling etc etc? some talk about tax refunds. which does make sense as then its fair and proportionate. not sure if just national insurance or some income tax. but to be honest the best free money is given to the most feckless as you know they will spend it straight away, hence any kind of credit card miss-selling or loan miss-selling is perfect. No point in giving money to sensible people as it wont get spent, maybe invested, but maybe not where you want it to be. For instance is they gave everyone £1000 i would stick in straight into gold or other assets, as effectively they have just devalued the £ by X amount Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiltedjen Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 2 hours ago, Dorkins said: Nikkei 225: Japan land prices: Japan: not collapsed Think about where the rest of the world was at the time though. Rest of the world had not even really started on their own mega bubbles since then, Also japan actually exports a lot and has some real value. Cant really compare that to our asset prices falling etc, for us it would crumble the system. They will throw fiat on a bonfire way before they let houses crash. You can still get good value as long as you are not 100% in cash. If you are, then too bad i guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkins Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 4 minutes ago, jiltedjen said: Think about where the rest of the world was at the time though. Rest of the world had not even really started on their own mega bubbles since then, Also japan actually exports a lot and has some real value. Cant really compare that to our asset prices falling etc, for us it would crumble the system. They will throw fiat on a bonfire way before they let houses crash. You can still get good value as long as you are not 100% in cash. If you are, then too bad i guess. Japan and the UK aren't so different, both highly developed societies which aren't dependent on exporting natural resources, have a decent manufacturing base and a large service sector. The system would survive deflation just as it survived inflation, both processes have winners and losers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiltedjen Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 have you seen the value of the £ lately? so that cash pile saved up suddenly is worth a lot less assets or commodities. Its fine if used to pile into the above, in time before they race away when measured in said fiat. But to sit on it is not a great idea. Any real threat of deflation will be met with more printing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longgone Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 9 minutes ago, jiltedjen said: have you seen the value of the £ lately? so that cash pile saved up suddenly is worth a lot less assets or commodities. Its fine if used to pile into the above, in time before they race away when measured in said fiat. But to sit on it is not a great idea. Any real threat of deflation will be met with more printing. you would think so, but without the ability for workers to pay the debt required to pay the extra on assets (houses) why would they go up ? wages would have to rise very substantially. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkins Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 31 minutes ago, jiltedjen said: have you seen the value of the £ lately? so that cash pile saved up suddenly is worth a lot less assets FTSE is down about a third in £ terms this year, that's more assets per £ not less. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiltedjen Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 (edited) 34 minutes ago, Dorkins said: FTSE is down about a third in £ terms this year, that's more assets per £ not less. yes but at some point the cash has to be converted to shares and there is a finite window of time to do that. The best purpose of cash is opportunity cost to buy distressed assets.  The government will support house prices no matter what as our very banking system is built upon their value, and the value secured against them, no matter how out of whack that actually is. So if your sat with a big cash pile great, but sitting on it waiting for it to drop in value violently is not a great plan. If you want a house you could go step 1. buy shares step 2. shares rise step 3. sell shares step 4. buy house instead of step 1. stay in cash step 2. cash losses value step 3. houses go up in £ as the government was forced to trash the £ step 4. now your cash pile buys half as much house as you could when you started. We did have deflation for a while as all countries were trying to trash their cash at the same time, but the quicker acting nations will trash their fiat first to get ahead of the game as the BOE have already done.  Edited March 18, 2020 by jiltedjen Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiltedjen Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 56 minutes ago, longgone said:  wages would have to rise very substantially. any minor uplift in workers pay % is mirrored by an even greater % rise in house prices due to the leverage involved. and of course those who are paid more get higher rises, so if you dont earn much to start with house prices get even further away. Its brutal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longgone Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 57 minutes ago, jiltedjen said: any minor uplift in workers pay % is mirrored by an even greater % rise in house prices due to the leverage involved. and of course those who are paid more get higher rises, so if you dont earn much to start with house prices get even further away. Its brutal. worse for renters if rents go up too. this thing is not going to get better or clearer for a while plenty time yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiltedjen Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 6 minutes ago, longgone said: worse for renters if rents go up too. this thing is not going to get better or clearer for a while plenty time yet. Regardless of whatever the £ does, rents are always as high as the market can bear, which is always a bit nasty. as rents are always high, unless your earn a lot more than the average. I got out of the rent trap with investments. now it’s looking like my mortgage is going to be inflated away. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longgone Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 39 minutes ago, jiltedjen said: Regardless of whatever the £ does, rents are always as high as the market can bear, which is always a bit nasty. as rents are always high, unless your earn a lot more than the average. I got out of the rent trap with investments. now it’s looking like my mortgage is going to be inflated away. im glad you know what its looking like. i would not look past further than a week in this climate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longgone Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59826345 Santander: Bank gave £130m to customers in Christmas blunder  However, it was not clear how the banks would respond if their customers had already spent the money, meaning returning it would push them into overdraft. Santander indicated that it may contact people directly to get the money back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shlomo Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 6 hours ago, longgone said: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59826345 Santander: Bank gave £130m to customers in Christmas blunder  However, it was not clear how the banks would respond if their customers had already spent the money, meaning returning it would push them into overdraft. Santander indicated that it may contact people directly to get the money back. You are back, where have you been?  Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longgone Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 8 minutes ago, shlomo said: You are back, where have you been? Â This forum is depressing its cost me a lot. Best to stay away most of the time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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