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Looks like some of my past predictions on here may turn into reality, should I be happy or sad?


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This is naturally quite a bearish forum, and I have made my fair share of bearish comments over the years.

 

Should I be happy or sad?

 

Right now I am sad.

 

But actually if myself and my nearest and dearest survive, I think we could be looking forward to a great future in 1 years time.

 

I think in 1 year:

 

-We will re-assess Offshoring of jobs

-House prices will be lower

-We will have to pull together as a community

-We will realise we can no longer just live on credit

-We will be less materialistic

-We will re-assess our current open borders policy

 

Edited by reddog
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I think your 1 year predictions are miles off the mark. I fully expect the intergenerational conflict to run for at least the whole of this decade and probably into the next.

The under 45s aren't the ones who need to be less materialistic and less credit-dependent, they generally aren't the ones with big mortgages and when you don't own a house it significantly reduces the rate at which you accumulate possessions and spend on home improvements. In terms of pulling together as a community, under 45s aren't the ones NIMBYing every attempt to build housing and cracking a big smile at every 'house prices SOAR' Express/Mail headline.

I don't think there is any reason to expect the over 50s to stop putting the boot in. Seeing their own children and grandchildren struggling with stagnant wages and high housing costs wasn't enough to stop it, so I don't think anything will be. They want to see the young suffer, and the political class are happy to enact this through policy because high house prices are good for their friends and relatives in finance.

Edited by Dorkins
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53 minutes ago, reddog said:

But actually if myself and my nearest and dearest survive, I think we could be looking forward to a great future in 1 years time.

 

I think in 1 year:

 

-We will re-assess Offshoring of jobs

-House prices will be lower

-We will have to pull together as a community

-We will realise we can no longer just live on credit

-We will be less materialistic

-We will re-assess our current open borders policy

The drama!

of course you will all survive - this s not the great plague ! 

House prices will not be lower - sellers will just hold on until this has passed

Community? have you seen the bun fights in supermarkets? 

It will not affect materialism or credit
The open border policy has already been reassessed hence the election result - those who support uncontrolled mass immigration will hang on to that dogma - terror  attacks have no altered it so a germ will certainly not do so sadly

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6 minutes ago, richmondtw said:

those who support uncontrolled mass immigration

There is almost no-one that supports "uncontrolled mass immigration". We have lower immigration than many other countries world-wide.

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22 minutes ago, richmondtw said:

House prices will not be lower - sellers will just hold on until this has passed

 

I am afraid I have to strongly disagree with this statement. With the de-industrialisation of the UK over the last decades, there are very few professional jobs and careers. Many people now are self employed, many reliant on the housing "industry" plumbers, builders, etc.

Many people are living hand to mouth, with large mortgages, prestige car PCP plans (because I am worth it), etc, etc.

The world economy is basically grinding to a halt. We are very likely going to see another banking crisis.

Even if people get a few months mortgage deferral, it is not going to change the fact than a great many people are going to see their earnings evaporate, but have a lot of debt.

If the banks are feeling pain, which they will be, badly in the coming weeks, they are not big cuddly animals and many people are going to default and need cash.

Expect the price of cars and big ticket items to crater. Expect many forced sellers in the housing market. Not today, not tomorrow but before the end of this year. 

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21 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

There is almost no-one that supports "uncontrolled mass immigration". We have lower immigration than many other countries world-wide.

I'd say there are 48% of the population who would be delighted at this. As a punishment to the 52%.

See 'the other thread' for examples of hordes of non-EU immigrant gloating, and Schengen punishment Rejoining.

They love it

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24 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

There is almost no-one that supports "uncontrolled mass immigration". We have lower immigration than many other countries world-wide.

I'd say there are 48% of the population who would be delighted at this. As a punishment to the 52%.

See 'the other thread' for examples of hordes of non-EU immigrant gloating, and Schengen punishment Rejoining.

They love it

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, bubbleturbo said:

 

Expect the price of cars and big ticket items to crater. Expect many forced sellers in the housing market. Not today, not tomorrow but before the end of this year. 

Who would be signing up for that new BMW PCP deal now?

 

PCP deals could actually be a big problem (possibly deserves another thread), people can't afford to take on a new deal, and yet also cannot afford the "balloon" payment to get out of the PCP trap.  Its a good think cycling is in fashion!!

Edited by reddog
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5 hours ago, reddog said:

I think in 1 year:

-We will re-assess Offshoring of jobs

-House prices will be lower

-We will have to pull together as a community

-We will realise we can no longer just live on credit

-We will be less materialistic

-We will re-assess our current open borders policy

Those two (re-thinking offshoring and being less materialistic) I think will definitely happen.

We don't have an open borders policy, except the enforced one with the EU that's about to close.

The other comments, I'm not sure.  Maybe, maybe not.  

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TPTB bake HPI into the system, the intention being that it would continue with all the negative consequences for inequality and injustice...and only an event very damaging for everyone was going to break this.  I think it will be unemployment or fear of unemployment that will drive sentiment and prices down....

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15 minutes ago, Ghostly said:

By what mechanism do you think house prices will be lower in a year?  Just from the potential collapse of businesses due to Covid?

Nice wishlist though - I'm not so sure it will happen.

Supply and demand

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5 hours ago, Huggy said:

I'd say there are 48% of the population who would be delighted at this. As a punishment to the 52%.

See 'the other thread' for examples of hordes of non-EU immigrant gloating, and Schengen punishment Rejoining.

They love it

Delighted with what? As I said, I don't know anyone who supports "uncontrolled mass immigration". We've had open borders with European countries for decades. That could have continued as it worked for decades. There are many other countries in the world with higher immigration.

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Firstly, pandemics are not new, what's shocking is not that this is happening but that the financial economy is so vulnerable to it.

In that respect I'm not bothered by what's happening now.

I have been very bothered by the economic f#ckwittery of the previous 8 years or so.

All I see now is a necessary correction to prior complacency. All the people I know who think it is a terrible unprecedented disaster seem to have big mortgages, as far as I can tell.

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1 hour ago, Si1 said:

Firstly, pandemics are not new, what's shocking is not that this is happening but that the financial economy is so vulnerable to it.

In that respect I'm not bothered by what's happening now.

I have been very bothered by the economic f#ckwittery of the previous 8 years or so.

All I see now is a necessary correction to prior complacency. All the people I know who think it is a terrible unprecedented disaster seem to have big mortgages, as far as I can tell.

I have been concerned at the fragility of our modern world for some time:  "Just in time" delivery...everything made in China...everything bought on credit...you have people in Wigan borrowing money on credit cards to buy jumpers made in Bangladesh and shipped half way around the world to be in the shops the day before they go shopping, jumpers that until 10 years ago were MADE IN WIGAN and bought by those same people with wages from those jobs.

It really is the world gone mad.

I really, REALLY hope this is what lays these risks bare and creates true change.

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House prices are going to collapse, this is why:

- Mortgage issuers are going broke, especially those related to BTL (MTRO.L, LLOY.L)

- REITS are collapsing, both commercial (LAND.L, BLND.L, INTU.L) and residential (PRSR.L). There is clearly awareness in the investors community about the value of real estate.

- Tenants cannot move if they are being self isolated. If your BTL flat/house loses the tennant... Good luck...

- You cannot mortgage yourself to the hilt if you are not creditworthy enough. Loosening credit now would make things even worse if people lose their jobs.

- If elderly people do die (let’s hope it’s not the case), that puts houses in an illiquid market.

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9 hours ago, reddog said:

This is naturally quite a bearish forum, and I have made my fair share of bearish comments over the years.

 

Should I be happy or sad?

 

 

 

Sad.


Sad for society

Sad for our children

Sad for our parents

Sad for the people with no money and/or debts

Sad for mankind.

 

There is no joy in any of this.  I said we'd see a massive collapse, the system is so unstable is was inevitable.  Is there any joy in watching this, hell no, just sadness.

 

I sincerely with everyone well, including the loony trolls.

 

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Don't the government need house prices to be high to reflect a housing stock worth so many billions of pounds? Even more so when piling up debt in a crisis?

We're all paying for this crisis - it should be the corporates forking out. They want a global capitalism that screws most people over. They want movement of people. They caused this.

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5 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Sad.


Sad for society

Sad for our children

Sad for our parents

Sad for the people with no money and/or debts

Sad for mankind.

 

There is no joy in any of this.  I said we'd see a massive collapse, the system is so unstable is was inevitable.  Is there any joy in watching this, hell no, just sadness.

 

I sincerely with everyone well, including the loony trolls.

 

Sad with a smirk for any borrow to letters about to be screwed over. It's their turn.

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1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

There is no joy in any of this.  I said we'd see a massive collapse, the system is so unstable is was inevitable.  Is there any joy in watching this, hell no, just sadness.

+1

The bad guys never go down on their own.  A lot of good people are going to be collateral damage in this collapse.  And that will be awful.  For all of us.

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10 hours ago, richmondtw said:

The drama!

of course you will all survive - this s not the great plague ! 

House prices will not be lower - sellers will just hold on until this has passed

Community? have you seen the bun fights in supermarkets? 

It will not affect materialism or credit
The open border policy has already been reassessed hence the election result - those who support uncontrolled mass immigration will hang on to that dogma - terror  attacks have no altered it so a germ will certainly not do so sadly

Sellers were struggling before this happened, so what difference would holding on make? :lol:

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4 hours ago, Si1 said:

Firstly, pandemics are not new, what's shocking is not that this is happening but that the financial economy is so vulnerable to it.

In that respect I'm not bothered by what's happening now.

I have been very bothered by the economic f#ckwittery of the previous 8 years or so.

All I see now is a necessary correction to prior complacency. All the people I know who think it is a terrible unprecedented disaster seem to have big mortgages, as far as I can tell.

:lol: Do they post on MSE?

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13 hours ago, richmondtw said:

The drama!

of course you will all survive - this s not the great plague ! 

House prices will not be lower - sellers will just hold on until this has passed

Community? have you seen the bun fights in supermarkets? 

It will not affect materialism or credit
The open border policy has already been reassessed hence the election result - those who support uncontrolled mass immigration will hang on to that dogma - terror  attacks have no altered it so a germ will certainly not do so sadly

350 Italians disagree with you today. 

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11 hours ago, Burbujista said:

House prices are going to collapse, this is why:

- Mortgage issuers are going broke, especially those related to BTL (MTRO.L, LLOY.L)

- REITS are collapsing, both commercial (LAND.L, BLND.L, INTU.L) and residential (PRSR.L). There is clearly awareness in the investors community about the value of real estate.

- Tenants cannot move if they are being self isolated. If your BTL flat/house loses the tennant... Good luck...

- You cannot mortgage yourself to the hilt if you are not creditworthy enough. Loosening credit now would make things even worse if people lose their jobs.

- If elderly people do die (let’s hope it’s not the case), that puts houses in an illiquid market.

100% Lots at people at work saw the recent Halifax and Rightmove reports and seem to think this is going to be a great year for house prices - it’s like they have been brainwashed!

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There are landlords that rely on the income from tenants, you could say it is their living wage.....how do they expect their tenant to pay the 'living wage' if they have lost their own living wage...... Domino effect.?

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  • 415 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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