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I would like to clear up some confusion about the term 'Bull'. To qualify as a bull, a person must satisfy two criteria. Firstly they must believe that the market will rise. Secondly their belief must be linked to a rational thought process.

For this reason, people who still believe in a rising house market are called Crash Dummies rather than bulls.

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I would like to clear up some confusion about the term 'Bull'. To qualify as a bull, a person must satisfy two criteria. Firstly they must believe that the market will rise. Secondly their belief must be linked to a rational thought process.

For this reason, people who still believe in a rising house market are called Crash Dummies rather than bulls.

"I believe it is entirely possible that the politicians and central bankers of the economies where there has been a housing bubble over the last few years will some time this year decide that 'moderate' inflation is (compared to deflation) the lesser of 2 evils and they will turn open the money taps by reducing interest rates.

House Prices will therefore start rising again.

Whether or not they can subsequently keep even the hedonically adjusted inflation figures 'moderate' is an open question."

Would that argument make me a Bull or a Dummy?

(And actually I am neither, I Sold To Rent 18 months ago. :P )

Edited by ajh

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I believe it is entirely possible that the politicians and central bankers of the economies where there has been a housing bubble over the last few years will decide that 'moderate' inflation is (compared to deflation) the lesser of 2 evils and turn open the money taps by reducing interest rates again.

Whether or not they can keep even the hedonically adjusted inflation figures 'moderate' is an open question.

Would that argument make me a Bull or a Dummy?

(And actually I am neither, I Sold To Rent 18 months ago. :P )

Why devalue the currency when more and more of our goods are being produced over seas?

Wouldn't that serve to exacerbate the trade deficit?

How does inflating your way out of debt work across exchange rates?

Why would I make investments quoted in a devaluing currency?

Trying to inflate our way out of debt makes us less competitive and simply moves more new job creation to the emerging economies. Does it not?

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Why devalue the currency when more and more of our goods are being produced over seas?

Wouldn't that serve to exacerbate the trade deficit?

How does inflating your way out of debt work across exchange rates?

Why would I make investments quoted in a devaluing currency?

Trying to inflate our way out of debt makes us less competitive and simply moves more new job creation to the emerging economies. Does it not?

Yes I'm sure you're right. Inflating our way out of debt is probably far more complicated than we realise. And if possible, it might cause bigger problems than it solves.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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