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What's your estimate of the real number of UK coronavirus infections?


Si1

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As per title. One of the chief scientists said 5000-10000 a few days ago. Make that estimate 10000-20000 now. That's 0.02% of the population if my maths is right, more or less.

My instinct, and seeing the proportion of politicians, sportsmen who seem to be getting positive diagnoses of it, is that the real rate is at least an order of magnitude or more higher than that in the wider community.

Thoughts?

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I personally believe this virus has been around longer than officially stated and as described in the media narrative.

I now know of 2 people who had Pneumonia (one severe) after attending a conference I also attended in the US in November. There were plenty of Chinese visitors there, so who know who past on what to who in any direction.

I don’t fully buy the Patient Zero Story, as whilst they may have tested people who can really know who patient Zero really was? Could the named Patient Zero have caught it off others who prior to that had no symptoms? Certainly that is possible.

 

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24 minutes ago, Si1 said:

As per title. One of the chief scientists said 5000-10000 a few days ago. Make that estimate 10000-20000 now. That's 0.02% of the population if my maths is right, more or less.

My instinct, and seeing the proportion of politicians, sportsmen who seem to be getting positive diagnoses of it, is that the real rate is at least an order of magnitude or more higher than that in the wider community.

Thoughts?

The Mail claim that sportspeople have an deficient immune system (along with a lot of flying)...thats why it seems as if they're dropping like flies..

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-8110713/Coronavirus-UK-footballers-SITTING-DUCKS-disease.html

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1 minute ago, Dave Beans said:

The Mail claim that sportspeople have an deficient immune system (along with a lot of flying)...thats why it seems as if they're dropping like flies..

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-8110713/Coronavirus-UK-footballers-SITTING-DUCKS-disease.html

There is some truth in that, but essentially you have the be overtraining.

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5 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

There is some truth in that, but essentially you have the be overtraining.

By this stage in the season they do seem a bit knackered. Part of the fun of watching it, seeing brilliant sportsmen make mistakes through mental and physical fatigue.

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Have many politicians, sportsmen and other famous people received positive diagnoses?

https://nypost.com/2020/03/13/all-the-celebrities-athletes-and-public-figures-diagnosed-with-coronavirus/

I think some people may be lumping together those who have tested positive with those who are isolating as a precautionary measure.

 

26 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

I personally believe this virus has been around longer than officially stated and as described in the media narrative...

 Could the named Patient Zero have caught it off others who prior to that had no symptoms? Certainly that is possible.

If the virus was spreading during the pre-Patient Zero phase, wouldn't that require either:

1) It wasn't transmitted to any elderly or vulnerable people

2) It was transmitted by recluses to other recluses

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I personally think it is in the hundreds of thousands - perhaps more - and I may be one of them. We just aren't testing people - but London seems full of people with awful dry coughs.

In my corner of my large London office this week one guy has been off with a fever since last Friday, the woman who sits opposite him was coughing with a harsh dry cough all day yesterday and the day before and was off today, another person who sits in the vicinity was unwell for two days, came back yesterday (not their normal self) and was off today with a fever and another team member went sick today. 

And this is in a small team office area of about 25 people.

I have been boosting my immune system for weeks as I had seen this all potentially coming - high strength vitamin C and D, elderberry syrup, curcumin capsules, turmeric shots and probiotic yoghurts etc etc. I got a mild dry throat and mouth ulcers two days ago - gargled with colloidal silver and its all gone.

So I wait and see - but I am concerned! Am I a spreader, or immune or one of the ones getting mild symptoms you barely notice or am I on the verge of something bad? Or maybe its all an odd coincidence

 

 

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1 hour ago, Si1 said:

As per title. One of the chief scientists said 5000-10000 a few days ago. Make that estimate 10000-20000 now. That's 0.02% of the population if my maths is right, more or less.

My instinct, and seeing the proportion of politicians, sportsmen who seem to be getting positive diagnoses of it, is that the real rate is at least an order of magnitude or more higher than that in the wider community.

Thoughts?

But you don't KNOW what PROPORTION of sportsmen are getting it.  You just know the handful of names that crop up on the news, and that a single MP has it.

Given how many more people a politician shakes hands with in their average week compared to the average office worker I'm not surprised one of them has it.  Ditto football players who work in stadia exposed to 20,000 people, travel around a lot and physically touch co-workers.

If the chief scientist says 10,000 then I'll go with his estimate until he gives me a better one.

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4 hours ago, Si1 said:

As per title. One of the chief scientists said 5000-10000 a few days ago. Make that estimate 10000-20000 now. That's 0.02% of the population if my maths is right, more or less.

My instinct, and seeing the proportion of politicians, sportsmen who seem to be getting positive diagnoses of it, is that the real rate is at least an order of magnitude or more higher than that in the wider community.

Thoughts?

I'm interested to know whether this virus (or any virus?) Can be carried and spread without symptoms in some people. I wonder if millions of people already have it without knowing. I've been feeling really wiped out for a few weeks.... Hmmm, I wonder...

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6 hours ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

I personally believe this virus has been around longer than officially stated and as described in the media narrative.

I now know of 2 people who had Pneumonia (one severe) after attending a conference I also attended in the US in November. There were plenty of Chinese visitors there, so who know who past on what to who in any direction.

I don’t fully buy the Patient Zero Story, as whilst they may have tested people who can really know who patient Zero really was? Could the named Patient Zero have caught it off others who prior to that had no symptoms? Certainly that is possible.

 

My own personal experience this winter mirrors this. If it wasnt Coronavirus then there is a particularly viscous form of flu doing the rounds that should also be in the news.

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given how quickly it doubles, and how long people can have it without symptoms

it would stand to reason that say in an office environment the same inflection curve would fit.

London is a shite place to be given the situation packed living conditions, mass use of public transport. at least youth is a saving grace I suppose. 

But it also means it’s only 3-4 weeks before some hospitals are overwhelmed. 

I think for each confined case there’s probably 30 additional unconfirmed cases, and it’s spreading quickly to every group of people, every work place, every nursing home as we speak. 

When is the peak? could be very late in the year 

 

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6 hours ago, Kosmin said:

Have many politicians, sportsmen and other famous people received positive diagnoses?

https://nypost.com/2020/03/13/all-the-celebrities-athletes-and-public-figures-diagnosed-with-coronavirus/

I think some people may be lumping together those who have tested positive with those who are isolating as a precautionary measure.

 

If the virus was spreading during the pre-Patient Zero phase, wouldn't that require either:

1) It wasn't transmitted to any elderly or vulnerable people

2) It was transmitted by recluses to other recluses

Most of the people at the show were under 55, and a lot of home workers and people who live in computer rooms. So definitely not the community that would spread things quickest or necessary expose the lethality quickly. Anyway I am not saying it was exactly COVID19, but quite possibly similar or related. We are only talking a difference here of under 6 weeks, not enough time to register any medical impact at scale.

I think the scientists should do some wider testing as either similar things have occurred before or they have the wrong patient zero.

It is very easy for data to not to get picked up.

Most would just say it was just flu, and even if someone dies suspicions may not be aroused immediately-look at Harold Shipman.

 

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I'd go with about 100,000. As of a week ago, it's estimated for example that Iran had about 2 million cases and similarly you have to treat the figures coming out of China with great suspicion. 

It's clearly been circulating among the UK population for months, just like the US.  The US particularly is in serious trouble, their health system is a joke (millions of people uninsured) and the testing there has been utterly pathetic. Not to mention the hours people work there and how difficult it can be to take time off. 
 

 

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100,000 seems a reasonable working figure.  So the reality on the ground is each office block, floor of big office  school, college, big church, night club, train, aeroplane, superstore etc. has 1 case.  So if we continue attending all these place they will have 5-6 in 7 days time, 28 in a fortnight & saturation in 4 weeks.

My workplace had asked us all to keep attending the office while remote capacity is enhanced.

Not impressed.  We should have 20% of staff remote ongoing to stress test, get everyone accustomed & have a cohort who are relatively less infected in the event of a rapid spread in an office.

I think I'm going to suggest that the London office reject our head office instructions.  They have been set by stubborn old men in a small city who don't trust their staff & are used to getting their own way.

Mutiny in effect.

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Everyone talks about the US health system being a joke, saying ‘oh my god even a test costs X amount! Isn’t that horrific?’

well yes, but that’s viewed from a heavily taxed UK citizens point of view where we don’t have much money around to contemplate spending big money on medical stuff

your forgetting that most Americans don’t pay anywhere near as much tax, and actually they can afford it. much more flush than us.

much much closer to capitalism than in the UK, where a lot of people can get rich in American ‘the American dream’ at the cost of the less able in society having no care 

You can’t judge the American system with English eyes. 

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14 minutes ago, jiltedjen said:

your forgetting that most Americans don’t pay anywhere near as much tax, and actually they can afford it. much more flush than us.

I am not sure that is correct Jen.  Don't forget that they pay very high property taxes in the US that make our Council Taxes look like a bargain.

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18 minutes ago, jiltedjen said:

Everyone talks about the US health system being a joke, saying ‘oh my god even a test costs X amount! Isn’t that horrific?’

well yes, but that’s viewed from a heavily taxed UK citizens point of view where we don’t have much money around to contemplate spending big money on medical stuff

your forgetting that most Americans don’t pay anywhere near as much tax, and actually they can afford it. much more flush than us.

much much closer to capitalism than in the UK, where a lot of people can get rich in American ‘the American dream’ at the cost of the less able in society having no care 

You can’t judge the American system with English eyes. 

There is no doubt that the quality of healthcare in the US is very high but only if you can afford it. 

Their healthcare system is a joke, it's too focused on profit rather than treating patients and this has perverse outcomes, like millions of people avoiding treatment because they're ininsured and even many who are insured get a subpar service dependent on copayments.

Healthcare spending makes up about twice as much of GDP than other similarly wealthy countries like Germany. I mean the US spend more on healthcare than any other developed nation in the world, yet they have outcomes like these. I don't know how anyone can deny that these problems are systemic. 

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25 minutes ago, jiltedjen said:

Everyone talks about the US health system being a joke, saying ‘oh my god even a test costs X amount! Isn’t that horrific?’

well yes, but that’s viewed from a heavily taxed UK citizens point of view where we don’t have much money around to contemplate spending big money on medical stuff

your forgetting that most Americans don’t pay anywhere near as much tax, and actually they can afford it. much more flush than us.

much much closer to capitalism than in the UK, where a lot of people can get rich in American ‘the American dream’ at the cost of the less able in society having no care 

You can’t judge the American system with English eyes. 

This is incorrect

The Rich have insurance and don’t pay anyway

The Poor are uninsured and - usually - just suffer and die. The US don’t even have sick leave like we do - it’s deducted from holiday and/or unpaid

Now what’s happening is poor people in the US will go into work even with Covid 19 and spread it to others. The US lack of social care has unwittingly made their country a death trap to themselves 

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3 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

This is incorrect

The Rich have insurance and don’t pay anyway

The Poor are uninsured and - usually - just suffer and die. The US don’t even have sick leave like we do - it’s deducted from holiday and/or unpaid

Now what’s happening is poor people in the US will go into work even with Covid 19 and spread it to others. The US lack of social care has unwittingly made their country a death trap to themselves 

And many only get 2 weeks a year ! When all this pans outs it will expose the inequalities in US society, possibly the UK too.

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4 hours ago, Sausage said:

I'm interested to know whether this virus (or any virus?) Can be carried and spread without symptoms in some people. I wonder if millions of people already have it without knowing. I've been feeling really wiped out for a few weeks.... Hmmm, I wonder...

Exactly my experience too.

Three of us work together, we have a decent amount of space. I'm the healthiest by a very long way and the other two also have "underlying health issues."  I'm the oldest.

In a local shop yesterday this was under discussion and the owner claimed he'd already had it, he'd visited China earlier  in the year.

A guy I know in another local shop is convinced it's man made and that it's a deliberate "cull". I'll be working much of the time from home soon unless I'm "culled". It's being set up this coming week.

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You only have to look at the rate of spread in Spain and Italy to realise that if this had been here for any length of time then it would have easily spread and been visible, especially if people were not taking the precautions they are now.

The case rate increase appears to be about 30% per day.

 

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