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If lots of oldies start popping their clogs, supply of family homes will increase. Vendors might want to drop prices to get quick sales. Emergency rates will mean even cheaper mortgages.

Have I missed anything?

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Credit markets already fubar and being covertly propped. No room for CBs to manoeuvre as IRs too low in the first place. Bubbles in houses and shares (not in shares anymore). S24 shafting stoopid overleveraged landlords.

In fact, if a LL hasn't deleveraged by now, really it's just all over.

 

Edited by Si1
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The very concept of 'money' ceases to mean anything as the derivative bets upon insurance on derivatives collapse.

Bread goes to £5 a loaf, then £50 then £100,000

 

I fully expect to be labouring in a field this time next year.

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1 hour ago, Sausage said:

If lots of oldies start popping their clogs, supply of family homes will increase. Vendors might want to drop prices to get quick sales. Emergency rates will mean even cheaper mortgages.

Have I missed anything?

Greed?

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I'm thinking of those FTB's relying on Dad (BMD) retiring this year and taking his pension. The FTB's flat deposit is coming from the 25% tax free cash that Dad can claim.

But Dad's white-faced at how his pension pot has dropped in the last three weeks. He's now decided to stay on at work for another year and hopes to God his pension pot makes back some of his lost money when that damn virus subsides.

"But Dad!", says the lad, "What about all those Carnival shares you bought after your mini-cruise? And the Stocks and Shares ISA you've been saving into for me?"

"Sit down, son..."

 

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Agreed with the above posts. You'd think that this could be it for house prices especially in the SE. On the other hand this could be a 2-3 month blip once Corona is peaked. Nobody knows. It could linger on all year. Mutate even and come back next winter. As for the effect on the markets and economy well we all knew we had an asset price bubble from the last lot of QE and emergency actions 2007 onwards, those measures may not work this time, not so many tools in the chest? I don't know. Not after last time, they will try to prop it up at all costs, you can see that in the way they are handling the Corona crisis, trying to keep business going and life as normal as possible when they should be locking towns down like Italy

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4 minutes ago, bear.getting.old said:

Agreed with the above posts. You'd think that this could be it for house prices especially in the SE. On the other hand this could be a 2-3 month blip once Corona is peaked. Nobody knows. It could linger on all year. Mutate even and come back next winter. As for the effect on the markets and economy well we all knew we had an asset price bubble from the last lot of QE and emergency actions 2007 onwards, those measures may not work this time, not so many tools in the chest? I don't know. Not after last time, they will try to prop it up at all costs, you can see that in the way they are handling the Corona crisis, trying to keep business going and life as normal as possible when they should be locking towns down like Italy

I think it's a pin. The bubble(s) depended on belief and credit to carry on inflating.

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Covid19 will damage more businesses than people.  The result is going to be a massive kill in demand (no point getting an insane mortgage if you've been made redundant and had to take a lower paying job).  Printing lots does nothing to stimulate demand, in fact it'll make it worse when the Zimbabwe charade is recognised.  Forget Corbyns socialist venezuela, Boris's queues for food are going to be awesome!

 

A lot of indebted BTL are going to realise they are sitting on debt not and 'investment' and the banks will make their margin call. Once pessimism sets in, the cash rich will hold out for distressed sales.  You can hear the crying going 'we need help to sell our shitbox for £500K, cos that's what its worth!'  Banks will then find the new equilibrium (their losses wiped out by BoE)

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Quote

 

Quote

Imagine if you'd just paid WAY over the odds for a shiny HTB newbuild.

 

 

I'd personally be gutted, but 99% of home buyers have no thought about finance at all, and wouldn't understand the magnitude of the amount of money they have spent, let alone the current situation on the economy and future of the mortgage debt

Edited by bear.getting.old
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I was expecting to get ripped apart for the tone of my post! I've had 20+ years of being treated like a second class citizen, patronized for not being able to afford a house, asked if I can get a better/second job/asked I've managed to save a deposit. Even evicted whilst wife was pregnant and youngest was 2. 

If anyone ends up babkrupt or living with family because they list their house I don't care. You made your choices and I made them. We all live with the consequences.

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1 minute ago, Sausage said:

I was expecting to get ripped apart for the tone of my post! I've had 20+ years of being treated like a second class citizen, patronized for not being able to afford a house, asked if I can get a better/second job/asked I've managed to save a deposit. Even evicted whilst wife was pregnant and youngest was 2. 

If anyone ends up babkrupt or living with family because they list their house I don't care. You made your choices and I made them. We all live with the consequences.

+1  I have lost my sense of mercy for a lot of folks here. As you said, they made their choice:

Contractor friends stung with the consequences of IR35, amazing how many have leveraged themselves and will struggle to pay down their debt.

Amateur BTL LL can't sell on RM or through EA, now resorting to plea selling on Facebook (my buyer has let me down after 4 months because they can't get the mortgage for my over priced sh*tbox waaa waaaa)

Portfolio LL friend (not really friend, but seems to hang around my gym more on his phone than on machines), complaining evictions are being slowed down by 'lefty social courts' and his repair bills are stopping him getting a Porsche Caymen

 

 

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39 minutes ago, Trump Invective said:

https://www.buyassociation.co.uk/2020/03/13/covid-19-predictions-for-house-prices-and-the-uk-housing-market/

No crash unfortunately, folks. Just more favourable borrowing terms, cheap money, bubble expansion.

Desperate straw clutching methinks.

Comparing to swine flu back in 2009 doesn't fly either, that mainly affected children and stock markets around the world didn't crash as a consequence. This is different this time.

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1 hour ago, Trump Invective said:

https://www.buyassociation.co.uk/2020/03/13/covid-19-predictions-for-house-prices-and-the-uk-housing-market/

No crash unfortunately, folks. Just more favourable borrowing terms, cheap money, bubble expansion.

"We specialise in bringing together investors and property developers at the earliest stages of development, identifying and building investment opportunities and funding renovations and new-builds throughout major UK cities and towns. Using our unique position in the property market and over 14 years’ experience, we can help you access some of the best property developments and unique opportunities before anyone else."

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  • 418 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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