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Will Corona virus cause a house price crash?

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14 hours ago, crumblingcon said:

If this comes good for you big time now, would it of been a waste of time?  Maybe the wait   will enhance things for you even more if you end up getting what you want.

I know through personal experience where you think you are living in bad or even good times for that matter, and one event can change that perspective over night

I have little complaints about the last 12 years other than the actions of the establishment have shown them to little more than an organised crime gang.  This cannot be allowed to continue and it is potentially leading down a very dark path.  My only concern now is for my children and their future, I am trying to secure that as best I can. 

I have no regrets about not buying a house in the UK since 2008, none whatsoever.  Not owning a house led to much greater opportunities and much greater reward. Some people will never get that but it's horses for courses I guess. 

The events of the last 20 years have left an indelible mark on me and myself and my children will not forget or forgive the people in charge.

 

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19 hours ago, LandOfConfusion said:

Well looking at the latest Land Reg' statistics it so far doesn't look like prices are falling:

oSBVMDp.png

That said the data range is Jan 2010 - Mar 2020, so there might have been a downturn since but if that's the case then it's certainly not happening around here (SE England).

 

3 month lag, maybe more right now, you're seeing the short lived boris bounce there.

Plus they are lying ****s

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10 minutes ago, iamnumerate said:

What about council tax etc?  How do you pay that?  I have known in the past some BTLs who were sailing very close to the wind.

You have 6 months before the the average name change comes in but really if you are THAT close to wind that a £120 a month bill does you over you shouldnt be holding any investments.

I do not think that not being able to cover council tax for a 6 month period is common/standard for a BTL landlord - whatever we want to thing.

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1 hour ago, captainb said:

You have 6 months before the the average name change comes in but really if you are THAT close to wind that a £120 a month bill does you over you shouldnt be holding any investments.

I do not think that not being able to cover council tax for a 6 month period is common/standard for a BTL landlord - whatever we want to thing.

You are probably right - although of course you are assuming that everything was fine for them before hand.  We shall see in a year or two.

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I was thinking today about why it is that the UK has the worlds highest per-capita rates of Covid 19 infection?

Could it be that we have the smallest most overcrowded houses?

Could it be that we are on a generally overcrowded island with the population crammed into less than 7% of the land?

Could it be that we have adopted American style open plan offices without having American sized spaces?

Could it be that our schools are designed with significantly less space per pupil than anywhere else in Europe?

None of these are going to be easy things to fix.

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This time I was certain that we'd see the HPC.

Now I'm not so sure - BJ&cummings may be able to pull a rabbit out of the hat.

New rules for Hong Kongers

Quote

Update on new rules for Hongkongers seeking to live/work in UK: Home Office appears to confirm that if China presses on with security law, *all* 2.9m 'British nationals (overseas)' in Hong Kong will be allowed to come to UK whether or not they *currently* hold a BN(O) passport.

 

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30 minutes ago, Habeas Domus said:

I was thinking today about why it is that the UK has the worlds highest per-capita rates of Covid 19 infection?

Could it be that we have the smallest most overcrowded houses?

Could it be that we are on a generally overcrowded island with the population crammed into less than 7% of the land?

Could it be that we have adopted American style open plan offices without having American sized spaces?

Could it be that our schools are designed with significantly less space per pupil than anywhere else in Europe?

None of these are going to be easy things to fix.

Testing has something to do with it comparing different country's infections rates is nonsensical. Even death rates are dodgy.

In Brazil say i would hazard a guess nobody has a clue what the infection rate is in Rio let alone the favelas around.

All your queries are on the assumption that this is "so bad" the whole world needs to change. It evidently is not.

In the absence of data an abundance of caution is required. But if they knew what they knew now i would hazard a guess we would not have had lockdowns throughout the west.

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6 hours ago, captainb said:

But even in that case you are not in a desperate rush. 

Absolute worst case scenario you are a leveraged landlord renting out a HMO near gatwick to cabin crew which is now empty. You also have for whatever reason no savings. 

Even in this absolute worst case you still have 6 whole months to find another tennant or put on the market to sell slowly. Its not a mad dash to the auction house to accept the first offer. 

Before any big falls that wait needs to happen 

Wouldn’t the worst case scenario be that the profit being made on the HMO wasn’t just paying your mortgage but also feeding you?

If so then without tenants you can’t eat. 

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9 minutes ago, Pop321 said:

Wouldn’t the worst case scenario be that the profit being made on the HMO wasn’t just paying your mortgage but also feeding you?

If so then without tenants you can’t eat. 

Yes fair point; although now we are going into a small fraction of a small fraction.  An HMO owner with no savings, who now through bad luck has had all their tenants leave, is in the wrong area to get new ones and relies on this as their sole income without other sources - additional properties/investments/a job.

In that case such people maybe desperate to sell and accept a low offer - or put into an auction. But given the relative numbers of people in that situation its unfortunately not going to have a material impact on prices. 

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17 hours ago, Orb said:

I would have agreed with you last week, but I'm reading far too many stories of houses still selling for over asking price, and I'm thinking of the mortgage holidays, and seeing a sudden spike in people returning to work etc etc. Care to list the early signs? I need reminding of why I need to be patient, because I'm losing faith by the hour. 

I work in property (not an estate agent), it’s my job to know these things.  Based in the SE, but deal with property around the country.  Sentiment has changed, attitudes have changed, you can literally feel it.  A house price crash is baked in.  The amount of which I am uncertain.  At a guess, between 30%-50%.

Buy to let landlords selling up large portfolios, furlough ending, mass unemployment/redundancies, mortgage payment freeze ceasing in October, banks cautious about lending, credit card and loan freeze ending, depression on the horizon.  The next few years are going to hit most people financially.

It could feel like a mini boom at the moment, houses are selling (although we don’t know how much for), people have money in their pockets, feel safe and secure, bored by lockdown, but don’t understand what is coming.  This is to be expected after the market has been closed for 2 months.

It will take time, and data next spring will show exactly what Covid has done to the housing market.  I am looking to buy and will possibly next Xmas time.  Although the market may not have bottomed out by them.  This is going to be a slow burn to start and then will free-fall.  I think there is a possibility that no deal Brexit will force rates to rise.

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2 minutes ago, xxxx said:

I work in property (not an estate agent), it’s my job to know these things.  Based in the SE, but deal with property around the country.  Sentiment has changed, attitudes have changed, you can literally feel it.  A house price crash is baked in.  The amount of which I am uncertain.  At a guess, between 30%-50%.

Buy to let landlords selling up large portfolios, furlough ending, mass unemployment/redundancies, mortgage payment freeze ceasing in October, banks cautious about lending, credit card and loan freeze ending, depression on the horizon.  The next few years are going to hit most people financially.

It could feel like a mini boom at the moment, houses are selling (although we don’t know how much for), people have money in their pockets, feel safe and secure, bored by lockdown, but don’t understand what is coming.  This is to be expected after the market has been closed for 2 months.

It will take time, and data next spring will show exactly what Covid has done to the housing market.  I am looking to buy and will possibly next Xmas time.  Although the market may not have bottomed out by them.  This is going to be a slow burn to start and then will free-fall.  I think there is a possibility that no deal Brexit will force rates to rise.

Interesting, especially the part about landlords selling up portfolios. I think I'm correct in thinking that "no chain" in an advert for flats or scummy terraces is a fairly sure sign of a BTL selling. I've seen tons of these in my target area lately (Hull and the humber), and my gut feeling about this is one of optimism.

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15 minutes ago, Orb said:

Interesting, especially the part about landlords selling up portfolios. I think I'm correct in thinking that "no chain" in an advert for flats or scummy terraces is a fairly sure sign of a BTL selling. I've seen tons of these in my target area lately (Hull and the humber), and my gut feeling about this is one of optimism.

Around my way the number of sub 200k houses that come on the market that are actually someone's home is tiny.  They are overwhelmingly marked as "no chain".  They all come on, go SSTC, go off and never appear in the Land Registry.  It's an endless carousel of kite flying nonsense and so boring.

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1 hour ago, xxxx said:

Buy to let landlords selling up large portfolios, furlough ending, mass unemployment/redundancies, mortgage payment freeze ceasing in October, banks cautious about lending, credit card and loan freeze ending, depression on the horizon.  The next few years are going to hit most people financially.

It could feel like a mini boom at the moment, houses are selling (although we don’t know how much for), people have money in their pockets, feel safe and secure, bored by lockdown, but don’t understand what is coming.  This is to be expected after the market has been closed for 2 months.

I'm seeing this anecdotally in the area i look at, lots of lower end houses hitting the market chain free as landlords look to exit the market. At the upper end (+£500k) i'm seeing gradual re-listings of houses that were sstc at pre-covid asking prices, presumably as chains break down. 

We're only at the start of this, it's all forecasts, and indicators, and predictions in the media - these can all be ignored and rationalised away. It won't be until August onwards that reality starts to bite for a lot people. You've had countless years of HPI headlines, people who have bet everything on a single asset class, and the vast majority are unwilling to accept reality until they start seeing actual % fall headlines (and even then i expect people will try to convince themselves it somehow doesn't apply to their areas, or their type of house, or etc etc).

I think it will be really interesting to see what happens when sentiment completely turns. A lot of the mumsnetters and MSE'ers i've read linked on other threads seem to think they'd never reduce their prices (particularly those at the top of chains), but wait until the market is in freefall, sentiment is in the toilet, and all that un-earned wealth is trickling away each month.

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1 hour ago, xxxx said:

I work in property (not an estate agent), it’s my job to know these things.  Based in the SE, but deal with property around the country. 

Welcome! Would you mind clarifying in what capacity you work in property?

We could use a non-biased insider around here, and I suspect you have the potential to become a rahter popular poster :D - but it would be helpful to know which side of things you are involved in.

 

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3 hours ago, Trampa501 said:

This time I was certain that we'd see the HPC.

Now I'm not so sure - BJ&cummings may be able to pull a rabbit out of the hat.

New rules for Hong Kongers

 

Future BoJo voters to replace those recently gone to heaven who voted for Brexit?

I keep saying, this guy is a genius. 

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19 hours ago, bear.getting.old said:

Many people will die due to the lockdown.... not be saved by it. People not going to doctors dentists etc. No cancer screening, ops cancelled, really stupid.

I'm not sure how to quantify deaths due to lockdown and without data it's all just speculation. But the deaths because we took no action, because more vulnerable people got infected and especially the deaths because we ran out of ICU space and so otherwise treatable cases became terminal, that can be estimated with the data we have. And those projections look pretty grim.

8 hours ago, Crowdedmarket said:

Furlough ending

Mass unemployment looming

Full scale depression

Private and public sector cuts to the bone

I, as a buyer can wait until then.The one house I need to sell, I'll sell right now...going on the market next week before the big falls.

Not sure about mass unemployment or indeed a consequent depression.

There's definitely going to be some economic contraction but will this be offset by current interest rates, yet more government market intervention and perhaps some more, maybe even government subsidised, mortgage holidays/forbearance? Might there even be Help to Buy v2 where the banks permanently take over some/all existing equity in exchange for delaying the inevitable? "Convert your mortgage to a shared ownership scam!". "With the SIPP-compatible Natwest REIT you can...".

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8 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Plus they are lying ****s

Can't disagree with that. What annoys me though is my and younger generations' approach to what is happening. There's a junior manager I know at work who, rather than buy a house is instead looking to get a Ford Mustang. I mentioned to him how people like him and myself are getting screwed, both the government and Boomers and to my absolute disgust not only was he fully cognisant of those facts but also too lazy and defeatist to do anything about them.

Sadly I think he and many like him will get what they deserve.

2 hours ago, xxxx said:

I work in property (not an estate agent), it’s my job to know these things.  Based in the SE, but deal with property around the country.  Sentiment has changed, attitudes have changed, you can literally feel it.  A house price crash is baked in.  The amount of which I am uncertain.  At a guess, between 30%-50%.

Sentiment can change rapidly and bear in mind, people won't sell if they don't have to. In previous crashes it was the forced sellers who really drove the market; those that didn't need to sell just sat on their hands. This is one of the reasons why I suspect stagnation is the most probable outcome. But I live in hope!

2 hours ago, xxxx said:

Buy to let landlords selling up large portfolios, furlough ending, mass unemployment/redundancies, mortgage payment freeze ceasing in October, banks cautious about lending, credit card and loan freeze ending, depression on the horizon.  The next few years are going to hit most people financially.

I'm not sure about BTL landlords although it's possible they're selling to retire and are worried about missing the boat / finding it too difficult al la Fergus Wilson. And as for bank caution, that's inevitable given the current 'no one knows' situation but that could easily defrost rapidly just like it has in the past (2008/09).

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1 hour ago, Tit-In-a-Trance said:

I'm seeing this anecdotally in the area i look at, lots of lower end houses hitting the market chain free as landlords look to exit the market.

The trouble with illiquid assets is.....

Answers on a postcard if you will.

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2 hours ago, Deckard said:

Welcome! Would you mind clarifying in what capacity you work in property?

We could use a non-biased insider around here, and I suspect you have the potential to become a rahter popular poster :D - but it would be helpful to know which side of things you are involved in.

 

I’m a surveyor.

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54 minutes ago, LandOfConfusion said:

Can't disagree with that. What annoys me though is my and younger generations' approach to what is happening. There's a junior manager I know at work who, rather than buy a house is instead looking to get a Ford Mustang. I mentioned to him how people like him and myself are getting screwed, both the government and Boomers and to my absolute disgust not only was he fully cognisant of those facts but also too lazy and defeatist to do anything about them.

Sadly I think he and many like him will get what they deserve.

Sentiment can change rapidly and bear in mind, people won't sell if they don't have to. In previous crashes it was the forced sellers who really drove the market; those that didn't need to sell just sat on their hands. This is one of the reasons why I suspect stagnation is the most probable outcome. But I live in hope!

I'm not sure about BTL landlords although it's possible they're selling to retire and are worried about missing the boat / finding it too difficult al la Fergus Wilson. And as for bank caution, that's inevitable given the current 'no one knows' situation but that could easily defrost rapidly just like it has in the past (2008/09).

I’m talking large property portfolios ie 30 flats in one block.  This is happening all over the country, especially in cities.  This is more than selling for retirement, theres real panic out there.  New build companies are struggling with sales and their bridging loans.

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2 hours ago, Tit-In-a-Trance said:

I'm seeing this anecdotally in the area i look at, lots of lower end houses hitting the market chain free as landlords look to exit the market. At the upper end (+£500k) i'm seeing gradual re-listings of houses that were sstc at pre-covid asking prices, presumably as chains break down. 

We're only at the start of this, it's all forecasts, and indicators, and predictions in the media - these can all be ignored and rationalised away. It won't be until August onwards that reality starts to bite for a lot people. You've had countless years of HPI headlines, people who have bet everything on a single asset class, and the vast majority are unwilling to accept reality until they start seeing actual % fall headlines (and even then i expect people will try to convince themselves it somehow doesn't apply to their areas, or their type of house, or etc etc).

I think it will be really interesting to see what happens when sentiment completely turns. A lot of the mumsnetters and MSE'ers i've read linked on other threads seem to think they'd never reduce their prices (particularly those at the top of chains), but wait until the market is in freefall, sentiment is in the toilet, and all that un-earned wealth is trickling away each month.

I agree.  It will bite in November, when furlough, mortgage, loans and pcp holidays finish.  By April, the impact will be felt.  Then we have Brexit.  To be honest, it will probably take a few years for prices to bottom out.  I’ve been patient and will know when the time comes, that a house is value for money.

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3 minutes ago, xxxx said:

I agree.  It will bite in November, when furlough, mortgage, loans and pcp holidays finish.  By April, the impact will be felt.  Then we have Brexit.  To be honest, it will probably take a few years for prices to bottom out.  I’ve been patient and will know when the time comes, that a house is value for money.

Japan's housing bubble in the 80's took a few years 90-92 and that was with ZIRP and stimulus still had 30-50% drops in Tokyo and other regions..  It's an interesting case study.

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17 minutes ago, xxxx said:

I’m a surveyor.

Thank you.

Keep the updates coming! 👍

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21 hours ago, Habeas Domus said:

I was thinking today about why it is that the UK has the worlds highest per-capita rates of Covid 19 infection?

Could it be that we have the smallest most overcrowded houses?

Could it be that we are on a generally overcrowded island with the population crammed into less than 7% of the land?

Could it be that we have adopted American style open plan offices without having American sized spaces?

Could it be that our schools are designed with significantly less space per pupil than anywhere else in Europe?

None of these are going to be easy things to fix.

If its infections then a good start is the low testing numbers obviously you are going to have a high infection rate as folks getting tested either have symptoms/sick or work near ill people.

But all you points are valid cramming people in like sardines is profitable but a risk when something like this comes along.

 

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19 hours ago, xxxx said:

I work in property (not an estate agent), it’s my job to know these things.  Based in the SE, but deal with property around the country.  Sentiment has changed, attitudes have changed, you can literally feel it.  A house price crash is baked in.  The amount of which I am uncertain.  At a guess, between 30%-50%.

Buy to let landlords selling up large portfolios, furlough ending, mass unemployment/redundancies, mortgage payment freeze ceasing in October, banks cautious about lending, credit card and loan freeze ending, depression on the horizon.  The next few years are going to hit most people financially.

It could feel like a mini boom at the moment, houses are selling (although we don’t know how much for), people have money in their pockets, feel safe and secure, bored by lockdown, but don’t understand what is coming.  This is to be expected after the market has been closed for 2 months.

It will take time, and data next spring will show exactly what Covid has done to the housing market.  I am looking to buy and will possibly next Xmas time.  Although the market may not have bottomed out by them.  This is going to be a slow burn to start and then will free-fall.  I think there is a possibility that no deal Brexit will force rates to rise.

Yes a belated welcome fellow poster, Roman Roady will also enjoy your insights.

Re the bold area above, I do not think that this virus is done with us yet. In fact I believe worse is yet to come...starting this weekend.

 

 

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  • 395 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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