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reddog

Will Corona virus cause a house price crash?

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1 hour ago, 24gray24 said:

A bit odd to think cash is more likely to have a crash than property or gold. 

He must think prices will go up when inflation kicks in, and won't go down first. 

Nice houses in the area don't come up very often, so probably more about I want that house now than a search for value. 

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21 minutes ago, LandOfConfusion said:

The wiring can deteriorate and I've heard of at least one case where it caused an intermittent fault leading to a section of plumbing becoming live. And sadly the tenant died in that one.

In general though it seems to be OK provided you leave it alone. When my parents' house was re-wired a few years ago I got to see them take out the old 1960's cabling. Some of it had started to turn to what was in effect wire-in-powder, which I imagine that's actually safe provided you don't move, nail into or otherwise interfere with it in any way (like for instance when redecorating!).

Oh, and still having a wire-based fuse board (no RCBs) wasn't ideal either.

Very very difficult to electrocute someone these days with an EBADS system, if correct earthing size and RCD's are used it is close to impossible 

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1 hour ago, Kosmin said:

I never understood this argument. Someone has been living in a house which has presumably had unsafe wiring for many years, but it only matters when they sell.

In these old houses lots of things are at or near end of life, or just very basic. If you are moving in you might as well do it and, if you can, it makes sense to do everything at once and get the benefit of the changes.

The really daft thing is people who live in semi squalor for years and then do up their house to sell it. 

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1 hour ago, winkie said:

Like some will never buy a new car, they also would also never buy a new house.....once you own the house freehold you own your space.....anything that then needs attention can be done in your own time.....no rush.......when buying property after the location it is the land that has value, bricks are bricks.;)

 

Would always opt for an older house, but would draw the line the closer I got to Tudor homes, they are homes that are great to look at from your 1800-1900's built home across the street 🙂 

First house I purchased was a 3 bedroom Victorian until I went "up market" into my 2nd 1960's home, wish I had stayed in the first even without it's private parking, the build was amazing and when I took floorboard up they could have been fitted yesterday.

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Not sure what to do myself.

 

Agreed a sale pre lockdown of asking price, just under 200k. They wouldnt budge on price as we pulled out, we have a 40-50% deposit so dont want to rush into anything and want to get it right.

 

With the uncertainty in the market we are considering just saving for another 6 months and just going for a 250k house which will probably be the 'forever home'. Should we hold off and wait or just try and get on with buying? I'd be delighted even with a 8-10% drop.

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11 minutes ago, First time on the ladder said:

Not sure what to do myself.

 

Agreed a sale pre lockdown of asking price, just under 200k. They wouldnt budge on price as we pulled out, we have a 40-50% deposit so dont want to rush into anything and want to get it right.

 

With the uncertainty in the market we are considering just saving for another 6 months and just going for a 250k house which will probably be the 'forever home'. Should we hold off and wait or just try and get on with buying? I'd be delighted even with a 8-10% drop.

Good plan.

I'm no expert. My plan is to sell dead moms house for 80k (its worth 105 apparently) within a few months, put it with my cash and go for a 230 K house with a 120 K offer (a good 80K to spare too, but thats mine forever). Probably by the end of next year. I'm in no rush. If that fails, I'm going for auctions....I'm sure the banks will be feasting this xmas, I'll feed of the carcasses in the proceeding months. In my parts, this will be a mansion with nothing to fix.

Will also hold off for a new car until next year, maybe this xmas if the right deal comes along....3 years old I reckon, either BMW 5 series or Mercedes/Volvo. Highest MPG I can get and lowest tax.  

 

I've been waiting a while for this, I can wait a bit longer.

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15 minutes ago, First time on the ladder said:

 Should we hold off and wait or just try and get on with buying? I'd be delighted even with a 8-10% drop.

It's difficult to know as although the fundamentals would suggest a significant fall, they have done that several times since 2001 and only really in 2008 did it happen.

The problem is government interference. There's a lot of hatred here towards the Boomer generation and that's in part because they are the favoured group and successive governments have used housing as a major means of transferring wealth from younger generations to them.

So I'd say it's a gamble. On one hand deflation should now ensue, which should dampen house prices and then followed by a period of high inflation and high(er) interest rates as a recovery takes place. But on the other it's highly likely the government will simply raise taxes on productivity, which will do little to hurt the majority of Boomers who are now retiring, and use that together with more house-price raising schemes (temporarily scrap stamp duty?) to keep things going for a few more years.

My personal feeling is that the damage won't be as much as some hope or suspect and that house prices will continue to rise a little, although it's going to be interesting to see how governments around the world will deal with the debt. Especially seeing as monetisation (printing to pay government debt instead of getting it though taxation) now seems to have little in the way of consequences.

That said if you happen to live in a part of the UK which is especially vulnerable and sees lots of layoffs come end of furlough then maybe wait?

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1 hour ago, dirtysteve said:

. Logic says a crash of some sort has to happen but I’m not seeing it at all in the SE. I guess I just need to be more patient 😩

 

I'm not sure if anything will happen until after the various government schemes end along with the massive borrowing. Indeed some assets will probably go up like the stock market and property but it will come to a crashing end sooner or later. The government are just trying to kick the can down the road .

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20 minutes ago, Crowdedmarket said:

Will also hold off for a new car until next year, maybe this xmas if the right deal comes along....3 years old I reckon, either BMW 5 series or Mercedes/Volvo.

That £80k won't last long, especially if you buy a Merc.

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10 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

My view changed post 2012 when the brought in Help To Buy etc.  It was clear they were not going to do the right thing.  We tried to buy a house just before it all kicked off again but really they were all asking 2007+ prices anyway, there was only ever a gold window of about 10 months in 2008 where you could buy a well priced house.  That evaporated over night, like the EAs were running a cartel in cahoots with the BoE.  I've sat and watched the madness since and despite a couple of false dawns my message has been....this will not end will, the country will collapse. That is a shoe in now.  I hate to be proved right but at least I can enjoy seeing the BTLers destroyed.  

Dont blame me if you lose it all, we've all tried to warn people for years now but no one wants to listen.

I even posted in one of the threads a week or so ago that I dont even think the CV19 will cause a crash in prices and everyone told me I was wrong but I was fed up with it all :lol: I hope they are right :lol: 

Anyone new to the forum can check this, it's all on here.  I can only conclude the moron(s) with 120 posts having a pop at me are the same, very sad, very worried, person.

I'll be back off to France at the end of June, hopefully I've learned my lesson and wont come back this time so they can put their accont back to sleep until I come back to laugh at them once again.

 

If this comes good for you big time now, would it of been a waste of time?  Maybe the wait   will enhance things for you even more if you end up getting what you want.

I know through personal experience where you think you are living in bad or even good times for that matter, and one event can change that perspective over night

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24 minutes ago, LandOfConfusion said:

It's difficult to know as although the fundamentals would suggest a significant fall, they have done that several times since 2001 and only really in 2008 did it happen.

The problem is government interference. There's a lot of hatred here towards the Boomer generation and that's in part because they are the favoured group and successive governments have used housing as a major means of transferring wealth from younger generations to them.

So I'd say it's a gamble. On one hand deflation should now ensue, which should dampen house prices and then followed by a period of high inflation and high(er) interest rates as a recovery takes place. But on the other it's highly likely the government will simply raise taxes on productivity, which will do little to hurt the majority of Boomers who are now retiring, and use that together with more house-price raising schemes (temporarily scrap stamp duty?) to keep things going for a few more years.

My personal feeling is that the damage won't be as much as some hope or suspect and that house prices will continue to rise a little, although it's going to be interesting to see how governments around the world will deal with the debt. Especially seeing as monetisation (printing to pay government debt instead of getting it though taxation) now seems to have little in the way of consequences.

That said if you happen to live in a part of the UK which is especially vulnerable and sees lots of layoffs come end of furlough then maybe wait?

I'm not convinced we will see any major interest rises reflecting in mortgages. Many many people are close to the limit and we all know the govt will do what they can to protect the market.

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4 minutes ago, First time on the ladder said:

I'm not convinced we will see any major interest rises reflecting in mortgages. Many many people are close to the limit and we all know the govt will do what they can to protect the market.

My thoughts too. A rate rise now would be pretty catastrophic and unlikely to happen unless forced. And I don't know about anyone else but I can't see anything likely to force it.

And on a somewhat thread-related point this just came up on my phone: Mortgage rates hit another all-time low as home buyers rush to secure cheap financing

So it doesn't look like mass unemployment in the US is having a major negative effect.

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11 minutes ago, xxxx said:

It’s going.  All the early signs are there.  Be patient.

I would have agreed with you last week, but I'm reading far too many stories of houses still selling for over asking price, and I'm thinking of the mortgage holidays, and seeing a sudden spike in people returning to work etc etc. Care to list the early signs? I need reminding of why I need to be patient, because I'm losing faith by the hour. 

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14 minutes ago, Orb said:

I would have agreed with you last week, but I'm reading far too many stories of houses still selling for over asking price, and I'm thinking of the mortgage holidays, and seeing a sudden spike in people returning to work etc etc. Care to list the early signs? I need reminding of why I need to be patient, because I'm losing faith by the hour. 

I agree with this to an extent. I think we will see some fall when all the inevitable unemployment hits but I feel it's going to be circa 5% now.

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2 hours ago, LandOfConfusion said:

My thoughts too. A rate rise now would be pretty catastrophic and unlikely to happen unless forced. And I don't know about anyone else but I can't see anything likely to force it.

And on a somewhat thread-related point this just came up on my phone: Mortgage rates hit another all-time low as home buyers rush to secure cheap financing

So it doesn't look like mass unemployment in the US is having a major negative effect.

Why would the bank of england even consider raising rates now? Inflation is well below their 2% target and the economy is hardly booming... 

No seller has to sell at the moment. If there is to be significant falls they will be 2021 at the earliest. 

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Personally and this is a real putting money where my mouth is.... If I had been buying a 250K house in the south east of England I would have pulled out due to the C19, to wait. But seeing as the house was a lot cheaper in the north, I figured any fall would have been small anyway and less likely. I'm not convinced about this insane reaction to a disease that even now, has killed so little people who were not already ill. Many people will die due to the lockdown.... not be saved by it. People not going to doctors dentists etc. No cancer screening, ops cancelled, really stupid.

Edited by bear.getting.old

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Rates were political, but now are solely on fiscal credibility.  With debt worse than 2007 it's a powder keg.  It only takes another growth area for value to flow out of GBP and leave you with a sterling crisis.

The Tories have capital as the fiscally 'responsible' party, but that will only last so long.  The ERM break in the 90s showed things get hairy quickly - the question is what the push will be.

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Elevators and the social distancing problem. I know the articles about commercial, but presumably will concern high rise housing blocks too

Commercial Real Estate in the Plague Year: The Office Tower Landscape is About to Be Remade  

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/05/28/commercial-real-estate-in-the-plague-year-the-office-tower-landscape-is-about-to-be-remade/

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10 hours ago, captainb said:

Why would the bank of england even consider raising rates now? Inflation is well below their 2% target and the economy is hardly booming... 

No seller has to sell at the moment. If there is to be significant falls they will be 2021 at the earliest. 

Anyone without tenants might want to sell - but I do agree with you about interest rates

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2 minutes ago, iamnumerate said:

Anyone without tenants might want to sell - but I do agree with you about interest rates

But even in that case you are not in a desperate rush. 

Absolute worst case scenario you are a leveraged landlord renting out a HMO near gatwick to cabin crew which is now empty. You also have for whatever reason no savings. 

Even in this absolute worst case you still have 6 whole months to find another tennant or put on the market to sell slowly. Its not a mad dash to the auction house to accept the first offer. 

Before any big falls that wait needs to happen 

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10 hours ago, captainb said:

Why would the bank of england even consider raising rates now? Inflation is well below their 2% target and the economy is hardly booming... 

No seller has to sell at the moment. If there is to be significant falls they will be 2021 at the earliest. 

Furlough ending

Mass unemployment looming

Full scale depression

Private and public sector cuts to the bone

I, as a buyer can wait until then.The one house I need to sell, I'll sell right now...going on the market next week before the big falls.

 

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8 minutes ago, Crowdedmarket said:

Furlough ending

Mass unemployment looming

Full scale depression

Private and public sector cuts to the bone

I, as a buyer can wait until then.The one house I need to sell, I'll sell right now...going on the market next week before the big falls.

 

Right but all those things listed have not happened yet. Furlough ending is a given, the remainder are conjecture and may or may not.

You might sell tomorrow at auction given your views on above but you are not an average seller - by virtue of you being on this forum aside from anything else :)

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9 minutes ago, Crowdedmarket said:

Furlough ending

Mass unemployment looming

Full scale depression

Private and public sector cuts to the bone

I, as a buyer can wait until then.The one house I need to sell, I'll sell right now...going on the market next week before the big falls.

 

I sometimes thought if you knew that you only had a couple of years of life in you with good health and only you knew about it, say the end of the world was coming or a non painful health issue that would only  effect you on the fateful day 🙂  what  a magical last few years you could have.

You could run that credit limit up to bursting point as others used their hard earned money to tread water  thinking in 20 or 30 years they to would reap their rewards as you lived everyday as it was a holiday.

That's kind of where I think we are at now, even on here I am reading posts that sort of treat furlough and mortgage holidays and increased universal benefits and Housing benefits like just some kind of extra Bank holiday they can just write off as if it was nothing. I keep reading stuff like "house prices won't fall because they will just" etc etc, usually they are referring to this huge pot of money that's just sitting there unused.

There will be consequences, unless of course we are all going to peg it in a couple of years and it will all be fine 🙂 

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1 hour ago, captainb said:

But even in that case you are not in a desperate rush. 

Absolute worst case scenario you are a leveraged landlord renting out a HMO near gatwick to cabin crew which is now empty. You also have for whatever reason no savings. 

Even in this absolute worst case you still have 6 whole months to find another tennant or put on the market to sell slowly. Its not a mad dash to the auction house to accept the first offer. 

Before any big falls that wait needs to happen 

What about council tax etc?  How do you pay that?  I have known in the past some BTLs who were sailing very close to the wind.

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  • 399 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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