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Will Corona virus cause a house price crash?

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1 hour ago, iamnumerate said:

Wow - why would you pay that?  Unless you think that inflation is going to take off in a big way.

Inflation, or wage inflation.

it's very important to separate the two.

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5 hours ago, winkie said:

All about the strength of the chain........Elderly people dying will mean more probate properties available, that might need to be sold fast, who will pay a high price?.....they will need to sell, who will pay a high price?......the falls will trickle down......then a first time buyer will secure a better price for a used property......everyone gains less SD to pay.😉

I made the same point the other day, and elderly baby boomer houses tend to be the old family home from the 1960's which saw out the last 20-30 years with two barely used spare bedrooms. If new couples can purchase one of these close to new build 2 bedroom shoebox starter homes  at near to the same price then the smaller newbuilds  will fall in value also

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5 minutes ago, crumblingcon said:

I made the same point the other day, and elderly baby boomer houses tend to be the old family home from the 1960's which saw out the last 20-30 years with two barely used spare bedrooms. If new couples can purchase one of these close to new build 2 bedroom shoebox starter homes  at near to the same price then the smaller newbuilds  will fall in value also

Just remember to price in the refurb and it's not just a lick of paint.

These old houses often need new electrics, new plumbing, new heating, new windows/doors, insulation, new kitchen, new bathroom and probably an en suite or two. Then you can start the redecoration which if you are unlucky will include lots of re-plastering and new ceilings.  

I finished doing up/extending ours (pre boomer house last updated in the early 80s)  a couple of years ago, the final bill was around three times higher than our initial finger in the air figure.     

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5 minutes ago, Drifty said:

I didn't think the stupidity of this housing market could get worse but I've found this:

Shared ownership at 10% costing £28,500. That price alone is ridiculous. 

But don't forget the £46,500 premium on top of that!!!!!

https://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/55013904?search_identifier=ecc1b172facc30982e57f374b83041a6

 

lol, so that's £75k for 10% of a 2 bed semi bungalow in Milton Keynes. I think I've seen enough for the time being. Wake me up next year please. 

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14 minutes ago, Drifty said:

I didn't think the stupidity of this housing market could get worse but I've found this:

Shared ownership at 10% costing £28,500. That price alone is ridiculous. 

But don't forget the £46,500 premium on top of that!!!!!

https://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/55013904?search_identifier=ecc1b172facc30982e57f374b83041a6

 

What is the "Premium"?

NB It's EPC is D rated so probably needs a full refurb, something you are not going to be doing if you only own 10% of the property.

Edited by Confusion of VIs

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11 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

 

What is the "Premium"?

NB It's EPC is D rated so probably needs a full refurb, something you are not going to be doing if you only own 10% of the property.

Clearly painting everything in magnolia and having tacky gold items demand such a high premium. 

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Well looking at the latest Land Reg' statistics it so far doesn't look like prices are falling:

oSBVMDp.png

That said the data range is Jan 2010 - Mar 2020, so there might have been a downturn since but if that's the case then it's certainly not happening around here (SE England).

 

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1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Inflation, or wage inflation.

it's very important to separate the two.

I assume both, I don't think it will happen,but that seems the only reason to pay over the odds now.

If the buyer is someone working at the bank of England I would be worried.

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8 minutes ago, LandOfConfusion said:

Well looking at the latest Land Reg' statistics it so far doesn't look like prices are falling:

oSBVMDp.png

That said the data range is Jan 2010 - Mar 2020, so there might have been a downturn since but if that's the case then it's certainly not happening around here (SE England).

 

How could it be falling, those March sales would have been agreed and contracts signed well before the lockdowm.

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10 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

How could it be falling, those March sales would have been agreed and contracts signed well before the lockdowm.

Won't land registry figures be showing houses being registered between January and March?  

Ie sold in July,  exchanged in November,  completed in December, and finally registered in January after the Christmas break.  

If so, we're looking at last summer's prices. 6 month lag.

Edited by 24gray24

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8 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

How could it be falling, those March sales would have been agreed and contracts signed well before the lockdowm.

True although HP's had been falling since Jun 2016 and from what I've seen in my local area the recent pickup has only continued. Case in point: a house I looked at had it's asking jacked up by £10k in less than a week, probably because of the interest (2k+ views on Zoopla alone). And I thought it was already pushing it a bit at it's original price...

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1 minute ago, iamnumerate said:

I assume both, I don't think it will happen,but that seems the only reason to pay over the odds now.

If the buyer is someone working at the bank of England I would be worried.

It was a cash buyer, so in this case presumably its inflation expectations that matter.  

If you have cash its hard to know where to put it now, almost all assets seem to be defying gravity at the moment. 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, 24gray24 said:

If so, we're looking at last summer's prices. 6 month lag.

3 months to complete + 1 month delay.

Just had a look at Zoopla's asking prices, 3.3% for here and 1.52% for where I'm currently looking. Prices for the last 3 months are essentially no change but then there doesn't appear to have been any sales so no surprise.

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17 minutes ago, LandOfConfusion said:

3 months to complete + 1 month delay.

The whole industry claims to be quicker than it is. 

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2 hours ago, crumblingcon said:

I made the same point the other day, and elderly baby boomer houses tend to be the old family home from the 1960's which saw out the last 20-30 years with two barely used spare bedrooms. If new couples can purchase one of these close to new build 2 bedroom shoebox starter homes  at near to the same price then the smaller newbuilds  will fall in value also

Like some will never buy a new car, they also would also never buy a new house.....once you own the house freehold you own your space.....anything that then needs attention can be done in your own time.....no rush.......when buying property after the location it is the land that has value, bricks are bricks.;)

 

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43 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

It was a cash buyer, so in this case presumably its inflation expectations that matter.  

If you have cash its hard to know where to put it now, almost all assets seem to be defying gravity at the moment. 

 

 

Put it in the bank and wait a few months?

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57 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

It was a cash buyer, so in this case presumably its inflation expectations that matter.  

If you have cash its hard to know where to put it now, almost all assets seem to be defying gravity at the moment. 

 

 

A bit odd to think cash is more likely to have a crash than property or gold. 

He must think prices will go up when inflation kicks in, and won't go down first. 

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2 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Just remember to price in the refurb and it's not just a lick of paint.

These old houses often need new electrics, new plumbing, new heating, new windows/doors, insulation, new kitchen, new bathroom and probably an en suite or two. Then you can start the redecoration which if you are unlucky will include lots of re-plastering and new ceilings.  

I never understood this argument. Someone has been living in a house which has presumably had unsafe wiring for many years, but it only matters when they sell.

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41 minutes ago, iamnumerate said:

Put it in the bank and wait a few months?

I've done EXACTLY that. Several banks. One anomaly though: Despite having a 999/999 credit score Nationwide turned me down to open a new account recently - I missed the chance to give them 2500 of my heard earned for 5%/year.

 

I'm not worried about the return on my money.

I'm worried about the return of my money.

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2 hours ago, Orb said:

lol, so that's £75k for 10% of a 2 bed semi bungalow in Milton Keynes. I think I've seen enough for the time being. Wake me up next year please. 

No, wake me up and say it isn't true....people are not now buying homes like they now do cars?......where will it all end, nobody will never own anything, even their time and life others will own......only here to enrich others.;)

 

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37 minutes ago, Kosmin said:

I never understood this argument. Someone has been living in a house which has presumably had unsafe wiring for many years, but it only matters when they sell.

The wiring can deteriorate and I've heard of at least one case where it caused an intermittent fault leading to a section of plumbing becoming live. And sadly the tenant died in that one.

In general though it seems to be OK provided you leave it alone. When my parents' house was re-wired a few years ago I got to see them take out the old 1960's cabling. Some of it had started to turn to what was in effect wire-in-powder, which I imagine that's actually safe provided you don't move, nail into or otherwise interfere with it in any way (like for instance when redecorating!).

Oh, and still having a wire-based fuse board (no RCBs) wasn't ideal either.

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Feeling fed up today. Another house I’ve been following has now sold. A few others I was looking at just before Corona which went under offer are still showing as sold. In the areas I’m looking there’s just no sign of weakness. Demand is very high for the nice houses. Stock markets are soaring and seem completely detached from reality and i worry the same new money driving that will find its way to the housing market. Logic says a crash of some sort has to happen but I’m not seeing it at all in the SE. I guess I just need to be more patient 😩

 

Sold in 3 weeks. Another example of a nice house in desirable location, priced right, selling quickly.
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-92029847.html

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  • 399 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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