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Will Corona virus cause a house price crash?

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34 minutes ago, highcontrast said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52640696

 

Coronavirus: England housing market is released from lockdown

Would be better if they focus on reviving small businesses. Seems for govt, all problems can be solved by estate agents. Boris is reviving Kier Starmer. Seems Boris is becoming fatter version of John Major.

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26 minutes ago, hurlerontheditch said:

Release the kracken

Indeed.

Who's going to be doing virtual viewings and then making ridiculously low (i.e. what it's actually worth) bids?

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1 hour ago, hurlerontheditch said:

Release the kracken

Release the Kirstie ! 

Quote

Jonathan Hopper, chief executive of real estate consultants Garrington Property Finders

thinks that there is still demand from buyers for new properties.

"The lockdown may have halted conventional viewings, but there are plenty of signs that some would-be buyers have used the past six weeks to window shop in earnest," he said.

"Few things are more likely to make people want to move than being cooped up in the same four walls for weeks on end, and property portals have seen traffic increase by up to a fifth. "

 

Quote

Garrington was originally founded by property expert Phil Spencer to offer a new way of finding property

https://www.garrington.co.uk/about/background/

Quote

Location, Location, Location star Phil Spencer's property firm went bust owing over £500,000

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-1169915/Location-Location-Location-star-Phil-Spencers-property-firm-went-bust-owing-500-000.html

 

Edited by Saving For a Space Ship

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"Few things are more likely to make people want to move than being cooped up in the same four walls for weeks on end,

 

Yeah suddenly gives me the urge to get a monster mortgage and tap my auntie for fifty grand

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20 hours ago, moonriver said:

FCA is now considering extending "Mortgage Payment Holidays" to 12 months".

https://www.mortgagesolutions.co.uk/news/2020/05/12/fca-considers-12-month-mortgage-payment-holiday-reports/

The article says in April 700,000 have already been granted a mortgage holiday.

Their credit score will not be impaired and  they "should not be treated differently from those who keeping making payments". Does that mean they would not be charged any interest for a year?

Will this slow down sales, help to keep prices static, or are prices still likely to fall?

I am guessing it may help some, but the economy is in such a bad and unpredictable state, eventually, (but  it may not be for some time), nothing will be able to hold up these extortiionate house prices, compared to what wages were, even before covid.

Sadly I think this will be first of many interventions.

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3 minutes ago, ucnvpe0 said:

Sadly I think this will be first of many interventions.

This is not 2007/08

There is nothing in the weapons armoury  that comes even close to being able to deal with the magnitude of the problem that the housing market is now facing. My one and only realistic fear is inflating our way out of this problem which slightly p***es me off, it's like a nasty armed criminal deciding he as met his end and taking the innocent with him

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The Torygraph hopes the Uk'd market will be like Swedens ? ..

Sweden shows why lockdown is the least of Britain’s property market woes

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/abroad/sweden-shows-lockdown-least-britains-property-market-woes/

 

Quote

..Prices and transactions were stable in March and April, said Mr Vesterberg, and in May, they have fallen.

The number of sales is about 20pc down on the same period last year. The sales that are happening take longer.

In March, as buyers and sellers rushed to transact fearing the country could enter lockdown, apartments were listed for an average of 16 days on Hemnet, a property portal, before they sold. In April, the period increased to 19 days. “Everyone is more anxious and worried,” added Mr Vesterberg.

“We think we will see a price drop of 5 to 6pc this year.” This suggests that lockdown itself is not a big factor. When it comes to property markets, what really matters is the economy, employment, buying power and consumer sentiment.

Analysts are not anticipating a crash, with low interest rates and mortgage rates at about 1.5pc. As in Britain, the Swedish government has introduced wage protection schemes and homeowners can take mortgage holidays...

 

Edited by Saving For a Space Ship

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On 12/05/2020 at 12:30, Warlord said:

Anyone want to re-post this article in 6 months time and ram it down these 'analysts; throats? 😄

 

UK house prices to fall on coronavirus, but analysts don’t expect a 2008-like collapse

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/11/coronavirus-impact-on-uk-house-prices.html

Gladly. I've quoted it so I don't lose it. I agree 100% with it. Until you have mortgage shortages and rising interest rates, house prices are going to remain exactly where they are / go further up in the years to come. Those who find themselves unemployed will be employed again as the economy grows back to normal levels. Those who want to buy a house or service a mortgage will continue to be able to do so with interest rates where they are. Your collapse isn't coming.

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37 minutes ago, Twenty Something said:

Gladly. I've quoted it so I don't lose it. I agree 100% with it. Until you have mortgage shortages and rising interest rates, house prices are going to remain exactly where they are / go further up in the years to come. Those who find themselves unemployed will be employed again as the economy grows back to normal levels. Those who want to buy a house or service a mortgage will continue to be able to do so with interest rates where they are. Your collapse isn't coming.

I’ll gladly quote your nonsense too so I don’t lose it. I 100% disagree with it. Let’s see who’s right.

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Employment levels in China are not returning to normal. Hotel and Restaurants are nowhere near pre-virus level of business. We still do not know whether we will see 2nd 3rd etc waves of infections. 

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50 minutes ago, dirtysteve said:

I’ll gladly quote your nonsense too so I don’t lose it. I 100% disagree with it. Let’s see who’s right.

It could go either way - it depends on the virus and whether it may return with a vengeance later in the year. 

In summer 1918 everyone thought the worst was over - but the worst was actually still to come with the Spanish flu as the second wave was much more deadly and killed far more young people.

Whether everyone returns to work or we have a global depression could depend on what the virus does not politicians.

Edited by MARTINX9

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On 13/05/2020 at 08:51, crumblingcon said:

This is not 2007/08

There is nothing in the weapons armoury  that comes even close to being able to deal with the magnitude of the problem that the housing market is now facing. My one and only realistic fear is inflating our way out of this problem which slightly p***es me off, it's like a nasty armed criminal deciding he as met his end and taking the innocent with him

Ive argued a few times that the govt will follow the Irish 2008 model and do everything they can to keep homeowners on the hook for their debt. 

A year's mortgage holiday is just the start. Ireland ended up with 200% ltv mortgages after houses fell 50%. IMHO the days of handing the keys back are gone, they are doing you a favour by letting you stay in your debt, sorry, I mean house 

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2 hours ago, regprentice said:

Ive argued a few times that the govt will follow the Irish 2008 model and do everything they can to keep homeowners on the hook for their debt. 

A year's mortgage holiday is just the start. Ireland ended up with 200% ltv mortgages after houses fell 50%. IMHO the days of handing the keys back are gone, they are doing you a favour by letting you stay in your debt, sorry, I mean house 

Irish prices plummeted from 2008-2010. And in many rural areas they never recovered.

For example my uncle's house in rural south west Ireland - a nice well maintained 3 bed detached bungalow in the middle of peaceful countryside - was valued at 120,000 euro in 2005 and was recently valued at 75,000 euro (pre COVID). Back in 2014 it was worth only around 50,000 euro.

Their crash proved then that high prices were nothing to do with the supply and demand for housing - but the supply of money. The supply of money collapsed in 2008-09 - but there were the same number of houses and people neeeding them!

Edited by MARTINX9

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4 hours ago, Twenty Something said:

Gladly. I've quoted it so I don't lose it. I agree 100% with it. Until you have mortgage shortages and rising interest rates, house prices are going to remain exactly where they are / go further up in the years to come. Those who find themselves unemployed will be employed again as the economy grows back to normal levels. Those who want to buy a house or service a mortgage will continue to be able to do so with interest rates where they are. Your collapse isn't coming.

Out of interest, when did you buy your house?

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4 hours ago, Twenty Something said:

Gladly. I've quoted it so I don't lose it.

Bless. Forgetful?

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2 hours ago, highcontrast said:

@Twenty Something ....also may i add...if you don't mind me asking...do you have any BTL properties?

He is surely on a wind up ... 

@Twenty Something just because it didn't happen last time doesn't mean it won't happen this time. Recall that the gov threw billions at it to prop up the market (HTB for example). This time rates are already at 0% and the gov has no money to prop up the market. They're literally out of bullets.

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1 hour ago, Warlord said:

He is surely on a wind up ... 

@Twenty Something just because it didn't happen last time doesn't mean it won't happen this time. Recall that the gov threw billions at it to prop up the market (HTB for example). This time rates are already at 0% and the gov has no money to prop up the market. They're literally out of bullets.

Just have my suspicions 🙂 

I know a few BTL guys and if you get into a conversation with them about the problems heading their way they react by becoming nasty, this guy just gives me the same impression 

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10 hours ago, Twenty Something said:

Gladly. I've quoted it so I don't lose it. I agree 100% with it. Until you have mortgage shortages and rising interest rates, house prices are going to remain exactly where they are / go further up in the years to come. Those who find themselves unemployed will be employed again as the economy grows back to normal levels. Those who want to buy a house or service a mortgage will continue to be able to do so with interest rates where they are. Your collapse isn't coming.

Yup.  Absolutely this.  Unless interest rates start to climb it's gonna be business as usual. 

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10 minutes ago, Martin_JD said:

Yup.  Absolutely this.  Unless interest rates start to climb it's gonna be business as usual. 

Interest at 0% did not stop the Japanese crash or the US crash in 08 

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  • 397 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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