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Will Corona virus cause a house price crash?


reddog
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1 hour ago, monkey100 said:

I just don't want to use all my savings if I may be able to pay less later on and have some left for when I'm older 

Tell the estate agent you’re having second thoughts due to the current crisis. List your concerns but come across as genuine, worried, vulnerable and honest. Ask if there’s any room for negotiation on the price due to this. Then go quiet for a few days. Maybe you can negotiate a 5-10% discount. If they offer any discount say you were thinking double that amount.

When I was selling last year my buyer knocked off 5% at the last minute due to no other reason than she was a b****. I hated her but had to sell. If you can come across more genuine maybe the seller will accept times are changing fast and they won’t want to lose you. Worth a shot. If they say no then it’s just down to how much you want it. 

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In a similar position to some others on here.  Due to buy a house (there have been delays with planning permission which isn't yet signed off).  Think the impact of this coronavirus will be massive - no one will want to view houses let alone buy them for months....Went to see a house yesterday (as am thinking of pulling out of the other one and wanted to see what else was available) and the agent said they had alot of cancellations for viewings.  Our death toll is currently not huge -  if our death toll starts to look like Italy, think alot of people will go in to lockdown mode as far as possible (whether the government orders it or not).   So restaurants, pubs etc all going to take a huge knock.  Reckon we'll end up with half the population carrying on as usual and the other half going in to lockdown.

I have friends on 0 hours contract who have just had their work cancelled for the next month - which will undoubtedly turn out to be 3 months at least....

Hard to see how the economy isn't going to take a massive nosedive. 

Re the house purchase my problem is the owner of the house would be my potential neighbour - also really love the house and looked for ages....so think if I go to them with a new revised offer they will totally hate me and you don't want that with neighbours.  So think I'll just have to pull out and look for something else....or have them come to me with counter offers - suggestions.  Rock and a hard place in some ways, as would prefer not to have so much money in the bank...and bricks and mortars could be safer, but cannot stomach potentially overpaying by 80k (house I'm buying is 430k).  On the flip side I am actually also glad to have money in the bank in some ways....as at least if my business goes tits up I have cash I can live off.

My sister was due to buy a house and opted to pull out 2 weeks ago because of this virus thing also....

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1 hour ago, dirtysteve said:

Tell the estate agent you’re having second thoughts due to the current crisis. List your concerns but come across as genuine, worried, vulnerable and honest. Ask if there’s any room for negotiation on the price due to this. Then go quiet for a few days. Maybe you can negotiate a 5-10% discount. If they offer any discount say you were thinking double that amount.

When I was selling last year my buyer knocked off 5% at the last minute due to no other reason than she was a b****. I hated her but had to sell. If you can come across more genuine maybe the seller will accept times are changing fast and they won’t want to lose you. Worth a shot. If they say no then it’s just down to how much you want it. 

Expect a while for the sale to conclude - if solicitors have to shut down shop as a non essential business and self isolate there isn’t going to be much conveyancing done.

I can even see the government requisitioning Second and empty homes to house people.

Houses aren’t going to be bought or sold - because the infrastructure won’t be there to complete the legal sale process.

And who is going to borrow hundreds of thousands to buy one bed new build flats in London in this climate?!

 

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18 minutes ago, Si1 said:

The express is quite possible the worst of the uk papers. And considering we have The Sport, Star, Sun and Mail that’s quite an achievement. There’s always a storm, recession, war, snow, heatwave, HPC, House price surge just around the corner according to their front pages. Can’t understand why anyone would buy that carp. At least The Sun and Sport has good pictures and some humour. Having said all that, the above is one of their better stories and quite plausible ?

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9 hours ago, hotblack42 said:

.. will probably buy a reasonably priced house we just saw for about £240k with £130k down, £110k borrowed at sub 2% fixed for 5 years..

The discount is that we'll save about £5000 interest vs 3%.

This is fag packet.  Going to do the sums properly today & will report back.

1.74% fixed for 5 years, £0 fee available from HSBC.

Factoring in £500pcm capital repayment this would save about £2500 over 5 years compared to the 2.24% available before BOE panicked.  So not £5000, but still a small mitigation of the risk of House prices being caned after exchange.

And its a dear little place with scope for the Kitchen my wife wants (with a dishwasher, yay!), room for brief friend and family visits, and somewhere safe and dry for me lovely Gixxer.  We've been very patient, but 18 months is a long time to house hunt.

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9 hours ago, Dorkins said:

Bulls always use the "if [asset] really were to fall significantly in price then buying would be the last thing on your mind" line. Seems like projection to me, 'it would be financially catastrophic for me so the same must be true for everybody else too'. Even at low prices there are trades happening so somebody must be buying, that's how we know the price is low.

Not sure I read it this way. It wouldn’t be catastrophic for me and I am thinking the same way ie if the FTSE hits 1000 then survival is likely survival is the issue not the investment.  

However, take your point completely and infact looking at the news this evening rail companies are asking for bailouts and it occurs to me how solvent are the FTSE 100 companies (never mind smaller companies). Companies are often just the shell which make billions each year but after salaries, bonuses and dividends is there anything left in the reserves. Indeed overnight lending by the Fed to banks in the US highlight even banks don’t have an abundance of cash. By cash I mean real assets. 

I make money and I store it in pension, isa, national savings and accumulate for a raining day...but many business do not. 

So maybe there is a real possibility of big declines and a ‘one horse bet’ on a share might be a risk too high. 

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14 minutes ago, Pop321 said:

Not sure I read it this way. It wouldn’t be catastrophic for me and I am thinking the same way ie if the FTSE hits 1000 then survival is likely survival is the issue not the investment.  

It is ridiculous to claim that the UK would be at risk of mass deaths if FTSE hit 1000 points. This is just price deflation, not destruction of real world physical capital. Just as with price inflation there would be winners and losers.

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14 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

It is ridiculous to claim that the UK would be at risk of mass deaths if FTSE hit 1000 points. This is just price deflation, not destruction of real world physical capital. Just as with price inflation there would be winners and losers.

I agree it would be a ridiculous claim and I’m not saying what you think I am saying.

All I am saying is that the FTSE is starting to look good value....caveat is assuming the Virus isn’t as terrible as some might think. If the Virus is terrible and we all need to stay in for 3 years...then a few quid lost on the stock market won’t be the biggest concern anymore. 

Ie FTSE might be close to offering a good deal.....and if it isn’t and things get worse...then who cares anyway? 

It’s not an investment strategy it’s a thought.

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6 hours ago, highcontrast said:

Breathtaking denial.  Looks like a lot of Americans are aggressively wedded to sustained high house prices.  Also no acknowledgement that the inevitable death of millions of old Americans who live in 1s or 2s in large houses is being brought abruptly forward possibly in the form of an acute spike rather than an extended bulge.

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18 hours ago, Yvonne said:

In a similar position to some others on here.  Due to buy a house (there have been delays with planning permission which isn't yet signed off).  Think the impact of this coronavirus will be massive - no one will want to view houses let alone buy them for months....Went to see a house yesterday (as am thinking of pulling out of the other one and wanted to see what else was available) and the agent said they had alot of cancellations for viewings.  Our death toll is currently not huge -  if our death toll starts to look like Italy, think alot of people will go in to lockdown mode as far as possible (whether the government orders it or not).   So restaurants, pubs etc all going to take a huge knock.  Reckon we'll end up with half the population carrying on as usual and the other half going in to lockdown.

I have friends on 0 hours contract who have just had their work cancelled for the next month - which will undoubtedly turn out to be 3 months at least....

Hard to see how the economy isn't going to take a massive nosedive. f

Re the house purchase my problem is the owner of the house would be my potential neighbour - also really love the house and looked for ages....so think if I go to them with a new revised offer they will totally hate me and you don't want that with neighbours.  So think I'll just have to pull out and look for something else....or have them come to me with counter offers - suggestions.  Rock and a hard place in some ways, as would prefer not to have so much money in the bank...and bricks and mortars could be safer, but cannot stomach potentially overpaying by 80k (house I'm buying is 430k).  On the flip side I am actually also glad to have money in the bank in some ways....as at least if my business goes tits up I have cash I can live off.

My sister was due to buy a house and opted to pull out 2 weeks ago because of this virus thing also....

Better to wait unless you got really good deal with massive % off on asking price.

We're looking at 2-3 months of shrinking economy.

Recession could be possible but if virus subsides by May, we may summer bounce in economy.

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11 hours ago, Pop321 said:

I agree it would be a ridiculous claim and I’m not saying what you think I am saying.

All I am saying is that the FTSE is starting to look good value....caveat is assuming the Virus isn’t as terrible as some might think. If the Virus is terrible and we all need to stay in for 3 years...then a few quid lost on the stock market won’t be the biggest concern anymore. 

Ie FTSE might be close to offering a good deal.....and if it isn’t and things get worse...then who cares anyway? 

It’s not an investment strategy it’s a thought.

However, I must concede watching today for 30 minutes....it’s only a brave person who steps into the market at the moment. 

I said there looks to be value out there...but some companies are asking for help already. 

I guess previous recent falls (ie last few decades) have been ‘financial mumbo jumbo’ and really didn’t impact bums on seats. This issue is different and not sure whether printing money and lowering interest rates will improve the economic impact...rather it will just delay it. 

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13 hours ago, hotblack42 said:

1.74% fixed for 5 years, £0 fee available from HSBC.

Factoring in £500pcm capital repayment this would save about £2500 over 5 years compared to the 2.24% available before BOE panicked.  So not £5000, but still a small mitigation of the risk of House prices being caned after exchange.

And its a dear little place with scope for the Kitchen my wife wants (with a dishwasher, yay!), room for brief friend and family visits, and somewhere safe and dry for me lovely Gixxer.  We've been very patient, but 18 months is a long time to house hunt.

Big enough kitchen ...LOL - might be using it a lot more soon !

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Already causing impact.

This silly priced probate is sstc £580,000

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-66398622.html

One next door now on post Covid 19 £450,000

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-78228580.html

An nope I will not be buying either as its hitting the fan now and I am going to move to start cutting costs now in anticipation of 1 month of closure +

 

 

Edited by Fromage Frais
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39 minutes ago, Fromage Frais said:

Already causing impact.

This silly priced probate is sstc £580,000

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-66398622.html

One next door now on post Covid 19 £450,000

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-78228580.html

An nope I will not be buying either as its hitting the fan now and I am going to move to start cutting costs now in anticipation of 1 month of closure +

 

 

corona virus drops all over 

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-78147787.html  

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