Will Corona virus cause a house price crash?

[Bluestone59]

25 minutes ago, Ghostly said:

The issue they have is what to do about the resulting unemployment.  Taxation and the benefit system could both be made massively more simple and efficient but would result in probably 10s of thousands of unemployed government employees.  What will they do with those people? 

@Sithuk - interesting read.  Some of those items have been discussed here regularly for years.  The others we'll never do (which I think the author recognises), like sacrificing rentiers and the banks.  It would be interesting if the government set up a national bank for current accounts and payments systems to avoid reliance on the existing banks.

Isn't that what they already did in the 70s?

National Giro.

Tories sold it off, much to my surprise. To Alliance and Leicester.

The CEO John Stonehouse left his clothes on a beach.

[crumblingcon]

21 minutes ago, Sithuk said:

A long but interesting read from Richard Murphy at Tax Research UK.

https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2020/05/05/people-and-jobs-or-wealth-the-government-has-to-decide-which-to-prioritise-and-there-is-only-one-right-answer/

"In reality, the value implicit in land has already disappeared. It is folly to pretend otherwise. The only reason no one has yet begun to realise this is that we have a completely frozen property market at present. When that reopens prices will, as a matter of fact, tumble. And so too will new rents. All I am saying is that old ones have to follow suit: if we want an economy that generates income in the future then the blunt fact is that we now have to trash our balance sheet. Or rather, we have to accept that it has already been trashed and now deal with the consequences."

 

An interesting read, though I never or I am not going to read all of it?

He is right about an economic crash on it's way and the issues of over priced assets.

The one question I would ask myself and others now, and as prepared as anyone can be I like everyone else will "lose" something  from those pre virus days, do you have a plan that will make you happy with what you have and what this new post virus world will offer you?

50% of the battle, if not more, is going to be not trying to fight the changes and challenges(not hardships), not to have a lifestyle that revolves from you and others spending on dross. I am hoping to buy my home within the next few years that totally revolves around my lifestyle and what I enjoy in life, I could end up  close to penniless and will still get joy from where I intend going, part of it is food related as well so might still have food on the table?, and if people say I am crazy to invest in property right now I will now two things for certain

1. What a f****d up country we were living in where homes were no longer for just living in

2. I would have bought at the right time

[zugzwang]

12 hours ago, crumblingcon said:

What we needed 2007/08 was a recession, and it would have been a bang on time recession that all countries need to kill off dead wood once in a while. Plus it does not do any harm to hurt the electorate a little, reminds them what is good about this country rather than taking it for granted all the time and even slagging it off , when you get lifestyle welfare lowlife complaining that they never got their free replacement cooker for 48 hours or even somebody never got their welfare paid car in the right colour, then you know things are going wrong.

C-19 has already given us a small taste of what we are missing, but that is going to be amplified ten fold in the never several years, I am predicting worse than the 1980's for the simple fact that we tried to make the 2007 recession painless, I am ready for it though.

Fantastic nonsense.

The UK went through an enormous recession 2008-10. The effects of which continued to negatively impact the economy more than a decade later.

 

[stuckinlimbo]

50 minutes ago, Sithuk said:

A long but interesting read from Richard Murphy at Tax Research UK.

https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2020/05/05/people-and-jobs-or-wealth-the-government-has-to-decide-which-to-prioritise-and-there-is-only-one-right-answer/

"In reality, the value implicit in land has already disappeared. It is folly to pretend otherwise. The only reason no one has yet begun to realise this is that we have a completely frozen property market at present. When that reopens prices will, as a matter of fact, tumble. And so too will new rents. All I am saying is that old ones have to follow suit: if we want an economy that generates income in the future then the blunt fact is that we now have to trash our balance sheet. Or rather, we have to accept that it has already been trashed and now deal with the consequences."

 

Thanks for the link, it was really good read. Agree with this 100%

Quote

In that case what is required now are statutory rent holidays. The rest of this year should be required, at least. And thereafter rents should be reduced, drastically, and by law, and right across the board. Eighty per cent cuts may be appropriate. It may be more. Whatever is necessary to ensure business can survive must be done.

 

[Bluestone59]

Just now, Ghostly said:

I must admit I'm quite ignorant about the National Giro, it was sort of before my time and was mostly associated with benefits when I was younger.  I didn't realise it was also a bank.

I believe so, it had current accounts accessed via Post Offices and a headquarters in Bootle.

[Take Me Back To London!]

7 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

Fantastic nonsense.

The UK went through an enormous recession 2008-10. The effects of which continued to negatively impact the economy more than a decade later.

 

The recession that should have happened in 2008-10, to clear out the dead wood as crumbingcon pointed out, never occured due to unprecendent, at the time, co-ordinated interventions of central banks and we ended up with a zombie economy which your chart shows.

[zugzwang]

20 minutes ago, Warlord said:

If they shrank the state your right their would be unemployment however the shock will be short and sharp rather than prolonged (as is often the case with current central banking induced boom/busts.) so the free market will do its thing  you just have to trust it and get out of the way (lower regs, lower taxation).

As i said we had a shock coming out of the ERM however the government lowered taxes and regulations between 92-97 and repaired our finances and the economy only for it to be squandered later.  Now after 20 years of socialism we have high levels of public debt, spending, deficits, unemployment, ZIRP,, QE, bankruptcies, HPI...a complete mess quite frankly.

 

You're out of your f***ing mind.

It's forty years of free market capitalism that got us into this mess! Osborne and Cameron could and should have repaired the roof but they kept on digging, fatally undermining the foundations by using to public money to underwrite an echo housing bubble and gift their criminal friends in the City of London with a decade-long rolling bailout and profiteering opportunity.

So the UK private sector is as hopelessly underwater today as it was in 2007, and no more able to stand upright without State support than it was then.

The ratio of private sector debt/GDP: Britain's decline and fall in a single chart:

 

 

 

[Locke]

5 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

gift their criminal friends in the City of London with a decade-long rolling bailout and profiteering opportunity.

Statism, not capitalism.

6 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

So the UK private sector is as hopelessly underwater today as it was in 2007, and no more able to stand upright without State support than it was then.

Then. It. Should. Be Permitted. To. Collapse.

The government is propping up the bad businesses which is preventing lean, efficient businesses from coming into existence. 

Stop robbing people!

[Locke]

1 hour ago, Ghostly said:

The issue they have is what to do about the resulting unemployment.  Taxation and the benefit system could both be made massively more simple and efficient but would result in probably 10s of thousands of unemployed government employees.  What will they do with those people? 

Those subhuman parasites are the ones sucking the lifeblood out of everyone else. I couldn't care less if, once having to earn their own keep, they literally starve to death on the streets and neither should you.

 

Not only would they do the same to you, they are doing it to you, except they are robbing you at gunpoint, while you are merely asking them to actually produce something someone else would want to buy.

[Warlord]

11 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

You're out of your f***ing mind.

It's forty years of free market capitalism that got us into this mess! Osborne and Cameron could and should have repaired the roof but they kept on digging, fatally undermining the foundations by using to public money to underwrite an echo housing bubble and gift their criminal friends in the City of London with a decade-long rolling bailout and profiteering opportunity.

So the UK private sector is as hopelessly underwater today as it was in 2007, and no more able to stand upright without State support than it was then.

The ratio of private sector debt/GDP: Britain's decline and fall in a single chart:

 

Central banking and easy credit is to blame. As for the bailouts that was a political decision taken by Gordon Brown. He could have let them collapse and let someone else take over. Interestingly, he did let Lehman's collapse.  I am against bailouts

[longgone]

36 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

You're out of your f***ing mind.

It's forty years of free market capitalism that got us into this mess! Osborne and Cameron could and should have repaired the roof but they kept on digging, fatally undermining the foundations by using to public money to underwrite an echo housing bubble and gift their criminal friends in the City of London with a decade-long rolling bailout and profiteering opportunity.

So the UK private sector is as hopelessly underwater today as it was in 2007, and no more able to stand upright without State support than it was then.

 

 

 

+1 

HTB is pure evil it fooked me good and proper. 

[Warlord]

Just now, longgone said:

+1 

HTB is pure evil it fooked me good and proper. 

HTB is a government scheme. Government schemes are evil. Politicians once again intervening in a market. That isnt what I call capitalism. 

[Take Me Back To London!]

27 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

It's forty years of free market capitalism that got us into this mess! Osborne and Cameron could and should have repaired the roof but they kept on digging, fatally undermining the foundations by using to public money to underwrite an echo housing bubble and gift their criminal friends in the City of London with a decade-long rolling bailout and profiteering opportunity.

It was the same with Blair and Brown as well as in the US with Boy Bush, Obama and Trump using tax payer funded socialism for the big boys and capitalism for everyone else.

[Warlord]

2 minutes ago, Take Me Back To London! said:

It was the same with Blair and Brown as well as in the US with Boy Bush, Obama and Trump using tax payer funded socialism for the big boys and capitalism for everyone else.

Notice it doesn't matter who is in charge. I'm no fan of John Major or Ken Clarke (!) but the country was a lot more saner back then .

Edited May 6, 2020 by Warlord

[longgone]

12 minutes ago, Warlord said:

HTB is a government scheme. Government schemes are evil. Politicians once again intervening in a market. That isnt what I call capitalism. 

tax payers money to this chunt. 

 

https://www.ft.com/content/4c23d282-498e-11e9-8b7f-d49067e0f50d

[Take Me Back To London!]

18 minutes ago, Warlord said:

Notice it doesn't matter who is in charge. I'm no fan of John Major or Ken Clarke (!) but the country was a lot more saner back then .

+1

Yes, it was another era back then and might as well be a different planet.  In just those 25-30 years how things have gone unimaginably insaine.

Edited May 6, 2020 by Take Me Back To London!

[Warlord]

1 minute ago, longgone said:

tax payers money to this chunt. 

 

https://www.ft.com/content/4c23d282-498e-11e9-8b7f-d49067e0f50d

Disgusting.

Most of their homes were sold to HTBers.  I wonder what the bung was! 

[longgone]

2 minutes ago, Warlord said:

Disgusting.

Most of their homes were sold to HTBers.  I wonder what the bung was! 

his generous salary  

[Take Me Back To London!]

15 minutes ago, Warlord said:

Disgusting.

Most of their homes were sold to HTBers.  I wonder what the bung was! 

 

[iamnumerate]

42 minutes ago, longgone said:

+1 

HTB is pure evil it fooked me good and proper. 

It is definitely not free market capitalism, not sure what you call it apart from stupid.

Housing benefit is not free market capitalism either.

[longgone]

20 minutes ago, iamnumerate said:

It is definitely not free market capitalism, not sure what you call it apart from stupid.

Housing benefit is not free market capitalism either.

i just see it as blatant theft, is it any different from selling £100 bottles of £3 hand sanitizer because the market demands more product. ?

it`s ok it tax payers money. 

 

[crumblingcon]

1 hour ago, zugzwang said:

Fantastic nonsense.

The UK went through an enormous recession 2008-10. The effects of which continued to negatively impact the economy more than a decade later.

 

I know what a recession feels like, and the time period you gave felt nothing like a recession though technically it was one. I remember very average people going on holiday/s, buying cars and buying all the mods cons they were buying a few years earlier. The rich also got richer, in fact they got far richer, and the fact is people will have no problem remembering the 1980's recession and the boys from the black stuff years, but the recession of 2008-2010 isn't a thing for most people though they will complain about council cut backs etc that never stopped their spending at home.

Were the poorest in society effected though, oh yes, badly.

[iamnumerate]

17 minutes ago, longgone said:

i just see it as blatant theft, is it any different from selling £100 bottles of £3 hand sanitizer because the market demands more product. ?

it`s ok it tax payers money. 

 

I agree but it is not a failure of free market capitalism.

FWIW I don't think free market capitalism is always good and should never be controlled - but in this case it is innocent.

Edited May 6, 2020 by iamnumerate

[longgone]

7 minutes ago, iamnumerate said:

I agree but it is not a failure of free market capitalism.

FWIW I don't free market capitalism is always good and should never be controlled - but in this case it is innocent.

it`s a failure of the public to understand at least what it is. 

[iamnumerate]

1 minute ago, longgone said:

it`s a failure of the public to understand at least what it is. 

Well HPI is bad for most people.  Simple test to see if it is good, do you have more houses than children?

For most people the answer is no, they still like it which worries me a lot and explains our politicians.