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Will Corona virus cause a house price crash?


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50 minutes ago, Warwick-Watcher said:

But they only earn about £85,000 a year. Think of the grade of civil servant that pays for, let alone the salary of a CEO of a FTSE100 company. Pay peanuts (relatively) get monkeys.

Pay big bucks get amoral sociopaths. Not that the current salary does much to exclude them as they can always leverage their connections to get the $$$ afterwards as Blair did.

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23 minutes ago, Hullabaloo82 said:

Really interesting discussion;

I'm a PAYE mug. One of the reasons I don't take the payola and go freelance is the security. I have;

Enhanced redundancy scheme, enhanced sick pay, income protection insurance (x2 personal and work), life cover (also x2), pension, some private health cover (again through work) savings and investment accounts for me, wife and the kids, paid a shit load of tax and NI over the years. 

As it happens, I'm also still working full time (having again gone for career security) so currently getting £0 in support via the government but I could comfortably have looked after me and mine until we were able to ride this out without having to ask for a hand out in the event I did lose my job. 

I'm actually moderately left leaning and I'm really not opposed to the concept of covering people in the short term and trying to prevent businesses going to the wall and making sure people can still eat in extreme cases. 

But guess who's going to have to pay for all this in 6 months time? Will it be large companies through corporation tax, or their owners through dividend tax or self employed people who lived it up on excessive day rates and tax avoidance yet now have nothing to fall back on through increased NICs? (I.e. the real beneficiaries of this largesse). Will it ******. 

It'll be "we're all in together" for us PAYE mugs whilst the sacred "wealth creators" get a let off. As per ******ing usual. 

I hope it does get very ugly for the Tories when it gets to splitting the bill time as I'm sensing that the "squeezed middle" might finally be wising up. 

I was a PAYE mug for 34 years (well a mug for tax purposes)....I left because I was paying more tax than some people earn. P11D benefits put me on a massive negative K code and I was taking home less than £2k a month. It never bothered me because we never really spent money other than on nice budget holidays (including 6 trips to Florida as the kids grew up, super deals with Travel City Direct). 

So at 45 I ramped up the pension to about 80% of earnings, maxed out of share schemes and lived off my savings. Wish I had done that at 40.  Left work a year ago at 50 and it’s bizarre that I have enough saved until I am about 80 (ignoring state pension).

The big difference is now my bank balance goes down every month not up....once you get your head around that then it isn’t so bad. 

On thread, I swing around a bit in the impact of C19. My friend spoke to me this morning and has a small hairdressing business, rents a little shop unit @ £200 per month makes a very modest income profit (I would guess £1.5k a month) and has just received his £10k. That’s him sorted until about November. Will he feel any financial pain, genuinely not sure and wondering how many people will actually be ok. 

I think fundamentally things may change, spending habits, distribution channels to buy from eg more online shopping, maybe more frugal but genuinely not yet sure what the impact is. One thing for sure is we need plenty of employed mugs to keep the plates spinning because the debt will be huge. 

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1 hour ago, Pop321 said:

I was a PAYE mug for 34 years (well a mug for tax purposes)....I left because I was paying more tax than some people earn. P11D benefits put me on a massive negative K code and I was taking home less than £2k a month. It never bothered me because we never really spent money other than on nice budget holidays (including 6 trips to Florida as the kids grew up, super deals with Travel City Direct). 

So at 45 I ramped up the pension to about 80% of earnings, maxed out of share schemes and lived off my savings. Wish I had done that at 40.  Left work a year ago at 50 and it’s bizarre that I have enough saved until I am about 80 (ignoring state pension).

The big difference is now my bank balance goes down every month not up....once you get your head around that then it isn’t so bad. 

On thread, I swing around a bit in the impact of C19. My friend spoke to me this morning and has a small hairdressing business, rents a little shop unit @ £200 per month makes a very modest income profit (I would guess £1.5k a month) and has just received his £10k. That’s him sorted until about November. Will he feel any financial pain, genuinely not sure and wondering how many people will actually be ok. 

I think fundamentally things may change, spending habits, distribution channels to buy from eg more online shopping, maybe more frugal but genuinely not yet sure what the impact is. One thing for sure is we need plenty of employed mugs to keep the plates spinning because the debt will be huge. 

My kids will still be school age by the time I hit 45 but I suspect I will go down a similar road. Sick and tired of footing the bill for the selfish at one end and the feckless at the other. 

With regards to your other points, I've never been what you would call frugal but my wife and I do earn decent money in a relatively low cost of living area (plus live close to family so no childcare costs) so we kind of have a bit of the best of both worlds with regards to being able to save a bit as well as enjoy the finer things every now and again. 

This lockdown experience is really making me realise just how much I do spend on takeaways, pub, football, cinema, holidays etc. Not saying I will row back on all of that because I get a lot out of it but I think I will learn to be more selective about what I do - really enjoying the feeling of the additional cash in bank. 

Whether I'm in any way indicative of the wider public or not I don't know but I could see pubs/casual dining/takeaways etc struggling if so. I've always been a jogger bit I think gyms might be on the way out when people realise they can replace their 60 quid a month or whatever and the hassle of actually going there with chucking some runners on and a quick jog around the neighbourhood which you can more easily fit around your day. 

On the plus side, really loving my garden at the mo and can see pub and s curry being replaced with having people rpund for a barbeque and beers/wine out the fridge. Thinking of getting one of those outdoor pizza ovens too, can see all that type stuff booming. Home entertainment too, as people get a bit more paranoid about leaving the house and want to maximise their home environment. 

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24 minutes ago, rantnrave said:

£1400pcm mortgage and half of the household's earners have been furloughed. What could go wrong?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52229402

 

2 hours ago, Hullabaloo82 said:

Really interesting discussion;

I'm a PAYE mug. One of the reasons I don't take the payola and go freelance is the security. I have;

Enhanced redundancy scheme, enhanced sick pay, income protection insurance (x2 personal and work), life cover (also x2), pension, some private health cover (again through work) savings and investment accounts for me, wife and the kids, paid a shit load of tax and NI over the years. 

As it happens, I'm also still working full time (having again gone for career security) so currently getting £0 in support via the government but I could comfortably have looked after me and mine until we were able to ride this out without having to ask for a hand out in the event I did lose my job. 

I'm actually moderately left leaning and I'm really not opposed to the concept of covering people in the short term and trying to prevent businesses going to the wall and making sure people can still eat in extreme cases. 

But guess who's going to have to pay for all this in 6 months time? Will it be large companies through corporation tax, or their owners through dividend tax or self employed people who lived it up on excessive day rates and tax avoidance yet now have nothing to fall back on through increased NICs? (I.e. the real beneficiaries of this largesse). Will it ******. 

It'll be "we're all in together" for us PAYE mugs whilst the sacred "wealth creators" get a let off. As per ******ing usual. 

I hope it does get very ugly for the Tories when it gets to splitting the bill time as I'm sensing that the "squeezed middle" might finally be wising up. 

 

I'm not sure if there anything wrong with being a PAYE mug. At least you have perm employment which I'm afraid is going to be a rare thing in the coming months.  

As for who is going to pay for all this it's going to be everyone through higher taxes and worst of all INFLATION , the biggest hidden tax there is. Your  raise should you get one will be a pittance while the cost of living increases so everyone will feel the squeeze. 

The problem with inflation is that its always the less well off that bears the brunt or those on fixed incomes like pensioners. It's very cruel form of hidden taxation but this is how our politicians operate. Instead of being honest they bring out the printing press to finance more borrowing and an ever increasing deficit. We were still running a deficit from the last recession in 2008 so now we will see much more 'austerity' and public services that people rely on will be underfunded and starved for decades to come.

It's no way to run a country but the Treasury and the Bank of England are to blame. The endless boom/bust cycles they operate leaves the economy in ruins with their policies of ZIRP, bailouts, deficits, debt and QE ,  The rich and connected benefit most from these policies.

 If only the government adhered to what most sensible families do  and lived within its means i.e only spend what can be raised through taxation and tariffs  we would be much better off. However this doesn't suit their masters/donors so they will never willingly be honest.

 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, rantnrave said:

£1400pcm mortgage and half of the household's earners have been furloughed. What could go wrong?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52229402

She's an auditor at PWC in Manchester

 I don't envy the long hours and long commute, so don't have a problem with these people, choices.

But a £1400 mortgage. Wage slave. Best of luck to them.

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3 minutes ago, Si1 said:

She's an auditor at PWC in Manchester

 I don't envy the long hours and long commute, so don't have a problem with these people, choices.

But a £1400 mortgage. Wage slave. Best of luck to them.

But they are overpaying so it is not the same as 25 years (not sure how many years)

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4 hours ago, Warwick-Watcher said:

But they only earn about £85,000 a year. Think of the grade of civil servant that pays for, let alone the salary of a CEO of a FTSE100 company. Pay peanuts (relatively) get monkeys.

Money has nothing to do with it.....look at the nurses they earn a fraction and do an excellent job, ask Boris he will tell you......nobody should be doing a job that is above their ability or where interests are biased.......the peter principle.;)

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The property market after Covid-19

 

From what we can tell at this time, the number of tenants looking for property locally during the summer looks likely to be at or above normal, with a lot of pent up demand. We expect rent levels should be maintained and to be very busy once we are able to trade normally.

 

During March, the sales market was exceptionally busy and we were anticipating price rises of up to 10% in the spring. That was of course before Covid-19 struck, so we don't see that the increase will now happen. However, from what we can tell talking to the large number of buyers we have registered, demand for property is still going to be very high and so we expect to see plenty of activity immediately when the lock-down ends. We predict that we will still achieve very good prices for property, at much the same level as we were at the beginning of the year.

local agent in south west London sent this nonsense out to me

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27 minutes ago, iamnumerate said:

But they are overpaying so it is not the same as 25 years (not sure how many years)

ah. got a buffer then. reasonable enough people.

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Some more fantasy economics here:

https://www.homesandproperty.co.uk/property-news/house-prices-uk-coronavirus-lockdown-a138086.html

Five-year house price growth forecast

  2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Cumulative
2019 forecast 1% 4.5% 3% 3% 3% +15.3%
Scenario one -5% 5% 8% 4% 4% +15.4%
Scenario two -10% 4% 12% 6.5% 3% +15.0%

Source: Savills

Surely this makes little sense and is actually encouraging the demise of estage agents - if there will be such a dramatic rise in prices in 2022 then who the hell is going to sell unless forced to in the next year or so? Transactions would dry up surely?

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Friends fb post which I think is a well thought out summary of the current state of play:

 

"Seeing loads of idiots in the UK property space saying that this is the bottom for UK residential property, there's no more stock market crashing to come and that you need to BUY BUY Buy, 

I urge you NOT to buy residential property if you're doing it for investment purposes. Same for stocks, it doesn't affect me whether stocks go up or down. So this really is a no-agenda stance for me here. I just want to be your dose of realism in this hypey-emotionally-charged topic as UK citizens seem to be born with the idea that property always goes up!

Also before I start, if you just want to buy a house to live in and aren't fussed about going into negative equity then sure, crack on.

So, these 'BUY BUY BUY' people are suffering from:
- Conflicting interests. Their living may be from property training or they may be mortgage advisors or estate agents etc so they stand to lose income if people don't buy.

- Probably suffering from Dunning-Krueger effect where they have little knowledge of the markets but high confidence in thinking that they do. Perhaps maybe because they've done well over the last 10 years in property but are unaware of larger macro-economics cycles and trends.

- They have a terribly thin understanding of global macro-economics and have no idea what's actually happening behind the scenes right now.

Other posts I've done explain why we have MUCH more stock market falling to come. But here is why UK residential property has more falling to come:

1.) Bit of background info. The predominant reason why we've had a booming housing market since 2009 is mainly due to ridiculous currency supply expansion as Central Banks tried to 'print' their way out of the sub-prime mortgage collapse. That credit flowed into the banking and property market. It created artificial stock market rallying which made people feel happy, construction firms got lots of credit and it started lots of building. There was also a converging of Millennials entering the period of their demographic spending wave where they were buying their first homes. So there was actually an increase in demand. Combined with the glut of cheap credit in the banking sector and big builders simply exacerbated this demand, they were offering lots of fancy mortgages and developers had the time of their lives.

2.) It's fundamentally pivotal that you understand what makes UK house prices go up and down. And it's NOT by the conventional thought of Demand vs Supply. There have been many times in history throughout the world where there's been a massive lack of supply and house prices still crash. And in the UK right now there's actually a lack of supply. Some reports say up to 3-5m houses need building. So many people have read headlines like this and then quickly developed an uninformed opinion that property can only go up. Wrong. The single main reason why house prices go up here (and the US) is due to mortgage-issuance!

a.) People get approved for mortgages and so they go and 'buy' a house. (Side note, I always cringe when people say they've bought a house. They haven't. It's the lender's house and it isn't theirs until they're mortgage-free. Which rarely ever happens. You’re just a debt-slave until you pay it off). The more people that are issued a mortgage ('buy' a house) and that this 'buying' cadence maintains or increases, then house prices go up. (Over 73% of house 'purchases' are done via mortgages). But it's a self-licking lolly because the more mortgages issued = rising house prices = the more 'equity' the banks have, so they can lend more and also more developers can get access to more funding to build more houses etc.

b.) But then final macrocycles eventually kick in and catch up. Eventually, you get into the situation where lenders struggle to find suitable borrowers, they then may soften criteria and may even give 100% mortgages etc, but eventually, mortgage issuance decreases and therefore house 'purchases' decrease and so house prices slide. OR you get into the situation where something happens in the credit markets and so lenders abruptly stop lending. OR you get into the situation where the finances of the masses get clobbered and so people just stop buying/up levelling their homes and hunker down.

Well, what's happening now is all of those situations. And what we've seen so far is simply the hors d'oeuvre of what's inbound.

So if I've confused you so far, all you need to remember is that if the amount of mortgages issued decrease, then house prices start to decrease. Albeit with a bit of a lag. And it's that 'lag of naivety' that catches a lot of property investors out. Just like during the roaring 2000s and everyone was a property investor and then the bend at the end came in 07/08 and it ruined a lot of people. Well now we've had the roaring 20teens and now is the beginning of the bend at the end. Remember, the trend is your friend……..until the bend at the end...

c.) So now we are in a situation where 'quality borrowers' have dried up. Banks have so much toxic debt on their balance sheet that they don't want to lend to people. The government wants the party to continue so it tries to entice banks to loosen mortgage eligibility criteria. I won't be surprised to see proper 100% mortgages or 110% mortgages like in 2008. But everyone's finances have been hit hard and so the whole market is now frozen. No more buying, no more selling. (This freeze of prices will also catch some people out).

But remember, less mortgage issuance = prices drop and there's the biggest economic storm ever upon us and it won't be long before a major bank goes bust or needs bailing out. (Keep your eyes on a major property builder/lender or Deutsche Bank). This will be the final blow to mortgage issuance and property prices will plummet in general. More so with the higher-end houses.

3.) Also don’t forget that in market crashes, it’s the middle-class that get wiped out. Not the lower-class. The lower class typically have no market exposure and aren’t the ones going out and getting £150k+ mortgages. And it’s the lower class that typically get bailed out with social programs when shit really hits the fans. But it’s the middle-class that get obliterated and it’s that demographic that does the bulk of house-buying. Also everyone has had a big reality slap that they need 3-6 months rainy day fund due to income insecurity. So what we will see is that people who were saving up for a deposit, will now be reluctant to blow £10-50k on a house deposit and instead be more frugal and think twice about buying stuff.

4.) Also mortgage delinquency rates are exploding in the Western world right now due to this economic/pandemic debacle. So we are now entering an eerily similar set up to what happened in 2006/7/8 where people starting forsaking their mortgages en masse. Evictions and the house going back to the lender take some time to play out which then creates another lag which catches people out. But when houses go back to the lender, the don’t do anything fancy. They offload the properties as fast as they can as it’s a big old negative weight on their books. So they simply package up hundreds or thousands of delinquent properties into a security and then flog that security on the markets hoping there are other banks or big investors that want to buy a small town :-S But these are essentially junk bonds/junk assets. So no one buys them, or if they do get bought, they’re at a massive discount. So this immediately drops overall house prices.

5.) Long story short, in general, I’m massively bearish on UK, US and Canadian property prices.

I’m personally going to wait until we see the equity markets capitulate (something like a 70-80% crash from top of drop) and then we will quickly see metaphorical blood in the streets as the media propagates the scale of this crash.

Debt destruction (delinquencies) is actually a form of currency supply contraction and so there will be scary signs of monetary deflation and so the Gov will shit themselves and do even more ridiculous stimulus to bat away deflation (which is what actually kills Governments). The insidious thing that happens here when deflation kicks in is that countries start defaulting on their obligations. So they go into stimulus overdrive. Then big inflationary effects kick in and accelerate out of control and combined with countries falling into junk ratings and defaulting on obligations, interest rates then zoom up. This is the final nail in the coffin for a nation. A central bank like the Bank of England can control interest rates in a small localised range, but it’s the global bond market that really dictates rates. Regardless of rate increase mitigation measures. Which is why you see events like Greece rates rising from 4% to 23% in a year! Anyway, when rates rise, that’s the big property price crash instigator. And this simply exacerbates the current downward cycle of people forsaking their mortgages.

For example: On a £200k Standard Variable Rate mortgage, for every 1% rates, go up, the homeowner’s mortgage goes up an extra £120 per month roughly. So if rates go up even slightly to 3% then the homeowner will have to fork out an extra £360 per month just to keep their house. And most people can’t afford an extra £60, let alone an extra £360 per month! It’s all very scary.

Anywho, during this crazy stimulus, I’ll personally try to borrow as much cheap/free credit as possible to then immediately put it in non-inflationary assets like land/some property outright, Bitcoin, bullion and de-levered cash-flowing businesses. The big inflationary effects will eventually trickle down into the economy and simply inflate the prices of these assets. 

That’s my plan at least. Remember, history doesn’t always repeat itself but it really does rhyme rather well as human nature and government actions never change. So for the love of Elon, please don’t just go out and buy a house to rent out like every man and his dog is doing at the moment. You’ll get roasted and stuck in negative equity.

I feel like a meteorologist at the moment trying to warn some farmers to not plant seeds and refrain from buying an extra tractor. And they’re like “I’ve been farming all my life, I know more than you about farming!!!!” Meanwhile, oblivious to the farmer, the biggest hurricane in history is inbound just beyond the horizon… Time to hunker down folks and wait for the dust to settle before wasting a wad load of capital on a deposit!"

 

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8 hours ago, Warlord said:

You make a good point Pop and this is one i've wrestled with myself.

The gov't has enforced the lockdown so it's not people's fault and many say since it's a gov't lockdown there should be compensation until things open up agan.

I've come to the conclusion that their must be an unemployment benefit for people who no fault of their own lose their jobs. However my problem is they're borrowing the money and putting it on the tab. What they should do is make cuts elsewhere to the massive government we have and fully fund the program or raise taxes temporarily to pay for it.  That  is the honest way to deal with this situation. Borrowing, bailouts, ZIRP, and inflation is way more harmful and deceitful. 

At some point we are going have to start taking money off people rather than adding to the debt all the time, and that money borrowed usually ends up in the pockets of the richest in society. I am not sure if we take more from the top 1-10 or even top 25%, but we cannot keep increasing our national debt. And I have read somewhere that there is probably £Trillions in tax havens, someone really needs to pull their finger out.

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2 hours ago, Hullabaloo82 said:

My kids will still be school age by the time I hit 45 but I suspect I will go down a similar road. Sick and tired of footing the bill for the selfish at one end and the feckless at the other. 

With regards to your other points, I've never been what you would call frugal but my wife and I do earn decent money in a relatively low cost of living area (plus live close to family so no childcare costs) so we kind of have a bit of the best of both worlds with regards to being able to save a bit as well as enjoy the finer things every now and again. 

This lockdown experience is really making me realise just how much I do spend on takeaways, pub, football, cinema, holidays etc. Not saying I will row back on all of that because I get a lot out of it but I think I will learn to be more selective about what I do - really enjoying the feeling of the additional cash in bank. 

Whether I'm in any way indicative of the wider public or not I don't know but I could see pubs/casual dining/takeaways etc struggling if so. I've always been a jogger bit I think gyms might be on the way out when people realise they can replace their 60 quid a month or whatever and the hassle of actually going there with chucking some runners on and a quick jog around the neighbourhood which you can more easily fit around your day. 

On the plus side, really loving my garden at the mo and can see pub and s curry being replaced with having people rpund for a barbeque and beers/wine out the fridge. Thinking of getting one of those outdoor pizza ovens too, can see all that type stuff booming. Home entertainment too, as people get a bit more paranoid about leaving the house and want to maximise their home environment. 

This lockdown has not taught me anything I didn't know anyway about being frugal and getting good value for my $, and not learnt much about quality of life that I did not know anyway. For example in my 1 hour outside exercising I tend to go running between 5 and 7 miles, even in my remote village it feels like I am the only person in the world as I run down the centre of the road, and I love it ?, If I had not decided to do it before it is definitely going to happen now, I am off to a small holding in the far North somewhere even more remote that I am now, I hate the fast pace now

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On 4/23/2020 at 4:30 PM, Si1 said:

Yes. But that's the miracle economy that Mark Carney and others built. What could possibly go wrong....

Lets go back 40 years.  That was the massive change in economic thinking.  We have had 40 years of speculation, deregulation, dis-housing of people, selling of valuable state assets, often to favoured 'city' chums at discount rates, 40 years of insane inflation in house prices (apart from a blip in the 90's) and 40 years of polarizing the people against each other. Nothing to do with Tory/Lab but Tory started it and Lab should have known better.   Also 40 years of setting us up for massive failure and collapse due the precarious nature of the bubbles and risks built into the economy and now all of our health (Every single one of these issues including corona-virus has been dealt with in a cavalier and dismissive indifference by the Tory party in particular)  All this to prove some economic-political dogma.

Take the Norwegians as an example of what should have been done 40 years ago when North sea oil started to flow and Germany as an example of manufacturing.  Wont ever happen under the tories as it would disprove their religion of divide and conquer, upstairs/downstairs and the pleasure they get from seeing as much of the population as possible begging for crappy jobs or the dole. I do hope the next iteration of the Labour party is better.

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1 hour ago, steve99 said:

Lets go back 40 years.  That was the massive change in economic thinking.  We have had 40 years of speculation, deregulation, dis-housing of people, selling of valuable state assets, often to favoured 'city' chums at discount rates, 40 years of insane inflation in house prices (apart from a blip in the 90's) and 40 years of polarizing the people against each other. Nothing to do with Tory/Lab but Tory started it and Lab should have known better.   Also 40 years of setting us up for massive failure and collapse due the precarious nature of the bubbles and risks built into the economy and now all of our health (Every single one of these issues including corona-virus has been dealt with in a cavalier and dismissive indifference by the Tory party in particular)  All this to prove some economic-political dogma.

Take the Norwegians as an example of what should have been done 40 years ago when North sea oil started to flow and Germany as an example of manufacturing.  Wont ever happen under the tories as it would disprove their religion of divide and conquer, upstairs/downstairs and the pleasure they get from seeing as much of the population as possible begging for crappy jobs or the dole. I do hope the next iteration of the Labour party is better.

How long were Labour in Govt over that period?

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50 minutes ago, Roman Roady said:

How long were Labour in Govt over that period?

Thirteen years - when house prices quadrupled and buy to let landlord numbers grew ten fold.

When the Tories left office in 1997 house prices were affordable to even those on low salaries - and buy to let was what you did at your local bathroom shop. 

So to pretend Labour didn't play a huge role in where we have got to is of course complete nonsense! 'They should have known better' - wasn't that their campaign song in 1997?!!!!

Edited by MARTINX9
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I hope they fall but where I’m looking I feel like they’ll be insulated.  When this thing ends it’s going to feel like I’m getting out of prison after a long stint.  I’ve got so much pent up demand flowing through my veins.  I mean, I’m not going to buy a place but I’ll do a lot of other stuff.
 

Also, in the hot mic clip the guy said 0.2-0.3 fatality rate, if that’s true why the hell are we doing this?  It’s made me realise what I took for granted certainly.  

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56 minutes ago, MARTINX9 said:

Thirteen years - when house prices quadrupled and buy to let landlord numbers grew ten fold.

When the Tories left office in 1997 house prices were affordable to even those on low salaries - and buy to let was what you did at your local bathroom shop. 

So to pretend Labour didn't play a huge role in where we have got to is of course complete nonsense! 'They should have known better' - wasn't that their campaign song in 1997?!!!!

Their campaign song was "Things can only get better" - turned out to be wrong :(.

Unless  you wanted to be a Landlord!!!

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1 hour ago, Roman Roady said:

How long were Labour in Govt over that period?

10 years I think, I also said ''Nothing to do with Tory/Lab but Tory started it and Lab should have known better''

Blair/Brown carried on with neo liberal economic policy (ie the cr*p that has caused most of our economic and social problems depending to what degree it is inflicted) with a big dose of progressive social policy.  Lets say Damage done Tory:Labour 5:1 regardless of the fact that Labour was there for 1/4 of the time they were no where nearly as regressive and destructive as the Tories have been.

ps, I am not a partisan voter. I will vote for the best worst option every time.

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1 hour ago, MARTINX9 said:

Thirteen years - when house prices quadrupled and buy to let landlord numbers grew ten fold.

When the Tories left office in 1997 house prices were affordable to even those on low salaries - and buy to let was what you did at your local bathroom shop. 

So to pretend Labour didn't play a huge role in where we have got to is of course complete nonsense! 'They should have known better' - wasn't that their campaign song in 1997?!!!!

In the early 90's house prices went down on account of a major recession and banks were repossessing houses left right and centre, we have two lots of friends that lost their houses at this time. The banks and the government had zero sympathy for those getting tossed on the street and many of them in debt for the next 15 years or more.  Nothing to do with the ambitions of the Tory party, they wanted house prices to the moon. Also what have they done in the last 10 years to make housing affordable?  help to buy? which filled the bonus pockets of the parasite building companies and land bankers,  they have never wanted affordable housing. Labour was negligent in carrying on with Tory economic policy, ie neo liberal tripe and having faith in the bankers.

Edited by steve99
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I think prices will only come down appreciably when the economy absolutely implodes and money printing can't hold the mess together any more.

As long as there is some sort of semblance of Central Bank control, the housing market will be pumped to high heaven as a means of consumer credit creation.

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1 minute ago, Sour Mash said:

I think prices will only come down appreciably when the economy absolutely implodes and money printing can't hold the mess together any more.

As long as there is some sort of semblance of Central Bank control, the housing market will be pumped to high heaven as a means of consumer credit creation.

Yes, I wonder what their next trick is?  nominal negative interest rates and double help to buy?  so long as it benefits banks, builders and housing portfolios it will be done.

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  • 433 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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