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Will Corona virus cause a house price crash?


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47 minutes ago, MancTom said:

The number of tests is also decreasing with time though - we just don't have the capacity to do them it seems.

Allegedly number of tests will ramp up from 1.5k to 10k in the next days....so I would expect cases to jump back up, given my first sentence?

OTOH as someone else mentioned...we may have been better at tracing contacts, and there is a real effect w.r.t Italy. I have read in Italy there was a "super spreader" on the lose for a long time, which they could and should have tested and quarantined. i.e. they tried to trace and they messed up.

Two weeks ago, the number of cases in the UK was ahead of Italy, I believe.

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2 hours ago, stuckmojo said:

I think there will be an impact but also an issue with only forced sales coming onto the market. I'm viewing a house on Saturday but considering cancelling.  IF I were to make offers now they would be absolutely cut throat. Like 30/40% off. 

What's to stop people from pulling up the drawbridge and not putting houses for sale until 'the market has picked up'?

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1 minute ago, rantnrave said:

What's to stop people from pulling up the drawbridge and not putting houses for sale until 'the market has picked up'?

They'll have been dead 20 years.  10 years before that spent tending a big garden and cleaning rooms they don't need instead of chatting in the lounge and gardens of a high end home for the elderly?

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32 minutes ago, rantnrave said:

What's to stop people from pulling up the drawbridge and not putting houses for sale until 'the market has picked up'?

That's how crashes work. Transactions collapse. Life in the trough.

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I would say that we would loosely fit the category of BTL as we purchased a 2 bed ground floor flat 5 years ago. We bought it intending to move into ourselves in a few years time as it's a ground floor,  I have ongoing lower back issues and my wife is 66 this year,  so seems like a good downsize move. So, yes, we have tennants, very good ones and we have been  in contact with them to assure them that whatever,  emphasise whatever measures we have to take to ensure that they have an affordable roof over their heads will be taken. This of course includes taking a financial hit ourselves and providing Barclays don't go nuts and insist that we sell up pronto, thus forcing them out, we'll do what's needed. We're lucky that we have no mortgage on our current house and can afford to do this as circumstances stand. I appreciate that this puts us in a small group of people, but morally we couldn't take any other course. After all, we took this course of action and have to take the consequences, be they good or bad. So there you go, our (and their) situation accurately and honestly displayed,  we have nothing to hide.

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1 hour ago, MARTINX9 said:

Yes no help at all for private sector renters yet who are the most vulnerable people of all housing wise as they lack security and live at risk of eviction at two months notice even if they pay their rent. They are most likely to be living pay check to pay check and if they don’t work can’t pay the bills. 

Will landlords get mortgage holidays but still be expecting tenants to pay rent?

There are nearly 10 million private renters if they can’t work or fall ill - what help for them - nothing so far?

Quite, what goes around comes around.?

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16 minutes ago, solentmuppet said:

I would say that we would loosely fit the category of BTL as we purchased a 2 bed ground floor flat 5 years ago. We bought it intending to move into ourselves in a few years time as it's a ground floor,  I have ongoing lower back issues and my wife is 66 this year,  so seems like a good downsize move. So, yes, we have tennants, very good ones and we have been  in contact with them to assure them that whatever,  emphasise whatever measures we have to take to ensure that they have an affordable roof over their heads will be taken. This of course includes taking a financial hit ourselves and providing Barclays don't go nuts and insist that we sell up pronto, thus forcing them out, we'll do what's needed. We're lucky that we have no mortgage on our current house and can afford to do this as circumstances stand. I appreciate that this puts us in a small group of people, but morally we couldn't take any other course. After all, we took this course of action and have to take the consequences, be they good or bad. So there you go, our (and their) situation accurately and honestly displayed,  we have nothing to hide.

Have you thought of selling your current home to a tenant at 10% discount to the equivalent home in your street, "taking a financial hit".Helping a tenant is same as helping your tenant. You have been farming a real worker for past 5 yrs, also have a set a floor price of that property, so please don't believe that you are taking a financial hit.

 

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Okay, well, when I don't have to work any more, as in we have to live where we are at the moment, it's 17 miles to work, no public transport. Unless I decide to leave for work at 5.30 am and catch a bus to take me 5 miles up the road, followed by a 3 mile walk or cycle, which means covering that 3 miles in (with the current bus schedule ) in7 minutes or wait an hour for the next bus which doesn't pass the hospital, meaning a) a1.5 mile walk or cycle and b) I'm going to be very late for an 8 am start in the operating theatre. I can drive it in 45 mins with the current levels of traffic. Selling up and evicting the tennants means a minimum 80 minute drive as believe me, public transport would take me a minimum of three hours to get to work, assuming (and I ain't that dumb!) that it all runs on time, connections smooth etc. So no, we can't  sell up at this time. Now, WHEN we DO sell, the property will be priced below the (no doubt) ridiculous figure the ea will suggest. We could do with the highest price possible as we have no children and no rellies to look after us as we age, so will have to pay for care if it comes to that, which is only fair, I'm sure you agree. HOWEVER,  if you think we're going to overpay for the sort of 5h1thole that I have experience of with (now deceased) parents and in laws , you've got another think coming. I'll just say that most of the first 25 years of my life weren't pleasant and I'll be damned if the last 10 years or so will be the same. So this may mean that we have to pay a premium for somewhere decent and there goes the money left over from the house sale. I hope that sets out my position in a way you can appreciate. Oh and by the way, if the bank gets funny, they will probably make us use all our savings to increase our equity in the flat, bye bye our safety net. That's the hit we'd have to take, or maybe even equity release (on THEIR  terms, no doubt) to pay off one mortgage,  leaving us with another. Er, no thanks, I then have to keep on working.....and that means no move, capische?This to Gush. 

I

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13 minutes ago, Smiley George said:

If this doesn't cause a HPC, then you can pretty sure the chances of one ever happening are pretty slim.

If the financial crisis which is unraveling before our very eyes doesn't cause a correction in house prices, I'd be amazed.

I thought that the day after the Brexit vote...

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22 minutes ago, Smiley George said:

If this doesn't cause a HPC, then you can pretty sure the chances of one ever happening are pretty slim.

If the financial crisis which is unraveling before our very eyes doesn't cause a correction in house prices, I'd be amazed.

The counter argument is that market interest rates could stay low forever and that's what's sustaining the market.

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22 minutes ago, Si1 said:

The counter argument is that market interest rates could stay low forever and that's what's sustaining the market.

Yep, I can see that as a valid outcome as well. 

Boris has a perfect opportunity to remove the props and allow the market to correct and has a brilliant scapegoat in Coronavirus. He could say no more HTB we're stopping that and redirecting that money to the NHS. Keeping FTB's alive is a higher priority than propping up the housing market - and who could argue?

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Will Coronovirus cause a House Price Crash? No, of course not.

But it is the catalyst for the collapse of an untenable and incoherent international monetary system and its endemic asset bubbles and distortions.

This will cause a House Price Crash.

It seems like the end game has started, but even the demoralised bears can't see it yet. Many of us have been preparing for this for a long time, so it is quite shocking to see it unravel so quickly.

Prepare for the central planners' "whatever it takes" phase, much quicker than anticipated.

 

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Just now, Smiley George said:

Yep, I can see that as a valid outcome as well. 

Boris has a perfect opportunity to remove the props and allow the market to correct and has a brilliant scapegoat in Coronavirus. He could say no more HTB we're stopping that and redirecting that money to the NHS. Keeping FTB's alive is a higher priority than propping up the housing market - and who could argue?

Long term bond interest rates are not set by govt. It's not an artificial govt prop.

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2 hours ago, solentmuppet said:

So there you go, our (and their) situation accurately and honestly displayed,  we have nothing to hide.

Good to hear.  Although the default setting here tends to be 'Landlords Bad; Tenants Good' we all know its far more nuanced than that.  I hope many other landlords will be as understanding.

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5 hours ago, TopBanana101 said:

Cash-flow.  Holiday lets will feel the pinch first if this escalates.    

https://www.property118.com/budget-implications-on-holiday-lets/

image.png.1a2c7a91c1127c23675b1e6dda114c26.png

A grant... For a holiday let? Jesus wept. 

Many let's will only be busy at peak season, if they lose this year's bookings it could be another year or so til the next pile of money comes in. Depending on how badly people are hit by whatever happens in between times. 

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13 minutes ago, regprentice said:

A grant... For a holiday let? Jesus wept. 

Many let's will only be busy at peak season, if they lose this year's bookings it could be another year or so til the next pile of money comes in. Depending on how badly people are hit by whatever happens in between times. 

I want compensation!

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14 hours ago, rantnrave said:

Can you back that up re the curve for Italy and Spain?

UK was very quick to trace contacts for the first cases. That could have a very big impact in preventing an Italy like scenario.

Except for Japan, we all seem to be on the same trajectory. Almost 600 in the UK now. That's what exponential growth does.

Coronavirus growth rate comparison.jpeg

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On 12/03/2020 at 08:23, hurlerontheditch said:

people wont be forced out. poor home owners got ill and will be bailed out, whether that is payment holidays or refinancing adding another few years to the mortgage. this is what will happen

That will still add interest to the debt which must be repaid. What we need is a rise in interest rates over which the BoE have no control or alternative to implement.

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21 hours ago, Smiley George said:

Yep, I can see that as a valid outcome as well. 

Boris has a perfect opportunity to remove the props and allow the market to correct and has a brilliant scapegoat in Coronavirus. He could say no more HTB we're stopping that and redirecting that money to the NHS. Keeping FTB's alive is a higher priority than propping up the housing market - and who could argue?

He won't do it. He's a socialist. Part of the budget is housebuilding. Most if not all MP's are all into BTL and multiple property investment.

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