Will Corona virus cause a house price crash?

[captainb]

7 minutes ago, dirtysteve said:

 

 

I don’t particularly love this house but it’s an area we’re looking at and I’m dismayed to see such HP inflation. Zoopla’s guide would need to crash 20% just to get back to 2015 ?.

Wages have increased weekly ~15% since 2015, excluding any changes in the cost of credit (gone down), and local supply issues that is you base case.

To just say look prices were cheaper in 2015,2010,2008,2000,1995,1885 etc. is meaningless without context.

[Smiley George]

1 hour ago, dirtysteve said:

 

Sold in 2015 for £1.1M. Back on market (maybe forced covid sale) for £1.35M.

Zoopla’s estimate though is £1.46M or somewhere between £1.31M and £1.61M

A couple of months ago Zoopla did something to their pricing algorithm which caused price estimates on houses I was watching to go up by between 10% and 20% overnight. They were already on the high side compared with actual sold data in that area. 

its completely worthless, and seemed like a quite obvious attempt to anchor higher prices ahead of potential falls. 

[12fixer]

NIMBYs like this are not helping https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wWTP1Fcv6ao

[12fixer]

 

[longgone]

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/property/article-8435501/Will-property-market-lockdown.html

 

House viewings may be stopped and the property market moved back into lockdown as buyers and sellers fail to take adequate safety precautions, an industry boss has warned.

The warning comes from the boss of a trade body representing estate agents, who claimed that some house viewings were taking place without safety measures such as social distancing.

Mark Hayward, chief executive of NAEA Propertymark, said: 'We're hearing that some buyers and sellers are choosing to totally ignore safety measures, meaning that agents are left with no choice but to cancel viewings.'

He added that there were still some 'unscrupulous agents turning a blind eye' and allowing viewings to go ahead without sufficient precautions.  

[Quiet Guy]

On 18/06/2020 at 00:29, Deckard said:

I already put forward my argument in previous posts.

If a HPC doesn't happen this time, I am ready to accept that it never will.

I believe that the next few months are key, that's why I started posting again after a long hiatus.

IMO it needs at least a year, probably two.

On 18/06/2020 at 00:49, Deckard said:

I believe this time the combination of high unemployment and tighter lending criteria is likely to cause a HPC. That is why I came back here. Good enough for you as an argument?

I believe unemployment is (unfortunately) the key. If unemployment jumps after the end of the furlough and doesn't do a 'V' recovery, some households will face the choice of selling or being repossessed after approximately 18 months have passed. Not very nice but that's what we're looking at. I'd be fascinated to know what the lenders think.

I say tighter lending criteria is a consequence of the anticipated effects of unemployment by the lenders. If I'm right, lending criteria will just constrict like a noose. Difficult times.

[user not found]

I've been watching Rightmove avidly... A trickle of houses but no sign of good value. Things going SSTC at silly prices (will see if the bank/surveyor agrees with the sale price!)

I know it'll be the end of furlough that triggers the crash proper (whatever that turns out to be, could be minuscule), but it's all very depressing at the moment.

[dugsbody]

On 18/06/2020 at 00:49, Deckard said:

I believe this time the combination of high unemployment and tighter lending criteria is likely to cause a HPC. That is why I came back here. Good enough for you as an argument?

Now, would you be so kind as to clarify why you bother posting, since you don't believe a HPC will ever happen? It's a perfectly legitimate question, can you please just answer?

I have a question for you. Who appointed you and and others the gatewkeepers of who is allowed to post here and what opinions they must hold?

[Warlord]

Jeeez.

Relax.

All bubbles burst eventually. The HPC will happen one way or another. No one can tell you when though 

[crashmonitor]

2 hours ago, Sausage said:

I've been watching Rightmove avidly... A trickle of houses but no sign of good value. Things going SSTC at silly prices (will see if the bank/surveyor agrees with the sale price!)

I know it'll be the end of furlough that triggers the crash proper (whatever that turns out to be, could be minuscule), but it's all very depressing at the moment.

Tend to agree. I think restriction of supply and 3 months pent up demand is holding things up. We are sold (SSTC) and scheduled to complete end of July. We would find it difficult to buy a house even if we wanted to, that really puts a temporary premium on the very few motivated sellers.

(1) At my latitude the whole of Wales ( with the 5 miles rule) is effectively closed.

(2) We quite like the idea of buying in the  east too ( Lincolnshire) but many of the sellers are blue pilled boomers that aren't even doing viewings.

(3) We will probably go STR but many people in our position probably wouldn't like that insecurity during a Pandemic.

(4) We have even got refused viewing houses because some vendors are only accepting cash or first time buyers. ( that's even though we would be cash if our chain holds, tbf that is always a big if).

(5) And indeed furlough bennies and tens of billions in redundancy payouts will hold things up too.

 

So yep not looking like YOY falls til the backend. Patience maybe rewarded who knows. It's probably the first time for a few years that HPC is worth following ( as per Killer Bunny) as opposed ti watching paint dry. I think things might get interesting.

Edited June 24, 2020 by crashmonitor

[First time on the ladder]

I see the market analysts and zoopla etc are telling us how great the market is again.

 

In my area, only around 3 houses listed in the last 3 weeks have sold. Feels like a slowdown already to me.

[user not found]

2 minutes ago, First time on the ladder said:

I see the market analysts and zoopla etc are telling us how great the market is again.

 

In my area, only around 3 houses listed in the last 3 weeks have sold. Feels like a slowdown already to me.

And those sales are STC ... i.e. not been scrutinised by banks or surveyors! 

[Pmax2020]

On 6/21/2020 at 10:22 AM, Si1 said:

How do you know the sales won't fall through?

 

Because these are the sold prices available for April. 

[Si1]

3 minutes ago, Pmax2020 said:

Because these are the sold prices available for April. 

But isn't the process super slow these days?

[Pmax2020]

12 minutes ago, Si1 said:

But isn't the process super slow these days?

Nope, in Scotland the sold prices in Rightmove appear around 7/8 weeks after the end of each month. So all of January’s prices appear mid March etc
 

Registers of Scotland website is quicker but you just see an interactive map so you have to go hunting for properties you recall selling. 

[Khalia]

I’m seeing 10% drops in Liverpool in the last 2-3 weeks. Mostly for houses/flats in the 100k to 150k region. Hope it continues. It’s probably to capture buyers with low deposits, now that LTV have changed. 

[hurlerontheditch]

 

Quote

 

Economic forecasters believe it will be at least 18 months before Scotland makes up the output lost due to the pandemic.

The Fraser of Allander Institute said the country was now in its deepest recession in living memory.

A report from the think tank says in the most optimistic scenario it will be the end of 2021 before the economy recovers.

In the worst case scenario it could be 2024 before a "new normal" is reached.

 

2024....

[lewat]

38 minutes ago, Khalia said:

I’m seeing 10% drops in Liverpool in the last 2-3 weeks. Mostly for houses/flats in the 100k to 150k region. Hope it continues. It’s probably to capture buyers with low deposits, now that LTV have changed. 

Watching and seeing the same, although it is in the early stages.

Lots of auction properties coming up, lots of reductions, and a lot of obvious BTL kite flying "investment opportunities" advertised for break even prices. Landlords in areas like Liverpool are increasingly worried.

[Peter Hun]

Quote

Prices to fall 5% and not recover until 2022: Reuters poll

By Leah Milner 23^rd June 2020 12:15 pm

House prices are set to fall by 5 per cent this year and are unlikely to recover their losses until 2022, a Reuters poll of property market analysts has forecast.

In a worst case scenario, prices could drop by 11 per cent on the back of high unemployment, according to the survey of 21 strategists in the sector. 

In an earlier poll conducted in February before the pandemic hit the UK, experts forecast prices would rise by 2 per cent this year and 2.8 per cent in 2021.

https://www.mortgagestrategy.co.uk/news/prices-to-fall-5-and-not-recover-until-2022-reuters-poll/

[simon2]

TBH if we do reach a crash, it'll be a gradual thing. 

A house isn't going to go from £450k to £350k overnight, but rather by several reductions. New listings come on and try to get the old ceiling price, but sold data and mortgage affordability will pull that down eventually.

I've seen some rather overpriced stuff go SSTC as well - perhaps due to lack of supply. Surveyors down-valuing things would actually be good for them - the rationale being those buyers may look for somewhere else, which then requires another valuation, but I fear it'll be business as usual. From what I have seen with valuations they tend to be a backward looking metric and done with much optimism.

I mean when prices were increasing, prices for properties were breaking past the established highs of similar properties on the same road. But because this was happening everywhere it was easy to cherry pick some comparable evidence to support this increased price.

[Peter Hun]

Quote

Half (50%) of prospective buyers have been denied a mortgage despite having an agreement in principle due to COVID-19, according to a survey of 1,305 current homebuyers and owners by Butterfield Mortgages Limited (BML). 

The research also found that 31% of prospective buyers have lost their deposit due to delays in getting a mortgage, 52% have been stuck in a property chain due to challenges completing a transaction during lockdown.

Almost two-fifths (39%) have pulled out of purchasing a property despite putting in an offer, while 13% of homeowners have decided against selling their property despite having received offers.

https://www.mortgageintroducer.com/bml-half-agreements-principle-denied-mortgage/

[Si1]

1 hour ago, Pmax2020 said:

Nope, in Scotland the sold prices in Rightmove appear around 7/8 weeks after the end of each month. So all of January’s prices appear mid March etc
 

Registers of Scotland website is quicker but you just see an interactive map so you have to go hunting for properties you recall selling. 

So you're describing govt land registry data as catalogued on the Rightmove sold prices section, not just sstc on the 'for sale' section?

And no I meant the delay between going sstc and the transaction actually going through.

So it looks like you're describing transactions that were sealed in March before lenders withdrew all their good deals, lockdown, stock market crash etc etc . Err....

 

Edited June 24, 2020 by Si1

[hurlerontheditch]

11 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

https://www.mortgageintroducer.com/bml-half-agreements-principle-denied-mortgage/

wow

 

that's a pretty damming state of affairs

 

[Timm]

Hardly any second hand properties seem to be selling in north rural oxfordshire. Apparently its a different story in the city and the county towns, but I don't follow those markets anymore.

[Peter Hun]

1 hour ago, hurlerontheditch said:

wow

 

that's a pretty damming state of affairs

 

Half of AIP's being refused. Probably due to property being over priced or risks to applicants future income?