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Why it's better to panic early - coronavirus - why it isn't "just like flu"!


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So annoyed by the level of brainpower in evidence at the mo in the UK on coronavirus... we really are a tad doomed. 

The number of people saying "we only have a few cases" - well no, the testing lags the reality, probably by thousands of cases. 

People really can't analyze risk can they. It is beyond my comprehension that people can be so thick. Thank God for these two - gives me a bit of hope after days of "it's just like flu" ******wits. 
 

 

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4 minutes ago, prozac said:

Nah, Nassim just says the opposite of everybody else so when he is right he looks intelligent, i bet he is "Billy no mates" because he goes against the grain.

I don't think so - he's a very good analyst - just been reading his work for the first time - intensely logical. 

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29 minutes ago, gruffydd said:

I don't think so - he's a very good analyst - just been reading his work for the first time - intensely logical. 

This isn't logical:

"It was a few years after the beginning of the Lebanese war, as I was attending the Wharton School, at the age of twenty-two, that I was hit with the idea of efficient markets – an idea that holds that there is no way to derive profits from traded securities since these instruments have automatically incorporated all the available information. Public information can therefore be useless, particularly to a businessman, since prices can already “include” all such information, and news shared with millions gives you no real advantage. Odds are that one or more of the hundreds of millions of other readers of such information will already have bought the security, thus pushing up the price. I then completely gave up reading newspapers and watching television, which freed up a considerable amount of time (say one hour or more per day, enough time to read more than a hundred additional books per year, which, after a couple of decades, starts mounting)."

Nassim Nicholas Taleb
The Black Swan

 

The information in newspapers isn't only valuable if other people don't have it! Efficient markets don't rely on information being shared with millions. The information in books will also have been incorporated, so by his reasoning it would be a waste of time to read books.

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7 minutes ago, Kosmin said:

This isn't logical:

"It was a few years after the beginning of the Lebanese war, as I was attending the Wharton School, at the age of twenty-two, that I was hit with the idea of efficient markets – an idea that holds that there is no way to derive profits from traded securities since these instruments have automatically incorporated all the available information. Public information can therefore be useless, particularly to a businessman, since prices can already “include” all such information, and news shared with millions gives you no real advantage. Odds are that one or more of the hundreds of millions of other readers of such information will already have bought the security, thus pushing up the price. I then completely gave up reading newspapers and watching television, which freed up a considerable amount of time (say one hour or more per day, enough time to read more than a hundred additional books per year, which, after a couple of decades, starts mounting)."

Nassim Nicholas Taleb
The Black Swan

 

The information in newspapers isn't only valuable if other people don't have it! Efficient markets don't rely on information being shared with millions. The information in books will also have been incorporated, so by his reasoning it would be a waste of time to read books.

The information in books will also have been incorporated? Well, it depends - it's less likely if they are far from popular. He didn't say the info in newspapers wasn't of some use - he said it gives you no real advantage because the information is out there (it has a higher profile than info in lesser read books, for example!)

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40 minutes ago, prozac said:

He is a complainer, says things are wrong with the system, he is right, BUT he has no solutions.

He is offering solutions now - trying to explain to people where they are going wrong, so they get their brains back on course. That's what risk people tend to do surely! 

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3 minutes ago, gruffydd said:

He is offering solutions now - trying to explain to people where they are going wrong, so they get their brains back on course. That's what risk people tend to do surely! 

I have read a lot of his works and think he is overrated. he seems like someone who wants to be noticed but has nothing to give.

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1 hour ago, gruffydd said:

So annoyed by the level of brainpower in evidence at the mo in the UK on coronavirus... we really are a tad doomed. 

The number of people saying "we only have a few cases" - well no, the testing lags the reality, probably by thousands of cases. 

People really can't analyze risk can they. It is beyond my comprehension that people can be so thick. Thank God for these two - gives me a bit of hope after days of "it's just like flu" ******wits. 
 

 

i listened to that in the back ground and the only partially exciting thing was paramedics refusing to treat for fear of getting ill. 

not sure we would get that response over here,  they certainly don`t do the job for the money. 

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1 hour ago, prozac said:

I have read a lot of his works and think he is overrated. he seems like someone who wants to be noticed but has nothing to give.

I'd say the opposite - a lone voice of sanity among a lot of noise. 

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1 hour ago, longgone said:

i listened to that in the back ground and the only partially exciting thing was paramedics refusing to treat for fear of getting ill. 

not sure we would get that response over here,  they certainly don`t do the job for the money. 

Most of the stuff he highlights is pretty straightforward, yet missed time and again by commentators - particularly the large proportion who are seriously and critically ill - and the impact on healthcare - 10-15% reliant on ICU!

 

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If you want to seriously improve your chances of surviving think why do these viruses fall away in the summer months. Answer: sunshine. What does sunshine do? It makes your skin build vitamin D.

This video gives you chapter and verse from a doctor about the effect of Vitamin D.

It is evidence from a massive study and endorsed by the BMJ. Buy Vit D not bog-rolls.

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8 minutes ago, gruffydd said:

The information in books will also have been incorporated? Well, it depends - it's less likely if they are far from popular. He didn't say the info in newspapers wasn't of some use - he said it gives you no real advantage because the information is out there (it has a higher profile than info in lesser read books, for example!)

It's his explanation of why he doesn't read newspapers. It's silly. It's faulty logic, because it is based on a lot of false assumptions and errors.

Efficient markets is a hypothesis! We don't know the extent to which it's true in pricing equities. So even if he were trying to use newspapers to aid his trading, it might be beneficial! But the reason efficient markets mean you don't have to do research is different to information in general. If markets are efficient you can just buy an index tracker and ignore the reasons why individual companies go up and down. If you just ignore "the news" and say to yourself "well various newspapers, pundits, television stations etc. have different biases, so if I don't read/watch/listen to any of them then they will cancel out and I'll be well-informed. He's making a stupid analogy.

Efficient markets don't rely on millions of people knowing the information before you! If just a few people receive an important piece of information, they can move the market by making large trades. That changes the price everywhere. We don't have this problem with news for other purposes. You might read an article along with a million other people. Some of those people "get an advantage" of superior knowledge which they then impart to someone else they know. This won't necessarily prevent you from gaining the same advantage (of imparting knowledge)! You can also benefit from being informed, so that you can judge other claims more critically (i.e. whether someone else is telling the truth, or making a good argument). Market prices aren't typically going to "lie" to you. Someone isn't going to get inside information that a company is about to report unexpectedly poor results and then decide to buy lots of shares, as he would make a big loss. He has an incentive to trade in such a way to make the price incorporate the information (voila - efficient markets!), but there is no guarantee with news generally: a person doesn't "make a loss" if they repeat a lie (especially if others don't realise its a lie), knowingly or unknowingly.

If efficient markets applied to news, as he suggests, it absolutely would imply books were of no more use. If he is hoping to make original insights by reading books it is likely he can benefit from the news as well.

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13 minutes ago, gruffydd said:

Most of the stuff he highlights is pretty straightforward, yet missed time and again by commentators - particularly the large proportion who are seriously and critically ill - and the impact on healthcare - 10-15% reliant on ICU!

The proportion going to ICU is important. I wonder how the mortality rate would change if those 10-15% weren't able to go to ICU. Would the most die? (Meaning the mortality rate jumps from 1-4% to 11-19%?)

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I’ve been reading Taleb’s books again recently. I think Fooled by Randomness is the best and all the others repeat the same message in a different way.
 

I don’t like Taleb’s name dropping and general arrogance but I think there’s a lot of value in his writing. It’s also introduced me to stoicism and evolutionary biology (the source is usually better than the populariser).

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14 hours ago, gruffydd said:

Most of the stuff he highlights is pretty straightforward, yet missed time and again by commentators - particularly the large proportion who are seriously and critically ill - and the impact on healthcare - 10-15% reliant on ICU!

 

i was aware of that already. although its good to have another opinion to view. 

 

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17 hours ago, Travisher said:

If you want to seriously improve your chances of surviving think why do these viruses fall away in the summer months. Answer: sunshine. What does sunshine do? It makes your skin build vitamin D.

This video gives you chapter and verse from a doctor about the effect of Vitamin D.

It is evidence from a massive study and endorsed by the BMJ. Buy Vit D not bog-rolls.

Uv rays kill virsuses in the environment. 

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  • 416 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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