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Mods, can you keep this thread for a while, it is fusing the Dow thread with the Corona Virus thread, but is relevant in economic terms. 

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As a lot of HPCers are prudent savers/investors, I wanted to gauge views on when people felt the stockmarket might bottom out? 

Right now based on virus modelling COVID19 may peak around July in the UK, and perhaps slightly later in the US. 

To me this implies the negative news on this front may continue until the summer, after which having an end in sight may provide a relief rally. 

I also note that the Dow is overvalued, and the hitting 29,000 was ridiculous, purely a result of the Trump Pump. But it is still overvalued at current levels. 

Anyway, the market is now back to around or below Oct 2018 levels on the Dow, while the FTSE looks dirt cheap (back to 1997 in Dollar terms), but could still fall further. 

So my question, when and to what level do HPCers reckon the FTSE and Dow will fall and when? 

For the record, my guesses are:

Dow at 18,800 by 1st August 2020.

FTSE 4900 by June 25th, driven lower in part by falls in the Dollar relative to GBP. 

 

 

 

Edited by Mikhail Liebenstein
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You are brave if you invest in these markets. Go long at the start of a pandemic when supply chains are breaking down? Go short when central banks are panic printing and dropping interest rates? Good look.

Some companies will not be able to produce anything as components from China are not available. Transport companies will have earnings drop of a cliff. Demand for oil and comods are going to be through the floor. Complicated financial products are worthless as debts will be defaulted on. Pharma does it's manufacturing in China or using raw materials from China. All will still have overheads. How do you calculate P/E when earnings are zero? Oh and banks will collapse as credit unwinds.

The economy is toast.

In my opinion central bankers are nutters. They use any excuse to print. Expect mass bailouts on a crazy scale. With supermarkets empty people will be forced to bid on stuff like toilet paper in online auctions. Watch as prices are bid up to crazy levels. It may be worth auctioning off a can of beans to pay all your debts and your mortgage at some point.

 

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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, Biggus said:

You are brave if you invest in these markets. Go long at the start of a pandemic when supply chains are breaking down? Go short when central banks are panic printing and dropping interest rates? Good look.

Some companies will not be able to produce anything as components from China are not available. Transport companies will have earnings drop of a cliff. Demand for oil and comods are going to be through the floor. Complicated financial products are worthless as debts will be defaulted on. Pharma does it's manufacturing in China or using raw materials from China. All will still have overheads. How do you calculate P/E when earnings are zero? Oh and banks will collapse as credit unwinds.

The economy is toast.

In my opinion central bankers are nutters. They use any excuse to print. Expect mass bailouts on a crazy scale. With supermarkets empty people will be forced to bid on stuff like toilet paper in online auctions. Watch as prices are bid up to crazy levels. It may be worth auctioning off a can of beans to pay all your debts and your mortgage at some point.

Mass bailouts ultimately say Hyper-inflation, so bonds and cash will eventually be toast, though could do well right now compared to equities. 

I am all cash right now, having sold stocks (pension) in late 2018 at which point I bought corporate bonds, before moving to cash.  The rationale for cash is that Sterling is likely undervalued and so I am pricing in a move back to at least 1.60.

To me I will go long FTSE when I feel the stockmarket has bottomed, and may shift the balance to global equities (which is where I was 2018) if I think there are no gains in Sterling left. 

Remember, Sterling rising from 1.28 to say 1.65, on US equities is an ~23% loss in Sterling terms. 

Edited by Mikhail Liebenstein
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This was a great HPC thread started and informed by durhamborn:

 He anticipated deflation followed by money printing and made some good calls (e.g. IBTL)

My current tentative guesspectation is a FTSE-100 low of around 5000 in July/August 2020 and I am almost 100% cash now.

I feel however that there is a small but non-trivial chance of a major global depression and disruption with unpredictable consequences.

(usual disclaimer - this is purely anecdotal and not advice)

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18 minutes ago, The Spaniard said:

This was a great HPC thread started and informed by durhamborn:

 

My current tentative guesspectation is a FTSE-100 low of around 5000 in July/August 2020 and I am almost 100% cash now.

 

I'd buy at 5,000. Pretty close to my 4,800 bottom. 

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I thought HPC blame BTL being opportunistic. What about taking advantage of corona and people's suffering by INVESTING in shares? So this is not SPECULATION and not UNEARNED GAINS ? The vaccine makers can charge as much as they want and HPC wants to profit from scare and death of others. Such lovely angels blaming BTL as parasites. Wow.

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7 minutes ago, Simhadri said:

I thought HPC blame BTL being opportunistic. What about taking advantage of corona and people's suffering by INVESTING in shares? So this is not SPECULATION and not UNEARNED GAINS ? The vaccine makers can charge as much as they want and HPC wants to profit from scare and death of others. Such lovely angels blaming BTL as parasites. Wow.

The number of people who die from Coronavirus won’t change based upon whether I buy shares or not. If I put money into the FTSE 100 it doesn’t somehow stop Coronavirus patients recovering.

Unlike BTL where if I bought a BTL house it directly stops someone buying it to live in themselves.

Comparing buying shares after a market crash due to Coronavirus to BTL is a false comparison.

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

The number of people who die from Coronavirus won’t change based upon whether I buy shares or not. If I put money into the FTSE 100 it doesn’t somehow stop Coronavirus patients recovering.

Unlike BTL where if I bought a BTL house it directly stops someone buying it to live in themselves.

Comparing buying shares after a market crash due to Coronavirus to BTL is a false comparison.

Couldn't have put it better myself. 

What should we do? Buy shares before the crash? Or hold shares we know are wildly overvalued? 

Should stockholders receive a bailout? 

Where have I seen that type of instinct before?  Oh BTL! 

Edited by Mikhail Liebenstein
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16 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

The number of people who die from Coronavirus won’t change based upon whether I buy shares or not. If I put money into the FTSE 100 it doesn’t somehow stop Coronavirus patients recovering.

Unlike BTL where if I bought a BTL house it directly stops someone buying it to live in themselves.

Comparing buying shares after a market crash due to Coronavirus to BTL is a false comparison.

You buying shares in vaccine manufacturers helps them unilaterally control market by using their finance muscle. The way they exploit fear is being supported by you INVESTING in FEAR. You are worse than those buying thousands of hand sanitizers at 58p each and then selling them bach at £5 each. If BTL don't buy, corporate landlords will buy. So it doesn't change much. But people like you investing in virus, panic, are no saints than those investing in bio chemical weapons. You are giving dumb excuses of investing in FTSE, BUT you are actually investing in FEAR, PANIC, SUFFERING, DEATH of fellow humans. People like you are WORSE than PARASITES. 

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1 minute ago, Simhadri said:

You mean SPECULATING, INVESTING in DISEASE, PANIC to make UNEARNED GAINS ? HAHAHA  ?

I sold my shares before Covid19, I am now waiting for things to level out at a level that represents good value. 

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1 minute ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

Last time I checked I didn't have shares in Covid19. 

You're investing in panic from disease and death. You are pretending to be angel but doing the job of a vulture trying to make gains from SUFFERING. Be it toilet paper, sanitizer or vaccine or anything that YOU make it SCARCE for OTHERS who may DIE. DON'T pretend to be innocent. Your FTSE INVESTMENTS IN people's suffering is no less than BLOOD MONEY.

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28 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

The number of people who die from Coronavirus won’t change based upon whether I buy shares or not

It may increase if you make hand sanitizers, medicines SCARCE by your INVESTMENTS. What a bunch of hypocrites pretending to be INVESTORS ? Wow superb. Such a moral bunch.

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1 minute ago, Simhadri said:

You're investing in panic from disease and death. You are pretending to be angel but doing the job of a vulture trying to make gains from SUFFERING. Be it toilet paper, sanitizer or vaccine or anything that YOU make it SCARCE for OTHERS who may DIE. DON'T pretend to be innocent. Your FTSE INVESTMENTS IN people's suffering is no less than BLOOD MONEY.

I presently have an absence of Investments. 

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2 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

I sold my shares before Covid19, I am now waiting for things to level out at a level that represents good value. 

Wow just like to get GOOD VALUE even at time of SUFFERING OF FELLOW HUMANS ? ??

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2 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

I presently have an absence of Investments. 

Wow then why are even entertaining idea of such INVESTMENTS IN THIS THREAD ? Such a kind hearted human discussing about GAINS from any possible INVESTMENTS when people are DYING. Wow i salute you.?

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Just now, Simhadri said:

It may increase if you make hand sanitizers, medicines SCARCE by your INVESTMENTS. What a bunch of hypocrites pretending to be INVESTORS ? Wow superb. Such a moral bunch.

I don't quite get this over the top reaction. I not exactly Donald Trump desperately pumping the market with fake FED money. I merely want to buy equities at a reasonable price, like many on this site want homes at a reasonable price. Incidentally I bought my current house with a £150k reduction on the asking price largely thanks to this site calling the credit crunch. 

I am not sure if your attitude is purely one of moral outrage or you are holding FTSE put options at 7400.

 

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Just now, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

I don't quite get this over the top reaction. I not exactly Donald Trump desperately pumping the market with fake FED money. I merely want to buy equities at a reasonable price, like many on this site want homes at a reasonable price. Incidentally I bought my current house with a £150k reduction on the asking price largely thanks to this site calling the credit crunch. 

I am not sure if your attitude is purely one of moral outrage or you are holding FTSE put options at 7400.

 

Wow you want to compare house price with INVESTING in DEATH, DISEASE AND SUFFERING ? And you are the one who started over the top thread to discuss how to time it to profit from panic, suffering. With much less money than Trump, you are planning your investments in suffering of fellow humans with superb timing. Trump can't match your INNOCENCE. YOU KNOW its easy to blame BTL for corona than looking at yourself in mirror and judging yourself from your heart.   What an angel. Truly god send.?

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1 minute ago, Simhadri said:

Wow you want to compare house price with INVESTING in DEATH, DISEASE AND SUFFERING ? And you are the one who started over the top thread to discuss how to time it to profit from panic, suffering. With much less money than Trump, you are planning your investments in suffering of fellow humans with superb timing. Trump can't match your INNOCENCE. YOU KNOW its easy to blame BTL for corona than looking at yourself in mirror and judging yourself from your heart.   What an angel. Truly god send.?

This is great fun!

Pro-troll me thinks! 

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1 minute ago, Simhadri said:

Wow you want to compare house price with INVESTING in DEATH, DISEASE AND SUFFERING ? And you are the one who started over the top thread to discuss how to time it to profit from panic, suffering. With much less money than Trump, you are planning your investments in suffering of fellow humans with superb timing. Trump can't match your INNOCENCE. YOU KNOW its easy to blame BTL for corona than looking at yourself in mirror and judging yourself from your heart.   What an angel. Truly god send.?

You're doing a "moral equivalence" with this stuff. If he and others regard BTL as un-ethical then that's something for his/other conscience. Sizing up the general (stock) market is, I think, quite a bit different.

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1 minute ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

This is great fun!

Pro-troll me thinks! 

Haha yeah its fun to invest using virus. All the best for your UNEARNED GAINS OF BLOOD MONEY from virus. HOC has such kind hearted innocent souls who invest and time using a VIRUS. WHAT A FUN. Enjoy.?

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17 minutes ago, Simhadri said:

You're investing in panic from disease and death. You are pretending to be angel but doing the job of a vulture trying to make gains from SUFFERING. Be it toilet paper, sanitizer or vaccine or anything that YOU make it SCARCE for OTHERS who may DIE. DON'T pretend to be innocent. Your FTSE INVESTMENTS IN people's suffering is no less than BLOOD MONEY.

It looks like you're keen to paint it like that. Aren't you conflating "due to the corona virus" with "due to investors".

Before entering this thread, I thought this thread was going to be Merck's share price, which you're argument would have case for.

stock-merck-ltd-bse-forecast.png?v=15602

Interesting inverse correlation between Airline shares and drug company shares from past swine flu bulls*it...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/pharmaceuticalsandchemicals/5228593/GlaxoSmithKline-leads-pharmaceutical-shares-higher-on-swine-flu-outbreak.html

Edited by Arpeggio
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  • 415 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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