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The black swan looks like its circling. 

We are facing a serious pandemic. 

Asking prices that i look at are beyond insane!!! 

Nothing seems to be selling tho 

Can the bubble continue? 

 

Saw a simplistic argument that mortgage rates are going to fall but who's willing or able to prop up the bottom of the pyramid? 

Who can afford to move or trade up? A decade of rent on stamp duty... No thanks. 

If a million over 60s kick the bucket whos going to buy their over priced houses? 

London, the epicentre of stupidity, could see a massive depression. 

Will the bankers print? 

Can they without causing serious issues? 

Does anyone think we'll finally see the badly needed correction? 

I said id come back when the collapse was starting... Might have timed it rather well. ?

 

Its going to be an interesting year... Again. 

 

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere
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supply side recession coming your way

Paul Krugman said he's very very worried as the CBs have no ammo to save the liberal elite's world

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72% of deaths are males. italy death figures are 4.5% not the 1% thats been banded about. so a male has a 6% chance. see how the odds of death are stacking up.  as most deaths will be over 50 now we are starting to get over 10% of over 50s males will did from this virus. 

 

dont be so quick to fill yourself with glee at the prospects of your hate target dying. 

 

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Continuing the theme, quite a timely post about returning to the site after a length of time. Found this site in 2003 as a twenty something, and return now out of interest on a quiet Saturday morning as a 40 something about to be 1st time home owner. I could have brought back then, but like many on this site, believed that there had to be a correction coming. I had other things going on in my young life such as travelling and returning to study at university. I diverted a lot of my savings and a small inheritance to those two pursuits in particular, and have no regrets, but it is certainly a bit painful looking at how house prices have exploded over the intervening 17 years. Had I brought that 2 bed flat near Brixton station that I looked at, I would no doubt be (nearly) mortgage free and sitting in a 5-600k asset as I currently type and eat my toast. Hindsight is always 20 / 20 hey, and I don't lose any sleep.

It cannot be argued that this site has been spectacularly wrong over the last two decades. A crash is definitely coming, the masses will be crying into their cornflakes by tomorrow morning, corona virus will be the trigger that pops the bubble, Brexit, quantitive easing, HTB etc etc. I think what I have learned is that rationality does not form any part of the housing market. For all of the insight and logic that exists here and elsewhere, people are acting due to either necessity or emotion. This is what makes calling any sort of crash impossible, and it is a fools game that I am no longer playing. 

Having met someone a number of years ago, we set to saving up what we could, and arrived at Xmas just gone with 75k in our bank account. We are currently working toward exchange on a house in London that has gained nearly 200k in the last 10 years since it was last sold, but my ability to sit and wait has disappeared along with the hair on my head. We have a 2 year fix at 1.84%, and then depending on the economic outlook, I will look to fix for a further 5 - 10 years whilst we start a family - biology allowing. 

There will need to be a monumental crash alongside rapidly increasing interest rates for the market to have any effect on us, and even then, with 4 bedrooms, we aren't going to need to move due to space. Although I'd rather not lose our hard saved deposit, in two years time when we need to re-mortgage, we will have built around 100k of equity, and I just cannot see that being wiped out in that timescale, if ever. In terms of the OP saying that nothing seems to be selling, this couldn't be further from the truth in my area of London. Tens of places that I favourited on right move over the past couple of months have all sold or sold STC. The house we are buying was on the market for 2 weeks and we brought - technically we are first time buyers, so we are propping this up with a lot of hard work saving prior.

I'm not sure what the point of this post is. A bit nostalgia digging up an old username from a time gone by. A bit of a counter argument in that people will always need somewhere to live, and although I agree it is far from fair at the moment, I am 100% relieved to be out of rented accommodation hopefully next month, and into somewhere that I can build a family in. I am 100% convinced that if I check back in another 17 years, I will not regret the decision to buy, even if it is at the top of the market. 

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6 minutes ago, Twenty Something said:

I'm not sure what the point of this post is. A bit nostalgia digging up an old username from a time gone by. A bit of a counter argument in that people will always need somewhere to live, and although I agree it is far from fair at the moment, I am 100% relieved to be out of rented accommodation hopefully next month, and into somewhere that I can build a family in. I am 100% convinced that if I check back in another 17 years, I will not regret the decision to buy, even if it is at the top of the market. 

I enjoyed reading your perspective, and I say this with the utmost respect: you may have lost your nerve and top-ticked this market.

I went a slightly different route. I now have a wife, child and dog in... *gasp*... rented accommodation! I guess you could say, I got on with my life.

Sure, conditions are a little bit like the Soviet Union, but we're making do and life is good. Now the long-prophesied economic collapse has been brought forward by about 9 months, I'm sure glad I'm liquid and debt-free.

Good luck to all the bears who have turned bull on this site, in the last 12 months. It's been like reading Mumsnet at times.

 

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2 minutes ago, 50sQuiff said:

I enjoyed reading your perspective, and I say this with the utmost respect: you may have lost your nerve and top-ticked this market.

I went a slightly different route. I now have a wife, child and dog in... *gasp*... rented accommodation! I guess you could say, I got on with my life.

Sure, conditions are a little bit like the Soviet Union, but we're making do and life is good. Now the long-prophesied economic collapse has been brought forward by about 9 months, I'm sure glad I'm liquid and debt-free.

Good luck to all the bears who have turned bull on this site, in the last 12 months. It's been like reading Mumsnet at times.

 

I have kids in rented to. Should I watch over my shoulder for the feds?

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15 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Nothing seems to be selling tho

That is not what I am seeing locally - houses that were on the market for ages suddenly sold once Brexit happened. In my village the longest listing as of now first appeared in November 2019 and that is now SSTC - there are only two other listing and one of them only came on to the market last week.

Is there any evidence that houses are not selling or is that just your wishful thinking?

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16 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

The black swan looks like its circling. 

We are facing a serious pandemic. 

Asking prices that i look at are beyond insane!!! 

Nothing seems to be selling tho 

Can the bubble continue? 

 

Saw a simplistic argument that mortgage rates are going to fall but who's willing or able to prop up the bottom of the pyramid? 

Who can afford to move or trade up? A decade of rent on stamp duty... No thanks. 

If a million over 60s kick the bucket whos going to buy their over priced houses? 

London, the epicentre of stupidity, could see a massive depression. 

Will the bankers print? 

Can they without causing serious issues? 

Does anyone think we'll finally see the badly needed correction? 

I said id come back when the collapse was starting... Might have timed it rather well. ?

 

Its going to be an interesting year... Again. 

 

If it is as bad as "worse case" it will be devastating.

Just printing money wont help with the high business rates based on a busy business suddenly having no customers.  My business for example pays over 1000£ a week rates ok when normal but a lot of money if everyone is told to stay away.  

Its ok promising employees they will get x and y but the money comes from employers if they suddenly have no customers for example a tea room where the oap customers are told to stay home for months.... its game over.

Maybe it wont be that bad and things will just be crap for a quarter or two but would you go out and pay xxk more than last year and have a honking great mortgage right now....no way jose maybe if it was a bargain and I saved xx k but not the former.

The cutting of rates does jack shit for most small businesses it is what it is a move to prevent asset holders having to sell for the current market value or a reduced "virus" market rate.

Hardy anything coming on the market atm near me and nobody from my recent viewings wishes to entertain late 2019 prices at this time so subsidised stasis it will be at least for a few months.

Edited by Fromage Frais
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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, 50sQuiff said:

I enjoyed reading your perspective, and I say this with the utmost respect: you may have lost your nerve and top-ticked this market.

I went a slightly different route. I now have a wife, child and dog in... *gasp*... rented accommodation! I guess you could say, I got on with my life.

Sure, conditions are a little bit like the Soviet Union, but we're making do and life is good. Now the long-prophesiedd economic collapse has been brought forward by about 9 months, I'm sure glad I'm liquid and debt-free.

Good luck to all the bears who have turned bull on this site, in the last 12 months. It's been like reading Mumsnet at times.

 

???? Great post. 

 

Change your name to troll slapper. 

 

This site was right, time and time again. House prices collapsed over the country and the market died for 4 years.  Northern ireland was down 60%+ in real terms, all predicted, try teling them there wasnt a collapse. 

Plenty said what carney, help to buy etc would do. They wete right. 

Plenty have bought into the bubble so they dont miss out but as we are seeing the slightest issue and the wheels are coming off. Post 2007 there was nothing worth buying, its worse now. The 2nd collapse, like the railway mania, was always inevitable. 

There is plenty pain to come. Btlers being taxed out of existence. Changing voting demographics. Brexit. Rising rates. Massive inflation. A milluon over 70s coronavirus victims perhaps. 

Ultimately it looks like the HPC have been spot on time and time again. 

 

We all know the end of all this will be incredibly difficult and painfull. The trouble with pyramid scams is, its impossible for only but a few people to profit in the end. 

 

The boris bounce has been replaced by the coronavirus collapse

 

 

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere
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2 hours ago, Twenty Something said:

Continuing the theme, quite a timely post about returning to the site after a length of time. Found this site in 2003 as a twenty something, and return now out of interest on a quiet Saturday morning as a 40 something about to be 1st time home owner. I could have brought back then, but like many on this site, believed that there had to be a correction coming. I had other things going on in my young life such as travelling and returning to study at university. I diverted a lot of my savings and a small inheritance to those two pursuits in particular, and have no regrets, but it is certainly a bit painful looking at how house prices have exploded over the intervening 17 years. Had I brought that 2 bed flat near Brixton station that I looked at, I would no doubt be (nearly) mortgage free and sitting in a 5-600k asset as I currently type and eat my toast. Hindsight is always 20 / 20 hey, and I don't lose any sleep.

It cannot be argued that this site has been spectacularly wrong over the last two decades. A crash is definitely coming, the masses will be crying into their cornflakes by tomorrow morning, corona virus will be the trigger that pops the bubble, Brexit, quantitive easing, HTB etc etc. I think what I have learned is that rationality does not form any part of the housing market. For all of the insight and logic that exists here and elsewhere, people are acting due to either necessity or emotion. This is what makes calling any sort of crash impossible, and it is a fools game that I am no longer playing. 

Having met someone a number of years ago, we set to saving up what we could, and arrived at Xmas just gone with 75k in our bank account. We are currently working toward exchange on a house in London that has gained nearly 200k in the last 10 years since it was last sold, but my ability to sit and wait has disappeared along with the hair on my head. We have a 2 year fix at 1.84%, and then depending on the economic outlook, I will look to fix for a further 5 - 10 years whilst we start a family - biology allowing. 

There will need to be a monumental crash alongside rapidly increasing interest rates for the market to have any effect on us, and even then, with 4 bedrooms, we aren't going to need to move due to space. Although I'd rather not lose our hard saved deposit, in two years time when we need to re-mortgage, we will have built around 100k of equity, and I just cannot see that being wiped out in that timescale, if ever. In terms of the OP saying that nothing seems to be selling, this couldn't be further from the truth in my area of London. Tens of places that I favourited on right move over the past couple of months have all sold or sold STC. The house we are buying was on the market for 2 weeks and we brought - technically we are first time buyers, so we are propping this up with a lot of hard work saving prior.

I'm not sure what the point of this post is. A bit nostalgia digging up an old username from a time gone by. A bit of a counter argument in that people will always need somewhere to live, and although I agree it is far from fair at the moment, I am 100% relieved to be out of rented accommodation hopefully next month, and into somewhere that I can build a family in. I am 100% convinced that if I check back in another 17 years, I will not regret the decision to buy, even if it is at the top of the market. 

Agreed. It's the sad reality.

It often comes down to personal circumstances. Age and time are often the rate limiting step to waiting forever and "timing the market" is impossible.

How many people would want to rent in retirement if they has the choice not to?

Rationality does not seen to form any part of the housing market. Look where we are after "the great recession".

Negative rates, debt forgiveness, capital control, QE etc wouldn't surprise me.

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26 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

 

There is plenty pain to come. Btlers being taxed out of existence. Changing voting demographics. Brexit. Rising rates. Massive inflation. A milluon over 70s coronavirus victims perhaps. 

Ultimately it looks like the HPC have been spot on time and time again. 

 

We all know the end of all this will be incredibly difficult and painfull. The trouble with pyramid scams is, its impossible for only but a few people to profit in the end. 

 

The boris bounce has been replaced by the coronavirus collapse

 

 

This place makes me laugh! ?

I’m with Twenty Something and not TCON. Pyramid scam where only a few will profit? ? Million’s have profited and will continue to do so.

the housing market is controlled by 3 things mostly.

1. Supply and demand.

2. affordability

3. Sentiment, speculation, expectation etc
 

Number 1 is only going to get worse regardless of this coronacr@p.

Number 2 is not about to get any better. Money is cheap, getting cheaper and enough people will always afford it if others can’t.

Number 3 is mostly irrelevant. People need to move or buy and are sick of waiting.

 

A crash can’t happen. There’s too many people on the sidelines desperate for a home that will buy on any falls. Good homes will always sell.

the only thing that can cause a crash is a huge leap in interest rates (not gonna happen) or mass redundancies. If Corona does get much worse the redundancies might happen but then half on here might be unemployed too and not be able to benefit.

 

This site will still be going in 2040 and people will still be waiting for the crash but just be another 20 years older.

 

[/sorry!]

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2 hours ago, 50sQuiff said:

I enjoyed reading your perspective, and I say this with the utmost respect: you may have lost your nerve and top-ticked this market.

I went a slightly different route. I now have a wife, child and dog in... *gasp*... rented accommodation! I guess you could say, I got on with my life.

Sure, conditions are a little bit like the Soviet Union, but we're making do and life is good. Now the long-prophesied economic collapse has been brought forward by about 9 months, I'm sure glad I'm liquid and debt-free.

Good luck to all the bears who have turned bull on this site, in the last 12 months. It's been like reading Mumsnet at times.

 

Similar here, wife and 2 small kids in rental. It's a smallish 2 bed terrace but fine for our lifestyle, we furnished it inexpensively and gradually with second hand furniture, modest space keeps us close together and prevents accumulation of junk. We would like more space when the kids are bigger but that is many years away, no need to get ahead of ourselves and pay for space we don't need. Landlord is lazy so I do minor repairs/redecorating myself, means the rent is cheap for the area. We like the town, walking distance to shops and nice state schools and close to both of our jobs, running two old Honda Jazzes debt-free with steady accumulation of savings and pensions. You can have it all but not at the same time, best to be a bit flexible.

Toward the end of this decade if things are still like now (or worse) that's fine, we will just pack up our savings and head back to the wife's old country in southern Europe where education is good, housing is cheap and the food and weather are better.

Edited by Dorkins
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3 hours ago, Twenty Something said:

Continuing the theme, quite a timely post about returning to the site after a length of time. Found this site in 2003 as a twenty something, and return now out of interest on a quiet Saturday morning as a 40 something about to be 1st time home owner. I could have brought back then, but like many on this site, believed that there had to be a correction coming. I had other things going on in my young life such as travelling and returning to study at university. I diverted a lot of my savings and a small inheritance to those two pursuits in particular, and have no regrets, but it is certainly a bit painful looking at how house prices have exploded over the intervening 17 years. Had I brought that 2 bed flat near Brixton station that I looked at, I would no doubt be (nearly) mortgage free and sitting in a 5-600k asset as I currently type and eat my toast. Hindsight is always 20 / 20 hey, and I don't lose any sleep.

It cannot be argued that this site has been spectacularly wrong over the last two decades. A crash is definitely coming, the masses will be crying into their cornflakes by tomorrow morning, corona virus will be the trigger that pops the bubble, Brexit, quantitive easing, HTB etc etc. I think what I have learned is that rationality does not form any part of the housing market. For all of the insight and logic that exists here and elsewhere, people are acting due to either necessity or emotion. This is what makes calling any sort of crash impossible, and it is a fools game that I am no longer playing. 

Having met someone a number of years ago, we set to saving up what we could, and arrived at Xmas just gone with 75k in our bank account. We are currently working toward exchange on a house in London that has gained nearly 200k in the last 10 years since it was last sold, but my ability to sit and wait has disappeared along with the hair on my head. We have a 2 year fix at 1.84%, and then depending on the economic outlook, I will look to fix for a further 5 - 10 years whilst we start a family - biology allowing. 

There will need to be a monumental crash alongside rapidly increasing interest rates for the market to have any effect on us, and even then, with 4 bedrooms, we aren't going to need to move due to space. Although I'd rather not lose our hard saved deposit, in two years time when we need to re-mortgage, we will have built around 100k of equity, and I just cannot see that being wiped out in that timescale, if ever. In terms of the OP saying that nothing seems to be selling, this couldn't be further from the truth in my area of London. Tens of places that I favourited on right move over the past couple of months have all sold or sold STC. The house we are buying was on the market for 2 weeks and we brought - technically we are first time buyers, so we are propping this up with a lot of hard work saving prior.

I'm not sure what the point of this post is. A bit nostalgia digging up an old username from a time gone by. A bit of a counter argument in that people will always need somewhere to live, and although I agree it is far from fair at the moment, I am 100% relieved to be out of rented accommodation hopefully next month, and into somewhere that I can build a family in. I am 100% convinced that if I check back in another 17 years, I will not regret the decision to buy, even if it is at the top of the market. 

I have gone through that phase and bought. If you want bigger and affordable housing, Scotland is good if you can find a job there in your line of work. I've no regrets of buying 3 properties and I've gone for 10 year fix for one and 5 year fix for other 2. Pretty good and low interest rate deals. Can't wait until 2100 for a magical crash while cursing anybody and everybody who are no longer renting. You made the right choice.

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24 minutes ago, dirtysteve said:

This place makes me laugh! ?

I’m with Twenty Something and not TCON. Pyramid scam where only a few will profit? ? Million’s have profited and will continue to do so.

the housing market is controlled by 3 things mostly.

1. Supply and demand.

2. affordability

3. Sentiment, speculation, expectation etc
 

Number 1 is only going to get worse regardless of this coronacr@p.

Number 2 is not about to get any better. Money is cheap, getting cheaper and enough people will always afford it if others can’t.

Number 3 is mostly irrelevant. People need to move or buy and are sick of waiting.

 

A crash can’t happen. There’s too many people on the sidelines desperate for a home that will buy on any falls. Good homes will always sell.

the only thing that can cause a crash is a huge leap in interest rates (not gonna happen) or mass redundancies. If Corona does get much worse the redundancies might happen but then half on here might be unemployed too and not be able to benefit.

 

This site will still be going in 2040 and people will still be waiting for the crash but just be another 20 years older.

 

[/sorry!]

Exactly. Some guys expect everybody will wait 50 years for a crash and corona wold war. LMAO.

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Some great replies. I do certainly buy with a sense of anger. There is no need for things to have got as they have, but unfortunately that is the situation that I / we find ourselves in. As per above, mother time will wait for no man, and for me this isn't a case of trying to make a tidy profit on a house flip, this is about securing a future for myself and any future family. The reality is that I'm at the point where next year a 25 year mortgage won't be possible without going off piste with non highstreet lenders. 

I've paid my money and made my choice anyway. A catastrophic crash is not in my view coming to London / SE England. A correction of 10 - 20% over the next 10 years, maybe. Stagnation, maybe. 10 - 20% increases maybe. Here is the point, nobody knows. I just want somewhere to live, and I am 100% certain in another 10 years time, even if there is a crash tomorrow, I will not regret buying. I don't say this to gloat as god knows there are plenty of people who just can't buy fullstop through no fault of their own, but that's not on my head. 

Like a clock with a dead battery, at some point this site will be right, but any fall in prices is unlikely to affect me or others who have just brought, unless accompanied by economic circumstances that will spell doom for country at large and not just recent home owners.  

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We never really had a proper recession in 2008; many things were deferred (including home repos) by bailing out creditors at mass scale, allowing the charade to continue for another decade.  

Therefore thinking this is "yet another business cycle" where only a few will lose their jobs and people can simply "sit on their properties" might not sail this time.  

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25 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

Toward the end of this decade if things are still like now (or worse) that's fine, we will just pack up our savings and head back to the wife's old country in southern Europe where education is good, housing is cheap and the food and weather are better.

Smarter. Europe is cheaper.

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Posted (edited)
38 minutes ago, dirtysteve said:

This place makes me laugh! ?

I’m with Twenty Something and not TCON. Pyramid scam where only a few will profit? ? Million’s have profited and will continue to do so.

the housing market is controlled by 3 things mostly.

1. Supply and demand.

2. affordability

3. Sentiment, speculation, expectation etc
 

Number 1 is only going to get worse regardless of this coronacr@p.

Number 2 is not about to get any better. Money is cheap, getting cheaper and enough people will always afford it if others can’t.

Number 3 is mostly irrelevant. People need to move or buy and are sick of waiting.

 

A crash can’t happen. There’s too many people on the sidelines desperate for a home that will buy on any falls. Good homes will always sell.

the only thing that can cause a crash is a huge leap in interest rates (not gonna happen) or mass redundancies. If Corona does get much worse the redundancies might happen but then half on here might be unemployed too and not be able to benefit.

 

This site will still be going in 2040 and people will still be waiting for the crash but just be another 20 years older.

 

[/sorry!]

Comedy gold. 

 

Can you tell us how london prices have fallenn 20% in 3 years? 

Didn't the VI trolls not move to TOOS? 

 

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere
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Posted (edited)

Don't take my word for it tho, even the crooks who fuelled the mega bubble have owned up. 

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/uk-house-prices-rise-interest-rates-mortgages-bank-of-england-a9258196.html%3famp

 

Supply and demand, good one, you should go on stage with that act. 

 

"Soaring house prices over the past four decades have been caused largely by low interest rates, not by a lack of supply of homes, research by the Bank of England has found." 

 

Talk about taking the p##s

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere
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33 minutes ago, blackhole said:

We never really had a proper recession in 2008; many things were deferred (including home repos) by bailing out creditors at mass scale, allowing the charade to continue for another decade.  

Therefore thinking this is "yet another business cycle" where only a few will lose their jobs and people can simply "sit on their properties" might not sail this time.  

I don't get it; what makes you think the government won't just do the same again? 

Even before this corona virus issue, negative rates looked a nailed on certainty, it's barely even worth debating now. I'm fully expecting part of the government's response to be financial support for companies struggling to meet payroll with staff and customers staying at home, which amounts to bail outs for lenders and landlords alike. 

We'll see a short term correction no doubt but it'll be business as usual again before you know it. 

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  • 416 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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