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Coronavirus guesstimate the death rate


Coronavirus the death rate POLL  

49 members have voted

  1. 1. What do you guesstimate to be the death rate



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I say take the last known UK death rate for Flu, Winter 18/19 , scale up the % from that?  0.05%, to say 2.5% , and double it for good measure. Then you may have a rough UK and global figure.

Put it this way, come winter 2020/21, no one will be saying, "why worry, it's just a bit worse than flu" , when they have 1 grandparent out  of 4 from their marriage left alive for their grandkids. 

 

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<1%.

Recession is inevitable. House prices will fall; unemployment will spike. The private sector economy will deleverage but then it has to anyway. Public works will be brought forward. The NHS will cope.

 

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I think there are a lot more infected people than anyone imagines, and the death rate in the West will be more like 0.5% than 5% because most show no symptoms or minimal symptoms.

Also, in rural areas or cities with decent hygiene, the death rate will be much lower because it won't spread as easily before summer weather makes the spread more difficult.

So bad, but not horrendously bad. But bad enough to result in a major change in the economy as people turn against globalism.

Particularly as it will be back next winter, since it will continue to exist in other countries even if it dies out in the Western summer.

Edited by MarkG
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1 minute ago, MarkG said:

So bad, but not horrendously bad. But bad enough to result in a major change in the economy as people turn against globalism.

In your communist dreams! People like liberty too much to be told they can't buy things or move around any more.

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3 minutes ago, Kosmin said:

In your communist dreams! People like liberty too much to be told they can't buy things or move around any more.

Wow. That's the first time I've been called a communist.

Companies are already pulling production away from China, and many of them are bringing it back to the West. And no-one's going to want foreigners coming to their country potentially bringing killer diseases after this.

Unless this whole thing magically blows over in the next few weeks, globalism is dead.

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This question is not very well defined - do you mean in the UK?  Globally?  Do you mean the overall % of population killed, or the % of those who get the virus dying?  And why just those four weird options?!

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South Korea's rate is <1% at the moment (21/3700), with the obvious caveat that the vast majority of the cases haven't recovered yet, either. Still, that is a lower number that most other places and likely due to how widely they are casting the testing net.

 

Edit: my answer would be 1% or perhaps less, but this isn't an option on your poll - which I think is perhaps a little pessimistic, even for this forum.

Edited by mattyboy1973
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31 minutes ago, MarkG said:

I think there are a lot more infected people than anyone imagines, and the death rate in the West will be more like 0.5% than 5% because most show no symptoms or minimal symptoms.

Also, in rural areas or cities with decent hygiene, the death rate will be much lower because it won't spread as easily before summer weather makes the spread more difficult.

So bad, but not horrendously bad. But bad enough to result in a major change in the economy as people turn against globalism.

Particularly as it will be back next winter, since it will continue to exist in other countries even if it dies out in the Western summer.

I am not sure the summer will make any difference given it's spread in Singapore and elsewhere with warm/hot climates. Apparently,  Thailand has had 3000 cases of 'viral pneumonia' in the last two months. As far death rate goes I imagine it largely depends on how well the NHS copes, if it's swamped and given 20% of those who are infected require hospital treatment, and I've read the disease can escalate rapidly in those who are in the 20% or 5% who are critical, you would think it would be at least approaching 5% if the NHS can't cope, otherwise if it can 1%.

Edited by petetong
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9 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

This question is not very well defined - do you mean in the UK?  Globally?  Do you mean the overall % of population killed, or the % of those who get the virus dying?  And why just those four weird options?!

I understand what you are saying, but sometimes you can’t look too deeply, you can vote and explain your reasoning 

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8 minutes ago, mattyboy1973 said:

South Korea's rate is <1% at the moment (21/3700), with the obvious caveat that the vast majority of the cases haven't recovered yet, either. Still, that is a lower number that most other places and likely due to how widely they are casting the testing net.

 

Edit: my answer would be 1% or perhaps less, but this isn't an option on your poll - which I think is perhaps a little pessimistic, even for this forum.

I did not want to give too many options as then it is difficult too aggregate the data to work out a hypothesis 

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34 minutes ago, MarkG said:

Wow. That's the first time I've been called a communist.

https://mises.org/library/middle-road-policy-leads-socialism

When the interventionism fails, progressively worse interventions enacted the economy is entirely controlled by the government

I suppose you could be a different kind of authoritarian, but if you want to suppress trade you're certainly anti-capitalist

34 minutes ago, MarkG said:

Companies are already pulling production away from China, and many of them are bringing it back to the West. And no-one's going to want foreigners coming to their country potentially bringing killer diseases after this.

You think the world will just stop importing goods worth more than $2trillion per year from China as nobody wants "foreigners coming to their country potentially bringing killer diseases!" People want to import Chinese goods (some could be produced elsewhere, given time, but others rely on Chinese resources) and they realise there are also domestic risks.

34 minutes ago, MarkG said:

Unless this whole thing magically blows over in the next few weeks, globalism is dead.

If it's still a problem in November it might be a cause of Trump losing the election, which would be good for globalism.

Edited by Kosmin
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10 minutes ago, prozac said:

I did not want to give too many options as then it is difficult too aggregate the data to work out a hypothesis 

I think closer to 0.1% than 2%. Five people said 5% (that's 390million - yikes!)

What kind of hypothesis are you working on?

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1 minute ago, Kosmin said:

I think closer to 0.1% than 2%. Five people said 5% (that's 390million - yikes!)

What kind of hypothesis are you working on?

It is too early to say, it could fizzle out with nearly no deaths but as we add more data as time progresses we should have a number, a number based on data.

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The are the figures I've seen:

Flu:

Case fatality rate: 0.1 to 0.2%  and R0: 1 

Covid-19

Case fatality rate:  1% to 2% (also seen 0.5% quoted, China's is currently 3.4% according to this https://covid19info.live) and R0: 2 to 3.5  (although up to nearly 7 has been calculated in epidemiological models)

Unless I am missing something it appears to have at least double the infectivity of flu and at least 5 times more lethal, if you use the lowest estimates for covid-19.

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23 minutes ago, petetong said:

The are the figures I've seen:

Flu:

Case fatality rate: 0.1 to 0.2%  and R0: 1 

Covid-19

Case fatality rate:  1% to 2% (also seen 0.5% quoted, China's is currently 3.4% according to this https://covid19info.live) and R0: 2 to 3.5  (although up to nearly 7 has been calculated in epidemiological models)

Unless I am missing something it appears to have at least double the infectivity of flu and at least 5 times more lethal, if you use the lowest estimates for covid-19.

China is an outlier in every respect: Many more infections than reported because the identification was originally suppressed and the disease treated as regular flu. Also, the 40,000 potluck dinner in Wuhan. Also, the number of elderly smokers with secondary infections.

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10 hours ago, MarkG said:

Wow. That's the first time I've been called a communist.

Companies are already pulling production away from China, and many of them are bringing it back to the West. And no-one's going to want foreigners coming to their country potentially bringing killer diseases after this.

Unless this whole thing magically blows over in the next few weeks, globalism is dead.

Never quite see the happy clappy link between less globalism and hundreds of thousands of new jobs - new on or near shore jobs - new facilities will be highly automated or be operated like a plant in China - think an Amazon warehouse 

Watch American Factory on Netflix 

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12 hours ago, MarkG said:

I think there are a lot more infected people than anyone imagines, and the death rate in the West will be more like 0.5% than 5% because most show no symptoms or minimal symptoms.

Also, in rural areas or cities with decent hygiene, the death rate will be much lower because it won't spread as easily before summer weather makes the spread more difficult.

So bad, but not horrendously bad. But bad enough to result in a major change in the economy as people turn against globalism.

Particularly as it will be back next winter, since it will continue to exist in other countries even if it dies out in the Western summer.

Very few people have no symptoms. A mild case has fever, a week long coughing session and a few weeks off work.

the serious cases (20%) need oxygen in hospital.

Potentially we may have millions of kidney damages, sterile, recovering patients. 

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50 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

Very few people have no symptoms. A mild case has fever, a week long coughing session and a few weeks off work.

the serious cases (20%) need oxygen in hospital.

Potentially we may have millions of kidney damages, sterile, recovering patients. 

This is very true, but why would anyone think it was just another bout of flu, a few days rest and back to normal?.....who is to say this virus is already in the community already and has been for sometime?....how long before catching and after recovering are still able to spread it about without realising??

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3 minutes ago, winkie said:

This is very true, but why would anyone think it was just another bout of flu, a few days rest and back to normal?.....who is to say this virus is already in the community already and has been for sometime?....how long before catching and after recovering are still able to spread it about without realising??

a good point, lets hope it is true.

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19 minutes ago, prozac said:

a good point, lets hope it is true.

It's not a good point and the likelyhood of it being true is hugely remote. For the following reasons :

i) The Chinese detected it through people presenting unusual symptoms. If people had been presenting these unusual symptoms in the UK we would have detected it in the same way they did.

ii) If it had been around in the UK for a while, many more people would be testing positive for it. Over 10,000 people in the UK have been tested so far and the number is growing rapidly. The vast majority of people testing at the moment have links to countries where there have been significant outbreaks (Iran, Italy, China).

Edited by Gigantic Purple Slug
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14 hours ago, MarkG said:

Wow. That's the first time I've been called a communist.

Companies are already pulling production away from China, and many of them are bringing it back to the West. And no-one's going to want foreigners coming to their country potentially bringing killer diseases after this.

Unless this whole thing magically blows over in the next few weeks, globalism is dead.

I think higher risk costs of doing business in China will be inferred owing to the clunky authoritarian handling of the crisis by the Chinese. This will have an economic knock on.

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  • 416 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
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      • up 5%



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