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Impact of coronavirus on economy - seeing first major impacts on the ground


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39 minutes ago, Si1 said:

in a way the man profiteering from hand sanitiser was only helping find the correct market clearing price for it, I didn't see the problem.

I agree...and hopefully he takes the financial hit since it all went wrong...unlike the banks.

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15 minutes ago, Roman Roady said:

I agree...and hopefully he takes the financial hit since it all went wrong...unlike the banks.

Indeed. Symmetric risk.

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4 hours ago, Si1 said:

in a way the man profiteering from hand sanitiser was only helping find the correct market clearing price for it, I didn't see the problem. He'd probably persuade people not to individually hoard hand sanitiser they don't actually need by doing what he did.

I suspect inflation will rise. A lot of things are out of stock in the shop.

People are forced to buy the more expensive brands. 

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11 hours ago, hotblack42 said:

And expose Covid-19 to move UV

Lol. I don’t think the sun cares what time the clocks say, once the Earth rotates it’s rising, and as the rotation continues it’s setting. Unless your a flat earther?

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43 minutes ago, markyh said:

Lol. I don’t think the sun cares what time the clocks say, once the Earth rotates it’s rising, and as the rotation continues it’s setting. Unless your a flat earther?

OMG I know that! I meant people will be out in the sunshine more because they be out & about sooner after sunrise..

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Likely solution is 'public bank' (maybe RBS to be used) which basically makes helicopter money drops to businesses in the guise of emergency loans.

Requirement of loan is to keep workers on payroll with some sort of stipend - possibly the goverment introduces a benefit for the employed, directly, in leiu of that.

All to be sorted out in the distant future when the health crisis passes.  ie. The currency absorbs the hit and we end up with hyperinflation at some stage.

Plenty of time before then for the financially wise to exchange any cash they have for suitable assets.

 

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On 14/03/2020 at 12:33, regprentice said:

Ive had two meetings this week already that were recaps of other meetings because the Skype for business call quality on the earlier calls was so poor the meetings had to be rerun. For all attendees that's 28 man hours work out the window. The network can't cope. Nothing is going to get done for the next 8 - 12 weeks. 

Persuade them to try Zoom.us instead. It's cheap and we've never had a problem with call quality in all the meetings I've been on.

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8 hours ago, Riedquat said:

Plenty of people are begging for the government to do just that. Turns my stomach.

But then if you let people entirely self-regulate they (for example) buy a year's worth of toilet paper to see themselves through the next few weeks, leaving others with nothing.

Sometimes you need the government to step in.

But the default position should be that they should step in the absolute least that they need to.

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I DJ at weddings, birthdays, karaoke nights etc. on a part time basis. I speak to a lot of DJ's on facebook groups. Many of them have been having large quantities of cancellations as venues close and weddings are cancelled.
I had been thinking about the imact of many of the following groups of workers loosing some or all their income globally
Restaurant staff, bar staff, hotel workers, Airlines, DJ’s, Entertainment venues, entertainers, public transport workers.
Student venues and hangouts, bingo halls, arcades, holiday camps, plus many more I haven't thought of.

Would you reckon a hundred million jobs lost worldwide for the next 3 to 6 month whilst the virus is at it's first peak.

That's a bigger impact than 2008 when a few house builders and banks went down and globally together at the same time +/- 14 days

I guess the government will have to give everyone money 'check in the post' or freeze rent, mortgages, council tax, utility bills so that a massive deflationary collapse is avoided. I think it could be a few days to late for that though.

If the world goverments print and hand out cash, I'm thinking that after the defaltioinary collapse is over rapid global inflation will begin due to the lack of supply of goods.

If the goverments do that, then we have another lost decade but worse than the last?
 

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4 hours ago, ucnvpe0 said:

I suspect inflation will rise. A lot of things are out of stock in the shop.

People are forced to buy the more expensive brands. 

Supply of 'stuff' is going to be way down and the Central Banks are dumping trillions into the system (which was already bloated with 'cheap' money) - only one way that this is going to go.

 

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Listening to Radio 4 earlier I heard a lot of people bleating for financial support through this, some guy who owned or was representing a load of pub owners. Radio 4 talking about these people wanting benefits through this period. It annoys me because I haven't worked for 3 years and I'm supporting myself through savings, I can't claim anything and don't expect to. Welcome to my world of no income. It's amazing how many people live pay packet to pay packet with barely a month of savings if they aren't earning. Also the amount of bills they have, which I'm sure are non essential items, which is why they have no savings in the first place. Complete lack of financial sense and its tax payers who will pay for them and the prudent.

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12 minutes ago, bear.getting.old said:

Listening to Radio 4 earlier I heard a lot of people bleating for financial support through this, some guy who owned or was representing a load of pub owners. Radio 4 talking about these people wanting benefits through this period. It annoys me because I haven't worked for 3 years and I'm supporting myself through savings, I can't claim anything and don't expect to. Welcome to my world of no income. It's amazing how many people live pay packet to pay packet with barely a month of savings if they aren't earning. Also the amount of bills they have, which I'm sure are non essential items, which is why they have no savings in the first place. Complete lack of financial sense and its tax payers who will pay for them and the prudent.

Cant you see that, there WONT BE TAXPAYERS unless the government step in. I just started a business (a restaurant), I work literally 90 hours a week. Working in two full time jobs (self employed and new business), I did not buy a house instead invested £100K for my business, employing 2 full time and 3 part time staff. And I am going to be bankrupt 3.5 full times jobs will disappear.  And asking a rent, utility bills help makes you annoyed. ****** off

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Hats off to you for starting a business. If you go bankrupt at least you will be able to claim benefits. Starting a business is a risky affair, if it goes well you are sorted, if it doesn't, well that is your risk. You can't expect every failed business to be bailed out otherwise there is no moral hazard and nothing to seperate the good businesses from the zombie inefficiently run ones. I sincerely hope you won't go bankrupt though.

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20 minutes ago, bear.getting.old said:

Listening to Radio 4 earlier I heard a lot of people bleating for financial support through this, some guy who owned or was representing a load of pub owners. Radio 4 talking about these people wanting benefits through this period. It annoys me because I haven't worked for 3 years and I'm supporting myself through savings, I can't claim anything and don't expect to. Welcome to my world of no income. It's amazing how many people live pay packet to pay packet with barely a month of savings if they aren't earning. Also the amount of bills they have, which I'm sure are non essential items, which is why they have no savings in the first place. Complete lack of financial sense and its tax payers who will pay for them and the prudent.

 

2 minutes ago, Dražen Petrović said:

Cant you see that, there WONT BE TAXPAYERS unless the government step in. 

The rest of Europe and even the US are announcing/preparing huge programmes to help businesses and laid off workers to survive. E.g. Germany is paying 75% of workers wage, Sweden is topping up self employed to 80% of their previous wage. Just about everyone apart from us is paying a realistic level of sick pay to all workers who are infected or quarantined.  

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1 minute ago, bear.getting.old said:

Hats off to you for starting a business. If you go bankrupt at least you will be able to claim benefits. Starting a business is a risky affair, if it goes well you are sorted, if it doesn't, well that is your risk. You can't expect every failed business to be bailed out otherwise there is no moral hazard and nothing to seperate the good businesses from the zombie inefficiently run ones. I sincerely hope you won't go bankrupt though.

Are you serious? Regardless of how much tax you have paid, the UK gives almost nothing to the self employed if their business fails. 

 

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27 minutes ago, bear.getting.old said:

Listening to Radio 4 earlier I heard a lot of people bleating for financial support through this, some guy who owned or was representing a load of pub owners. Radio 4 talking about these people wanting benefits through this period. It annoys me because I haven't worked for 3 years and I'm supporting myself through savings, I can't claim anything and don't expect to. Welcome to my world of no income. It's amazing how many people live pay packet to pay packet with barely a month of savings if they aren't earning. Also the amount of bills they have, which I'm sure are non essential items, which is why they have no savings in the first place. Complete lack of financial sense and its tax payers who will pay for them and the prudent.

Indeed when you are prudent and actually save something you are penalised 16k being the claim limit.

I doubt I am entitled to anything. No one has mentioned in those meetings those living with a 70plus adult and their quarantine arrangements.

They should pay a careers allowance for the forced quarantine Time.

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2 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Are you serious? Regardless of how much tax you have paid, the UK gives almost nothing to the self employed if their business fails. 

 

You can't have it both ways. We have all been here for years wishing for something to pop the bubble, and now it's here you are complaining its not fair

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3 hours ago, xiox said:

Persuade them to try Zoom.us instead. It's cheap and we've never had a problem with call quality in all the meetings I've been on.

Both provide excellent call quality, if they are having quality problems its the setup/infrastructure not any inherent Skype issue. 

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5 minutes ago, longgone said:

Indeed when you are prudent and actually save something you are penalised 16k being the claim limit.

I doubt I am entitled to anything. No one has mentioned in those meetings those living with a 70plus adult and their quarantine arrangements.

They should pay a careers allowance for the forced quarantine Time.

Carers allowance is pittance I agree and the 16K limit should be 100K +

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Best just let the zombie businesses go to the wall and pay everyone a citizens income, instead of forcing poeple to do non jobs for 40 years.  All those crappy businesses making home made cards and fudge are done for now.

They're just a waste of everyones time and energy, so no great loss.  That goes for many big zombie clubs that will also go bust before this virus debacle plays out.

I actually think most big retail and crap food outlets like Nandos, Five Guys, TGI Fridays and efforts like that will all be for the bin too.

People will realise pretty quick that they don't need them and that will be that.

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  • 433 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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