Impact of coronavirus on economy - seeing first major impacts on the ground

[Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz]

Goodness me this really could be economic wipeout - people are already applying social isolation - I am seeing the impact here in Wales on hotels and restaurants - anyone else seeing evidence of this on the ground in other parts of the UK?  (PS. not a bad move - seeing how our primary containment measure at this stage is essentially medieval! Not sure the rest of us are up to the Chinese when it comes to this type of required shift in social behaviour!) 

WHO hinted at concerns we're not up to China's ability re: behaviour change - right here: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

 

Edited March 1, 2020 by gruffydd

[Si1]

I see denial from debt junkies. Also from the housing industry echo chamber - they're convinced this will lead to yet lower interest rates. Some more professional economists say the "risk on" switch will lead to higher market interest rates which central banks will be broadly powerless to fight with lower CB rates. 

I've noticed some kids toys are in less supply, no cheap over supply anywhere, ones made on China. (Daughter's birthday soon)

Edited March 1, 2020 by Si1

[Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz]

6 minutes ago, Si1 said:

I see denial from debt junkies. Also from the housing industry echo chamber - they're convinced this will lead to yet lower interest rates. Some more professional economists say the risk on switch will lead to higher market interest rates which central banks will be broadly powerless to fight with lower CB rates.

They are failing to apply even basic levels of analysis - also saw the usual crap from the BBC re: "thousands of deaths each year from seasonal flu" - the average is 600. death rate of 0.04% as opposed to 1.0-2.5% with this outbreak so far. 

The real issue (in terms of overall impact) is the c.20% serious or critical illness rate with this virus - impact on wider aspects of society - healthcare might collapse so fatality rates would go up and would knock-on to those suffering other serious and critical illnesses. 

This has the potential to do more than simply undermine the economy, if you do a bit of number crunching - sadly many seem unable to apply logic to numbers - including many financial analysts. 

We may get some help from warmer Summer weather - we may end up waiting 2 years for a vaccine. In the meantime our main method of containment is essentially medieval. 

Edited March 1, 2020 by gruffydd

[Si1]

5 minutes ago, gruffydd said:

They lack basic levels of analysis - also saw the usual crap from the BBC re: "thousands of deaths each year from seasonal flu" - the average is 600. death rate of 0.04% as opposed to 1.0-2.5% with this outbreak so far. 

The real issue is the c.20% serious or critical illness rate with this virus - impact on wider aspects of society - healthcare might collapse so fatality rates would go up and would knock-on to those suffering other serious and critical illnesses. 

This has the potential to do more than simply undermine the economy, if you do a bit of number crunching - sadly many seem unable to apply logic to numbers - including many financial analysts. 

Yeah. normal flu doesn't come in an exponential shock. People simply don't intuit power laws of growth. If you overwhelm the health service then people will die from other stuff that normally gets treated. That's a pretty central point. 

 

And bearing in mind record private debt, households literally stretched to the limit month after month. Simply can't accommodate a financial shock. And of course the govt and central bank don't have much ammo left to help.

Edited March 1, 2020 by Si1

[Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz]

1 minute ago, Si1 said:

Yeah. normal flu doesn't come in an exponential shock. People simply don't intuit power laws of growth. If you overwhelm the health service then people will die from other stuff that normally gets treated. That's a pretty central point. 

Even those with coronavirus will suffer much higher death rates too if capacity to treat is reached - I am guessing up to 5/10% death rate without access to treatment - not sure though as haven't located any stats on that aspect. 

[simvastatin]

Last night i went past a few pubs to collect my Saturday night pizza, same places i go past most saturday nights they all seemed half empty, normally they are packed, but it was very cold last night so that may also be part of the reason.

[winkie]

35 minutes ago, Si1 said:

I see denial from debt junkies. Also from the housing industry echo chamber - they're convinced this will lead to yet lower interest rates. Some more professional economists say the "risk on" switch will lead to higher market interest rates which central banks will be broadly powerless to fight with lower CB rates. 

I've noticed some kids toys are in less supply, no cheap over supply anywhere, ones made on China. (Daughter's birthday soon)

Kids do not need plastic toys.....they need parents that have time for them.

[Patfig]

3 hours ago, gruffydd said:

They are failing to apply even basic levels of analysis - also saw the usual crap from the BBC re: "thousands of deaths each year from seasonal flu" - the average is 600. death rate of 0.04% as opposed to 1.0-2.5% with this outbreak so far. 

The real issue (in terms of overall impact) is the c.20% serious or critical illness rate with this virus - impact on wider aspects of society - healthcare might collapse so fatality rates would go up and would knock-on to those suffering other serious and critical illnesses. 

This has the potential to do more than simply undermine the economy, if you do a bit of number crunching - sadly many seem unable to apply logic to numbers - including many financial analysts. 

We may get some help from warmer Summer weather - we may end up waiting 2 years for a vaccine. In the meantime our main method of containment is essentially medieval. 

Don't worry we are going to get retired doctors and nurses redeployed all will be fine!!

 

Time for a bit of tin foil hat stockpiling perhaps.

[Odysseus]

20 minutes ago, Patfig said:

Don't worry we are going to get retired doctors and nurses redeployed all will be fine!!

 

Time for a bit of tin foil hat stockpiling perhaps.

My wife is a GP. Trust me - active GPs (and lots of them) are considering staying at home rather than going into work on account of how little protection they are being afforded by the NHS. I’m sure the retired (older/more like to die) will do the same.

[Patfig]

2 minutes ago, Odysseus said:

My wife is a GP. Trust me - active GPs (and lots of them) are considering staying at home rather than going into work on account of how little protection they are being afforded by the NHS. I’m sure the retired (older/more like to die) will do the same.

I agree

[mattyboy1973]

3 hours ago, gruffydd said:

The real issue (in terms of overall impact) is the c.20% serious or critical illness rate with this virus - impact on wider aspects of society - healthcare might collapse so fatality rates would go up and would knock-on to those suffering other serious and critical illnesses. 

Yes, absolutely - I've mentioned this elsewhere. On average, we get flu once every 7 years, so lets say 15% of the population might get it over the 5 months of the flu season, of which a percent or two might need hospital treatment. Perfectly level-headed (seeming) experts are talking about potential 60-80% infection rates from C19, which obviously sounds kind of crazy but makes sense given the total lack of immunity within the community. If the quoted 20% hospitalisation rate holds true, then that is an incredible number of people for the NHS to look after - and on top of being full to bursting with the normal winter ailments. I guess the big question will be how quickly it happens. It really is going to be quite an experience if they don't get it under control. 

[mattyboy1973]

4 minutes ago, Odysseus said:

I’m sure the retired (older/more like to die) will do the same.

As the most at-risk demographic, you'd have to have to a death wish (or an incredible sense of duty) to come out of retirement and put yourself in the firing line of this disease.

[mattyboy1973]

6 minutes ago, Odysseus said:

My wife is a GP. Trust me - active GPs (and lots of them) are considering staying at home rather than going into work on account of how little protection they are being afforded by the NHS. I’m sure the retired (older/more like to die) will do the same.

What happens when 50% of front line medical staff are too sick to work anyway?

[Patfig]

2 minutes ago, mattyboy1973 said:

Yes, absolutely - I've mentioned this elsewhere. On average, we get flu once every 7 years, so lets say 15% of the population might get it over the 5 months of the flu season, of which a percent or two might need hospital treatment. Perfectly level-headed (seeming) experts are talking about potential 60-80% infection rates from C19, which obviously sounds kind of crazy but makes sense given the total lack of immunity within the community. If the quoted 20% hospitalisation rate holds true, then that is an incredible number of people for the NHS to look after - and on top of being full to bursting with the normal winter ailments. I guess the big question will be how quickly it happens. It really is going to be quite an experience if they don't get it under control. 

We should be able to agree the NHS will not be able to cope, it's almost broken in many parts of the UK already. 

[Sour Mash]

3 hours ago, gruffydd said:

They are failing to apply even basic levels of analysis - also saw the usual crap from the BBC re: "thousands of deaths each year from seasonal flu" - the average is 600. death rate of 0.04% as opposed to 1.0-2.5% with this outbreak so far. 

The real issue (in terms of overall impact) is the c.20% serious or critical illness rate with this virus - impact on wider aspects of society - healthcare might collapse so fatality rates would go up and would knock-on to those suffering other serious and critical illnesses. 

This has the potential to do more than simply undermine the economy, if you do a bit of number crunching - sadly many seem unable to apply logic to numbers - including many financial analysts. 

We may get some help from warmer Summer weather - we may end up waiting 2 years for a vaccine. In the meantime our main method of containment is essentially medieval. 

 

The "It's not even as bad as the Flu" trope really seems to be standard across the media doesn't it?  A bit like how the media steadfastly ignored the bubble in the markets (particularly housing and CDOs) until the crisis of 2007/8.

Then afterwards they just proclaim that "no-one could have seen it coming" and keep on spewing lies and propaganda.

 

[Sour Mash]

3 hours ago, prozac said:

Last night i went past a few pubs to collect my Saturday night pizza, same places i go past most saturday nights they all seemed half empty, normally they are packed, but it was very cold last night so that may also be part of the reason.

I went out to the pub on Friday evening.  That will be my last night out for the next 2-3 months I would say.  I'm also curbing junkfood/ takeaway purchases for the duration.

We've seen cases explode once there are about 20-30 cases detected inside a day or two.  I would guess that we will be into the hundreds of diagnosed cases this time next week, with probably thousands of undiagnosed people carrying the infection around by that stage.  The graph for infections typically goes parabolic in countries where local transmission begins.

 

 

[Patfig]

6 minutes ago, Sour Mash said:

I went out to the pub on Friday evening.  That will be my last night out for the next 2-3 months I would say.  I'm also curbing junkfood/ takeaway purchases for the duration.

We've seen cases explode once there are about 20-30 cases detected inside a day or two.  I would guess that we will be into the hundreds of diagnosed cases this time next week, with probably thousands of undiagnosed people carrying the infection around by that stage.  The graph for infections typically goes parabolic in countries where local transmission begins.

 

 

Community transfer has begun

[mattyboy1973]

10 minutes ago, Sour Mash said:

I went out to the pub on Friday evening.  That will be my last night out for the next 2-3 months I would say.  I'm also curbing junkfood/ takeaway purchases for the duration.

We've seen cases explode once there are about 20-30 cases detected inside a day or two.  I would guess that we will be into the hundreds of diagnosed cases this time next week, with probably thousands of undiagnosed people carrying the infection around by that stage.  The graph for infections typically goes parabolic in countries where local transmission begins.

 

 

I hate to admit it but I took the kids to McDonalds today and I was struck by just how easily anything could spread in there. From the big touch screen ordering screens, with perhaps a thousand fingers smeared across them daily (didn't use - ordered at till), to the touch screen tablets shared by the kids on half of the tables. Add in the fact that everyone is eating with their (largely unwashed) hands, and the general proximity of so many people in a small space and I also resolved there and then that I would not be going out to eat or drink until this has blown over.

Edited March 1, 2020 by mattyboy1973

[Sour Mash]

Clearly the hospitality and tourist trade are going to be hammered economically. 

Also any sort of public transport including airlines especially as many of those journeys are more likely to be discretionary (you may have no choice but to take the train or bus to work).

Anything that depends on goods or raw materials from China is going to suffer supply chain disruptions.  ie. Almost everything retail and a lot of things manufacturing.  And supply chain will be disrupted further as the virus hits more SE Asian countries and then as people in the UK decide that discretion is the safest part of valour and decide to stay at home.

 

[Patfig]

5 minutes ago, Sour Mash said:

Clearly the hospitality and tourist trade are going to be hammered economically. 

Also any sort of public transport including airlines especially as many of those journeys are more likely to be discretionary (you may have no choice but to take the train or bus to work).

Anything that depends on goods or raw materials from China is going to suffer supply chain disruptions.  ie. Almost everything retail and a lot of things manufacturing.  And supply chain will be disrupted further as the virus hits more SE Asian countries and then as people in the UK decide that discretion is the safest part of valour and decide to stay at home.

 

Its going to get messy yes but if folks aren't buying crap from China or visiting pubs and takeaways then they will have more money to spend on houses and prices will rise...…………………. I'll get me coat!

Edited March 1, 2020 by Patfig
typo

[Sour Mash]

1 minute ago, Patfig said:

Its going to get messy yes but if folks aren't buying crap from China or visiting pubs and takeaways then they will have more money to soend on houses and prices will rise...…………………. I'll get me coat!

I think house prices may well fall but would expect strong inflation in the consumer economy generally.

 

We KNOW that the response will be zero (or even negative) rates and money printing.  Plus there will be a big shortfall in goods produced.  That only means one thing - fast rising prices.

 

[mattyboy1973]

4 minutes ago, Sour Mash said:

Also any sort of public transport including airlines especially

Not just holidays either - airlines make a lot of their money from premium business travel, and some reports suggest that this is coming to a sudden stop. I think both Amazon and Google have announced a suspension on all business travel, no doubt many other companies are doing the same. Perhaps they'll realise that many of these meetings can just as well be carried out over video phone anyway, and travel will never return to pre-epidemic levels? Win for the environment if so, although less good for the airlines of course.

[Patfig]

1 minute ago, Sour Mash said:

I think house prices may well fall but would expect strong inflation in the consumer economy generally.

 

We KNOW that the response will be zero (or even negative) rates and money printing.  Plus there will be a big shortfall in goods produced.  That only means one thing - fast rising prices.

 

I will sell my 6 tins of corned beef when it hits my ceiling

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

1 hour ago, Patfig said:

Don't worry we are going to get retired doctors and nurses redeployed all will be fine!!

 

Time for a bit of tin foil hat stockpiling perhaps.

Yes, I did wonder if it was a conspiracy to reduce NHS Pension costs.

"Welcome back to the NHS; formerly well paid and now very well pensioned consultant! We have some highly infectious patients for you to care for and don't worry the disease is normally only lethal to the  over 60s......"  "oh you are over 60"

[Patfig]

1 minute ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

Yes, I did wonder if it was a conspiracy to reduce NHS Pension costs.

"Welcome back to the NHS; formerly well paid and now very well pensioned consultant! We have some highly infectious patients for you to care for and don't worry the disease is normally only lethal to the  over 60s......"  "oh you are over 60"

Cynical