First Time Buyer in Belfast

[2buyornot2buy]

40 minutes ago, headmelter said:

We're all going to be skint for an extended period of time.... with the Tories in govt for 5 years I'm expecting austerity on steroids & continued money printing when the dust of the pandemic settles... I do expect a considerable houseprice correction UK wide but especially in London.

Another 5 years for the under 40s not to put a penny into the pension. 

Edited May 1, 2020 by 2buyornot2buy

[Belfast Boy]

18 hours ago, CMC said:

Yea seems sensible! Hopefully get reduced rent and see how the property market looks when the dust settles. 

You may find this website useful - Residential Property Rateable Value - https://lpsni.gov.uk/vListDCV/search.asp?submit=form

More information here - https://www.nidirect.gov.uk/articles/valuation-of-domestic-properties-for-rates

Those valuations were set at the beginning of 2005. I estimate that the previous bubble started at the beginning of 2002.

House prices fell from 2007 to 2013 - roughly back to 2005 price levels. 

 

Edited May 1, 2020 by Belfast Boy

[Belfast Boy]

I think it may be possible to contact LPS to find the previous selling prices of a property - for a small fee. It would be good to know this to see how much the seller can afford to drop their price. Especially in a buyers market.

Edited May 1, 2020 by Belfast Boy

[CMC]

2 hours ago, Belfast Boy said:

I think it may be possible to contact LPS to find the previous selling prices of a property - for a small fee. It would be good to know this to see how much the seller can afford to drop their price. Especially in a buyers market.

Thank you so much for this Belfast Boy! 
Im really glad I’ve found this forum 
 

[Belfast Boy]

2 minutes ago, CMC said:

Thank you so much for this Belfast Boy! 
Im really glad I’ve found this forum 
 

Your welcome.

Just remember the advice here is worth exactly what you paid for it.

DYOR - do your own research.

[Belfast Boy]

4 hours ago, headmelter said:

I'll probably be looking to move in 3-4 years ...

If you don't mind me asking - how close to RV was the house you bought in 2012?

Edited May 1, 2020 by Belfast Boy

[pod]

and it goes without saying, as well as factoring in any potential HPC, FTBs should obviously factor in the likelihood that they'll have a job in several months.

[Belfast Boy]

51 minutes ago, pod said:

and it goes without saying, as well as factoring in any potential HPC, FTBs should obviously factor in the likelihood that they'll have a job in several months.

The lenders are going to be checking that. No more self cert. Might even affect guarantor backed lending. 

Edited May 1, 2020 by Belfast Boy

[headmelter]

5 hours ago, Belfast Boy said:

If you don't mind me asking - how close to RV was the house you bought in 2012?

IIRC I paid £2k more than the 2005 rateable value. The house was 9 yrs old in 2012 & the previous owners had put a sun room on in 2008 which hadn't been rated.

[Belfast Boy]

1 hour ago, headmelter said:

IIRC I paid £2k more than the 2005 rateable value. The house was 9 yrs old in 2012 & the previous owners had put a sun room on in 2008 which hadn't been rated.

Thank you. It's good to have some real life examples.

[JoeDavola]

On 01/05/2020 at 13:04, Belfast Boy said:

I think it may be possible to contact LPS to find the previous selling prices of a property - for a small fee. It would be good to know this to see how much the seller can afford to drop their price. Especially in a buyers market.

You have to go down to their offices beside BT tower and pay £5 per property search.

It's an eye opener.

I've seen examples over over 50% drops logged pre and post crash. Eye watering sums of money lost.

[CMC]

Update, 

 

We offered 6% below asking price a week ago. Sellers responded today and did not accept. They are going to put it back on the market and I've asked our solicitor to send the deeds back and close our file. 

 

 

 

 

[Belfast Boy]

2 hours ago, CMC said:

Update, 

We offered 6% below asking price a week ago. Sellers responded today and did not accept. They are going to put it back on the market and I've asked our solicitor to send the deeds back and close our file. 

You were being generous under the circumstances. Your seller will regret not accepting your offer in a years time.

Without giving specifics - what percentage above rateable value was the property?

Edited May 12, 2020 by Belfast Boy

[CMC]

15% above rateable value. It wasn't the most expensive compared to similar houses on the street but it also needed a bit of work which was factored in the asking price 

[CMC]

Do you think that sellers/ EAs are increasing prices because they know a bidding war is unlikely now? 

Do you think they are inflating the prices so that when a buyer offers 10% under asking price they feel they've got a good deal? 

These are just two examples I'd been looking at before lockdown that have come back on the market.

 

[2buyornot2buy]

10 minutes ago, CMC said:

Do you think that sellers/ EAs are increasing prices because they know a bidding war is unlikely now? 

Do you think they are inflating the prices so that when a buyer offers 10% under asking price they feel they've got a good deal? 

These are just two examples I'd been looking at before lockdown that have come back on the market.

 

What are you using for the price history?

Could be increased to make it look better when they decrease again. Bit like Tesco. 

[CMC]

1 minute ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

What are you using for the price history?

Could be increased to make it look better when they decrease again. Bit like Tesco. 

Propertypal just. Only comes up for properties I have 'favourited' and for any listed by TR or SB it always says:

'No price / status changes since first being listed on PropertyPal'

They seem to delete original listing and readvertise instead. 

[2buyornot2buy]

13 minutes ago, CMC said:

Propertypal just. Only comes up for properties I have 'favourited' and for any listed by TR or SB it always says:

'No price / status changes since first being listed on PropertyPal'

They seem to delete original listing and readvertise instead. 

Didn't know it worked like that. 

You can also use home.co.uk to pick up the TR and SB drops. 

For example this one that's dropped 15.5%

 

https://www.home.co.uk/search/price_info.htm?property=4238389299

They are relisting everything at the moment. 

[JoeDavola]

So it looks like the real economic fallout of all this won't become apparent until after October when the furlough ends.

So if there are to be price drops one would assume the earliest they can happen is at some point in 2021, perhaps well into the year as these things tend to take time.

[Belfast Boy]

8 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

So it looks like the real economic fallout of all this won't become apparent until after October when the furlough ends.

So if there are to be price drops one would assume the earliest they can happen is at some point in 2021, perhaps well into the year as these things tend to take time.

This is a once in a lifetime event. Lots of things are going to change.

[stingray192]

I’m watching this with serious interest, id no intention of moving at all, yet there is a house  currently for sale that I would jump at if the price was reduced. It would need to come down several hundred thousand but I’m watching closely , A friends son has just put their house for sale, it’s a 3 bed semi and they have 8 lots of people wanting to view it, it’s only been listed a few days, this says that the current situation isn’t deterring anyone , obviously that might change but at the moment there is serious interest 

[2buyornot2buy]

6 hours ago, stingray192 said:

A friends son has just put their house for sale, it’s a 3 bed semi and they have 8 lots of people wanting to view it, it’s only been listed a few days, this says that the current situation isn’t deterring anyone , obviously that might change but at the moment there is serious interest 

Tell your friends son not to be too optimistic. Hopefully all 8 lots of people have a job come October. I expect several hundred thousand won't. Including several hundred solicitors who depend on conveyancing revenue to pay the mortgage. 

People are already pulling out of transactions. 

Edited May 31, 2020 by 2buyornot2buy

[JoeDavola]

16 hours ago, stingray192 said:

I’m watching this with serious interest, id no intention of moving at all, yet there is a house  currently for sale that I would jump at if the price was reduced. It would need to come down several hundred thousand but I’m watching closely , A friends son has just put their house for sale, it’s a 3 bed semi and they have 8 lots of people wanting to view it, it’s only been listed a few days, this says that the current situation isn’t deterring anyone , obviously that might change but at the moment there is serious interest 

See that's why I still have my doubts that things will crash. Although naturally I hope they will.

Will job losses even be enough. Would they have to be paired with a considerable reduction in credit availability.

Until then it doesn't surprise me that as soon as the government gives the go ahead people will go back to fighting with eachother to spend 200K on that 2.5 bed 4 winds semi.

[2buyornot2buy]

9 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

See that's why I still have my doubts that things will crash. Although naturally I hope they will.

Will job losses even be enough. Would they have to be paired with a considerable reduction in credit availability.

Until then it doesn't surprise me that as soon as the government gives the go ahead people will go back to fighting with eachother to spend 200K on that 2.5 bed 4 winds semi.

Furlough has delayed the inevitable. It's all well and good booking a viewing for a house when you've been paid 80% of salary for sitting at home. Something to do even.

The job losses are going to be absolutely massive. 

[JoeDavola]

1 hour ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

Furlough has delayed the inevitable. It's all well and good booking a viewing for a house when you've been paid 80% of salary for sitting at home. Something to do even.

The job losses are going to be absolutely massive. 

Do you know anyone who runs businesses with high numbers of workers furloughed? Are these places all planning to let a percentage of people go in October when the furlough money runs out?