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Mass changes to UK immigration requirements


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18 minutes ago, debtlessmanc said:

This has got to be worth a post, figures on EU benefit claimants, I don't think we have seen these before.

there are 800k EU citizens in the U.K. on benefits, but get this...

with 7 days to go 130k have not applied for residency status  yet!! 
do they exist? Are they even in the country!? Are they totally disengaged from the society they live in?


https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/jun/21/130000-eu-citizens-on-uk-benefits-yet-to-apply-for-settled-status-leak-suggests

 

They dont know how many havent applied as they dont know how many are in the country.

 

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30 minutes ago, debtlessmanc said:

This has got to be worth a post, figures on EU benefit claimants, I don't think we have seen these before.

there are 800k EU citizens in the U.K. on benefits, but get this...

with 7 days to go 130k have not applied for residency status  yet!! 
do they exist? Are they even in the country!? Are they totally disengaged from the society they live in?


https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/jun/21/130000-eu-citizens-on-uk-benefits-yet-to-apply-for-settled-status-leak-suggests

 

People can be very disengaged from the country they live in.

I wonder how many Brits get benefits in the EU.

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11 minutes ago, iamnumerate said:

People can be very disengaged from the country they live in.

I wonder how many Brits get benefits in the EU.

In search of the only Briton in Poland claiming benefits

This article is more than 6 years old
One of the 4,500 Britons living in Poland is apparently claiming unemployment benefit. Helen Pidd tries to track him down

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jan/19/-sp-search-for-only-briton-poland-claiming-benefits

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Brexit: EU citizens given 28-day deadline to apply to stay in UK

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-57562285

Some 5.6 million European Economic Area (EEA) citizens and their dependents have applied for settled status.

.....

Maike Bohn, co-founder of the EU citizens' campaign group the3million, said: "It's good that people can apply late, but the crux is they're unlawful as they haven't put an application in.

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Campaign group the3million, whose name underlines the vast underestimation in the number of EU citizens previously believed to be living in the UK, said they had received numerous reports of people struggling to receive a “certificate of application”, the paperwork that guarantees their rights are protected while their application is pending.

 

😂

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On 19/02/2020 at 21:27, slawek said:

You shouldn't take this tweet so literally. Examples you gave are just your personal experience, not representative of the real situation. For an example you claim that there are no Romanian nurses it is completely wrong, see the table below.

People from the EU works in all kind of jobs, you can't make any claims based on their nationalities. My accountant is Polish, a woman running nursery was Polish, my GP is German. People working in the City (traders, sales, quants, IT) are from all over the EU, German, Ireland, French, Italy, Poland,  Spain, Netherlands, Austria.

Your claim that there is 5-10mln EUs in the UK is simply crazy.   

image.png.43d04eae21e5cdbf82c55646ecf79a10.png

http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7783/CBP-7783.pdf

So ..... 18 months after your reply stating that I'm crazeeee, followed by Brits are mental for voting Brexit.

~5.7m applied.

1.3mln left. Apparently, as theres no counting or register.

Huge numbers still not applied.

I would guess there are - or has been - ~7m-8m EUers in the UK. Maybe more.

Majority on low pay, massive cost to UK taxpayer.

They have been the main cause of the U.k housing crisis.

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10 hours ago, PeanutButter said:

Campaign group the3million, whose name underlines the vast underestimation in the number of EU citizens previously believed to be living in the UK, said they had received numerous reports of people struggling to receive a “certificate of application”, the paperwork that guarantees their rights are protected while their application is pending.

 

😂

If only someone could see this before the Brexit vote .....

Almost 10 years of MSM going - 3m EUers.... working ....

Clueless.

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11 hours ago, PeanutButter said:

Campaign group the3million, whose name underlines the vast underestimation in the number of EU citizens previously believed to be living in the UK, said they had received numerous reports of people struggling to receive a “certificate of application”, the paperwork that guarantees their rights are protected while their application is pending.

 

😂

Theres two massive lies - or gormless ignorance- regarding EUs -

3m

Paying tax/working.

With inwork subs and free at point of use you need to be looking at net tax generators.

Majority of EU families, which us what are mainly here, are generating -25k/y.

TCs and schooling costs are the killer for UK taxpayers.

Simple fix- copy Spains system.

Or charge for schooling and NHS costs up front. Let the EU claim it back against tax paid the next year.

 

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1 hour ago, spyguy said:

So ..... 18 months after your reply stating that I'm crazeeee, followed by Brits are mental for voting Brexit.

~5.7m applied.

1.3mln left. Apparently, as theres no counting or register.

Huge numbers still not applied.

I would guess there are - or has been - ~7m-8m EUers in the UK. Maybe more.

Majority on low pay, massive cost to UK taxpayer.

They have been the main cause of the U.k housing crisis.

Well done for being proved right - I doubt you will get an apology though.

 

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37 minutes ago, iamnumerate said:

Well done for being proved right - I doubt you will get an apology though.

 

1_March_21.png

Youd need to see that line levelling off for a few quarters before you could reasonably assume 95%+ have applied.

The number of applications is nowhere near levelling off.

 

 

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41 minutes ago, iamnumerate said:

Well done for being proved right - I doubt you will get an apology though.

 

He's only proved right if the market has been correcting as EU nationals leave.

You'd expect to see drops in line with those leaving this past 18 months.

Hasn't happened has it?

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, spyguy said:

So ..... 18 months after your reply stating that I'm crazeeee, followed by Brits are mental for voting Brexit.

~5.7m applied.

1.3mln left. Apparently, as theres no counting or register.

Huge numbers still not applied.

I would guess there are - or has been - ~7m-8m EUers in the UK. Maybe more.

Majority on low pay, massive cost to UK taxpayer.

They have been the main cause of the U.k housing crisis.

Let me repeat this again

The number of people who applied is NOT equal the number of Eu citizens in the UK

For the following reasons

1. many people applied and left the UK

2. you can apply from abroad

3. applications also include non-EUs citizens

My guess there is around 4.5m EU citizens in the UK at the moment. See my previous posts for more quantitative analysis.  

As for HPI. How do you explain that 1.3m left and house prices increased over 10% last year?

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7 hours ago, slawek said:

Let me repeat this again

The number of people who applied is NOT equal the number of Eu citizens in the UK

For the following reasons

1. many people applied and left the UK

2. you can apply from abroad

3. applications also include non-EUs citizens

My guess there is around 4.5m EU citizens in the UK at the moment. See my previous posts for more quantitative analysis.  

As for HPI. How do you explain that 1.3m left and house prices increased over 10% last year?

That is still 1.5 million than the number estimated.

Also if a non EU citizen is here because of the EU then their presence is a benefit or cost (depending on your point of view) due to the EU.

With regards to HPI I don't think that immigration is the only thing and even if it were there would be lag.

 

I do think however migration (both internal and external)* is responsible for the difference in rises between the smallest and highest rises in the UK.

 

*HPI doesn't really care if someone buying a house is moving from London or Hong Kong.

 

 

Edited by iamnumerate
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9 hours ago, iamnumerate said:

Well done for being proved right - I doubt you will get an apology though.

 

Less about being proved right - and despite the straw grasping, I reckon I'm close - it's that everyone - posters on here, BBC, EU, UK pols, eu pols etc - just did not consider there had been a massive increase in EU citizens.

All parroted the same 3m .... working ....

There were 2m-3m EUers in the UK *before* EE ascension.

And to that, add tge Euro debt crisis, which have seen notable percentage of Portugese, Spanish and Italians move to the UK.

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37 minutes ago, iamnumerate said:

That is still 1.5 million than the number estimated.

Also if a non EU citizen is here because of the EU then their presence is a benefit or cost (depending on your point of view) due to the EU.

With regards to HPI I don't think that immigration is the only thing and even if it were there would be lag.

 

I do think however migration (both internal and external)* is responsible for the difference in rises between the smallest and highest rises in the UK.

 

*HPI doesn't really care if someone buying a house is moving from London or Hong Kong.

3m was from 2015. The ONS latest estimation from 2019 I can find (see below) is 3.7m. It doesn't include living in communal establishments (students). The ONS number doesn't include people who are in the UK without an intention to stay longer either.  If you correct for those two things you probably get a number above 4m. My 4.5m is just a guess. I wouldn't be surprised if it was off by +/- 10%.  

As for the non-EUs applying for the settlement scheme, the number given by ONS and claims made by me and others were about EUs. So for the sake of the comparison with ONS and against the previous claims they should be excluded.  

I've always said the immigration had some impact on house prices but it was not the main driver.  The main issues are low interest rates and speculation (hoarding). 

image.thumb.png.aada8264ee2ca5d0c31b57950731af07.png https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/eu-migration-to-and-from-the-uk/

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On 27/06/2021 at 07:44, spyguy said:

So ..... 18 months after your reply stating that I'm crazeeee, followed by Brits are mental for voting Brexit.

~5.7m applied.

1.3mln left. Apparently, as theres no counting or register.

Huge numbers still not applied.

I would guess there are - or has been - ~7m-8m EUers in the UK. Maybe more.

Majority on low pay, massive cost to UK taxpayer.

They have been the main cause of the U.k housing crisis.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/06/28/brexit-has-proved-far-eu-migrants-officialdom-dared-admit/

It was meant to be three million. It is already looking more like five. It could easily turn out to be seven or perhaps even eight million. From tomorrow, as the deadline for applications under the “settled status” scheme expires, we will finally have some clear statistics on just how many people from the European Union are living and working in the UK. One point is already clear, however. The rate of immigration was far higher than anyone realised. There were several million more people here than anyone knew....

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On 24/02/2020 at 11:42, Dorkins said:

So far the 3m estimate doesn't seem to have been very wrong. No sign of the additional 5-7 million EUers you have been claiming for years are in the UK. I am guessing that when the final settlement scheme number is in you will switch back to claiming they are invisible couchsurfers, grandparents staying with kids etc.

.......

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25 minutes ago, spyguy said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/06/28/brexit-has-proved-far-eu-migrants-officialdom-dared-admit/

It was meant to be three million. It is already looking more like five. It could easily turn out to be seven or perhaps even eight million. From tomorrow, as the deadline for applications under the “settled status” scheme expires, we will finally have some clear statistics on just how many people from the European Union are living and working in the UK. One point is already clear, however. The rate of immigration was far higher than anyone realised. There were several million more people here than anyone knew....

The final number? About seven million seems a reasonable estimate but it could be higher. On top of that, we have to keep in mind that lots of people may have decided to go home over the last year, either because of Covid-19 or because they can’t be bothered with the paperwork needed to stay. 
The net result?
 
At the peak, eight or nine million EU citizens may have been working in the UK. My maths can be a little wobbly at times, but I can confidently say that is a lot more than the 2.2 million in the official figures. It was out by a factor of three or four, or perhaps five million people – the equivalent of seven or eight Manchesters with a couple of Liverpools thrown in.
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9 hours ago, spyguy said:
The final number? About seven million seems a reasonable estimate but it could be higher. On top of that, we have to keep in mind that lots of people may have decided to go home over the last year, either because of Covid-19 or because they can’t be bothered with the paperwork needed to stay. 
The net result?
 
At the peak, eight or nine million EU citizens may have been working in the UK. My maths can be a little wobbly at times, but I can confidently say that is a lot more than the 2.2 million in the official figures. It was out by a factor of three or four, or perhaps five million people – the equivalent of seven or eight Manchesters with a couple of Liverpools thrown in.

Apparently there are significant numbers of EU citizens living in the U.K. who do not even know Brexit has occurred, as though they have been here 30 years they still cannot read or speak a European language...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/27/uks-east-timorese-population-faces-loss-of-rights-after-brexit

this is just one group there must be many others. The number known to be  living here is just going to keep on rising for years.

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8 minutes ago, debtlessmanc said:

Apparently there are significant numbers of EU citizens living in the U.K. who do not even know Brexit has occurred, as though they have been here 30 years they still cannot read or speak a European language...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/27/uks-east-timorese-population-faces-loss-of-rights-after-brexit

this is just one group there must be many others. The number known to be  living here is just going to keep on rising for years.

Former professional footballer Onorio, 28, who arrived in 2020, said: “I was totally shocked by it when I arrived in the UK. I had never heard of Brexit while I was in East Timor. It was only when I arrived that I found out that things had changed.

~ 12 months. Turning up during a world wide panic.

https://www.heraldgoa.in/Cafe/Large-hearted-Swindon-Goans-sleep-in-the-cold-to-raise-funds-during-COVID-times/168779

Swindon has a large Goan community numbering around 13,000 and Aan said it made her very happy to be of assistance to the community whenever anyone comes over for surgery. Along with the Swindon association, she was able to help around 30 families with groceries and she intended to do more during Christmas. She said “People are without jobs or insecure jobs and you have to remember so many hotels are shut. It is a tough situation.” 

Sleeping out to help homelessness in Swindon.....

All turned up in the last ~15 years.

All 'Portuguese'

 

 

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27 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Former professional footballer Onorio, 28, who arrived in 2020, said: “I was totally shocked by it when I arrived in the UK. I had never heard of Brexit while I was in East Timor. It was only when I arrived that I found out that things had changed.

~ 12 months. Turning up during a world wide panic.

https://www.heraldgoa.in/Cafe/Large-hearted-Swindon-Goans-sleep-in-the-cold-to-raise-funds-during-COVID-times/168779

Swindon has a large Goan community numbering around 13,000 and Aan said it made her very happy to be of assistance to the community whenever anyone comes over for surgery. Along with the Swindon association, she was able to help around 30 families with groceries and she intended to do more during Christmas. She said “People are without jobs or insecure jobs and you have to remember so many hotels are shut. It is a tough situation.” 

Sleeping out to help homelessness in Swindon.....

All turned up in the last ~15 years.

All 'Portuguese'

 

 

All these other groups were hidden in the woodwork and now they are starting to be noticed, I wonder what their immigration status is

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7 minutes ago, shlomo said:

All these other groups were hidden in the woodwork and now they are starting to be noticed, I wonder what their immigration status is

Hidden????

Swindon's pop is ~220k.

5% - and Id guess that 13k is an underestimate - is Goan.

Thats 1 in 20.

Chuck in the other EU countries - 

https://www.swindonadvertiser.co.uk/news/19170652.eu-citizens-urged-apply-scheme-remain-swindon/

The highest number of applications was submitted by Portuguese people -7,940 - followed by people from Poland with 3,840 and Romania, 2,210.

Note the vast variations in estimates.

https://www.swindonadvertiser.co.uk/news/18985415.22-000-eu-nationals-successfully-apply-continue-living-swindon/

Around 22,100 EU nationals have successfully applied to continue living in Swindon after Brexit.

Galaxy-man 5th January 8:35 am
 

User ID: 2158874

1 Wow. Really? That's a lot of people.

 

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1 hour ago, spyguy said:

Former professional footballer Onorio, 28, who arrived in 2020, said: “I was totally shocked by it when I arrived in the UK. I had never heard of Brexit while I was in East Timor. It was only when I arrived that I found out that things had changed.

~ 12 months. Turning up during a world wide panic.

https://www.heraldgoa.in/Cafe/Large-hearted-Swindon-Goans-sleep-in-the-cold-to-raise-funds-during-COVID-times/168779

Swindon has a large Goan community numbering around 13,000 and Aan said it made her very happy to be of assistance to the community whenever anyone comes over for surgery. Along with the Swindon association, she was able to help around 30 families with groceries and she intended to do more during Christmas. She said “People are without jobs or insecure jobs and you have to remember so many hotels are shut. It is a tough situation.” 

Sleeping out to help homelessness in Swindon.....

All turned up in the last ~15 years.

All 'Portuguese'

 

 

I spoke to a Portuguese academic a few years ago about refugees. He admitted that they were very generous in granting asylum but as soon as the get a Portuguese passport "99% of the time they leave Portugal"

 

14 minutes ago, PeanutButter said:

Looks like the govt and media have conspired for decades to gaslight UK citizens. ‘No, don’t believe your own eyes and experiences, you are mistaken, and if you keeping saying it you’re lying.’ 

It has been an enormous source of anger amongst people that they were being lied to, far more than any anger at the migrants themselves. That a British govt cannot even be honest about a simple question like what is the population of the country - it's Banana republic stuff.

but all you need to know about it is demonstrated by the famous Gordon Brown v Mrs Duffy

Her "where are all this Eastern European's coming from" "

him "Bigoted woman"

perhaps she just expected you to be able to count Gordon? You were chancellor of the exchequer ffs.

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