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Mass changes to UK immigration requirements


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55 minutes ago, 14stFlyer said:

I guess the last five pages of this thread have shown that we have become very divided on the migration issue, with entrenched views on both sides.  I get the impression that both sides see their view as somehow “morally right” and I am not sure I can see why.  There are obviously different groups that benefit in different ways by the changes, but I cannot see how this makes one side intrinsically right and one wrong. 
 

Am I alone in finding the polarised nature of this thread (and views more generally on immigration and Brexit) quite scary?

No I am scared as well by it, my view is simple - don't pay people to come here and don't let in people who want to enforce foreign laws.

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1 hour ago, 14stFlyer said:

I guess the last five pages of this thread have shown that we have become very divided on the migration issue, with entrenched views on both sides.

Okay, but most of the last few pages of this thread have had nothing to do with UK immigration policy and have been blathering on about EU27 coronavirus budget negotiations.

Edited by Dorkins
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3 hours ago, Dorkins said:

Okay, but most of the last few pages of this thread have had nothing to do with UK immigration policy and have been blathering on about EU27 coronavirus budget negotiations.

People move west money travels east - and the people who move west eventually move money back east and buy a mansion for about a tenth of the price of a studio flat in Barking..

Its all Dutch to me!

Edited by MARTINX9
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  • 2 weeks later...

Straws. Grasping.

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/02/brexit-fuels-brain-drain-as-skilled-britons-head-to-the-eu

The study says that migration from the UK to EU countries has increased by about 30% compared to pre-Brexit numbers. 

Britons living in other EU countries who decided to obtain EU member state passports as well as their UK ones had increased by more than 500% overall, and by 2,000% in Germany.

The percentages look big. The numbers are not.

There are now about 1.2 million British citizens living in the EU, between 120,000 and 150,000 of which are in Germany.

Iirc there used to be about 1.5m brits in Europe, mainly France n Spain.

In 2019 UK had 60k/m net inflow from Europe.

Germany, Europes largest and most successful economy hosts 3 months of UKs EU migrants.  And that's 30 odd years worth.

In Germany, UK migrants were among the highest earners, bringing in on average €2,812 a month in 2019, just behind those from Austria and the US.

German  min wage is E1500/m

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On 21/07/2020 at 13:16, 14stFlyer said:

I guess the last five pages of this thread have shown that we have become very divided on the migration issue, with entrenched views on both sides.  I get the impression that both sides see their view as somehow “morally right” and I am not sure I can see why.  There are obviously different groups that benefit in different ways by the changes, but I cannot see how this makes one side intrinsically right and one wrong. 
 

Am I alone in finding the polarised nature of this thread (and views more generally on immigration and Brexit) quite scary?

This website is about the price and availability of housing, I would expect the debate to be around the increased intensity of bidding for housing that inevitably comes with immigration and the upwards pressure put on rents and prices.

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1 hour ago, Wayward said:

This website is about the price and availability of housing, I would expect the debate to be around the increased intensity of bidding for housing that inevitably comes with immigration and the upwards pressure put on rents and prices.

I find it scary that people refuse to even contemplate that immigration could put pressure on rents and prices.

I know people who have rented out rooms to immigrants and used the money to move up the ladder, without it they would have been stuck.  Or maybe their seller would have to take a lower offer.

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  • 2 weeks later...

EU settlement stats are starting to be noticed.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8623807/More-3-8million-EU-citizens-apply-stay-UK-Brexit-transition.html

March 2020:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/879569/eu-settlement-scheme-statistics-march-2020.pdf

The number of applications received in March 2020 was 125,000. Overall, the total number of applications received up to 31 March 2020 was more than 3.4 million (3,468,700).

 

April 2020

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/886174/eu-settlement-scheme-statistics-april-2020.pdf

The number of applications received in April 2020 was 67,300. Overall, the total number of applications received up to 30 April 2020 was more than 3.5 million (3,536,000)

. . .

July 2020:

https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/eu-settlement-scheme-statistics

overall, the total number of applications received up to 31 July 2020 was 3,805,200

overall, the total number of applications concluded up to 31 July 2020 was 3,592,800

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On 03/08/2020 at 11:50, iamnumerate said:

I have met people like that - and people on here - I can't remember who sorry.  There are people like that I am afraid.

The strawman is the rhetorical claim that people refuse to contemplate that possibility - which is not the same as people considering the situation and coming to a different conclusion to yourself.

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7 minutes ago, spyguy said:

That 400,000 Romanians live in the UK is a tragedy for their homeland

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/30/romanians-uk-tragedy-homeland-corruption-poverty

600k Romanians have applied to remain in the UK. Numbers still going up.

Source for the 600K (presumably not just your own ****?)

Only, the latest UK government figures are 427K. Latest dataset (2019) here:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/datasets/populationoftheunitedkingdombycountryofbirthandnationality

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7 minutes ago, byron78 said:

Source for the 600K (presumably not just your own ****?)

Only, the latest UK government figures are 427K. Latest dataset (2019) here:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/datasets/populationoftheunitedkingdombycountryofbirthandnationality

Go to the EU settlement site, listed above.

Go to the most recent where the applications are listed by country.

2019 is a long long time ago in EU FOM.

 

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I was about to reply,  this is the data set you want- table 4. another 200k of all nationalities added since end may so probably 630k or so now.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/893070/eu-settlement-scheme-statistics-may-2020.pdf

also Sadiq khan estimated  that only 60pc of romainians had bothered to register by January so the total could hit a 1M.

https://www.islingtongazette.co.uk/news/politics/sadiq-khan-calls-eu-settlement-scheme-a-failure-as-stats-show-only-60pc-of-people-have-registered-1-6401056

htf are you supposed to supply services to a population if you have no idea what the population actually is rank incompetence.

Edited by debtlessmanc
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On 03/08/2020 at 12:50, iamnumerate said:

I have met people like that - and people on here - I can't remember who sorry.  There are people like that I am afraid.

Yeah. Make a bogeyman out of immigrants and also people who claim immigrants don't impact anything.

That has never been the argument. The argument is that immigrants are a tiny factor of house price rises yet they receive the overwhelming attention.

That's just the way humans work. You are running on instinct and the only way to stop that is to consciously realise you're doing it and intercept those thoughts, challenging them.

Some people do, others vote brexit.

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I mean look at this website. It used to be a treasure of useful information, debate about financial policy, in depth discussion on the role of credit in monetary policy (with both sides of the argument), etc etc. That was about 10-15 years ago.

Now it is mostly just people blaming immigrants.

And those of us trying to tell you that you've been conned and you're part of the system.

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26 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

I mean look at this website. It used to be a treasure of useful information, debate about financial policy, in depth discussion on the role of credit in monetary policy (with both sides of the argument), etc etc. That was about 10-15 years ago.

Now it is mostly just people blaming immigrants.

And those of us trying to tell you that you've been conned and you're part of the system.

I had a very enlightening conversation with a very pro EU french guy recently about the influx of low skilled people into the uk from elsewhere in europe. his attitude was that it was because of the UK's low skill economy (so far true to some extent). However when i went on to ask why only 1-2% of recently appointed French civil servants were from other EU states as opposed to 16% in the UK. His reply was "Ah usual mistake to assume thart freedom of movement is a philiosophy, it is a tool for getting around europe for business or pleasure, in a country like France we train people with the right skills and do not need to employ other EU citizens for that kind of job". he said this with a completely straight face! it is an attitude i have met many times on the continent There is nothing fundamentally wrong with the EU it is mostly a force for positivity, just the UK and it are not really quite ready for each other...or as i pointed out elsewhere, our govt never actually used the rules that existed as it should anyway.

 

as to the subject of the forum, look build more houses, create more council properties and limit credit. Everyone more or less agrees on that. That is why a lot  of the threads are on more fringe issues like migration, or universities, or saudi arabia etc.

Edited by debtlessmanc
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1 hour ago, dugsbody said:

Yeah. Make a bogeyman out of immigrants and also people who claim immigrants don't impact anything.

That has never been the argument. The argument is that immigrants are a tiny factor of house price rises yet they receive the overwhelming attention.

That's just the way humans work. You are running on instinct and the only way to stop that is to consciously realise you're doing it and intercept those thoughts, challenging them.

Some people do, others vote brexit.

I think immigrantion receive attention because people disagree with it.  Ironically I used to work with lots of landlords and they all seemed to think immigration was good for them.

If there were people who disagreed that HTB has caused HPI we would have massive of threads on that.

(I do know places where prices have not risen since HTB - but I still think it has caused HPI in most of the country).

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Quite a small one this month, from 3.71 million applications as of 30th June 2020 to 3.81 million as of 31st July 2020, 100k in a month. 70k rejected or withdrawn so far so a maximum possible accepted settled status claims of about 3.75m.

https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/eu-settlement-scheme-statistics

https://web.archive.org/web/20200726132502/https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/eu-settlement-scheme-statistics

11 months of stats to go until the EU Settlement Scheme closes. For spyguy's 8-12m EUer estimate to be correct the monthly rate from now on is going to have to go up to 381k-745k per month, it's like a run chase in cricket where it's looking less and less likely as the required run rate soars.

Although having said that, we all know that when the official stats prove him wrong he will just start claiming there are 4-8m EU citizens living illegally in the UK even though they could have obtained legal status for free and with minimal bureaucratic process and there is a whole continent of first world countries they could go and live in entirely legally.

When the official number goes past 4m this autumn we will get to see spyguy and debtlessmanc's O faces, something to look forward to there.

Edited by Dorkins
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2 hours ago, dugsbody said:

Now it is mostly just people blaming immigrants

I am not sure it is as simple as this.  People like me are not blaming immigrants (in themselves) for anything. 
 

I recognise the loss of well educated young Eastern European’s causes problems for their country of origin. 
 

I recognise that their arrival and integration has caused problems in their destination countries, especially where they have taken on low skilled employment.  
 

I do not blame the “EU” for this issue. I recognise that this is dominantly a result of policies decided by governments in the origin and destination countries. 
 

However, I do not like the fact that people who recognise the problems caused by this, and have seen Brexit as a potential solution,  are somehow branded as having unacceptable views that they clearly do not hold. 

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7 hours ago, 14stFlyer said:

I am not sure it is as simple as this.  

There was nothing complicated or simple in my assertion. It is just a statement that this forum used to contain a lot more discussion into the nuances of credit, global finance markets etc and their relation to house prices.

Now it is mostly just people blaming immigrants (or if it helps you sleep better, "immigration").

I don't comment about their reasons for not wanting immigration in my post, I'm simply observing a trend on this site.

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9 hours ago, Dorkins said:

Quite a small one this month, from 3.71 million applications as of 30th June 2020 to 3.81 million as of 31st July 2020, 100k in a month. 70k rejected or withdrawn so far so a maximum possible accepted settled status claims of about 3.75m.

https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/eu-settlement-scheme-statistics

https://web.archive.org/web/20200726132502/https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/eu-settlement-scheme-statistics

11 months of stats to go until the EU Settlement Scheme closes. For spyguy's 8-12m EUer estimate to be correct the monthly rate from now on is going to have to go up to 381k-745k per month, it's like a run chase in cricket where it's looking less and less likely as the required run rate soars.

Although having said that, we all know that when the official stats prove him wrong he will just start claiming there are 4-8m EU citizens living illegally in the UK even though they could have obtained legal status for free and with minimal bureaucratic process and there is a whole continent of first world countries they could go and live in entirely legally.

When the official number goes past 4m this autumn we will get to see spyguy and debtlessmanc's O faces, something to look forward to there.

You make the mistake in assuming al EUers in the UK are proactive and above board.

They are not.

My direct exposure to the less 'active' EUers is via my wife, whos a teacher.  None of herEUers are doing well paying jobs. All are on th the highest help due to low income. None have applied for settlement - not that the school has seen hide or hair ofthem since March.

For every Man n Dad and kids theres a wide range of close and distant family members staying with them for quite long periods of time - Granny n Grandpa, various uncles n aunts etc etc.

Im with Sadiq Kahn. Id guess around 50% have not registered.

Thes no official stats on the number of Euers.

All we've had bandied around was '3m' which was a vague guess. Not too big to scare the horses, not to small to risk ridicule.

THE UK AND EU DONT HAVE A CLUE ON THE NUMBERS.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/10445585/Labour-made-a-spectacular-mistake-on-immigration-admits-Jack-Straw.html

Rather than scrap the migrant registration system Labour should have tripled it. copying the German system.

The registration rate wont pick up till the bulk of benefit dependent return from their very long summer holiday *AND* start hearing about the  consequences.

As far as the monthly registration figures. 100k is not a small figure. Thats a medium sized UK city. A month.

Not picking this for any other reason than it came up in my search.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/february2019

blah blah blah

Then

Long-term international migration data from the ONS are largely based on a survey. It is not possible to survey all people coming to and leaving the UK, so these statistics are estimates based on a sample, not precise figures. It is best to use all available data sources and review longer time series to assess migration trends.

Migration in a modern, developed world should not be stats guessing. Every migrant staying more than 1 month  should register with the authorities, just like the rest of the EU.

Each month that goes by, the '3m' figure, passed around during the Brexit vote  is left in dust and the numbers approach my wild OTT guesstimate.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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