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Mass changes to UK immigration requirements


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8 minutes ago, debtlessmanc said:

That worries me too. But tbh many have of them have mover here to get away from that kind of thing. We live in hope..

The impression i get is that they love multiculturalism but have been brainwashed to hate it and cannot square the circle.

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2 hours ago, debtlessmanc said:

Its not weird, it is just in keeping with other migrants to the uk, they accept the bits they like. Wealth, progressive culture etc but they deny any connection from that to relaxing of their own prejudices. Eg many middle eastern students i teach love the west but if you suggest that back home would benefit from a bit of liberalisation they have apoplexy.

When you understand Eastern European history including the 1000 year Ottoman Empire - which enslaved millions of white Europeans and black Africans - you then get an appreciation of why this particular dislike exists.

The Poles played a massive part in keeping Europe a mostly Christian contInent in 1683 and their general view is that they are keen to keep it that way.

It’s ingrained in their values, attitudes and culture because of what happened to the Polish people in the following centuries.

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6 minutes ago, MARTINX9 said:

When you understand Eastern European history including the 1000 year Ottoman Empire - which enslaved millions of white Europeans and black Africans - you then get an appreciation of why this particular dislike exists.

The Poles played a massive part in keeping Europe a mostly Christian contInent in 1683 and their general view is that they are keen to keep it that way.

It’s ingrained in their values, attitudes and culture because of what happened to the Polish people in the following centuries.

In our office we have a polish cleaner with a black african husband, they have 3 kids. they could never return to eastern europe bacause of the prejudice she tells me. The UK is really a great place from that point of view.

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46 minutes ago, MARTINX9 said:

When you understand Eastern European history including the 1000 year Ottoman Empire - which enslaved millions of white Europeans and black Africans - you then get an appreciation of why this particular dislike exists.

The Poles played a massive part in keeping Europe a mostly Christian contInent in 1683 and their general view is that they are keen to keep it that way.

It’s ingrained in their values, attitudes and culture because of what happened to the Polish people in the following centuries.

That would  go some way to explain why  the Poles i worked with hated Russia and Germany.

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10 hours ago, Dorkins said:

The EU+UK has a population of about 514m, not 750m.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_European_Union_member_states_by_population

What happened to your claim that the UK had received 80% of EU FOM? You seem to be down to 1/3rd now.

Spyguy and debtlessmanc pull up a chair at the grownups table and admit you were badly wrong on the immigration numbers challenge, over to you.

I think we should put the debate off til the numbers come in. 
 

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11 hours ago, Dorkins said:

The EU+UK has a population of about 514m, not 750m.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_European_Union_member_states_by_population

What happened to your claim that the UK had received 80% of EU FOM? You seem to be down to 1/3rd now.

Spyguy and debtlessmanc pull up a chair at the grownups table and admit you were badly wrong on the immigration numbers challenge, over to you.

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/europe-population/

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11 hours ago, Dorkins said:

The EU+UK has a population of about 514m, not 750m.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_European_Union_member_states_by_population

What happened to your claim that the UK had received 80% of EU FOM? You seem to be down to 1/3rd now.

Spyguy and debtlessmanc pull up a chair at the grownups table and admit you were badly iwrong on the immigration numbers challenge, over to you.

The official number, which are still nowhere near finished, are pointing to 30% more EUers in the UK - 4m v 3m.

A 30% error is massive.

When you look at the whos here - lots of families with kids and that they are low paid (Every single EUer,. not just EE, in Mrs spys school is on the max support as they earn f-all) the pitch that '3m EUers, paying tax' is a huge lie.

About a year after he brexit vote I was accosted by a 'Stay in Europe person', campaigning to Stay in the EU. I recognised him as one of the leading lights in the LibDems.

I had an 'childish' (as a lotof EUers are keen on calling people who doubt their genius) conversation.

I asked why he was campaigning now, after the vote. Surely it would have been better to campaign before the vote?  I know the LibDems like to think as themselves as a 'different type of Politics' but surely getting your shit together *before* the vote is going to help?

I then asked how much he thought the unelected LibDem peers blocking Osbournes tax credits reforms had contributed to a large number of EUers piling into the UK. Surely it would have been better to sort the UK benefits out so they didnt act as  massive draw for all the EUers?

Mrs spy then asked him a few questions,switching from French to German to Italian.

He did not comprehend me or Mrs Spy.

 

 

 

 

 

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10 hours ago, debtlessmanc said:

In our office we have a polish cleaner with a black african husband, they have 3 kids. they could never return to eastern europe bacause of the prejudice she tells me. The UK is really a great place from that point of view.

But would they move to Africa either?

All the EU couples we know, where the couple are from non adjacent countries, live in the UK.

One a connected note, and as a response to 'EU has brought peace to Europe', the radio are doing Srebenica 35th anniversary. For the innumerate, this was a massacre that happened in 1995, 50 years after WW2.

The report was a bit vague. mumble mumble .. until western powers intervened.

Lots of articles like this:

https://theconversation.com/srebrenica-25-years-later-lessons-from-the-massacre-that-ended-the-bosnian-conflict-and-unmasked-a-genocide-141177

The U.S. and UN could have supplied that force, but they dithered.

Vienna -> Sbrenica is about the same distance from as London to Newcastle.

No mention of EU.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, spyguy said:

But would they move to Africa either?

All the EU couples we know, where the couple are from non adjacent countries, live in the UK.

One a connected note, and as a response to 'EU has brought peace to Europe', the radio are doing Srebenica 35th anniversary. For the innumerate, this was a massacre that happened in 1995, 50 years after WW2.

The report was a bit vague. mumble mumble .. until western powers intervened.

Lots of articles like this:

https://theconversation.com/srebrenica-25-years-later-lessons-from-the-massacre-that-ended-the-bosnian-conflict-and-unmasked-a-genocide-141177

The U.S. and UN could have supplied that force, but they dithered.

Vienna -> Sbrenica is about the same distance from as London to Newcastle.

No mention of EU

 

the problem is that some western European countries have nothing to boast about

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/28/dutch-soldiers-let-300-muslims-die-in-bosnian-war-court-rules

interesting question whether an EU army would do any better. I would suggest that the average  Dutch person who enlists in the Dutch army probably thinks that the chances of being actually shot at  are pretty remote. When it suddenly became all too likely they bottled it.

Edited by debtlessmanc
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3 hours ago, spyguy said:

But would they move to Africa either?

All the EU couples we know, where the couple are from non adjacent countries, live in the UK.

 

Money...

Another observation it seems to be crag end British with much hotter foreign burds.

Edited by shlomo
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3 hours ago, spyguy said:

The official number, which are still nowhere near finished, are pointing to 30% more EUers in the UK - 4m v 3m.

A 30% error is massive.

Not true.

ONS estimate of EU immigrants in the UK in 2019 was 3.6-3.7m vs 3.2m with settled or pre-settled status as of April 2020. 

image.png.7e7e09bb3380d4f6ee5a1b24579af02b.png

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/ukpopulationbycountryofbirthandnationality/2019

 

image.png.4404ab3dea5e7026825df4d3d8eac598.png

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/886174/eu-settlement-scheme-statistics-april-2020.pdf

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13 minutes ago, slawek said:

The ONS Estimate includes 400k Eire citizens, they do not need settled status, so the latter number is already over the ONS estimate by 400k and there is a year to go

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4 hours ago, spyguy said:

The official number, which are still nowhere near finished, are pointing to 30% more EUers in the UK - 4m v 3m.

A 30% error is massive.

Not as big an error as 4m vs your 10m estimate. You've been claiming for years there were 5-9m more EU citizens in the UK than the official estimates, it's now looking like the ONS was more like 1-1.5m out. They were wrong but a lot closer to the right number than you.

Edited by Dorkins
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4 hours ago, spyguy said:

That's the continent of Europe, you said "Europe as in EU inc the UK" has a population of 750m:

On 10/07/2020 at 10:22, spyguy said:

Europe as in EU inc,. the UK, has a population of 750m.

This is factually wrong. There's a fair chunk of Europe outside the EU+UK i.e. Ukraine, Belarus, European Russia, European Turkey, some of the Caucasus.

Edited by Dorkins
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23 minutes ago, debtlessmanc said:

The ONS Estimate includes 400k Eire citizens, they do not need settled status, so the latter number is already over the ONS estimate by 400k and there is a year to go

The claim was

1) ONS estimates 3m EUs in the UK - wrong, acually 3.6-3.7m

2) the ONS estimate is 30% lower than EU settled status - wrong too even with an adjustment for Irish 

The ONS estimate doesn't include some people e.g students.

The settle status overestimates the EU population; a person can come to the UK, work for a short period, get a pre-settled status and leave.  

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20 minutes ago, slawek said:

The claim was

1) ONS estimates 3m EUs in the UK - wrong, acually 3.6-3.7m

2) the ONS estimate is 30% lower than EU settled status - wrong too even with an adjustment for Irish 

The ONS estimate doesn't include some people e.g students.

The settle status overestimates the EU population; a person can come to the UK, work for a short period, get a pre-settled status and leave.  

Go back to that webpage and look at table 2 (cannot be bothered to paste it here) you will see that the 3.7 million is the total born in Eu resident with At least one Eu State nationality, out of that 3.7 million 557k have also go uk nationality (they are dual citizens) this means that the ons estimate 3.059M people who could apply for settled status in 2019. 3.7M have applied up to now. So an underestimate of 700K. This will be complicated by the 300-400k odd of Eire citizens, some of will hold dual citizenship and some of of those will be born in Eire others in the U.K.

just had a look over at the irish govt figures

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-cp7md/p7md/p7dn/

only trivial small numbers of dual uk-irish nationals, so we can assume that the 3.069M ONS figure includes irish people., this would imply that in 2019 the UK govt would expect 2.7M people to apply for settled status, in practice we are at 3.7M and climbing.

Anyway i do not know why you or dugsbody are arguing, you would not care if it was 50M,. in fact the all better to diplace the evil natavists.

The only thing about the figure that bothers me is that were lied to about it, a bit of advice when a govt systematically lies to you about something, that things is worth looking into.

Edited by debtlessmanc
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1 hour ago, debtlessmanc said:

Go back to that webpage and look at table 2 (cannot be bothered to paste it here) you will see that the 3.7 million is the total born in Eu resident with At least one Eu State nationality, out of that 3.7 million 557k have also go uk nationality (they are dual citizens) this means that the ons estimate 3.059M people who could apply for settled status in 2019. 3.7M have applied up to now. So an underestimate of 700K. This will be complicated by the 300-400k odd of Eire citizens, some of will hold dual citizenship and some of of those will be born in Eire others in the U.K.

just had a look over at the irish govt figures

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-cp7md/p7md/p7dn/

only trivial small numbers of dual uk-irish nationals, so we can assume that the 3.069M ONS figure includes irish people., this would imply that in 2019 the UK govt would expect 2.7M people to apply for settled status, in practice we are at 3.7M and climbing.

Anyway i do not know why you or dugsbody are arguing, you would not care if it was 50M,. in fact the all better to diplace the evil natavists.

The only thing about the figure that bothers me is that were lied to about it, a bit of advice when a govt systematically lies to you about something, that things is worth looking into.

There are 450k EU born people who are British nationals (excluding Irish)  + 350k Irish

(see table 1.6 https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=%2fpeoplepopulationandcommunity%2fpopulationandmigration%2finternationalmigration%2fdatasets%2fpopulationoftheunitedkingdombycountryofbirthandnationality%2fjanuary2019todecember2019/populationbycountryofbirthandnationalityjan19todec1919052020143312.xls)

That gives 2.9m (3.7m - 0.45 m- 0.35m) ONS estimate + plus 200k who are not counted in ONS data like students and those who arrived recently. In total 3.1m.

From 3.7m who applied for the schema 3.4m are EU nationals.

(see Table 4 https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/893071/eu-settlement-scheme-statistics-may-2020.ods)

My guess is there are at least a few hundred who applied and left the UK or applied from abroad. Let's say that is 0.5m. This brings the 3.4m who applied to 2.9m who applied and live currently in the UK. 

So we have 

3.1m who live in the UK and need to apply (ONS data)

vs

2.9m who applied and live in the UK (the schema statistics)

Assuming

1) the applications will increase further by 0.5m

2)  the ONS estimate will increase by 100k due to new arrivals

that will give 3.2m ONS vs 3.4m the schema applications,  only 200k (6% ) difference at the end

 

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1 hour ago, slawek said:

There are 450k EU born people who are British nationals (excluding Irish)  + 350k Irish

(see table 1.6 https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=%2fpeoplepopulationandcommunity%2fpopulationandmigration%2finternationalmigration%2fdatasets%2fpopulationoftheunitedkingdombycountryofbirthandnationality%2fjanuary2019todecember2019/populationbycountryofbirthandnationalityjan19todec1919052020143312.xls)

That gives 2.9m (3.7m - 0.45 m- 0.35m) ONS estimate + plus 200k who are not counted in ONS data like students and those who arrived recently. In total 3.1m.

From 3.7m who applied for the schema 3.4m are EU nationals.

(see Table 4 https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/893071/eu-settlement-scheme-statistics-may-2020.ods)

My guess is there are at least a few hundred who applied and left the UK or applied from abroad. Let's say that is 0.5m. This brings the 3.4m who applied to 2.9m who applied and live currently in the UK. 

So we have 

3.1m who live in the UK and need to apply (ONS data)

vs

2.9m who applied and live in the UK (the schema statistics)

Assuming

1) the applications will increase further by 0.5m

2)  the ONS estimate will increase by 100k due to new arrivals

that will give 3.2m ONS vs 3.4m the schema applications,  only 200k (6% ) difference at the end

 

your guesses trump govt statics eh?

anyway a substantial nos of EU passport holders in the UK were not born in the EU. 141,000 in 2013 and there are probably several time that now

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/jan/28/british-dream-europe-african-citizens

 

 

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5 hours ago, debtlessmanc said:

your guesses trump govt statics eh?

anyway a substantial nos of EU passport holders in the UK were not born in the EU. 141,000 in 2013 and there are probably several time that now

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/jan/28/british-dream-europe-african-citizens

 

 

The only guess is a number of people who have got a settled status and left or applied from abroad. The rest is just various official statistics. The guess is partially based on the fact that around 150k EU nationals leave the UK every year. 

As for a difference between people born in the EU vs people having EU nationality is still around 100k in 2019 (see below 3.6m vs 3.7m).

The point is you can reconcile both numbers, the schema and ONS population statistics, within around 10% so there is no evidence the government EU migration statistics are materially incorrect.    

image.png.7e7e09bb3380d4f6ee5a1b24579af02b.png

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51 minutes ago, slawek said:

The only guess is a number of people who have got a settled status and left or applied from abroad. The rest is just various official statistics. The guess is partially based on the fact that around 150k EU nationals leave the UK every year. 

As for a difference between people born in the EU vs people having EU nationality is still around 100k in 2019 (see below 3.6m vs 3.7m).

The point is you can reconcile both numbers, the schema and ONS population statistics, within around 10% so there is no evidence the government EU migration statistics are materially incorrect.    

image.png.7e7e09bb3380d4f6ee5a1b24579af02b.png

Sorry you are wilfully not understanding the 2019 figure here of 3.7M people resident in the U.K. who hold an EU 27 passport includes (from table 2) 559k who hold also hold uk citizenship.Stop getting hung up on guesses and data from somewhere else, you brought up these figures and we are discussing them,. Those people with uk passports and Eire citizens who are allowed to work under a preexisting agreement were never going to apply for settled status- they do not need it. Therefore that 3.7m in the table above translates to around 2.7M (absolute maximum) that the ons would have predict applying In 2019 On the basis of these figures. In practice 3.7M have applied.

Edited by debtlessmanc
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33 minutes ago, debtlessmanc said:

Sorry you are wilfully not understanding the 2019 figure here of 3.7M people resident in the U.K. who hold an EU 27 passport includes (from table 2) 559k who hold also hold uk citizenship.Stop getting hung up on guesses and data from somewhere else, you brought up these figures and we are discussing them,. Those people with uk passports and Eire citizens who are allowed to work under a preexisting agreement were never going to apply for settled status- they do not need it. Therefore that 3.7m in the table above translates to around 2.7M (absolute maximum) that the ons would have predict applying In 2019 On the basis of these figures. In practice 3.7M have applied.

I guess you misunderstood me.

My comment

"As for a difference between people born in the EU vs people having EU nationality is still around 100k in 2019 (see below 3.6m vs 3.7m)."

was a response to your speculation 

"anyway a substantial nos of EU passport holders in the UK were not born in the EU. 141,000 in 2013 and there are probably several time that now"

I have adjusted for double citizenship and Irish in my earlier reconciliation. 

"There are 450k EU born people who are British nationals (excluding Irish)  + 350k Irish. That gives 2.9m (3.7m - 0.45 m- 0.35m) ONS estimate + plus 200k who are not counted in ONS data like students and those who arrived recently. In total 3.1m."

Edited by slawek
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So ... Polish FOM  migration  plays a significant part in causing Brexit.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53385021

Now it undermines the evolution of Polish democracy.

The news had a Polish woman on, saying 'Young Polish, leave, there is no future for you here'. Ignoring the fact that this was caused by several million under 50s leaving in the fist place.

Only positive for Poland is that the Balkans are even worse.

 

 

 

 

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