Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Mass changes to UK immigration requirements


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

  • 3 weeks later...

More of the same, using the recent raw numbers.

Tarted up with a chart and some various handwringing.

EU settled status applicants exceed official tally

Campaigners fear European nationals eligible to stay in Britain after Brexit could slip through net

https://www.ft.com/content/a611c7ae-8276-4e42-8e63-0b68e3b90f9f


The number of EU migrants who have applied for the right to stay in the UK after Brexit exceeds official estimates of the Europeans who are eligible to remain, raising further questions over the effectiveness of the government’s controversial settled status scheme.

Figures released last month revealed that at the end of May there had been 3.6m applications to the EU settled status scheme, more than the 3.4m official estimate of how many EU citizens are living in the UK produced by the Office for National Statistics.

The mismatch is echoed by a Financial Times survey of EU embassies, whose estimates of their citizens in the UK indicate that the British government has underestimated its EU-born population by more than 500,000.

The confusion over the real number of EU citizens living in the UK makes it almost impossible to assess how many eligible people will have failed to secure settled status in Britain by the time the process closes on June 30 2021, experts and campaigners warn.

 

Maybe if those campaigners had campaigned to get a robust registration in place the UK would not have voted Brexit.

 

49d1fa80-bfc2-11ea-8f08-2b1c8f3eb106-sta

 

Going by how many fo mrs spys EU parents have registered - none that she knows of - the total will be easily 6m.

Top rated comment:

 

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I suspect if the U.K. had chosen to enforce EU rules on freedom of labour movement as strictly as France and Germany do - registration with town halls, enrolment with a medical insurance scheme, etc - we probably wouldn’t got a Brexit vote in the first place. 

But Labour didn’t want to talk migration; the Tories want to keep talking about it but never accepted that taking back control require paying the Border Force a bit more. 

Just look at the confidence intervals above: those alone feel like an embarrassment to me. 

And another

I noticed early on when arriving in this country that it has no clue or control whatsoever about who is here and for how long. 

A bohemian Swiss friend of mine managed to come here, work for a week in a shop to get a NINO and then work here in the adult industry without paying tax and then get pregnant and live here for 5 years whilst getting full child and housing benefits. That kind of generosity by Britain's tax payers has nothing to do with EU law as the latter states that EU free movement only applies when you have either a legal job or enough means to sustain yourself and any benefits can be withheld for up to 3 months. Try the above in Germany or Austria and you get kicked out faster than you can say "auf Wiedersehen".

Im pro immigration so I'm not overly concerned by this but if I wanted to control immigration I'd rather try to sort out the mess that is our system of immigration control rather than wrecking the economy by leaving the EU. Because we can make as many theoretical laws and leave as many treaties we want, with officials being practically blind I don't see how the UK will ever be in a position to actively control immigration. A first step would be to have a population registry as pretty much every continental EU country has it.

 

If only Labour had had a gown up discussion on how a non time limited non contribution based, lucrative benefit system (tax credits) would cause problems for the UK.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 18/06/2020 at 14:34, debtlessmanc said:

latest release from the home office still a year to go and 3.6M have applied for settled status, with the 400k Eire citizens this is comfortably over 4M, many will leave it to June next year to get the 5 year residency in, I think it will actually hit 5-6M, double what the govt estimated before Brexit,

In March this year you were predicting 5m by July, sounds like you've now pushed the timeline for that number to be reached back to the end of the scheme:

On 19/03/2020 at 20:27, debtlessmanc said:

okay by February 3.34 Million applications to remain in britain, 300k added last month, i would guess heading for 5M by July.

It also looks like you've dropped your estimate of the final number from at least 6m (3m previous ONS plus "at least 3M more") to "5-6m":

On 23/03/2020 at 14:41, debtlessmanc said:

it is clearly going to turn out that the population of the UK is at lest 3M more than the govt claims

 

Edited by Dorkins
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

In March this year you were predicting 5m by July, sounds like you've now pushed the timeline for that number to be reached back to the end of the scheme:

It also looks like you've dropped your estimate of the final number from at least 6m (3m previous ONS plus "at least 3M more") to "5-6m":

 

July 2021 is the deadline (which i was referring too) for registering. many will de waiting to get the 5 years in by then,.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, spyguy said:

More of the same, using the recent raw numbers.

Tarted up with a chart and some various handwringing.

EU settled status applicants exceed official tally

Campaigners fear European nationals eligible to stay in Britain after Brexit could slip through net

https://www.ft.com/content/a611c7ae-8276-4e42-8e63-0b68e3b90f9f


The number of EU migrants who have applied for the right to stay in the UK after Brexit exceeds official estimates of the Europeans who are eligible to remain, raising further questions over the effectiveness of the government’s controversial settled status scheme.

Figures released last month revealed that at the end of May there had been 3.6m applications to the EU settled status scheme, more than the 3.4m official estimate of how many EU citizens are living in the UK produced by the Office for National Statistics.

The mismatch is echoed by a Financial Times survey of EU embassies, whose estimates of their citizens in the UK indicate that the British government has underestimated its EU-born population by more than 500,000.

The confusion over the real number of EU citizens living in the UK makes it almost impossible to assess how many eligible people will have failed to secure settled status in Britain by the time the process closes on June 30 2021, experts and campaigners warn.

 

Maybe if those campaigners had campaigned to get a robust registration in place the UK would not have voted Brexit.

 

49d1fa80-bfc2-11ea-8f08-2b1c8f3eb106-sta

 

Going by how many fo mrs spys EU parents have registered - none that she knows of - the total will be easily 6m.

Top rated comment:

 

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I suspect if the U.K. had chosen to enforce EU rules on freedom of labour movement as strictly as France and Germany do - registration with town halls, enrolment with a medical insurance scheme, etc - we probably wouldn’t got a Brexit vote in the first place. 

But Labour didn’t want to talk migration; the Tories want to keep talking about it but never accepted that taking back control require paying the Border Force a bit more. 

Just look at the confidence intervals above: those alone feel like an embarrassment to me. 

And another

I noticed early on when arriving in this country that it has no clue or control whatsoever about who is here and for how long. 

A bohemian Swiss friend of mine managed to come here, work for a week in a shop to get a NINO and then work here in the adult industry without paying tax and then get pregnant and live here for 5 years whilst getting full child and housing benefits. That kind of generosity by Britain's tax payers has nothing to do with EU law as the latter states that EU free movement only applies when you have either a legal job or enough means to sustain yourself and any benefits can be withheld for up to 3 months. Try the above in Germany or Austria and you get kicked out faster than you can say "auf Wiedersehen".

Im pro immigration so I'm not overly concerned by this but if I wanted to control immigration I'd rather try to sort out the mess that is our system of immigration control rather than wrecking the economy by leaving the EU. Because we can make as many theoretical laws and leave as many treaties we want, with officials being practically blind I don't see how the UK will ever be in a position to actively control immigration. A first step would be to have a population registry as pretty much every continental EU country has it.

 

If only Labour had had a gown up discussion on how a non time limited non contribution based, lucrative benefit system (tax credits) would cause problems for the UK.

 

 

Many if the EUphiles i know and work with view any kind question about how many EU born people live in the UK as intrincally racist or xenophobic. Even attempting to make an argument that all the other EU states manage their services using local population registries is viewed as a round about way of suggesting foreigners are unwelcome. It has been, as the comment you highlight above says, a very very divisive issue in the UK. As i keep on pointing out, i am not a leaver, i just think that the country should be run properly wrt providing services for the population and monitoring it. The anglo-saxon countries are very very liberal about this one thing, not having to identify yourself to a policeman or to traditionally to work. People who live here and have no experience of continental bureacracy seem to think that the countries are the same on this.

Edited by debtlessmanc
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, debtlessmanc said:

July 2021 is the deadline (which i was referring too) for registering. many will de waiting to get the 5 years in by then,.

I don't believe you were referring to July 2021 in a post made in March 2020 which referred to the month of your prediction simply as July. It looks like you have decided to follow spyguy down the dishonesty route, which is a shame.

By the way, the deadline is June 2021.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

I don't believe you were referring to July 2021 in a post made in March 2020 which referred to the month of your prediction simply as July. It looks like you have decided to follow spyguy down the dishonesty route, which is a shame.

By the way, the deadline is June 2021.

i understood July to be the deadline, it was my mistake. it is as you say 30th of June 2021 (or anytime before July 2021). one would not expect a true figure before then would one? i was making an honest estimate on the wrong timescale.

Edited by debtlessmanc
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, debtlessmanc said:

i understood July to be the deadline, it was my mistake. it is as you say 30th of June 2021 (or anytime before July 2021). one would not expect a true figure before then would one? i was making an honest estimate on the wrong timescale.

Your previous estimate was an honest one, the lie is what you are doing now by pretending it was to a timeline it wasn't.

Let's break down the text of your prediction: "by February 3.34 Million applications to remain in britain, 300k added last month, i would guess heading for 5M by July". February to July is 5 months, assume the 300k per month continued (it didn't), 5*300k + 3.34m = 4.84m so almost 5m. It is clear you were predicting 5m by July 2020.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Dorkins said:

Your previous estimate was an honest one, the lie is what you are doing now by pretending it was to a timeline it wasn't.

Let's break down the text of your prediction: "by February 3.34 Million applications to remain in britain, 300k added last month, i would guess heading for 5M by July". February to July is 5 months, assume the 300k per month continued (it didn't), 5*300k + 3.34m = 4.84m so almost 5m. It is clear you were predicting 5m by July 2020.

I was estimating a final total based on the issuing of NI numbers. This total will not be realised until people have to register in order to remain. Anyway CV-19 has rather intervened in the registration rate.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, debtlessmanc said:

i understood July to be the deadline, it was my mistake. it is as you say 30th of June 2021 (or anytime before July 2021). one would not expect a true figure before then would one? i was making an honest estimate on the wrong timescale.

Afaict the numbers registering are still rising - allowing for covid n all.

The numbers of EE in the UK is sort of understandable.

With hindsight, the EE countries should never had been allowed to join so soon. The Balkans esp so.

I think the EU has now baked in high levels of corruption and gangsterism in Romania and Bulgaria. I just dont see these countries escaping the current high levels of corruption.

The shocking thing is the high number of Spanish and Italians in the UK. This is very recent- after the 2010. As far as I can tell, both countries should be regarded as failed states as far as the under 45s are concerned.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, debtlessmanc said:

I was estimating a final total based on the issuing of NI numbers.

No you were not, you were estimating July 2020's EU Settlement Scheme figure. I am surprised to see such brazen intellectual dishonesty from an experienced STEM academic. It is not too late to climb down and admit that your previous estimate was likely wrong (we won't actually know until the July 2020 figures are released in August 2020).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, debtlessmanc said:

Many if the EUphiles i know and work with view any kind question about how many EU born people live in the UK as intrincally racist or xenophobic. Even attempting to make an argument that all the other EU states manage their services using local population registries is viewed as a round about way of suggesting foreigners are unwelcome. It has been, as the comment you highlight above says, a very very divisive issue in the UK. As i keep on pointing out, i am not a leaver, i just think that the country should be run properly wrt providing services for the population and monitoring it. The anglo-saxon countries are very very liberal about this one thing, not having to identify yourself to a policeman or to traditionally to work. People who live here and have no experience of continental bureacracy seem to think that the countries are the same on this.

Very true.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, spyguy said:

Afaict the numbers registering are still rising - allowing for covid n all.

The numbers of EE in the UK is sort of understandable.

With hindsight, the EE countries should never had been allowed to join so soon. The Balkans esp so.

I think the EU has now baked in high levels of corruption and gangsterism in Romania and Bulgaria. I just dont see these countries escaping the current high levels of corruption.

The shocking thing is the high number of Spanish and Italians in the UK. This is very recent- after the 2010. As far as I can tell, both countries should be regarded as failed states as far as the under 45s are concerned.

Tbis article suggest that, in london In december at least, only 60% of EU migrants had bothered to register

https://www.islingtongazette.co.uk/news/politics/sadiq-khan-calls-eu-settlement-scheme-a-failure-as-stats-show-only-60pc-of-people-have-registered-1-6401056

Edited by debtlessmanc
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, debtlessmanc said:

Tbis article suggest that, in london In december at least, only 40% of EU migrants had bothered to register

https://www.islingtongazette.co.uk/news/politics/sadiq-khan-calls-eu-settlement-scheme-a-failure-as-stats-show-only-60pc-of-people-have-registered-1-6401056

I'd guess something around that. 

The Italians we know are still registered back home. Italy does not care. And they know how much of a ball ache it would be leave then to try and re-enter. They are happy with the uncertain status quo rather than the certain hell of dealing with the Italian government.

The EEers Mrs Spy has asked just look at her with a bewildered expression. Unless the paperwork is in whatever language then Id doubt most would be able to follow the English.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

An old and new article.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/uk/thousands-of-goans-to-lose-jobs-as-honda-shuts-shop-in-swindon/articleshow/68070185.cms

Apparently ~5000 Goans working for Hinda around Swindon.

Sorry, I mean Portuguese.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12004235/how-leicester-sweat-shops-are-still-full-of-workers-earning-2-50-per-hour-despite-lockdown/

The same shop owner said most of the factory workers are from the Daman and Goa areas of India where they are able to get Portuguese passports that allow them free access to the UK.

Then you have all the 'Swedish' and 'Dutch' Somalis.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, Dorkins said:

I don't believe you were referring to July 2021 in a post made in March 2020 which referred to the month of your prediction simply as July. It looks like you have decided to follow spyguy down the dishonesty route, which is a shame.

By the way, the deadline is June 2021.

I'm not being dishonest.

I'm trying to estimate the number of EUs living and accessing public services in the UK. Something the UK politicians, civil service and media have been refusing to question despite the obvious number of EUers in front of them, repeating the massive lie of  '3m EUers working in the UK'.

That was true, up til tax credits and EE ascension. It's been an outright lie since 2004ish.

At the moment, the closest thing to an official count is pointing to 5m,  3.6m + EU 500k finger in the air.

Not 3m. And a large number are on benefits, with family dependent using the free at point of use UK public services.

Now some EU countries I.e the ones at the top of that FT chart dont know or dont care where there citizens are. Mainly EE but also Italy and Spain, whove swept their failed under 45s economy under the UK economy and benefit system rug.

Covid has messed the count up. I still reckon when the UK gets close to a count itll show somewhere between 7m - 9m.

Some remainers - and im one - bang on about boris n Brexit lies. Nothing comes close to the '3m EUers working'

 

 

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, Locke said:

Abolish all benefits and then I don't care who comes to work here or just sit around wasting their own time and saved capital.

That is a minority perspective, most people don’t want the UK to become Somalia

Link to comment
Share on other sites

32 minutes ago, Locke said:

Abolish all benefits and then I don't care who comes to work here or just sit around wasting their own time and saved capital.

Well thats the thing.

You either have a system like the US with very limited benefits and high immigration, at least til Trump.

Or a system like Canada where you tightly control immigration using money and earnings and kills and age.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.




×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.