Mass changes to UK immigration requirements

[Dorkins]

30 minutes ago, maffo in oxford said:

I had nine Poles with the same NI number some years back, this was on a building site in Oxford. All dry liners, one pocketed the main bulk and paid the rest cash in hand. That's why Slawek's stats are bogus.

Sounds extremely tax inefficient given that tax rates increase with income.

[maffo in oxford]

4 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

Sounds extremely tax inefficient given that tax rates increase with income.

It's not when you charge £200 per man, per day and only pay them £50-75 cih because they aren't even qualified or probably not even supposed to be working in the UK.

Edited February 24, 2020 by maffo in oxford

[Dorkins]

9 hours ago, spyguy said:

Cash transfer from uk bennies will be unlikely to show up on any record.

Look for new build houses.

 

Classic spyguy, when the data are against you just say "oh there is no data but I'm definitely right".

[Dorkins]

7 minutes ago, maffo in oxford said:

It's not when you charge £200 per man, per day and only pay them £50 cih.

This is the business model of basically every management consultant agency.

Of course, cash in hand work in the building trade was unheard of before EU enlargement in 2004 and with Brexit it will disappear.

Edited February 24, 2020 by Dorkins

[spyguy]

1 hour ago, Dorkins said:

Classic spyguy, when the data are against you just say "oh there is no data but I'm definitely right".

Theres some data but its inaccurate.

Going back to the start of this thread, Im interested in watching the tally of EUer applying for the settlement scheme.

The '3m Europeans living in the UK' has officially been shown to be a load of BS, as the number heads rapidly towards 4m. 

 

 

[Andy T]

14 hours ago, dances with sheeple said:

You don`t really think the average person going to "Uni" is capable of entering these highly skilled fields do you? To get into Uni the academic bar should be set so that only those with real academic ability get there, the rest can fill the immigrant jobs and take night classes.

That was exactly my point,  'Uni' has been devalued since it became monetised, colleges & polytechnics suddenly became  ' [entersmalltownnamehere] University '  charging Uni fees to college level kids doing college level courses. 

The 'Highly skilled/technical' fields should require a blend a different skill levels  - from academic, to Engineer/Scientist,  technician level and many in between, particularly where a physical end product or installation is involved. Getting kids interested in these subjects at school is crucial, then having the right setup of colleges and companies investing in proper training schemes/apprenticeships for different skill sets/academic levels to produce the right people.

[Dorkins]

1 hour ago, spyguy said:

Theres some data but its inaccurate.

Going back to the start of this thread, Im interested in watching the tally of EUer applying for the settlement scheme.

The '3m Europeans living in the UK' has officially been shown to be a load of BS, as the number heads rapidly towards 4m. 

 

 

Latest statistical release here: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/865367/eu-settlement-scheme-statistics-january-2020.pdf

So far 3.1m applications received. The reporting period covers January 2020 so presumably there would have been a spike due to the UK leaving the EU at the end of that month.

Still no sign of any data supporting your claim earlier on the thread that the official statistics are 2-3-fold underestimating the number of EU citizens living in the UK.

Edited February 24, 2020 by Dorkins

[spyguy]

21 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

Latest statistical release here: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/865367/eu-settlement-scheme-statistics-january-2020.pdf

So far 3.1m applications received. The reporting period covers January 2020 so presumably there would have been a spike due to the UK leaving the EU at the end of that month.

Still no sign of any data supporting your claim earlier on the thread that the official statistics are 2-3-fold underestimating the number of EU citizens living in the UK.

Well ...

They reckon theyve got 80% of the UErs, so they are workign with a ball park figure of 3.6m:

https://www.ft.com/content/6e6a7da4-48e9-11ea-aee2-9ddbdc86190d

The figure, announced by the Home Office on Thursday, was reached less than a year after the scheme launched in March last year, and means that more than 80 per cent of the estimated 3.6m EU citizens currently in the UK have applied to stay. 

That 3.6m is 20% higher than the 3m figure UKGOV types have been using.

 

Of the EUers in mrsspys school year group  - ~15% of kids - not a single one has applied.

The Jan 2020 figures probably dont reflect the urgency that the GE19 win will have caused - most of mrs spys EE had already gone on Xmas holiday, going early for the cheaper flights wren the GE occurred Dec 12th

Since then, the UK has actually left the EU - 31st Jan 20

And then last weeks migration earnings limits.

I am watching he EU settlement application numbers.

Finally, these will give the UK a much better idea of how many EUers are in the UK.

I might be wrong. I might be right.

The 3m figure, bandied around, was very wrong.

We'll see.

 

 

 

 

[iamnumerate]

5 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

Latest statistical release here: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/865367/eu-settlement-scheme-statistics-january-2020.pdf

So far 3.1m applications received. The reporting period covers January 2020 so presumably there would have been a spike due to the UK leaving the EU at the end of that month.

Some Europeans would have got British citizenship so we do have more than 3 million Europeans living here.

[Dorkins]

Just now, iamnumerate said:

Some Europeans would have got British citizenship so we do have more than 3 million Europeans living here.

British citizens are British citizens, not foreigners.

[Dorkins]

3 minutes ago, spyguy said:

The 3m figure, bandied around, was very wrong.

So far the 3m estimate doesn't seem to have been very wrong. No sign of the additional 5-7 million EUers you have been claiming for years are in the UK. I am guessing that when the final settlement scheme number is in you will switch back to claiming they are invisible couchsurfers, grandparents staying with kids etc.

[iamnumerate]

2 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

British citizens are British citizens, not foreigners.

Yes of course they are.  However if x people migrate here and become citizens - it does not mean for the purposes of the debate on how immigration affects the UK (positively or negatively) we just ignore them being immigrants.

I am pretty sure if an EU immigrant with a UK passport found a cure for cancer - the pro EU press would point out that he was an EU immigrant, aren't you?

[spyguy]

2 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

So far the 3m estimate doesn't seem to have been very wrong. No sign of the additional 5-7 million EUers you have been claiming for years are in the UK. I am guessing that when the final settlement scheme number is in you will switch back to claiming they are invisible couchsurfers, grandparents staying with kids etc.

Id accept a 10%-/+ error.

To make the pitch of EUers in the UK as 3m up to and including GE2019.

Then suddenly come out with 3.6m estimates in Jan 2020 stinks.

Even the EU lobby group is using 3m:

https://www.the3million.org.uk/

Why not use the4million.org.uk?

Well, other than that extra million will cause a lot of problems.

 

The ONS came out and said their numbers for EU migrants are shit:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49420730

This was in 2019. 

UKGOV - and the EU -were avoiding even coming up with rough figures beyond 3m.

There has been deliberate neglect by both UKGOV and EU on the true number of  EUers in the UK. And contuntion of the 'they pay more tax then they use' Its BS. The UK is hosting many low earning EU fmailies, with kids in schools, where the cost to UKGOV is a few 10k/year.

Again, Im watchign the EU settlement numbers.

 

 

 

 

[Dorkins]

7 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Id accept a 10%-/+ error.

To make the pitch of EUers in the UK as 3m up to and including GE2019.

Then suddenly come out with 3.6m estimates in Jan 2020 stinks.

Even the EU lobby group is using 3m:

https://www.the3million.org.uk/

Why not use the4million.org.uk?

Well, other than that extra million will cause a lot of problems.

 

The ONS came out and said their numbers for EU migrants are shit:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49420730

This was in 2019. 

UKGOV - and the EU -were avoiding even coming up with rough figures beyond 3m.

There has been deliberate neglect by both UKGOV and EU on the true number of  EUers in the UK. And contuntion of the 'they pay more tax then they use' Its BS. The UK is hosting many low earning EU fmailies, with kids in schools, where the cost to UKGOV is a few 10k/year.

Again, Im watchign the EU settlement numbers.

Seems like you have abandoned your extra 5-7 million EUers over the official estimate claim and are now quibbling about hundreds of thousands.

[spyguy]

1 minute ago, Dorkins said:

Seems like you have abandoned your extra 5-7 million EUers over the official estimate claim and are now quibbling about hundreds of thousands.

No.

I reckon the number of EUers in the UK is around ~7m-8m.

All my guesttimate.

I reckon the settle scheme will bust 5m by end of summer.

 

[Wayward]

BBC 'Housing briefing' all over their news website today claims the 'housing gap' is approximately 1.2m homes.  Wouldn't it be great if there was plentiful housing and owners and landlords were bidding against each other to sell or let...driving down prices and rents.  It is clear they are not going to build the houses needed in any reasonable timescale, if ever.  How else might this gap be closed I wonder or is the policy to maintain perpetual scarcity.

[winkie]

Immigration or no immigration.......there will be those that will never own and those that will own more than they will actually need to live comfortably......some will serve, others will require servants.?

[zugzwang]

33 minutes ago, Wayward said:

BBC 'Housing briefing' all over their news website today claims the 'housing gap' is approximately 1.2m homes.  Wouldn't it be great if there was plentiful housing and owners and landlords were bidding against each other to sell or let...driving down prices and rents.  It is clear they are not going to build the houses needed in any reasonable timescale, if ever.  How else might this gap be closed I wonder or is the policy to maintain perpetual scarcity.

Surely, the decision to extend Help to Buy mortgages from 25 to 35 years last August is all the evidence you need of this govt's hpi++ forever intentions?

[Wayward]

3 hours ago, zugzwang said:

Surely, the decision to extend Help to Buy mortgages from 25 to 35 years last August is all the evidence you need of this govt's hpi++ forever intentions?

Yes a cynical move only intended to increase price of new builds.  It does however suck some demand out of the market for existing stock, the market that I watch, I wouldn't touch new build.

[Wayward]

Whilst on the subject of new builds in context of an immigration thread I believe there are housing markets around the world where non nationals can only buy new builds.

[PropertyMania]

On 24/02/2020 at 14:27, zugzwang said:

Surely, the decision to extend Help to Buy mortgages from 25 to 35 years last August is all the evidence you need of this govt's hpi++ forever intentions?

Just looked this up. Government's official release says they have "closed a loophole". Wtf, do they even know what a loophole is?

Quote

Homeowners buying a property under Help to Buy will be given new freedoms which will make it easier to take out a 35-year mortgage.

The government has moved to close a loophole which has seen purchasers using the Help to Buy scheme facing difficulties and uncertainty if they wanted to take out a mortgage with a term of more than 25 years.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/help-to-buy-loophole-closed-to-benefit-homeowners

 

 

 

[debtlessmanc]

I must admit the statistics make interesting reading - check out he first two graphs here

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/home-affairs/immigration/the-progress-of-the-eu-settlement-scheme-so-far/

first graph an apparent expontentially increase in applications  upto now

second graph shows that 155% of the number of bulgarians estimated to live in the uk have applied as of February! in fact over 100% of estimated UK population of Bulgarians, Romanians, Hungarians, Portuguese, Spanish, Italians, Austrians and Cypriots have already applied.

 

 

Edited February 27, 2020 by debtlessmanc

[spyguy]

3 hours ago, debtlessmanc said:

I must admit the statistics make interesting reading - check out he first two graphs here

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/home-affairs/immigration/the-progress-of-the-eu-settlement-scheme-so-far/

first graph an apparent expontentially increase in applications  upto now

second graph shows that 155% of the number of bulgarians estimated to live in the uk have applied as of February! in fact over 100% of estimated UK population of Bulgarians, Romanians, Hungarians, Portuguese, Spanish, Italians, Austrians and Cypriots have already applied.

 

 

As earlier - none of mrsspys year group of EUers - Spanish, Portuguese, misc EE - have applied.

In total, thats ~30 heads - mam, dad, 2 or 3 kids x 5.

Its only since GE19 results, followed by the UK leaving, then the new UK migrant rules that a very dim lightbulb has been lit.

Id guess these figures are post GE19.

I eagerly await updates.

 

[spyguy]

On 23/02/2020 at 19:45, zugzwang said:

The point is that most Poles are winning not whining. Support for the EU is higher in Poland than almost anywhere in Europe.

 

Bit of a disconnect there.

Poles may say they support EU but they are voting for very anti EU parties.

 

[debtlessmanc]

18 minutes ago, spyguy said:

As earlier - none of mrsspys year group of EUers - Spanish, Portuguese, misc EE - have applied.

In total, thats ~30 heads - mam, dad, 2 or 3 kids x 5.

Its only since GE19 results, followed by the UK leaving, then the new UK migrant rules that a very dim lightbulb has been lit.

Id guess these figures are post GE19.

I eagerly await updates.

 

Friends wife is French, she contributes to a blog for french people looking to move to uk, work/accommodation etc. He tells me she is overwhelmed by inquiries still with no fall off in sight.