Mass changes to UK immigration requirements

[debtlessmanc]

1 hour ago, spacedin said:

In the case of Romance languages it really does pay dividends learning one as it opens up the others. Not to blow my own trumpet but I'm semi-fluent in Spanish and can understand written Portuguese, French and Italian to some degree, especially Portuguese..

I also have a working knowledge of German, Swedish, Norwegian, Danish and Dutch and can understand why they are so good at learning English. We obviously share Germanic roots and some of the sentences make total sense to an English speaker, especially in Dutch (Friesian especially). After learning Swedish I couldn't quite believe how much easier Dutch was. I'm convinced most kids here could easily become fluent at say Dutch or German if they were taught properly from primary school.

I would argue the Romance languages are also more mutually intelligible, which again puts us at a disadvantage.

French is pretty different to be honest, there is a lot more commonality between spanish, italian and romanian than any of them and French. When i started working in France with rudimentary English at the same time as a romanian girl in the same situation, i was definitely up to speed more quickly (even the french agreed) could be down to me having a facility in language i suppose, as a scientist i only ever saw it as a means to an end.

there are other forces at work, there is still quite a lot of bad feeling over the french/dutch issue in the low countries. I found personally that people on the trains etc would open conversations in English rather than risk being ignored.

Edited February 21, 2020 by debtlessmanc

[MARTINX9]

On 21/02/2020 at 14:21, spacedin said:

In the case of Romance languages it really does pay dividends learning one as it opens up the others. Not to blow my own trumpet but I'm semi-fluent in Spanish and can understand written Portuguese, French and Italian to some degree, especially Portuguese..

I also have a working knowledge of German, Swedish, Norwegian, Danish and Dutch and can understand why they are so good at learning English. We obviously share Germanic roots and some of the sentences make total sense to an English speaker, especially in Dutch (Friesian especially). After learning Swedish I couldn't quite believe how much easier Dutch was. I'm convinced most kids here could easily become fluent at say Dutch or German if they were taught properly from primary school.

I would argue the Romance languages are also more mutually intelligible, which again puts us at a disadvantage.

I can speak Spanish reasonably well - and while Italian and Portuguese have similarities there are significant differences. To say you learn one and can easily become semi fluent in the others without months of study is a bit of a stretch. 

English and Dutch and Danish are quite close linguistically - but how many of us would have a clue about what the locals are saying when we visit Rotterdam or Esbjerg? 

That essentially is the issue for most Brits with FOM - fine for a few to retire to the touristy costas or Malta where English is widely spoken but much harder to move to work and integrate in society as a younger person without speaking one of the 25 odd languages often unique to individual member states.  And that is before you fsctor in the fact that there is mass youth unemployment in most of the most attractive nations in terms of climate in winter. Our winters are bad enough - but eastern Europe and Scandanavia is bitterly cold for weeks and months from November to March.

Hence why only 1 million out of 60 odd million Brits - less than 2% - have taken advantage of FOM and many/most of those are retirees heading for the sun who have property, good pensions and whose healthcare costs continue to be paid for by the UK taxpayer via the S1 scheme. We pay their pensions, heatlhcare costs and more - Spain gets the taxes on house sales and income and spending. If they were here we would still pick up the healthcare costs - but also receive taxes on their income and expenses. 

Edited February 22, 2020 by MARTINX9

[spyguy]

On 20/02/2020 at 05:52, spyguy said:

Heres the chart used.

Oh its scary!!!! ... Except its not.

Ignore ireland, the 'brits' are going to be off Irish origin.

Thats ~ 700k Brits living iin those countries.

According to the current EU settlement data, tnhe number of those countries citizens living in UK are:

France: Applied 172K.

Germany: 85K applied,

Italy: 322K applied.

These numbers, at the mo, pretty much net to 0.

Now start moving beyond the top 3. At the moment, on the EU settlement numbers the ratio of EUers in UK to UKers in EU is about 5:1.

Again, when you start estimating the numbers - and as I said earlier, most EErs have not applied or settlement, the ration is going to be 10+:1.

 

 

 

 

 

 

This weeks Charlemagne column

Poland is cocking up migration in a very European way

https://www.economist.com/europe/2020/02/22/poland-is-cocking-up-migration-in-a-very-european-way

For a glimpse of how immigration is changing Poland, head to Hala Koszyki, an Instagram-friendly food hall in the middle of Warsaw. Take an Uber and there is a good chance the driver will be from Belarus. Inside, Ukrainian waiters and chefs toil over sushi and tapas. Outside, straddling their scooters, a group of UberEats riders from India and elsewhere in South Asia wait to take orders from any Varsovians who fancy a night in.

Poland, one of the eu’s most homogenous countries, is becoming a country of immigration. It took in more workers from outside the eu in 2018 than any other country—nearly five times more than Germany—and is likely to have repeated the trick again in 2019. Nearly 2m Ukrainians have arrived since 2014, pushed by a ropy national economy and a war in the country’s east, and pulled by higher wages in Poland. They are not alone. In the past three years 36,000 Nepalese, 20,000 Indians and 18,000 Bangladeshis have moved to Poland. It is a big shift: Poland, a country of 38m inhabitants, had only 100,000 foreigners of any stripe in 2011. 

 

And the Poles complain ffs.

 

[zugzwang]

 

1 hour ago, spyguy said:

This weeks Charlemagne column

Poland is cocking up migration in a very European way

https://www.economist.com/europe/2020/02/22/poland-is-cocking-up-migration-in-a-very-european-way

For a glimpse of how immigration is changing Poland, head to Hala Koszyki, an Instagram-friendly food hall in the middle of Warsaw. Take an Uber and there is a good chance the driver will be from Belarus. Inside, Ukrainian waiters and chefs toil over sushi and tapas. Outside, straddling their scooters, a group of UberEats riders from India and elsewhere in South Asia wait to take orders from any Varsovians who fancy a night in.

Poland, one of the eu’s most homogenous countries, is becoming a country of immigration. It took in more workers from outside the eu in 2018 than any other country—nearly five times more than Germany—and is likely to have repeated the trick again in 2019. Nearly 2m Ukrainians have arrived since 2014, pushed by a ropy national economy and a war in the country’s east, and pulled by higher wages in Poland. They are not alone. In the past three years 36,000 Nepalese, 20,000 Indians and 18,000 Bangladeshis have moved to Poland. It is a big shift: Poland, a country of 38m inhabitants, had only 100,000 foreigners of any stripe in 2011. 

 

And the Poles complain ffs.

 

Some Poles complain. Other Poles congratulate the EU for their considerable fortune.

https://www.dw.com/en/could-poland-catch-up-with-germanys-economy/a-52425523

Quote

A 2019 report by the Warsaw School of Economics (SGH) argued that if Poland maintained the economic growth rate it had from 1990 to 2018, it would catch up with Germany in 21 years. It would take Poland 14 years to catch up with the average GDP-per-capita rate of the 15 "old" EU member states, the report showed. Hanna Godlewska-Majkowska, a professor at the SGH, wrote in the report that in terms of GDP per capita, Poland caught up with Greece in 2015 and was set to overtake Portugal by the end of this year.

Meanwhile, in the first five months of 2019, Poland surpassed the UK to become the sixth-biggest economic partner of Germany in the world, the Polish Economic Institute (PIE) said in a report. In 2018, Poland's exports to Germany made up 28.2% of all Polish exports, while imports stood at 22.4%.

Almost 16 years ago, Poland joined the EU and at the time was one of the least affluent countries in the bloc: GDP per capita was $16,000 in purchasing power parity, the second-lowest after Latvia. Unemployment was 19%. The average monthly salary was less than 2,300 zlotys (€510). Over the last decade and a half, the country has grown around 4% a year on average, more than three times the EU average of 1.2%. Polish GDP was 44% of the EU average in 2004, compared with 67% in 2018.

 

[Arpeggio]

1 hour ago, spyguy said:

This weeks Charlemagne column

Poland is cocking up migration in a very European way

https://www.economist.com/europe/2020/02/22/poland-is-cocking-up-migration-in-a-very-european-way

For a glimpse of how immigration is changing Poland, head to Hala Koszyki, an Instagram-friendly food hall in the middle of Warsaw. Take an Uber and there is a good chance the driver will be from Belarus. Inside, Ukrainian waiters and chefs toil over sushi and tapas. Outside, straddling their scooters, a group of UberEats riders from India and elsewhere in South Asia wait to take orders from any Varsovians who fancy a night in.

Poland, one of the eu’s most homogenous countries, is becoming a country of immigration. It took in more workers from outside the eu in 2018 than any other country—nearly five times more than Germany—and is likely to have repeated the trick again in 2019. Nearly 2m Ukrainians have arrived since 2014, pushed by a ropy national economy and a war in the country’s east, and pulled by higher wages in Poland. They are not alone. In the past three years 36,000 Nepalese, 20,000 Indians and 18,000 Bangladeshis have moved to Poland. It is a big shift: Poland, a country of 38m inhabitants, had only 100,000 foreigners of any stripe in 2011. 

And the Poles complain ffs.

I hope this economic gripe avoids the danger of mingling with the mentality of throwing banana skins at black footballers and other actual racism that exists in Poland. That the two issues stay distinguished from each other.

[Arpeggio]

7 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

Some Poles complain. Other Poles congratulate the EU for their considerable fortune.

https://www.dw.com/en/could-poland-catch-up-with-germanys-economy/a-52425523

A report from the Warsaw School of Economics (SGH) argued that...

Do you have any sources that don’t receive any money from the EU?

[zugzwang]

3 hours ago, Arpeggio said:

Do you have any sources that don’t receive any money from the EU?

It's a reasonable conjecture given the extraordinary success of the Polish economy since it joined the EU.

 

 

[Arpeggio]

1 hour ago, zugzwang said:

It's a reasonable conjecture given the extraordinary success of the Polish economy since it joined the EU.

So that’s a no then.

You don’t need to tell me Poland have benefited from the countries within the EU, such as the U.K. (which is very clear when you look at the facts). The point here is Polish views towards other countries benefiting from Poland, which you would be correct, in terms of consistency, to suggest there should be no issue.

[zugzwang]

1 minute ago, Arpeggio said:

So that’s a no then.

You don’t need to tell me Poland have benefited from the countries within the EU, such as the U.K. (which is very clear when you look at the facts). The point here is Polish views towards other countries benefiting from Poland, which you would be correct, in terms of consistency, to suggest there should be no issue.

Poland is booming, as are all the Visigrad economies. But the German economy is fundamentally sound, enjoying record employment and carrying very little debt, unlike the UK.

Balanced enough for you?

 

 

[dances with sheeple]

On 19/02/2020 at 14:31, Andy T said:

interesting why?

Some of that group will want to work. And a big chunk of that group that are currently students, they will not stay students forever, I think that's the point.

Too many going into further education, some as a stopgap as there is little else to go into, when really many of them should have the opportunity to go into highly skilled, technical apprenticeships, emerging industries, not just the lip service to 'apprenticeship training' that we've had in the last few years.

You don`t really think the average person going to "Uni" is capable of entering these highly skilled fields do you? To get into Uni the academic bar should be set so that only those with real academic ability get there, the rest can fill the immigrant jobs and take night classes.

[Arpeggio]

3 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

Poland is booming, as are all the Visigrad economies. But the German economy is fundamentally sound, enjoying record employment and carrying very little debt, unlike the UK.

Balanced enough for you?

You’ve just repeated yourself, adding Germany, and sticking on UK debt as though being in the EU would have any alleviating bearing on that.

You don’t need to tell me Poland have benefited from the countries within the EU, such as the U.K. (which is very clear when you look at the facts). The point here is Polish views towards other countries benefiting from Poland. 

So why are you? Perhaps tell the Polish who are whining to stop it. I’m sure they will appreciate it, especially if you are not Polish.

[spyguy]

Poland and all EE countries neighbouring Gernany.

They had a massive cash infusion tge EU at tge government level. And huge transfer from the UK benefit system/labour market at the family level.

Combine with a move from unproductive collective rural economy to industrial/urbanification in 15. Something that took Ireland 30 years.

But Polands politics is poisonous. Other EE governnents and civil society are corrupt, worse so than after the USSR.

Thats all down to the 20s - 50s cohort pissing off enmass to Germany and UK, leaving the old n the backward looking.

This will be felt for years, if not generations.

You might see some thrown out of Europe.

You might see Europe break up, with Brexit, caused in the nmin by EE FOM being the main cause.

 

 

[spyguy]

1 minute ago, Arpeggio said:

You’ve just repeated yourself, adding Germany, and sticking on UK debt as though being in the EU would have any alleviating bearing on that.

You don’t need to tell me Poland have benefited from the countries within the EU, such as the U.K. (which is very clear when you look at the facts). The point here is Polish views towards other countries benefiting from Poland. 

So why are you? Perhaps tell the Polish who are whining to stop it. I’m sure they will appreciate it, especially if you are not Polish.

(Not responfing yo your poibts, just contuing the argument)

UK prints its own debt.

That doesnt give it a maguc bail out but does avoid the Greece siutation - an artificial boom, followed by baby eating austerity.

[zugzwang]

1 minute ago, Arpeggio said:

You’ve just repeated yourself, adding Germany, and sticking on UK debt as though being in the EU would have any alleviating bearing on that.

You don’t need to tell me Poland have benefited from the countries within the EU, such as the U.K. (which is very clear when you look at the facts). The point here is Polish views towards other countries benefiting from Poland. 

So why are you? Perhaps tell the Polish who are whining to stop it. I’m sure they will appreciate it, especially if you are not Polish.

The point is that most Poles are winning not whining. Support for the EU is higher in Poland than almost anywhere in Europe.

 

[zugzwang]

3 minutes ago, spyguy said:

(Not responfing yo your poibts, just contuing the argument)

UK prints its own debt.

That doesnt give it a maguc bail out but does avoid the Greece siutation - an artificial boom, followed by baby eating austerity.

Greek exports hit an all-time high last year.

https://greekcitytimes.com/2020/02/23/greek-exports-to-world-on-record-high/

But cheer up. There's only four more years of Help to Buy left to come. ?

[spyguy]

4 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

Greek exports hit an all-time high last year.

https://greekcitytimes.com/2020/02/23/greek-exports-to-world-on-record-high/

But cheer up. There's only four more years of Help to Buy left to come. ?

I still dont trust greek eco stats.

[Arpeggio]

10 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

The point is that most Poles are winning not whining. Support for the EU is higher in Poland than almost anywhere in Europe.

Either you are intelligent and trying to trick me into an argument I haven't made, or (to put it humorously), you see the EU as the basis for all life. I'll repeat myself again...

You don’t need to tell me Poland have benefited from the countries within the EU, such as the U.K. (which is very clear when you look at the facts). The point here is Polish views towards other countries benefiting from Poland, which you would be correct, in terms of consistency, to suggest there should be no issue.

So in that case fine, I take it the Polish are OK with that, via your EU point?

[Arpeggio]

19 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

Greek exports hit an all-time high last year.

https://greekcitytimes.com/2020/02/23/greek-exports-to-world-on-record-high/

But cheer up. There's only four more years of Help to Buy left to come. ?

Few Brexiters on here will make a secret of their disdain for the rigged U.K. housing market. I would also agree with other people's grievances from other countries, when those issues are nothing to do with the EU.

I can't recall trying to use those as part of an anti-EU argument though.....ergo I might say "Germany burns 8 times more coal than the U.K." and this may have some relevance to the EU's green policy, just like I might also say something about Pro-EU Goldman Sachs f*cking over Greece in the first place....but a policy in a country that is entirely domestic, I would look at as just that.

Edited February 23, 2020 by Arpeggio

[Arpeggio]

33 minutes ago, spyguy said:

(Not responfing yo your poibts, just contuing the argument)

UK prints its own debt.

That doesnt give it a maguc bail out but does avoid the Greece siutation - an artificial boom, followed by baby eating austerity.

Maybe like a turd blocking descent to the bottom. Something Greece didn't have and ended up in more sh*t.

[slawek]

1 hour ago, spyguy said:

Poland and all EE countries neighbouring Gernany.

They had a massive cash infusion tge EU at tge government level. And huge transfer from the UK benefit system/labour market at the family level.

Combine with a move from unproductive collective rural economy to industrial/urbanification in 15. Something that took Ireland 30 years.

But Polands politics is poisonous. Other EE governnents and civil society are corrupt, worse so than after the USSR.

Thats all down to the 20s - 50s cohort pissing off enmass to Germany and UK, leaving the old n the backward looking.

This will be felt for years, if not generations.

You might see some thrown out of Europe.

You might see Europe break up, with Brexit, caused in the nmin by EE FOM being the main cause.

 

 

As usually you are wrong, money from the EU budget plus transfers from the UK are peanuts (1-2% of GDP).

Poland benefits mainly due to increasing trading with the EU countries, especially with Germany (30% of Poland exports). As you can see below Polish exports have increased 5-10 times since joining the EU, currently around 250bln euro per year, 50% of their economy. Even the new UK blue passports are manufactured in Poland.   

  

[spyguy]

1 hour ago, slawek said:

As usually you are wrong, money from the EU budget plus transfers from the UK are peanuts (1-2% of GDP).

Poland benefits mainly due to increasing trading with the EU countries, especially with Germany (30% of Poland exports). As you can see below Polish exports have increased 5-10 times since joining the EU, currently around 250bln euro per year, 50% of their economy. Even the new UK blue passports are manufactured in Poland.   

  

Cash transfer from uk bennies will be unlikely to show up on any record.

Look for new build houses.

 

[slawek]

7 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Cash transfer from uk bennies will be unlikely to show up on any record.

Look for new build houses.

 

They show up in foreign exchange transactions.

Money send from the UK to Poland is less than 1bln per year, around 0.1-0.2% of Polish GDP.  This includes all money, earned and received as benefits. 

In comparison Ukrainians in Poland send home 4 times more (around 4bln per year).

https://polandin.com/38007852/brexit-burden-poles-in-uk-send-home-less-cash

[longgone]

35 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Cash transfer from uk bennies will be unlikely to show up on any record.

Look for new build houses.

 

Is there data for New builds funded by HTB purchased by Eu nationals ?

[maffo in oxford]

9 hours ago, spyguy said:

Cash transfer from uk bennies will be unlikely to show up on any record.

Look for new build houses.

 

I had nine Poles with the same NI number some years back, this was on a building site in Oxford. All dry liners, one pocketed the main bulk and paid the rest cash in hand. That's why Slawek's stats are bogus.

[Dorkins]

13 hours ago, spyguy said:

Poland and all EE countries neighbouring Gernany.

They had a massive cash infusion tge EU at tge government level. And huge transfer from the UK benefit system/labour market at the family level.

You're throwing the superlatives around here because you haven't got the numbers. These amounts were actually pretty small. Poland's net receipts from the EU of about €13bn are 2% of GDP.