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Mass changes to UK immigration requirements


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8 minutes ago, GregBowman said:

For the time being who are you seriously kidding apart from yourself ? Going to be a barista in Madrid ?

I don't need to kid anybody, funny you should mention Spain as one of my siblings moved to Barcelona to work in IT there. On a seriously good wedge and low living costs so win-win. He married a Spanish lady and they have two children.

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12 minutes ago, GregBowman said:

Some of us like and believe in freedom - bless you -  believe it or not so do the people who exercised it by voting leave 

Leave wasn't a vote for freedom, it was a vote for more authoritarianism. Immigration controls are authoritarianism not freedom, the clue is in the word "control" - it's the government controlling the actions of individuals.

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3 hours ago, dugsbody said:

It is quite a recent thing that freedom of movement with the rest of the EU became unpopular in the UK. It coincided with both the integration of the EE states and the austerity and fallout after the 2008 crisis. If you look back through history, there is almost always an anti-immigrant backlash after any time like that.

Brexit was motivated primarily by an anti-immigration sentiment which is why it is no coincidence that probably 99% (my guess) of brexiters want to end freedom of movement. 

I quite agree with you - it was the integration of the EE states that turned FOM into a problem.

Prior to that the EU was a collection of relatively similar countries - not many people actually moved from one country to another, because there was relatively little point doing so.

It's only when you bolt on a bunch of poor countries to a collective of richer ones that vast swathes of people from those poor countries (wholly understandably) decide they fancy a slice of the money available from working in the richest parts of the EU like Germany or the UK.  The problem is - in my view - wholesale moving of people from one country to another is a truly terrible means of equalising wealth, because of all the knock-on problems it causes (on all sides).  That's why I don't support FOM, but rather more measured and targeted movement.

It is therefore almost certainly the case that if the EE states had never joined the EU Brexit wouldn't have happened.  HOWEVER as you note, the 2008 crisis is also very relevant.  I hadn't thought about it causing anti-immigration sentiment...but austerity etc definitely left a lot of people feeling angry, and voting Leave not because they cared about the EU, or FOM, or immigration, but just because they felt forgotten, and wanted to give David Cameron a black eye (which they did).  That's what I mean about Brexit not being JUST about immigration (even if that is the single largest issue).

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18 hours ago, mallish said:

 

I would not go to a country where I had no skills to offer and or could not speak the language and expect to either be successful or to be looked after and to receive benefits.  

 

We expect them to speak English, otherwise we avoid working there.

In part this lies at the root of the problem as to why we feel so disconnected from the rest of Europe imho.

It's a shame the teaching of modern languages isn't given more of an emphasis in our schools and it's a national embarrassment given how many foreigners can speak English. Plus it's a right pain in the **** to learn a language as an adult and takes a lot of time and dedication unless you are lucky enough to live in a foreign country.

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6 hours ago, debtlessmanc said:

Most ethnic minorities in this country would view the care of their elderly family members as their responsibility anyway. What is it about the young white British folk that thinks it is okay to stick them in homes anyway? 

My brothers and myself cared for my father even when it got really tough towards the end.

Yes, I suspect we'll see an intrinsic shift in the economy, not just substituting EU labour with domestic labour.

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5 hours ago, Dorkins said:

Immigration controls are authoritarianism not freedom, the clue is in the word "control" - it's the government controlling the actions of individuals.

Immigration controls are freedom for the people who live in that country to not be invaded by foreigners. Why should anyone care about the freedom of foreigners to move into their country uninvited?

Globalism is rapidly disappearing in the rear-view mirror. You might as well get used to it.

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21 minutes ago, MarkG said:

Immigration controls are freedom for the people who live in that country to not be invaded by foreigners. Why should anyone care about the freedom of foreigners to move into their country uninvited?

Globalism is rapidly disappearing in the rear-view mirror. You might as well get used to it.

I don't think globalism will disappear, just be managed better. Comparative advantage is not going anywhere.

As with most things, a little bit of something can be good for you. A little bit of internal job protectionism against random EU immigrants is imho a good thing to allow our own unemployed a chance to incubate their work skills and dignity, and allow our communities to be their own social safety nets.

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1 hour ago, MarkG said:

Globalism is rapidly disappearing in the rear-view mirror. You might as well get used to it.

The most nationalist government the UK has had for a while is currently negotiating free trade agreements around the world and has just announced a fairly low bar for inward immigration into the UK. Globalism is here to stay. You might as well get used to it.

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2 hours ago, MarkG said:

Immigration controls are freedom for the people who live in that country to not be invaded by foreigners.

Your bio says that you invaded somebody else's country.

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2 hours ago, Si1 said:

Yes, I suspect we'll see an intrinsic shift in the economy, not just substituting EU labour with domestic labour.

The employment rate in the UK is at record highs right now, where is the evidence that domestic labour was substituted with EU labour? If substitution was happening one UK worker would have become unemployed for each EU worker that arrived, which would have resulted in a big drop in the employment rate.

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2 hours ago, Si1 said:

Yes, I suspect we'll see an intrinsic shift in the economy, not just substituting EU labour with domestic labour.

Interesting prediction, but here are some good statistical trends. A bit outdated but the trend continue.

Quote

 

In 2018, 7.5% of all workers in the UK were born in an EU country. Among the working-age EU population, 81% were in employment. This compares to 75% among the UK born and 57% among the non-EU born.

EU immigration rose sharply in the years leading up to the EU referendum in June 2016, but declined since 2016. Long-term arrivals of EU citizens planning to spend at least 12 months in the country fell by 25% over the same period, reaching 202,000 in 2018. Because estimated emigration of EU nationals also increased, EU net migration fell more sharply – by 59% to 75,000 in 2018.

migrationobservatory

 

 

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12 hours ago, dugsbody said:

I support FOM. We have freedom of movement within the four nations of the UK, we have it with Ireland and for a long time people in the UK mostly thought freedom of movement with Europe was good, if they thought about it at all.

Freedom of movement treats all people within the union equally. You don't have to be privileged, rich, have a high education to move around. Everyone, Welsh, Scottish, English, Northern Irish, Irish has equal opportunity to seek a better life by relocating.

It is quite a recent thing that freedom of movement with the rest of the EU became unpopular in the UK. It coincided with both the integration of the EE states and the austerity and fallout after the 2008 crisis. If you look back through history, there is almost always an anti-immigrant backlash after any time like that. 

You could see it on this very forum and in fact on others. This place in the earlier 2000s would spend a lot of time arguing nuances of financial policy and so on. Immigration was a low topic issue. Now, immigration is the dominant sentiment on here.

Brexit was motivated primarily by an anti-immigration sentiment which is why it is no coincidence that probably 99% (my guess) of brexiters want to end freedom of movement. 

You could have FOM without giving people housing benefit.  After all most if not all Brits in Spain don't get it from the Spanish Government.

I have been anti FOM and housing benefits ever since 99 - when I first knew Spanish citizens coming here and getting benefits.

If housing benefit had been changed and some other things I might not have supported leave - and I am a UKIP member.

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54 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

The most nationalist government the UK has had for a while is currently negotiating free trade agreements around the world and has just announced a fairly low bar for inward immigration into the UK. Globalism is here to stay. You might as well get used to it.

We won't have to pay people to come here any more - that is a massive difference.

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3 hours ago, spacedin said:



It's a shame the teaching of modern languages isn't given more of an emphasis in our schools and it's a national embarrassment given how many foreigners can speak English. Plus it's a right pain in the **** to learn a language as an adult and takes a lot of time and dedication unless you are lucky enough to live in a foreign country.

Very true, the problem is we don't care that much about learning languages (I would like it to be different but politicians don't.  We could easily get more foreign language teachers via immigration but don't want to).

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3 hours ago, spacedin said:

It's a shame the teaching of modern languages isn't given more of an emphasis in our schools and it's a national embarrassment given how many foreigners can speak English

I don't think it's an embarrassment - it's a case of practicalities.

No matter which foreign language we learn it only opens a relatively few doors - to be able to communicate with everyone in Europe you'd have to learn French AND German AND Spanish AND Italian.  Conversely, anyone from France, Belgium, Germany, Austria, Spain or Italy just needs to learn English and they can suddenly communicate across not only Europe but the world.

English is the global language.  We already speak it, which is why we don't have a pressing need to learn others.  The countries with best knowledge of English tend to be ones with obscure native languages (like Netherlands, Denmark or Sweden) because they have the MOST pressing need.  Those with wider-spoken native languages like French or German sit in between.

There are advantages to knowing a language, of course - I speak reasonable German and sometimes work in Germany (even attending the odd meeting in German, not that I can follow it all) and I love the German culture.  But to suggest it's a  "national embarrassment given how many foreigners can speak English" misses a massive point about the effort:reward for a native English speaker to learn random language X vs a non-English speaker learning English.

Arguably the national embarrassment is that we don't leverage this more - whilst other countries need to waste time teaching English, we could use that extra time to give our children a world-leading edge in Maths and Science, for example.

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4 hours ago, spacedin said:

We expect them to speak English, otherwise we avoid working there.

In part this lies at the root of the problem as to why we feel so disconnected from the rest of Europe imho.

It's a shame the teaching of modern languages isn't given more of an emphasis in our schools and it's a national embarrassment given how many foreigners can speak English. Plus it's a right pain in the **** to learn a language as an adult and takes a lot of time and dedication unless you are lucky enough to live in a foreign country.

I agree with you, learning languages when young can offer more freedoms later in life, including different kinds of jobs could do, it makes it harder living in a country not being able to speak the language, not able to get the best from it. We don't give much emphasis to learning new languages in schools......there must be so many people who wished they could speak a second language well and find later in life it is much harder to do.?

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2 hours ago, Dorkins said:

The employment rate in the UK is at record highs right now, where is the evidence that domestic labour was substituted with EU labour? If substitution was happening one UK worker would have become unemployed for each EU worker that arrived, which would have resulted in a big drop in the employment rate.

You're actually disagreeing with a point that I didn't make??

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55 minutes ago, iamnumerate said:

You could have FOM without giving people housing benefit.  After all most if not all Brits in Spain don't get it from the Spanish Government.

I have been anti FOM and housing benefits ever since 99 - when I first knew Spanish citizens coming here and getting benefits.

If housing benefit had been changed and some other things I might not have supported leave - and I am a UKIP member.

Its HB and needs based, unlimited income support - tax credits.

Countries like Spain have contribution based welfare - you pay in for at least 5 years then bennies stop after 2 years.

Just be clear on all things EU - my wife is Italian, my Italian bil has lived in barca for almost 30 years and my brothers family are german; german nephews lies in nlands.

As I posted earlier, just watch the EU settlement stats/applications.

The UK -and the EU - have not been tracking the number of EUers liv9ng in the UK. If they did than Brexit would have been no surprise.

The official numbers, by settlement application, now stand at 3.6m.

The pitch during the vote was '3m .... mainly working' Neither claim is true. The majority of EUers arriving i nthe UK have been entirely dependent on tax credits. And, as they are bring over kids to get that claim, theres the extra cost of public services-  NHS, and schooling at 6k/head. These numbers and spending are insane.

The Brexit vote as in 2016.

Yet, for some reason, theres was a surge of applications in December.

I would guess there will be surges for the net 12 months as EUers get their application in after 1) seeing brexit has happened. 2) The settlement period ends in ~11 months.

Everyone - - UK pols, EU pols, BBC - has been dishoest about the levels EU migration since ~2004.

There were three notable evens - original EE ascension, the EU crash and cuts after 2008 then the ascension ofthe other EE countries inc the Balkans.

Noone - UK or EU -were tracking the numbers settling in the UK. Or the cost tax credits HB, public services,p reassure on housing costs.

UK citizen have had to rely on anecdotal - Eeh, theres Eastern europeans everywhere.

Quick walk in large areas of central Middlesbrough instantly makes you question the figures.

FT Feb 20

UK’s settlement scheme for EU citizens hits 3m applications

Migration project says figure ‘means nothing’ because of imprecise record keeping

https://www.ft.com/content/6e6a7da4-48e9-11ea-aee2-9ddbdc86190d


But Madeleine Sumption, the director of the Migration Observatory at Oxford university, cautioned that because of imprecise record keeping, the 3m figure, revealed by internal Home Office statistics, “meant nothing”.

“We still don’t know how many people still need to apply,” Ms Sumption said. “Three million has symbolic value — the risk is that people will assume that means it’s a job done.”

There are no definitive statistics of how many EU citizens are living in the UK. The 3.6m figure given by the Office for National Statistics is an estimate and excludes people in certain kinds of temporary accommodation, so the total number could be higher.

So this '3m hard working tax paying EUers' is just a BS figure, plucked from the Pols head.

From the comments:

At this rate the citizens rights group might have to rename to the4million!

They you get articles in the local papers:

https://www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/18228733.nearly-20-000-eu-citizens-apply-live-southampton/

In Southampton, Polish nationals made the most applications up to the end of December (7,410), followed by people from Romania (2,630) and Portugal (1,710).

Soton's population is ~250k.

Just on the official, bothered to apply numbers, not far off ~10% of the population is EUer.

If, as I think - and you get a feel for it, walkign around Soton,, barely 50% have applied to settlement, then the true number is around ~20%.

 

Or this one:

Unexpected immigration was major factor behind Middlesbrough school places crisis

An influx of 'international new arrivals' is among a number of reasons for 'unprecedented demand' which has left pupils without places

https://www.gazettelive.co.uk/news/teesside-news/immigration-revealed-single-biggest-factor-15921386

Theyve run out of secondary schools places in boro, a place with no jobs and somewhere thats been losing its population at a rapid clip.

Now, LAs have a good idea of how many schools places they need - the have a record of births, then theres kids in primary school.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/865367/eu-settlement-scheme-statistics-january-2020.pdf

Table 4, official settlement applications

France - 118k (70m pop) so well sub of 1%)

Germany - 85k (82m pop) 0.01%

Both nearby countries.

Both have similar number of working age Brits. You can ignore pensioners in France n Spain as they are living off their own hard earned. And they are falling at rapid clip  dying or coming back to UK.

Then you get Italian- 322kk WTF!!!! Italians used to migrate (bar after WW2, which some of these maybe). Holiday and language learning yep, migrate to UK, since ~1960s, rarely.

Its used to be a big thing, finding a similar aged Italian (under 30 when mrs spy first came over)  living in in the UK -think hens teeth. Now there are loads. I dont know but Id guess the number of births of Italians living in the UK is 3x the rate of Italians in Italy.

Then you get to the EE countries. I wont go into these, instead, lets pick Portugal, pop 10m.

250k have applied to live in the UK. ~2.5% of the population

However . a Portuguese I know reckons the figures is around - 1m - that 10%.

mrs spys year group is about ~10% Portuguese.

Here various teaching school mates report similar figures.

After the emphatic GE win in Dec, Brexit formally happening in Jan -no last minute reprieves, and then Prittis hard migration rule, which are so far rightwing, they put the UK in, err, a similar set of rules as the rest of the EU, which have much harsher rules on migrations and benefits.

A long term EE whos been here since before 2004, working for her parents argi compnay, hosts EEE mums n baby groups via her church.

We were talking about brexit and benefits and settlement.

I pointed out that its unlikely that EE will be marched to the airport - just not going to happen.

However, I did point out that its very likely that access to all benefit bar JSA will stop. The legally words say 'economically active' not 'employed'

If her mums n babies families  can afford to live here without access to HB and TCs then they can probably stay.

My reading is that economically active can be interpreted as generating enough tax to pay for the very expensive public services they consume. Its possible that the UK will go back to charging migrants a fixed figure to cover cost of schooling. UK spend/head is ~5k.

Id point out that not a single one of her mums n babies are living independently of  TCs/GB.

 

 

 

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6 hours ago, scottbeard said:

I don't think it's an embarrassment - it's a case of practicalities.

No matter which foreign language we learn it only opens a relatively few doors - to be able to communicate with everyone in Europe you'd have to learn French AND German AND Spanish AND Italian.  Conversely, anyone from France, Belgium, Germany, Austria, Spain or Italy just needs to learn English and they can suddenly communicate across not only Europe but the world.

English is the global language.  We already speak it, which is why we don't have a pressing need to learn others.  The countries with best knowledge of English tend to be ones with obscure native languages (like Netherlands, Denmark or Sweden) because they have the MOST pressing need.  Those with wider-spoken native languages like French or German sit in between.

There are advantages to knowing a language, of course - I speak reasonable German and sometimes work in Germany (even attending the odd meeting in German, not that I can follow it all) and I love the German culture.  But to suggest it's a  "national embarrassment given how many foreigners can speak English" misses a massive point about the effort:reward for a native English speaker to learn random language X vs a non-English speaker learning English.

Arguably the national embarrassment is that we don't leverage this more - whilst other countries need to waste time teaching English, we could use that extra time to give our children a world-leading edge in Maths and Science, for example.

In the case of Romance languages it really does pay dividends learning one as it opens up the others. Not to blow my own trumpet but I'm semi-fluent in Spanish and can understand written Portuguese, French and Italian to some degree, especially Portuguese..

I also have a working knowledge of German, Swedish, Norwegian, Danish and Dutch and can understand why they are so good at learning English. We obviously share Germanic roots and some of the sentences make total sense to an English speaker, especially in Dutch (Friesian especially). After learning Swedish I couldn't quite believe how much easier Dutch was. I'm convinced most kids here could easily become fluent at say Dutch or German if they were taught properly from primary school.

I would argue the Romance languages are also more mutually intelligible, which again puts us at a disadvantage.

Edited by spacedin
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5 hours ago, spyguy said:

They you get articles in the local papers:

https://www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/18228733.nearly-20-000-eu-citizens-apply-live-southampton/

In Southampton, Polish nationals made the most applications up to the end of December (7,410), followed by people from Romania (2,630) and Portugal (1,710).

Soton's population is ~250k.

Just on the official, bothered to apply numbers, not far off ~10% of the population is EUer.

If, as I think - and you get a feel for it, walkign around Soton,, barely 50% have applied to settlement, then the true number is around ~20%.

With a wave of spyguy's magic wand 19.1k becomes 50k.

Back in the world of factual information the numbers of settled scheme applications are pretty much in line with previous estimates of the numbers of immigrants from EU countries. Wherever those extra 7-9m EU immigrants are, they are doing a good job of hiding.

Edited by Dorkins
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