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beenhearingthisforyears

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For the past few days most of the media has focused on the latest Nationwide HPI figures. "Housing Market gets off to a strong start in 2006

• House prices increased by 1.4% in January, bringing the annual growth rate to 4.4% "

(we all saw the reports and the coverage was documented here)

Even on the radio when I was driving on Friday the commentator spoke of the "extremely buoyant London market"!!

The levels of national debt/personal bankruptcy ect sure make scary reading........&

there has been much discussion here of credit tightening by banks but when they are making record profits of £34bn a 15% rise do they REALLY need to worry? Surely any losses are small change to them?

"High Street banks cash in

Jonathan Prynn, Evening Standard

20 January 2006

HIGH street banks are set to reveal record profits of more than £34bn, a rise of about 15%."

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/saving-and-ba...73&in_page_id=7

Another area that was picked up by mainstream publications over the weekend was recent population projections.

"National Projections

UK population to rise by 7m by 2031

Actual and projected UK population

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=1352

The UK population is projected to increase by 7.2 million over the period 2004 to 2031.

And just how many illegal immigrants are actually here in the UK......that may also feed demand for housing.......?

I can see with all this news/spin/VI whatever you would like to call it how Joe Public could feel prices may not crash for that perfect house he has had his eye on. Unless people stop getting % interest rates credit cards, millions loose their jobs and IR rise.....what will be the trigger??

Unfortunately only a very small proportion of the population view this forum....................SO WHEN do you feel the majority will start to worry......

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......SO WHEN do you feel the majority will start to worry......

When it's too late - just like last time.

Safe in the belief that "it's different this time", "the government won't let it happen", and "house prices only ever go up" they'll be lambs to the slaughter.

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majority hear and see "NO HPC"

The fact that the majority cannot conceive of a fall in prices is for me the single biggest argument for a crash rather than just a slow down in the market.

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I was out at the weekend with a couple of friends (mid 20s) who've just bought a house in Sheffield.

One of the things they said was "our house rose by 1% last month!" - I decided not to talk about why I rent.

Another person is thinking of buying. They even talked about peak oil/debt but still thought now was a good time to buy.

One thing we all agreed was that flats in Sheffield were a waste of time, badly built and are going to crash quite badly. They seemed to think though that a house was a good investment cos all the people selling flats are likely to want to buy a house (away from the town centre)

When my friends start talking about the falling market without my input then I'll know it's happening but for now everything seems positive in Sheffield... :(

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The fact that the majority cannot conceive of a fall in prices is for me the single biggest argument for a crash rather than just a slow down in the market.

It is perhaps not that they can not conceive but every day they are hearing/reading/discussing what they read in their newspapers and see on TV.

Only today BBC talks of "Uk economy picking up this year"

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4683068.stm

Unless they start to directly get effected........when will they start to worry??

Edited by beenhearingthisforyears

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i have some sympathy with what you are saying. we've always stated that sentiment will be driving any correction following events. the only events we seem to be getting are small rises in house prices, steady interest rates and bbc stories. it doesn't surprise me that you've been hearing this for years. any correction will be very slow, like the last one, because the market is so BIG.

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"Doom and gloom" (good news for some/bad for others) is infectious! Just think, over 2000 people have read/contributed to the HSBC article warning people to "stay clear" of property on this forum. The most bearish article yet from a major newspaper (FT). If those 2000+ people tell just one person . . . .

Christianity began with one, then twelve, then a couple of billion and that was also Good News!

Never underestimate the power of information that is spread with conviction and excitement.

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I'm amazed at the resilience of the market, and I still think the UK is heading for a fall. But in my part of SE Greater London, family houses are selling very quickly - I mean offers in days or a couple of weeks. This may be a spring bounce, but it's certainly a turnaround from the past 18 months, no doubt. Higher value houses (£400 - £600) are sticky, but the million pound plus market have a shortage of properties.

In short, I think this forum is very much in a minority and a real crash is some way off.

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Much of what is said above (and indeed in other threads where spin is mentioned), I think, suggests the need to try the idea of putting forward an HPC candidate in the May 2006 local elections in order to generate publicity for HPC and our arguments. See:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=23455

There is the potential for making many thousands more people aware that much of what is churned out by the media about the housing market is spin and that there are alternative perceptions, interpretations and arguments about house prices. Broadly speaking it would help many more people become aware of the disadvantages of high/rising house prices and the advantages of falling house prices. Or, we can let the VI's continue to have a free and unchallenged environment for their spin which, in my mind has a continuing significant impact on extending the period of time before house prices begin to fall significantly.

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"Doom and gloom" (good news for some/bad for others) is infectious! Just think, over 2000 people have read/contributed to the HSBC article warning people to "stay clear" of property on this forum. The most bearish article yet from a major newspaper (FT). If those 2000+ people tell just one person . . . .

Christianity began with one, then twelve, then a couple of billion and that was also Good News!

Never underestimate the power of information that is spread with conviction and excitement.

I would need a moderator to confirm, but doesn't the number of "hits" a thread receive, also includes the numerous times an individual member reads/posts on the same topic?

not sure of my facts here? So I apologize in advance if I am wrong.

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

I would need a moderator to confirm, but doesn't the number of "hits" a thread receive, also includes the numerous times an individual member reads/posts on the same topic?

not sure of my facts here? So I apologize in advance if I am wrong.

Maybe Alexa can help.

HPC Traffic Rank Monday 6th February

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i have some sympathy with what you are saying. we've always stated that sentiment will be driving any correction following events. the only events we seem to be getting are small rises in house prices, steady interest rates and bbc stories. it doesn't surprise me that you've been hearing this for years. any correction will be very slow, like the last one, because the market is so BIG.

I got some stick for my sign in when i 1st joined this forum. no offence is intended, but the price hikes started in London so talk of a crash has been around me for longer than i care to remember......

(not directed at Benjamin in anyway)

Edited by beenhearingthisforyears

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Unfortunately only a very small proportion of the population view this forum....................SO WHEN do you feel the majority will start to worry......

If the majority did worry it wouldn't have happened.

Majority follows the herd, follows the easy money... Supplies the easy money..

Suddenly needs an awful lot more easy money..

Easy money gets harder to find..

round and around

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The answer is quite simple. They will start to worry when housing becomes unaffordable for them or when they realise they are in negative equity.

This might or might not happen, if it does happen they might not even notice it has happened at all until they try to move up the "ladder" or until they need to sell.

People will continue hearing that everything is fine and will continue to believe all is fine until it is not fine for them.

People will even see and hear evidence of falling prices all around them but will continue to believe that everything will be ok for them, until it isnt ok for them.

It is straightforward. Do you think current prices are sustainable?

Yes - fine

No - well what do you think will happen next?

Wages will catch up to bring down real value of mortgages?

Interest rates will fall and remain at very small amounts for ever and ever amen so reducing cost of borrowing?

Prices will fall?

Its your call

For what it is worth, I too am amazed at the resilience of the market

Edited by paradox

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They sold an illegal war on a pack of lies peddled by the Media, so selling the housing market is a piece of p@ss in comparison.

Headline in Saturdays Yorkshire Post " Hopes of House Price Rises" implication is GOOD

Headline in The Sunday Mail "Anger over '25% gas price hike' implication is BAD

It's all part of the process of the "Amerification" of the general public ...tell them oft times enough and they will believe any crap you want em to believe. :rolleyes:

Edited by Catch22

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Guest Bart of Darkness

I was out at the weekend with a couple of friends (mid 20s) who've just bought a house in Sheffield.

One of the things they said was "our house rose by 1% last month!" - I decided not to talk about why I rent.

Another person is thinking of buying. They even talked about peak oil/debt but still thought now was a good time to buy.

One thing we all agreed was that flats in Sheffield were a waste of time, badly built and are going to crash quite badly. They seemed to think though that a house was a good investment cos all the people selling flats are likely to want to buy a house (away from the town centre)

When my friends start talking about the falling market without my input then I'll know it's happening but for now everything seems positive in Sheffield... :(

Have to agree with that last statement. General sentiment is as before (prices only ever go up, interest rates won't go up). Confidence, as they say, is high.

Confidence didn't save the Titanic though. ;)

When the average person becomes fully aware of the full extent of the debt crisis (particularly in the US), fuel crisis, rising unemployment, the collapse of manufacturing jobs in this country etc., it will be far, far

too late!

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I kind of agree, BHTFY, that, as one HPCer once so brilliantly dubbed us, '4,000 anoraks' aren't going to have a massive effect. The crash is going to be caused by pesky old reality. The Northern Rock 6xsalary mortgage, for the purpose of which 'high earner' is defined as someone earning in excess of 100 grand (from the Guardian piece listed in the news blog) for example - what is that!! People have come to think about money in a totally distorted way - anything under a 100 grand is peanuts - and the reality is going to hit them like a train any time now. Make me some popcorn and pull me up a chair.

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Lastminute ups its float price

Thursday, 9 March, 2000

Internet site Lastminute.com has raised its flotation price as demand soars for one of the UK's largest internet share offers.

The new range is 320 pence to 380 pence, up from the original range of 190 pence to 230 pence.

If it is priced in the middle of the new range, the company will be valued at over £500m.

Demand in the grey market - the unofficial share market - is so high that some analysts expect the company to be valued at over £800m when its shares are offered for sale on 14 March.

---

March 10: Nasdaq's record all-time closing high 5,048.62

Blodget writes the following in a column for News.com in January 1999: "Unlike with other famous bubbles ... the Internet bubble is riding on rock-solid fundamentals, perhaps stronger than any the market has seen before. Underlying the crazy price increases are the foundations of what could become the early 21st century's leading growth companies.... Just because the Internet stock phenomenon looks like a bubble, it isn't a given that the bubble will burst."

Alas, Blodget, now with Merrill Lynch, maintains his buy rating on Amazon until July 27, 2000, when the stock's split-adjusted price has dwindled to about $180.

Blodget rates ExciteAtHome "accumulate," but in an e-mail terms it "such a piece of crap."

While Infospace is being touted as a "Top 15" firm by Merrill Lynch with a "buy" rating, Blodget tells his colleagues: "This stock is a powder keg . . . given the 'bad smell' comments that so many institutions are bringing up."

---

March 14: Lastminute.com shares soar 28% on first day of trading.

---

April 12, 2000

With today's decline, the Nasdaq has lost 25 percent of its value since it reached a record high barely one month ago. When it peaked on March 10, the Nasdaq was sitting on a gain of 24 percent for the year. It has now lost 7.4 percent in 2000. Today's plunge ranks as the second-largest point loss and the sixth-largest decline in percentage terms.

---

June 18, 2001 - Nasdaq falls below critical 2,000 mark

---

March 2005

The Nasdaq Composite Index is now about 60 percent below the all-time high set on March 10th, 2000 and has to rise 140 percent to reach its pre-crash level, compared with 7 percent and 25 percent for the Dow and the S&P 500, respectively.

What a weekend followed Friday March 10th, 2000, for those who believed the hype that the "old economy" and the rules of economics were for people stuck in a Stone Age.

---

Feb 2006

One man called 'been hearing this for years' in an internet forum doubts the very existence of a property bubble and discounts the possibly as crash as irrational conjecture.

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One man called 'been hearing this for years' in an internet forum doubts the very existence of a property bubble and discounts the possibly as crash as irrational conjecture.

?????? and when did i EVER say this???????

And your opinion on the points raised in my post about people WHO DO NOT READ THIS FORUM?

And your thoughts please on populations projections as raised in my post.

Edited by beenhearingthisforyears

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[/color] ?????? and when did i EVER say this???????

And your opinion on the points raised in my post about people WHO DO NOT READ THIS FORUM?

And your thoughts please on populations projections as raised in my post.

I thought you would see the parallels in that post but obviously not, your positive "populations projections" are no different to Henry Blodgett's "rock-solid fundamentals".

"Unlike with other famous bubbles ... the Internet bubble is riding on rock-solid fundamentals, perhaps stronger than any the market has seen before. Underlying the crazy price increases are the foundations of what could become the early 21st century's leading growth companies.... Just because the Internet stock phenomenon looks like a bubble, it isn't a given that the bubble will burst"

This market doesn't represent true fundamentals, if your point was valid and that the housing market is reflecting true fundamentals how does that explain >200% HPI and a population shift of >59m to 60m.

Sentiment is undoubtedly a factor, obviously the entrie adult population doesn't have to read this forum for a crash to commence. FTB'ers are out, their replacement in the form of investors can see the returns for themselves, they will look at the performance of the stock market and the housing markets, which is 4% YoY if Halifax is to be believed, basically less than deposit account. If you know the market and follow it closely people can see falls and clever investors aren't sentimental, people can see this for themselves without our help.

Edited by BuyingBear

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If you compare houses with shares, you probably need to compare the 4% YOY HPI with a share's price going up and then compare the % return (if a property is rented out) with the dividend yield. All of which vary.

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If you compare houses with shares, you probably need to compare the 4% YOY HPI with a share's price going up and then compare the % return (if a property is rented out) with the dividend yield. All of which vary.

Indeed, they're leveraged up to their eye balls of course, which makes it worse if your rents aren't covering liabilities.

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I thought you would see the parallels in that post but obviously not, your positive "populations projections" are no different to Henry Blodgett's "rock-solid fundamentals".

This market doesn't represent true fundamentals, if your point was valid and that the housing market is reflecting true fundamentals how does that explain >200% HPI and a population shift of >59m to 60m.

Sentiment is undoubtedly a factor, obviously the entrie adult population doesn't have to read this forum for a crash to commence. FTB'ers are out, their replacement in the form of investors can see the returns for themselves, they will look at the performance of the stock market and the housing markets, which is 4% YoY if Halifax is to be believed, basically less than deposit account. If you know the market and follow it closely people can see falls and clever investors aren't sentimental, people can see this for themselves without our help.

I am sorry but IMO general Joe Public is not financially savvy - see report.

Millions Afraid To Change

Updated: 06:27, Monday February 06, 2006

http://www.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30400-13503178,00.html

More than half of Britons admit their finances are in poor shape, but only a third have plans to improve them this year, a survey has shown.

"Over two-thirds are putting off sorting out their financial situation due to ignorance and not knowing where to start, according to investment exhibition invest06."

i am not without a brain but i would not consider STR and trusting my luck on stock market for example (because the thought scares the hell out of me) or having any equity in savings account. Halifax sent me email today saying they are lowering interest rates on my web saver account. For many, buying/owning a home is not JUST about investing but having a place to live/settle etc....... they are the people who i am referring to. Do you think they sit at home thinking "well yes those lying bu$$ers at the BBC made up the latest Nationwide figures" they do not read this forum.........and that is my point.

Edited by beenhearingthisforyears

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I am sorry but IMO general Joe Public is not financially savvy - see report.

Indeed, they will see it for themselves when basic bills and taxes are racing ahead yet their wages are static and their magic MEW'ing fairy is straight out of pixie dust. I'm amazed that 200% HPI doesn't really phase you and can be explained away by 'fundamentals' yet you're afraid of the stock markets and its comparatively modest risk ratios that are balanced and spread, the p/e for most companies appears a lot more sustainable than the housing market. Yields for new BTL properties are often below the cost of borrowing.

They will soon realise when the keg is empty, you don't have to be that 'savvy' to realise the money has run out!

Edited by BuyingBear

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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