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Pending United Ireland? - Effect on House Prices


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I don't want to make any political statements about a United Ireland, but with recent Developments - Tory Landslide in UK Election, strong showing for Sinn Fein in Irish elections and Brexit in process - it looks like this could lead to a United Ireland much sooner than had been expected. What are the thoughts on how this will effect house prices in what is now Northern Ireland. Would the inevitable economic disruption of unification spook the market and cause dramatic falls, or will the higher prices in the south of Ireland lead to a realignment and uplift in prices up here. My sense is that the uncertainty will have a negative effect in the short to medium term, in the long term prices will reflect the economic performance of the reunited country if this happens. Discuss?

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2 minutes ago, jwrag said:

I don't want to make any political statements about a United Ireland, but with recent Developments - Tory Landslide in UK Election, strong showing for Sinn Fein in Irish elections and Brexit in process - it looks like this could lead to a United Ireland much sooner than had been expected. What are the thoughts on how this will effect house prices in what is now Northern Ireland. Would the inevitable economic disruption of unification spook the market and cause dramatic falls, or will the higher prices in the south of Ireland lead to a realignment and uplift in prices up here. My sense is that the uncertainty will have a negative effect in the short to medium term, in the long term prices will reflect the economic performance of the reunited country if this happens. Discuss?

Too many variables. Besides the process will take years if not decades. We're already going to have our dealignment with/within the UK and potentially getting further away as GB moves further from the EU. What the effects will be is anyone's guess. It will be interesting to see if SFs commitment to having a discussion on reunification includes these sorts if questions you raise. I'd expect it to. 

 

 

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I would strongly recommend the 2011 NI Census as the figures are nothing like people would expect:

Demography of Northern Ireland - Wikipedia

Well worth studying as it is far more complicated than pure green and orange politics that the general UI debate seems to focus round.

As for you question about house prices. NI receives £10 billion more than it takes in tax each year - put simply a shortfall of just over £5K for every man, woman and child and the public sector accounts for 27%-ish percent of all jobs in NI. The UK has approximately 33.5 million tax payers, RoI 2.5 million. Unless there would be some magic way of plugging the gap then I would suggest that house prices would fall, although, as Belfast VI stated "I imagine it is far in the future."

Edited by The_Equalizer
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Maybe the £10 billion a year is the reason the UK government will be more than willing to cut NI adrift. It would only take a single dissident attack on the British mainland to convince the voting public of the lunacy of shoring up a country who's citizens are attacking them in a bid for independence when they can barely fund their own public sector. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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I'm certain the rest of the UK would love to be rid of us.

"put simply a shortfall of just over £5K for every man, woman and child", yeah, turkeys do not vote for Christmas.

Protestants are not going to vote for a UI. Will 100% of Catholics vote for a drop in living standards? I'd very much doubt it.

Realistically the chances of us voting for a United Ireland, under the current economic conditions, are somewhere between slim and none.

 

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  • 415 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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