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Optimism returns to housing market, with some crediting ‘Boris bounce’ for revival

House prices rose across the UK for the first time in one and a half years last month as optimism returned among buyers and sellers, according to surveyors and estate agents.

In further evidence that the housing market is picking up, inquiries from would-be buyers, agreed sales and the number of properties coming on to the market all rose in January, according to the latest monthly snapshot from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics).

A net balance of 17% of surveyors and estate agents, which measures the difference between those reporting increases and those seeing decreases, reported higher house prices in January, the first time this measure has been positive since July 2018. In December, the reading was -2%.

 

 

Congratulations Boris voters! ?

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5 hours ago, PeanutButter said:

Optimism returns to housing market, with some crediting ‘Boris bounce’ for revival

House prices rose across the UK for the first time in one and a half years last month as optimism returned among buyers and sellers, according to surveyors and estate agents.

In further evidence that the housing market is picking up, inquiries from would-be buyers, agreed sales and the number of properties coming on to the market all rose in January, according to the latest monthly snapshot from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics).

A net balance of 17% of surveyors and estate agents, which measures the difference between those reporting increases and those seeing decreases, reported higher house prices in January, the first time this measure has been positive since July 2018. In December, the reading was -2%.

 

 

Congratulations Boris voters! ?

No prices haven't risen. EA sentiment has risen.

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8 minutes ago, Sausage said:

No prices haven't risen. EA sentiment has risen.

Is it spring yet?

The time for transnational exchanging of cards, saying Mr n Mrs A are looking for a house in your area.

Noone knows how this custom originiated. It is believed to come fro ma ancient pagan ceremony,,,,

 

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52 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Are wages and employment going up, ahead of inflation?

In which case houses in some areas might rise. A bit.

If neither are rising than at best, housing will stay the same or fall.

 

This, 100%. But I am not underestimating the satanic 40 year term mortgages and other schemes to keep the stupid bubble afloat. I see it around my way. Couple who are on £25 each - maybe 30K - putting in offers for houses at £300k plus. How? 

I also think most EAs do not do any due diligence and sales fall through later. 

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38 minutes ago, stuckmojo said:

This, 100%. But I am not underestimating the satanic 40 year term mortgages and other schemes to keep the stupid bubble afloat. I see it around my way. Couple who are on £25 each - maybe 30K - putting in offers for houses at £300k plus. How? 

I also think most EAs do not do any due diligence and sales fall through later. 

Agree totally.

In my experience RICS is a good barometer of where the market is heading. Lower mortgage rates and extension of mortgage terms are fuelling price rises, much as it pains me to say.

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46 minutes ago, stuckmojo said:

This, 100%. But I am not underestimating the satanic 40 year term mortgages and other schemes to keep the stupid bubble afloat. I see it around my way. Couple who are on £25 each - maybe 30K - putting in offers for houses at £300k plus. How? 

 

60k joint income, mortgage 4.5x that = 270k lending.  So a 90% Mortgage.

30k deposit needed - comes from previous flat/house equity, savings or bank of M&D.

 Sad, but it's where we are. The bank doesn't care if its long term affordable or not, or high risk.

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33 minutes ago, mallish said:

They were not doing that when they were reporting falling prices 

Yes, RICS is apparently pretty accurate, and I do think it represents a positive outlook for sales at the moment. They will be wanting it to continue to the spring bounce. I predict an up and down year after this positive start - and in this I actually agree with most of the commentators, who aren't getting carried away overall.

From my point of view, positive isn't so positive, but I'll use media speak for now

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Fewer people are prepared to move, want to move, they are sticking and improving if they can......the increase could be home improvements, extensions and lofts, to try and appeal to a greater number of punters when it comes to sell.....I can't see most leasehold property going anywhere.?

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3 hours ago, stuckmojo said:

This, 100%. But I am not underestimating the satanic 40 year term mortgages and other schemes to keep the stupid bubble afloat. I see it around my way. Couple who are on £25 each - maybe 30K - putting in offers for houses at £300k plus. How? 

I also think most EAs do not do any due diligence and sales fall through later. 

Well ........ long mortgage terms looks good on paper but ....

Lets take some bright-eyed 25yo, borrowing 200k @ 5% for 25 years.

Drum roll ....

£1,170, total repayment .... £350,882

Oh dear. Thats la lot of money a month. What if we go to 35 years?

.....

£1,010/month. A total saving of ..... ~40 - count em - pounds a week less . /boomer on Probably what a couple of millenniums spend on lattes ... /boomer off

total payments .... £424,133

~75K more.

And, if like the last 15 years, theres going to limited wage inflation to bail them out.

 

Once you get beyond beyond 20 years, extending the mortgage does not help you as a buyer.

Equally, it doesnt  allow you to borrow much more than ~25 years.

My guess that 25+ year mortgages are being sold to people with limited financial resources.

Ill expect these to go bad as soon as Mrs Mortgagee pops out the first kid.

The BoE will then update MMR to restrict mortgage terms.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, spyguy said:

Well ........ long mortgage terms looks good on paper but ....

Lets take some bright-eyed 25yo, borrowing 200k @ 5% for 25 years.

Drum roll ....

£1,170, total repayment .... £350,882

Oh dear. Thats la lot of money a month. What if we go to 35 years?

.....

£1,010/month. A total saving of ..... ~40 - count em - pounds a week less . /boomer on Probably what a couple of millenniums spend on lattes ... /boomer off

total payments .... £424,133

~75K more.

And, if like the last 15 years, theres going to limited wage inflation to bail them out.

 

Once you get beyond beyond 20 years, extending the mortgage does not help you as a buyer.

Equally, it doesnt  allow you to borrow much more than ~25 years.

My guess that 25+ year mortgages are being sold to people with limited financial resources.

Ill expect these to go bad as soon as Mrs Mortgagee pops out the first kid.

The BoE will then update MMR to restrict mortgage terms.

 

 

 

 

 

 

£1,000pcm split between two earners on £25k is certainly doable. Throw in free childcare from grandparents and that's how people make it work.

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1 hour ago, rantnrave said:

£1,000pcm split between two earners on £25k is certainly doable. Throw in free childcare from grandparents and that's how people make it work.

IME m outside of the public sector, you rarely find a couple both earning similar.

When you have kids, typically, one ofthe couple tend to take a back seat, earning wise.

My  comment wasnt really about whether they could afford 1k/month mortgage. But that by increasing the mortgage term by ~40% theyve only decreased the monthly payments by ~10%.

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7 hours ago, Andy T said:

60k joint income, mortgage 4.5x that = 270k lending.  So a 90% Mortgage.

30k deposit needed - comes from previous flat/house equity, savings or bank of M&D.

 Sad, but it's where we are. The bank doesn't care if its long term affordable or not, or high risk.

Hey, but if all goes pete tong it will be the lenders that will be holding the baby, equity created out of thin air evaporates......all debt to the lenders are assets, all savings are liabilities.....printed money is just that, created out of thin air.....zeros on a balance sheet/bank statement...negative or positive.... - or +.;)

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6 hours ago, spyguy said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51487822

If wishes were kisses.

~80% of the UK is a demographic busted flush.

All that lost equity that ~40yo failed to build up over the last 20 eayrs livign in slumlords IO BTL will now be took off the place they buy.

Combine that with the slumlords IO BTL and OO hitting the market as they go bust.

Baffles me that hidden away in the usual BBC fluff piece about how healthy the housing "market" is you get this gemSeparate figures from UK Finance, which represents the major banks, showed a 17% rise in the number of homes repossessed by mortgage lenders.

This says a hell of a lot more about the precarious state of the housing market and the debt positions of its participants than what a surveyor "feels" when he gets out of bed In the morning. Why isn't this the "news".

Seriously, I despair.

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The 17% increase in repossessions is interesting. 

17% seems a lot however the absolute numbers are tiny, 1,330 owner-occupier repossesions out of 9 million mortgages in Q4 2019, 59 in every 100,000 mortgages. 

https://www.ukfinance.org.uk/data-and-research/data/mortgages/arrears-and-possessions

View the PDF, Arrears are down but it's interesting the number of cases where the borrower is in arrears equivalent to 10% or more of the outstanding mortgage.  21,770 in Q4 2019. 

I guess if there's equity in the house then arrears only generate more interest for the bank, And if the property is in negative equity then the lender won't want to book the loss. 

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16 hours ago, Sausage said:

No prices haven't risen. EA sentiment has risen.

 

14 hours ago, Andy T said:

maybe, but when things are stagnant, they really ramp, sound just like estate agents.

No Boris bounce. 

Just a few desparate vendors who've been waiting 12 months for a offer finally accepting a low baller and some stuff going under offerafter the election. 

This then allows the cuddly agent to talk up the prices to a few more prospective sellers and new all time high asking prices. Stalemate, again. The ***** just have themselves to blame. If they priced sensibly, stuff might sell quicker. 

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7 hours ago, Council estate capitalist said:

The 17% increase in repossessions is interesting. 

17% seems a lot however the absolute numbers are tiny, 1,330 owner-occupier repossesions out of 9 million mortgages in Q4 2019, 59 in every 100,000 mortgages. 

https://www.ukfinance.org.uk/data-and-research/data/mortgages/arrears-and-possessions

View the PDF, Arrears are down but it's interesting the number of cases where the borrower is in arrears equivalent to 10% or more of the outstanding mortgage.  21,770 in Q4 2019. 

I guess if there's equity in the house then arrears only generate more interest for the bank, And if the property is in negative equity then the lender won't want to book the loss. 

Maybe.

More intererting is weve had ~10 years of ZIRP and people still cannot afford to pay their mortgages.

 

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  • 415 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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