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If The Proverbial Really Does Hit The Fan

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the following is probably paranoid nonsense but it makes you wonder about how safe the likes of goldmoney are (or anything bar keeping it under the bed!).

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/s.../2006/0201.html

HOMELAND SECURITY WILL CONTROL SAFE DEPOSIT BOXES IN A CRISIS

A source at Bellaciao.com filed the following report, which I have confirmed from other sources:

"A family member from Irvine, CA (who's a branch manager at Bank of America) told us two weeks ago that her bank held a workshop where the last two days were dedicated to discussing their bank's new security measures... [M]embers from the Homeland Security Office instructed them on how to field calls from customers and what they are to tell them in the event of a national disaster. She said they were told how only agents from Homeland Security (during such an event) would be in charge of opening safe deposit boxes and determining what items would be given to bank customers. At this point they were told that no weapons, cash, gold, or silver will be allowed to leave the bank -- only various paperwork will be given to its owners. After discussing the matter with them at length, she and the other employees were then told not to discuss the subject with anyone.

"The family member has since given her notice to quit the bank. I found the news alarming and decided to find out more myself. On a trip to my bank here in Houston, I remarked to a young bank employee (who's new there), 'Well I guess you've been told all that stuff by the manager and the Homeland Security about what to tell your customers' - and to my amazement, the young woman came right out and said yes she'd been through all that, then whispered to me across the counter, 'but we're not supposed to talk about it - I could lose my job.'" Lesson to learn: don't depend on getting access to a safety deposit box. If you must use one, only keep documents in it -- no valuables. Obviously the feds plan on confiscating gold again!

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Guest Riser

the following is probably paranoid nonsense but it makes you wonder about how safe the likes of goldmoney are (or anything bar keeping it under the bed!).

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/s.../2006/0201.html

HOMELAND SECURITY WILL CONTROL SAFE DEPOSIT BOXES IN A CRISIS

Here could be the spark :ph34r:

Money and Markets Saturday, February 4, 2006

Prepare Now for the

Following Three Scenarios

Don’t underestimate Iran. It has over 513,000 troops, another 350,000 in reserves, and over 3,000 missiles already aimed at the U.S. and Israeli targets. It is also the OPEC member controlling the second largest share of the world’s oil, second only to Saudi Arabia.

Here are three possible ways the scenario could unfold ...

Scenario #1: Diplomacy continues for a while longer, with more bickering and threats among Iran, the U.S., Israel and Europe. The UN issues economic sanctions and warnings after exhausting diplomacy. But it fails to achieve the desired results.

Ultimately, either Israel or the U.S. makes the first military strike.

Scenario #2: Much like Scenario #1, with one critical addition: Come March, Iran opens its new oil exchange, the Iranian Oil Burse for trading its oil. But it takes payment strictly in euros and other currencies, rejecting the U.S. dollar.

A major decline in the dollar threatens to send our economy into turmoil, even while inflation continues to rise.

The U.S. decides to make a strike. The aim: Derail the trading of oil in other currencies, and put the kibosh on the Iranian Oil Burse.

Scenario #3: In response to UN sanctions, Iran shuts down its oil production and exports. A U.S. or Israeli initiated strike begins almost immediately thereafter.

Hard to believe? I don’t think so. No matter how you slice it, the likelihood of war with Iran this year is high. And whether it happens sooner or later, the anticipation of this disastrous conflict will likely send oil prices through the roof starting right now.

Iran’s First Weapon of Choice: Oil

All Iran needs to do is cut off its oil supplies to the West, and it can create financial turmoil the likes of which you have not seen in decades. And it could happen so fast it would make your head spin.

Iran exports 2.5 million barrels of oil per day. If Iran throws the “off” switch — the price of oil will explode to $100, perhaps even higher.

Gasoline could soar to $5.00 a gallon ... even $6.00.

Interest rates would shoot up. Real estate prices would crash. The U.S. economy would be shell shocked.

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Hopefully China and Russia will find a way to bribe the Iranians into saving face for Bush: if not, we're probably deeply screwed.

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I really don't understand this confrontation. To me it looks gratuitous - what I cannot work out is the motivations of the Americans. Granted the general idea of Iran having an atomic bomb appears undesirable, but are they really all that close to it? A civil nuclear programme is quite different from a military one anyway, the one does not inevitably go with the other. The brashness of the way the US/UK are talking up this crisis appears foolish to me. They could surely apply more leverage behind closed doors.

It is easy to talk about Iran switching off the oil, but it is also rather failing to grasp that Iran derives enormous wealth from that 2.5mb/d ($55Bn per year at $60 per barrel). It isn't in anybody's interest for that oil to get switched off, so why go looking for a fight? It's daft. Unless the US government really thinks it can invade and occupy Iran, if so they are completely crazy.

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I agree, Malco. It all seems rather odd.

Perhaps they are using this to distract attention from something else.

Plato's maxim was that governments need an enemy. Perhaps they are creating one, or reminding people of one, for later use - for example when their economies go tits up.

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The Iranians are almost certainly a long way from a viable bomb: maybe if they could enrich uranium they could make a really basic and inefficient gun bomb, but there's no way I can see that they'll have anything that could be delivered by aircraft or missile for years. The only reason I can see why Bush would be picking a fight with them is because they're going to start selling oil in Euros.... if that's not the case, then Bush truly is insane.

Edited by MarkG

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I agree, Malco. It all seems rather odd.

Perhaps they are using this to distract attention from something else.

Plato's maxim was that governments need an enemy. Perhaps they are creating one, or reminding people of one, for later use - for example when their economies go tits up.

Yep agree.

Governments maintain solidarity and loyalty form their citizens when there is a common enemy. For a while it was Germany...then the cold war...now it's the 'axis of evil'

The government can get away with almost anything if it's citizens feel they are under threat.

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Guest Bart of Darkness
The government can get away with almost anything if it's citizens feel they are under threat.
"Of course the people don't want war. But after all, it's the leaders of the country who determine the policy, and it's always a simple matter to drag the people along whether it's a democracy, a fascist dictatorship, or a parliament, or a communist dictatorship. Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism, and exposing the country to greater danger."

-- Herman Goering at the Nuremberg trials

`Governments change; the lies stay the same.' - James Bond

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The Iranians are almost certainly a long way from a viable bomb: maybe if they could enrich uranium they could make a really basic and inefficient gun bomb, but there's no way I can see that they'll have anything that could be delivered by aircraft or missile for years. The only reason I can see why Bush would be picking a fight with them is because they're going to start selling oil in Euros.... if that's not the case, then Bush truly is insane.

The worry is that North Korea is selling missile technology to Iran. There was a lot of worry about North Korea about 5 years ago which ended when they lauched a satellite. A satelite means ICBM e.g. 5-10K range.

North Korea already has the bomb (not formally disclosed same as Israel). Iran has very high uranium deposits which would've gone to North Korea and more importantly North Korea has a massive energy problem (with little to sell to buy oil) so have pushed for nuclear power.

Normally the missle technology is harder to gain than the nuclear technology (think Indian/Pakistan who still have a 1-2,000 KM limit) but in Iran's case they can get the missile technology and just need the nukes.

North korea with the bomb is bad (that's why the NMD was started and then offered to Russia in exchange for them not kicking off about it). But Iran having the bomb is much much worse as it's influences global power so much. Even if america completely out powers them in a nuclear sense they are a centre for Islam (think about it).

The world is turning into a scary place but this is normal. think about when the USSR detonated an A-Bomb and later a H-bomb. This didn't lead to war so don't start building a bomb shelter quite yet.

I've always found nuclear weapons interesting so I've had an interest for a some years but trust me the biggest event in the last 40 years was the launching by North Korea of a satellite.

Just my 2 cents worth,

Andrew

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I can remember going to sleep as a teenager terrified at the thought of Russia and the US going to nuclear war.

But there is something more terrifying about the idea of nuclear weapons in the hands of people who are so feverishly passionate and extreme in their hatred of the West, in particular us and the US, and so committed to taking action to vent their anger.

When you see the reaction to Rushdie or a mere newspaper cartoon in Denmark, what reaction is something bigger going to provoke?

Say a high-profile, a mainstream comedian mocks Islam overtly and the routine goes global? Or Jackass or a home movie maker inserts fart noises as people kneel to pray in a Mosque and the video gets circulated round the web? Or Hollywood makes a blockbuster comedy satirizing some aspect of the Muslim world (and there must be one coming sooner or later, if it can get through the net it'd earn somebody big bucks, even if it was mediocre - imagine the publicity it'd get). If something like this happened - and the more tensions rise, the more likely it is to - judging by the previous reactions, hell and mayhem and the mob mentaliy on an international level could potentially ensue.

Edited by Frizzers

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I can remember going to sleep as a teenager terrified at the thought of Russia and the US going to nuclear war.

But there is something more terrifying about the idea of nuclear weapons in the hands of people who are so feverishly passionate and extreme in their hatred of the West, in particular us and the US, and so committed to taking action to vent their anger.

Pakistan's had then for a few years now. Don't really know why they were allowed to get away with it. All we need is an islamic revolution there and there could be trouble.

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When you see the reaction to Rushdie or a mere newspaper cartoon in Denmark, what reaction is something bigger going to provoke?

We have nukes too. If they attack us, Iran will be radioactive glass.

Generally speaking, national leaders don't like to commit suicide. Personally I'm more worried about Bush starting a nuclear war than the Iranians, since Bush is quite possibly insane and no longer has anything much to lose: he'll be out in two years unless he bans elections.

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I've always found nuclear weapons interesting so I've had an interest for a some years but trust me the biggest event in the last 40 years was the launching by North Korea of a satellite.

The Cuban Missile Crisis was now 43 years ago, it is true. Then again, the Russians developing sub-launched ICBMs is a contender, or the invasion of Afghanistan, or the fall of the Berlin Wall, or 9/11, or....

Or Hollywood makes a blockbuster comedy satirizing some aspect of the Muslim world (and there must be one coming sooner or later, if it can get through the net it'd earn somebody big bucks, even if it was mediocre - imagine the publicity it'd get).

Been done, back in the early '90s. It was called "True Lies" with Arnie and Jamie-Lee Curtis, inter alia. Didn't start a war then. I don't think it's the religion as such, it's the juxtaposition of our easy, licentious "modern" democratic cultures with those hardly up to the medieval era by our standards. Most Middle Eastern countries are backward beyond belief, despite a veneer of oil technology. Some good ideas in crime and punishment, it must be said....

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Generally speaking, national leaders don't like to commit suicide. Personally I'm more worried about Bush starting a nuclear war than the Iranians, since Bush is quite possibly insane and no longer has anything much to lose: he'll be out in two years unless he bans elections.

should that be western leaders?

Seems theres plenty willing to die for their cause in many middle eastern countries - it seems a slightly different mindset! -

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should that be western leaders?

Uh, no. As I said, Bush is far more likely to commit his country to a suicidal war than the leaders of Iran: he has nothing to lose.

Seems theres plenty willing to die for their cause in many middle eastern countries - it seems a slightly different mindset!

Hint: the leaders almost always encourage _other people_ to die for the cause... it's not as though bin Laden was on the 9/11 flights, or Saddam Hussein was leading his troops against the Americans from the front.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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