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9 minutes ago, Orb said:

He looks like a plonker, like a bit of a Rodney, in the 2nd story. Plus, the article looks like an advert for help-to-buy.  

Both in peak Potemkin economy non-jobs. 24 months after the Fed lets this mother of all bubbles blow that house will be 59k and they will be on the dole.  Seen this before. This time it will be much worse. Feel sorry for them but I suppose they have nothing to lose. It'll be a bank and taxpayer problem. 

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23 minutes ago, Orb said:

He looks like a plonker, like a bit of a Rodney, in the 2nd story. Plus, the article looks like an advert for help-to-buy.  

The English girls just roll their eyes, sigh, think "all that hard work" , light up a fag, flick the channels of Sky TV, pick up their six month old sprog for a feed in their free council flat and think. Oh, daddy will be visiting tonight so mummy can have some rumpy pumpy and a takeaway curry. 

 

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6 minutes ago, markyh said:

The English girls just roll their eyes, sigh, think "all that hard work" , light up a fag, flick the channels of Sky TV, pick up their six month old sprog for a feed in their free council flat and think. Oh, daddy will be visiting tonight so mummy can have some rumpy pumpy and a takeaway curry. 

 

Around 10% of young people are Neets - not in education, employment or training.  The other 90% are working to earn money the majority of which they will hand over to the established wealthy in return for shelter.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/unemployment/bulletins/youngpeoplenotineducationemploymentortrainingneet/august2019

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21 minutes ago, Wayward said:

Around 10% of young people are Neets - not in education, employment or training.  The other 90% are working to earn money the majority of which they will hand over to the established wealthy in return for shelter.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/unemployment/bulletins/youngpeoplenotineducationemploymentortrainingneet/august2019

11.4% are Neets but what's more interesting I think is that only 41.6% of Neets "were looking for, and available for, work". The rest (462,000) are "economically inactive".   

Either resigned to not getting a job, drug dealing, pregnant, or planning on going to college but leaving it to the last minute. 

Some parents have turned into "mini-landlords" collecting large amounts of "board and lodge" from their kids. gotta fund the tax credit shortfall somehow but charging full market rent for the room + food on top is excessive especially if it's paid off. 

 

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1 hour ago, hughjass said:

Sofa surfing at their friend expense to save an 11k deposit! 

I'd imagine they will be knackered when they have to start repaying that £45k htb loan.  

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10 minutes ago, regprentice said:

Sofa surfing at their friend expense to save an 11k deposit! 

I'd imagine they will be knackered when they have to start repaying that £45k htb loan.  

By then they'll each be on a whopping £22k though. 

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4 hours ago, hughjass said:

A  look on houseprices.io. Theyve paid about double the going rated.

Come 5 years, tjat htb lump will be on them.

They are fukked, royally. Esp. If she gets knocked up.

Only positive is they are young enough to go bust n start again.

Hes punching waaaaaay above his wieght ... and bowlcut.

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17 minutes ago, spyguy said:

A  look on houseprices.io. Theyve paid about double the going rated.

Come 5 years, tjat htb lump will be on them.

They are fukked, royally. Esp. If she gets knocked up.

Only positive is they are young enough to go bust n start again.

Hes punching waaaaaay above his wieght ... and bowlcut.

Its annoying but it may happen to go up 20% in 5years. Around my area(essex) the 2013/14 newbuilds are 20% more than what they paid.

Edited by Gush
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3 minutes ago, Gush said:

Its annoying but it may happen to go up 20% in 5years. Around my area(essex) the 2013/14 newbuilds are 20% more than what they paid.

Have a look at what nearby non newbuilds are going for.

All htb shit is about 50% overpriced.

The 25% loan wil bite htbers in the ****, hard.

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My take on Cleetus n Viktoria are - they are young.

In 5 years time, if they are still together, Id expect them to be starting a family.

Theyll drop one, low, income, going down to ~20k.

The mortgage then becomes 11x the single income.

Cleetus would struggle to pay  the HTB 'freeby' on his own - there are a lot more costs than mortgage payments.

When they come to sell after 5 years, when the HTB starts destroying their finances, assuming IRS have not gone up much, theyll face a ~6% SVR as they wont be able to remortgage.

220k@ 6% = 14k/year. Thats one entire income just on the interest.

They are doomed.

 

 

 

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On 31/01/2020 at 17:06, markyh said:

The English girls just roll their eyes, sigh, think "all that hard work" , light up a fag, flick the channels of Sky TV, pick up their six month old sprog for a feed in their free council flat and think. Oh, daddy will be visiting tonight so mummy can have some rumpy pumpy and a takeaway curry. 

 

Really?

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Thing is how long will they able be able to string it out with credit cards and overdrafts and loans, could probably string it out for a full 10 years. then start again after going bust with young children. 

might even be able to restructure all the personal loans etc, for an additional 5 years.

maybe they will sell up in 15 years time utterly bust, but find their house has gone up 30-40% and bails them out with a deposit for their next house and clear their debts, 

of course by then they will feel flush, no debt and a free deposit, time for an upgrade on a bigger house. 

and so it continues on and on. the real issue happens at retirement, which they will never do. put then you just go sick, etc. 

I think their story is pretty typical of a lot of young buyers on HTB. 

there is enough of them that there will be a massive demand for ‘help to buy second steppers’ causing a two teir market 

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44 minutes ago, jiltedjen said:

there is enough of them that there will be a massive demand for ‘help to buy second steppers’ causing a two teir market 

This could be the killer in terms of keeping prices high.  At the moment I think (not sure) you can somehow "trade in" your too-small HTB 2-bed house for the next step up the Ponzi.

The market will adapt to the needs of the buyers.  If those needs change, the rules of the Ponzi will change.

Those of us who choose (or who cannot) get in on the Ponzi are probably the ones that are doomed, not these fools.

Unfortunately.

Edited by stop_the_craziness
spelling
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2 hours ago, jiltedjen said:

maybe they will sell up in 15 years time utterly bust, but find their house has gone up 30-40% and bails them out with a deposit for their next house and clear their debts, 

So in this scenario, even though 15 years into their own careers they wouldn't have the cash flow to service the mortgage, you think they would be able to find a buyer 15 years younger than them who would be able to service a mortgage 30-40% bigger than theirs?

Seems like a fantasy to me, basically a miniature version of Fungus expecting a consortium of Arabs/Russian/Chinese to buy him out any day now.

Edited by Dorkins
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£5665 to £8344 a year jump in year 5. Not too dramatic but if one of them loses their job or leaves to have children then it's not an insignificant increase to occur suddenly.  Hopefully they are sensible and save enough money that they can safely refinance at the same LTV, Or pay the equity loan off at a discount when the market crashes. 

Year  Monthly mortgage HTB interest/fees monthly
1 £471.12   £1.00
2 £471.12   £1.00
3 £471.12   £1.00
4 £471.12   £1.00
5 £471.12   £1.00
6 £688.97   £77.04
7 £688.97   £81.13
8 £688.97   £85.22
9 £688.97   £89.30
10 £688.97   £94.14
       
Assumes      
1.59% initial rate. (5 year fix)    
4.24% SVR (Base + 3.49%)  
5% yearly RPI in years 5-10 (HTB's numbers not mine)
40 year repayment, fees not rolled into balance
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On 31/01/2020 at 20:26, Gush said:

Its annoying but it may happen to go up 20% in 5years. Around my area(essex) the 2013/14 newbuilds are 20% more than what they paid.

Shows a slightly different curve to the northern towns i monitir - slowly doubles from 2000 to 2006, then stays there for 14 years.

https://www.home.co.uk/guides/house_prices_report.htm?location=wednesbury&all=1

Sales still v low since 2008.

They need prices to rise 25% to bail them out of LTV.

Unlikely to happen.

Most likely is theyll be down at least 30%

If the htb is like all new build estates ive been to in the last 10 years then therell be about 30% social housing.

Nice for LA to get rid of the scum in the LA estates.

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  • 419 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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