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Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?


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7 minutes ago, nightowl said:

Has anyone else noticed this ... the news coverage has switched from the fast rises in cases each day (and yes a few mentions of the exponential word too) to reporting its over 3K again so I thought I would have a look at the data.  And behold there's a reason why the phrasing has changed and its because its leveled off:

image.png.90916e3dcdb3ad0b8ec85311d2c5f5ac.png

I know its early days to say this 'mini event' is over although by the same argument its also early days to panic and proclaim the doom too, but its safe to say the 6 rule wont have influenced this.

PS. You may note I have truncated the Worldometer graph to over emphasise this rise out of context, as is traditional!

Yes, this is why I previously posted about a "step change" in the number of cases. It's very much as if there was sone one off change, possibly in the testing methodology. I think Arpeggio (?) suggested it might be a change in the number of cycles, but could not find any evidence of that.

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8 minutes ago, nightowl said:

Has anyone else noticed this ... the news coverage has switched from the fast rises in cases each day (and yes a few mentions of the exponential word too) to reporting its over 3K again so I thought I would have a look at the data.  And behold there's a reason why the phrasing has changed and its because its leveled off:

image.png.90916e3dcdb3ad0b8ec85311d2c5f5ac.png

I know its early days to say this 'mini event' is over although by the same argument its also early days to panic and proclaim the doom too, but its safe to say the 6 rule wont have influenced this.

PS. You may note I have truncated the Worldometer graph to over emphasise this rise out of context, as is traditional!

You should have cut off early Aug and added a nice straight line trending to infinity

 

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5 hours ago, smash said:

I'm dubious about your idea of some grand strategy on the basis that that implies a conscious agency from the Government that I simply don't believe exists.

The very fact that ONS survey actually

 

5 hours ago, smash said:

Whats the right thing to do? I go along with wearing a mask in shops etc. but trying to book a test in the absence of symptoms, dunno about that, thats the wrong thing to do surely?

The persons in that survey don't book a test.  They are selected by the survey organisers to be tested.  It could happen to you.

 

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8 minutes ago, captainb said:

You should have cut off early Aug and added a nice straight line trending to infinity

 

Consider it done...to Infinty and Beyond! and if I had the patience I would draw an exponential rise:

image.png.15cedbcca34612fb35ae22a58950f73b.png

8 minutes ago, Timm said:

Yes, this is why I previously posted about a "step change" in the number of cases. It's very much as if there was sone one off change, possibly in the testing methodology. I think Arpeggio (?) suggested it might be a change in the number of cycles, but could not find any evidence of that.

Ah yes, I do remember that discussion coming now and a sustained step up would indicated a testing and/or reporting issue rather than an actual event....we all remember the overcount without the 28 day rule was casuing a 5K distortion to number so the precident for these 'quirks' to happen.

Edited by nightowl
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2 hours ago, Grayphil said:

There is a Chinese doctor, who is a whistleblower. She is saying that she has all the evidence that the disease was engineered 100% in China.. 

No idea if she is just trying to make a bit of cash, but it looks quite the story atm

Silicon Valley already on the case - she's been suspended on Twitter and apparently the main /r/coronavirus forum on Reddit is censoring any discussion of the paper she published.

(edit, paper is here:  https://zenodo.org/record/4028830#.X19xByXZglR )

Edited by Sour Mash
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12 minutes ago, Sour Mash said:

Silicon Valley already on the case - she's been suspended on Twitter and apparently the main /r/coronavirus forum on Reddit is censoring any discussion of the paper she published.

(edit, paper is here:  https://zenodo.org/record/4028830#.X19xByXZglR )

Seems to require the US and Europe to be in on the scam with China? As both the former published the assessments that it was natural.

This paper also describes how to create such an artificial virus in the laboratory, which seems a pretty good reason to not allow the paper to be published - rather than a cover up.

 

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1 hour ago, MancTom said:

Seems to require the US and Europe to be in on the scam with China? As both the former published the assessments that it was natural.

Only certain factions of those countries.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/canadian-scientist-sent-deadly-viruses-to-wuhan-lab-months-before-rcmp-asked-to-investigate-1.5609582

"Newly-released access-to-information documents reveal details about a shipment of deadly pathogens last year from Canada's National Microbiology Lab to China — confirming for the first time who sent them, what exactly was shipped, and where it went."

Nipah virus will f*8king kill you. It will f**king kill a lot of f*8king people. 75% death rate. Who knows what Bill Gates refers to with his "Pandemic 2". It was both him and Dr. Fauci who predicted this one, somehow, as if by magic, without being asked for any scientific evidence of such a prediction by the mainstream.

I've been weighing this in my head for months, will the "mother nature" apparent law of inverse proportion that applies to sound frequency vs range or Radio Frequency vs range, also apply to virus deadliness vs range.

If it doesn't, things are going to get biblical (as in what is written in the book).

Edited by Arpeggio
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3 hours ago, Timm said:

Yes, this is why I previously posted about a "step change" in the number of cases. It's very much as if there was sone one off change, possibly in the testing methodology.

The number of cases metric is useless now the labs are overloaded, which is shocking given the time to prepare they have had.

Hospitalized and deaths are the numbers to track now.

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13 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

The fresh air will come in through a heat recovery unit. We put four in (sounds daft but much cheaper than 1 big one and lots of ducting)when we refurbed the house about 3yrs ago. Their claimed efficiency is 85%, so you can actually up the ventilation rate while still reducing your bills. 

Since we bought our they have got better with the latest claiming 90-95% efficiency.    

 Good to see heat reclaim technology in domestics now, but I'd be cautious about this   85-95% max efficiency number,  rather like heat pumps their efficiency is very dependent upon the conditions, with real world more normal everyday conditions and the efficiency plummets.  I did it myself when selling it, increase extract relative humidity % a touch and make a big temperature difference, i.e.   - 10 degrees in,  21 degrees out, 55% rh and on larger commercial systems we could get well over 50% heat reclaim efficiency.

   

9 hours ago, The Preacherman said:

There is no need to put mechanical ventilation in the requirements can be met using passive ventilation through air bricks, updrafts and window trickle vents. 

 Draughts increase the feeling of being cold by increasing the wind chill effect,  so makes a disproportionate difference to how warm it feels.  Aircon works best in a sealed building, hence revolving doors (airtight)and non opening windows.

 I slightly overdid it when I fitted triple glazing without a trickle vent in my living room, relying on an open fireplace for ventilation. (within building regs)

 The downstairs floor is thermal/acoustic insulated and I went to a lot of efforts to reduce leaks and draughts everywhere.  Reftrofitting a trickle vent proved neccessary and makes quite a difference.  I wanted to install the windows cold-bridge free (no steel fixings into wall)  but was struggling to find a method within regs. 

 Energy efficient houses much easier when done from the design stage.

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48 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

The number of cases metric is useless now the labs are overloaded, which is shocking given the time to prepare they have had.

Hospitalized and deaths are the numbers to track now.

True.

Admissions, and patients on ventilators are ticking up, but slowly on a very gentle curve (for now)

The number of deaths is so low that any trend seems to be lost in the noise.

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2 hours ago, Sour Mash said:

Silicon Valley already on the case - she's been suspended on Twitter and apparently the main /r/coronavirus forum on Reddit is censoring any discussion of the paper she published.

(edit, paper is here:  https://zenodo.org/record/4028830#.X19xByXZglR )

 "The alternative theory that the virus may have come from a research laboratory is, however, strictly censored on peer-reviewed scientific journals. Nonetheless, SARS-CoV-2 shows biological characteristics that are inconsistent with a naturally occurring, zoonotic virus. In this report, we describe the genomic, structural, medical, and literature evidence, which, when considered together, strongly contradicts the natural origin theory..."

 The difficulty here is it is easy to post a link, but almost impossible for anyone without very in-depth understanding of this to be able to analyse the evidence. Some accidental release of bio-engineered materials not unthinkable to me -almost a certainty at some time in our future.

 NASA almost created their own moon landing hoax just by failing to even address the daft questions (why no stars, why is the flag flying, how did the crew survive radiation etc..) but by dismissing the goofy questions rather than answering them it created a perfect environment for conspiracy theorists.  So it is good to discuss and I'm not eliminating any ideas about the source of this.

  "when you have eliminated  the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth"    Sherlock Holmes   

 

1 hour ago, Arpeggio said:

I've been weighing this in my head for months, will the "mother nature" apparent law of inverse proportion that applies to sound frequency vs range or Radio Frequency vs range, also apply to virus deadliness vs range.

If it doesn't, things are going to get biblical (as in what is written in the book).

 Inverse square law in 2d, or inverse cube in 3d -otherwise known as social distancing and face covering, something so obvious yet still causes so much controversy.  

 Biblical? perhaps, I always thought serious  war/plague/ famine/environmentals  that hardly any generation in the history of mankind has dodged was almost a certainty for our generation sooner or later -for precisely the reason that nothing really has big has happened yet for our post war generation.

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1 hour ago, Megadebt said:

I slightly overdid it when I fitted triple glazing without a trickle vent in my living room, relying on an open fireplace for ventilation. (within building regs).

You've broken the building regs and put yourself at risk if you haven't provided a separate air supply for the fire. 

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45 minutes ago, Timm said:

True.

Admissions, and patients on ventilators are ticking up, but slowly on a very gentle curve (for now)

The number of deaths is so low that any trend seems to be lost in the noise.

The hospital admissions and ICU beds seem to be following the upturn in cases which is not a steep slope particularly compared to other countries with recent upturns.

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1 minute ago, ticket2ride said:

How long till 5k daily cases? Place your bets.

As others have mentioned we seem have plateaued at 3K cases per day. The constraint of test at 200K par day may be a reason for the plateau but if the virus is spreading rapidly the percentage of positive cases should still be going up. 

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Just now, The Preacherman said:

You've broken the building regs and put yourself at risk if you haven't provided a separate air supply for the fire. 

There is also an airbrick under the stairs and two other vented windows on the ground floor, open flame 'coal' gas fire was fitted and signed off within regs.  The chimney updraft actually increases ventilation quite a lot when fire is in use.  

 Point is that I took it so far and maybe overdid it and it was interesting the difference adding a top vent made in the summer, whilst the triple glazing reduces solar gain keeping the inside cool.   

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4 minutes ago, Megadebt said:

There is also an airbrick under the stairs and two other vented windows on the ground floor, open flame 'coal' gas fire was fitted and signed off within regs.  The chimney updraft actually increases ventilation quite a lot when fire is in use.  

 Point is that I took it so far and maybe overdid it and it was interesting the difference adding a top vent made in the summer, whilst the triple glazing reduces solar gain keeping the inside cool.   

People are scared of adding vents because of draughts. However, well designed trickle vents are not draughty and enable air in living spaces to be kept fresh. 

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14 minutes ago, The Preacherman said:

As others have mentioned we seem have plateaued at 3K cases per day. The constraint of test at 200K par day may be a reason for the plateau but if the virus is spreading rapidly the percentage of positive cases should still be going up. 

4k today

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NHS labs go unused as coronavirus tests stuck in outsourcing backlog

Quote

Ministers were under pressure today to rethink the system of “outsourcing” for processing coronavirus tests as spare capacity in NHS laboratories went unused.

The chaos facing people trying to get Covid checks is understood to be a consequence of log-jams in the Lighthouse Laboratories set up by the Government at arms-length from the NHS to process swabs from drive-through and walk-in testing centres.

 

There are seven Lighthouse labs, including in Milton Keynes and Cambridge, and an eighth is due to open at the end of the month near Loughborough.

 

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5 hours ago, nightowl said:

Has anyone else noticed this ... the news coverage has switched from the fast rises in cases each day (and yes a few mentions of the exponential word too) to reporting its over 3K again so I thought I would have a look at the data.  And behold there's a reason why the phrasing has changed and its because its leveled off:

image.png.90916e3dcdb3ad0b8ec85311d2c5f5ac.png

I know its early days to say this 'mini event' is over although by the same argument its also early days to panic and proclaim the doom too, but its safe to say the 6 rule wont have influenced this.

PS. You may note I have truncated the Worldometer graph to over emphasise this rise out of context, as is traditional!

What a surprise it levels out when they reach capacity.

Its a false positive story. The labs can only pump out so many false positives.

I think the country knows it cant afford to lockdown again, maybe the Govt has figured it out and is teyi g to restrict tests?

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6 hours ago, This time said:

Too many people discount this. I've got a mystery disease which I'd swear was long covid going by the description except I've had it for at least 15 years (I think it's sarcoidosis or something autoimmune). At my absolute worst I could barely get out of bed for a year, at my absolute best I can only manage very part time work. Every new flare or symptom requires a battery of tests and specialists because it's a bad idea to ignore possible symptoms of fatal diseases like cancer even if it wasn't the last five times and actually, maybe whatever I do have is fatal it's just taking its time killing me.

Replicate that over even a small percentage of covid cases and it will be a massive drain in society.

I'm not pretending that it doesn't exist, but I think the percentage of people who will try to milk the system, by faking this new long covid illness will outweigh the legitimate sick. 

If people don't get the right nutrition, excercise, sunlight, fresh air and social contact.. Life will seem tough miserable and you won't want to get out of bed. 

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Just now, Grayphil said:

I'm not pretending that it doesn't exist, but I think the percentage of people who will try to milk the system, by faking this new long covid illness will outweigh the legitimate sick. 

If people don't get the right nutrition, excercise, sunlight, fresh air and social contact.. Life will seem tough miserable and you won't want to get out of bed. 

Trust me, I really wanted to get out of bed - it wasn't depression. 

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