Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
LetsBuild

Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

Recommended Posts

12 hours ago, kzb said:

As a middle-aged person the risk to my life from influenza is minimal.  I don't fear death from flu (perhaps wrongly). 

"It's not that I'm afraid to die, I just don't want to be there when it happens!"

- Woody Allen

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

Talking to two people at global multinationals over the past couple of days. One has had a trip cancelled. The other is under a non essential travel ban. Most big businesses are taking, or in the process of taking action.

Yeah, we were told yesterday that there's no non-essential business travel from now on and no-one's allowed back to work for two weeks if they've been in an area which had significant infections, regardless of whether it was a business trip or holiday.

Not that we make a habit of non-essential business travel, but I'd guess anything which can be done remotely will now be done remotely. And trips which can be delayed will be delayed.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

I don't think warm weather seems to make too much difference given Singapore is always warm.

Unless things have changed in the last couple of days, Singapore has had relatively few cases and seems to have it under control.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
50 minutes ago, MarkG said:

Unless things have changed in the last couple of days, Singapore has had relatively few cases and seems to have it under control.

More because it is small.

The disease is just as communicable.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

More because it is small.

The disease is just as communicable.

Singapore's population density is 50% higher than London's. It should be an ideal place for this disease to spread.

So far they have just over a hundred confirmed cases, eighty or so recovered, and no deaths. The rate of increase in confirmed cases is low and about the same as the rate of increase in recoveries.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, kzb said:

Does ANYONE die of flu, per se? Or do they die of secondary infections?  People ARE dying from covid-19 directly. Also how many under age 70 die as a result of flu?

I think both Flu and covid can kill via both primary and secondary routes.

1918 pandemic, Cytokine storms

Covid-19, routine prescription of antibiotics for more serious cases. This being an attempt to stop secondary infections taking hold, rather than anything to do with covid itself.

Edited by Chunketh
correction

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, slawek said:

However, Whitty told MPs on Thursday morning that closing schools may only have “a marginal effect” on the spread of Covid-19, because children are not badly
affected by it."

I’m perplexed by some of his statements, this super expert, Whitty. Another one was that the virus could survive 72 hours when studies and all advice report that it can survive nine days,

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Grayphil said:

Thanks, I work on one.. Im on one right now.. Ur a tosser

He’s a lucky tosser not to be stuck at sea in yet another plague ship, isn’t he?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, Peter Hun said:

He’s a lucky tosser not to be stuck at sea in yet another plague ship, isn’t he?

Plague ship ffs, layoff the daily mail! 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, MarkG said:

Singapore's population density is 50% higher than London's. It should be an ideal place for this disease to spread.

So far they have just over a hundred confirmed cases, eighty or so recovered, and no deaths. The rate of increase in confirmed cases is low and about the same as the rate of increase in recoveries.

Singapore is a funny country. Compliant isn't quite the right word but its a very disciplined, hierarchical, rule obeying society. I used to work with a team in Singapore who frequently visited and they used to express genuine disgust at little social problems here like chewing gum stuck on the pavement. All sorts of mildly annoying things are illegal there including not flushing a public toilet. 

They are probably loving this.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Jolly Roger said:

So the casualty rate as a proportion of the population for World War One was 1.88-2.2 percent. Assuming worst case scenario could we be seeing the same kind of lasting demographic consequences

No

WWI (generally) killed lots of young fit men.

Covid-19 is (generally) killing elderly people who are already ill from something else.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Peter Hun said:

I’m perplexed by some of his statements, this super expert, Whitty. Another one was that the virus could survive 72 hours when studies and all advice report that it can survive nine days,

Well I’ll raise you 28 days at between 1C and 4C.

I have put this report (for the SARS Strain) up before: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2863430/

Based on this paper, whilst higher temperatures do accelerate  degeneration in a similar virus , it needs to get up to 40C to deactivate the virus in a few hours.

So I am not convinced a UK summer will do much to kill it off through heat. I am putting more hope in rising UV levels, but that may not work in the Tube.

Edited by Mikhail Liebenstein

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

No

WWI (generally) killed lots of young fit men.

Covid-19 is (generally) killing elderly people who are already ill from something else.

Indeed, though it might still lead to a baby boom if boomers die and hand down property assets.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Considering 1.25 million people die each year on the worlds roads and over 1,800 of those are in the UK, would somebody please explain what the flap is all about..._
 

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/848485/road-casualties-year-ending-june-2019.pdf

 

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/road-traffic-injuries

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, kzb said:

It's another reason I don't believe the 1% death rate.

Can only work out the death rate when have enough test rate.......how many have caught, spread and recovered without knowing?......how many have died with one medical problem not knowing that they might have also caught covid19 nobody knows because they were not tested.😉

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

much to kill it off through heat. I am putting more hope in rising UV levels, but that may not work in the Tube.

The heat on the tube will kill it 39c in summer

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, DiggerUK said:

Considering 1.25 million people die each year on the worlds roads and over 1,800 of those are in the UK, would somebody please explain what the flap is all about..._
 

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/848485/road-casualties-year-ending-june-2019.pdf

 

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/road-traffic-injuries

 

OK well here's a proposition.  I'm going to set a diary note for a year's time to find this post and update based on what we know then.
Perhaps you could do similar?  Too often things are dismissed (I've done it, I am trying not to) then nothing is heard from the dismisser when events turn out differently to what they (or indeed anyone) expected.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, DiggerUK said:

Considering 1.25 million people die each year on the worlds roads and over 1,800 of those are in the UK, would somebody please explain what the flap is all about..._
 

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/848485/road-casualties-year-ending-june-2019.pdf

 

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/road-traffic-injuries

 

Without hospital care this will kill 20%, which is 1 billon.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Peter Hun said:

I’m perplexed by some of his statements, this super expert, Whitty. Another one was that the virus could survive 72 hours when studies and all advice report that it can survive nine days,

He could be right, it all depends on the conditions and how you define the level at which you say amount of the virus left is not practically dangerous. He could be also right about his claim that the death rate 1% as it all depends on the population and the quality of healthcare. 

In general I think he tries to be very cautions not to create a panic.   

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, kzb said:

Does ANYONE die of flu, per se? Or do they die of secondary infections?  People ARE dying from covid-19 directly. Also how many under age 70 die as a result of flu?

It is increasingly clear that a lot of people in the establishment, and the general public, see nothing useful in every man woman and child being very clear on just how communicable and dangerous Covid-19 is.

This is reckless and patronising and is an unforgivable attempt to impose a cavalier approach to life on the cautious.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

TBF the Chinese got way past where we are now before realising there was a problem because they were first. We have the benefit of their experience.

Talking to two people at global multinationals over the past couple of days. One has had a trip cancelled. The other is under a non essential travel ban. Most big businesses are taking, or in the process of taking action.

 

My organisation has banned all travel. Any remaining meetings are to be video conference solely with no real room booked to discourage travel.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Peter Hun said:

I’m perplexed by some of his statements, this super expert, Whitty. Another one was that the virus could survive 72 hours when studies and all advice report that it can survive nine days,

Perhaps he's telling you what Boris and Dominic have told him to tell you.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
44 minutes ago, DiggerUK said:

Considering 1.25 million people die each year on the worlds roads and over 1,800 of those are in the UK, would somebody please explain what the flap is all about..._
 

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/848485/road-casualties-year-ending-june-2019.pdf

 

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/road-traffic-injuries

 

Because your whole lifetime risk of dying on the roads is about 0.2% in the UK.  And most of those are motorcyclists and cyclists, i.e. you have a choice.

Wheras 60% infection rate times 3.4% death rate is 1.4 million deaths in UK.  All in one hit.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 397 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.