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Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

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4 minutes ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

TBF the Chinese got way past where we are now before realising there was a problem because they were first. We have the benefit of their experience.

Talking to two people at global multinationals over the past couple of days. One has had a trip cancelled. The other is under a non essential travel ban. Most big businesses are taking, or in the process of taking action.

 

I work in further and higher education. I haven't seen any precautions at all despite covering a wide mix of 2nd generation immigrant middle and far Eastern as well as pan-european students. The students themselves might not have visited Italy or Iran lately, but the chances are high that they socially mix with people who have. I'm amazed there's no addressing of this issue. Of course with these kids being aged from 16 to their mid twenties then they might carry it whilst tolerating mild symptoms. 

Shutting down the institutions might not help as they'd result in the same kids hanging out elsewhere. Maybe the govt has accepted that there are some measures they simply can't apply.

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20 minutes ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

Most big businesses are taking, or in the process of taking action.

Businesses over about 200 people will have a Pandemic Business Continuity Plan.

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People with symptoms of Coronavirus who have travelled to areas like Switzerland, Austria and Monaco recently are being told that they can’t have the virus  by 111. My boss is currently sick, coughing and having sore lungs... he has been told it’s flu... I don’t believe their numbers now.

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4 minutes ago, Burbujista said:

People with symptoms of Coronavirus who have travelled to areas like Switzerland, Austria and Monaco recently are being told that they can’t have the virus  by 111. My boss is currently sick, coughing and having sore lungs... he has been told it’s flu... I don’t believe their numbers now.

I have some experience of this scenario too and see the same thing.

That's sort of supported by the official statistics that suggest the only significant vectors for transmission are from the big centres like Italy Iran and China. But I'm still not fully convinced.

I have a feeling that the NHS is keeping its powder dry at this stage.

Edited by Si1

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1 hour ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

This made me laugh out loud. With the absolute exception of an Antarctic cruise they don't appeal to me in the slightest.

To be scientific we chose a top end suite ,It was the shake down cruise for the harmony of the seas brand new ship - we had a two story suite ( good deals) so can’t be accused of going cheap 

in the suite lounge ( which to be fair was nice ) met people who had done 100 cruises and little star badges like a mc’d’s crew member must of been the thick end of £750k - wtf !!

Edited by GregBowman

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Hubby just came back from Asda.

He said they have hand gel , hand foam, and even hand gel aimed at children at the entrance of the store for shoppers' use.

He was waiting outside for someone, but he said, all the time he was there, not one person used any of it.

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From one of my local news sources:

 

https://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/news/18284210.coronavirus-latest-virus-bradford-uk/

 

Of the 25 new UK coronavirus cases announced today, 17 were diagnosed who had recently travelled from recognised countries or from recognised clusters which were under investigation.

Eight contracted the virus in the UK and it is not yet clear whether they contracted it directly or indirectly from an individual who had recently returned from abroad, according to the Department of Health.

Edited by Si1

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So a full third of today's new cases got it internally from an uncertain vector.

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1 hour ago, GregBowman said:

To be scientific we chose a top end suite ,It was the shake down cruise for the harmony of the seas brand new ship - we had a two story suite ( good deals) so can’t be accused of going cheap 

in the suite lounge ( which to be fair was nice ) met people who had done 100 cruises and little star badges like a mc’d’s crew member must of been the thick end of £750k - wtf !!

When Bloomberg can spunk 1/2 billion on a failed vanity project there must be plenty cashola around. 

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There are over 100 types of cold and flu virus and they evolve all of the time. If I were to focus one one particular strain and count the amount of people who feel ill enough to seek help and therefore get it detected vs how many of those people end up dying I'd get a relatively high death rate.

Up to 650,000 people worldwide die each year due to seasonal winter ’flu. If the seasonal flu has a death rate of 0.1% how on earth do they count the 99.9%? Surely a more accurate picture would be the death rate of those hospitalized by Corona Virus vs the death rate of those hospitalized by seasonal flu. One would suspect a closer figure between the two than the comparisons we are getting.

As an example:  https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

In the U.S. alone, the flu has caused an estimated 32 million illnesses, 310,000 hospitalizations and 18,000 deaths this season, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). 

Flu 5.8%

Another study of about 1,100 hospitalized (COVID-19) patients in China, published Feb. 28 in the New England Journal of Medicine, found that the overall death rate was slightly lower, around 1.4%.

My Corona 1.4%

(Also, China is the worlds largest consumer of tobacco, which doesn't help).

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9 minutes ago, Arpeggio said:

There are over 100 types of cold and flu virus and they evolve all of the time. If I were to focus one one particular strain and count the amount of people who feel ill enough to seek help and therefore get it detected vs how many of those people end up dying I'd get a relatively high death rate.

Up to 650,000 people worldwide die each year due to seasonal winter ’flu. If the seasonal flu has a death rate of 0.1% how on earth do they count the 99.9%? Surely a more accurate picture would be the death rate of those hospitalized by Corona Virus vs the death rate of those hospitalized by seasonal flu. One would suspect a closer figure between the two than the comparisons we are getting.

As an example:  https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

In the U.S. alone, the flu has caused an estimated 32 million illnesses, 310,000 hospitalizations and 18,000 deaths this season, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). 

Flu 5.8%

Another study of about 1,100 hospitalized (COVID-19) patients in China, published Feb. 28 in the New England Journal of Medicine, found that the overall death rate was slightly lower, around 1.4%.

My Corona 1.4%

(Also, China is the worlds largest consumer of tobacco, which doesn't help).

You are close to genius, seriously, you are wasting your talent whoever you are doing.

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27 minutes ago, rollover said:

You are close to genius, seriously, you are wasting your talent whoever you are doing.

Why don’t you either argue why comparing rates of deaths among those hospitalised is not a good idea, bring more information on that, or withhold typing pointless comments.

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1 minute ago, longgone said:

When Bloomberg can spunk 1/2 billion on a failed vanity project there must be plenty cashola around. 

He took flack off Biden for a crucial week or so while siphoning nearly as much support from Sanders as from Biden. His main goal was to try to stop Sanders, so it seems he got the result he wanted.

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2 hours ago, Si1 said:

I have some experience of this scenario too and see the same thing.

That's sort of supported by the official statistics that suggest the only significant vectors for transmission are from the big centres like Italy Iran and China. But I'm still not fully convinced.

I have a feeling that the NHS is keeping its powder dry at this stage.

That may have been true a few weeks ago but it isn't now

What powder, the NHS is currently running at near 100% capacity because of a relatively low rate of seasonal flu. Just today foreign newspapers have been running stories about just how little capacity, esp. IC beds and respirators, the UK has. 

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Is this guy serious? Schools are breeding ground for all kinds of germs. It is true the children are less affected by Covid but they are carries of the virus and we will bring it home infecting their families. The schools are hubs where the virus will spread most effectively.    

"The delay phase could involve some of the measures set out in the government’s coronavirus action plan on Tuesday, such as shutting schools, encouraging much greater homeworking and banning large gatherings such as sports and music events. However, Whitty told MPs on Thursday morning that closing schools may only have “a marginal effect” on the spread of Covid-19, because children are not badly
affected by it."

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1 hour ago, Kosmin said:

He took flack off Biden for a crucial week or so while siphoning nearly as much support from Sanders as from Biden. His main goal was to try to stop Sanders, so it seems he got the result he wanted.

Biden is much loved by the billionaires - he will change little and do even less. Assuming of course he and Bernie don't come down with COVID-19 given all their public contact at their age,

Would that make Tulsi Gabbard the de facto nominee - as everyone else has dropped out?

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1 hour ago, Arpeggio said:

Why don’t you either argue why comparing rates of deaths among those hospitalised is not a good idea, bring more information on that, or withhold typing pointless comments.

Does ANYONE die of flu, per se? Or do they die of secondary infections?  People ARE dying from covid-19 directly. Also how many under age 70 die as a result of flu?

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8 minutes ago, kzb said:

Does ANYONE die of flu, per se? Or do they die of secondary infections?  People ARE dying from covid-19 directly. Also how many under age 70 die as a result of flu?

My mother had complications from some radiotherapy treatment for cancer a few years ago. WIthin a few days in hospital - run down and not eating - she caught pneumonia.

Thanks to a persevering doctor who stuck a tube in her neck to feed her she miraculously survived and is now fit and healthy. But for that week she had pneumonia she almost never woke up and could barely be roused. 

How the NHS will cope with large numbers of elderly people in this situation with COVID-19 I really don't know!

Oddly my mother is probably one of the last living Registered fever nurses - a specialist nursing qualification dropped in the UK in the late 1960s - due to the rise of antibiotics etc - which focused on managing people with severe fevers and related illnesses. How many modern day nurses have specialist training in dealing with this? She is quite worried about this - because of what she learned all the way back then.

Edited by MARTINX9

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3 hours ago, moonriver said:

Hubby just came back from Asda.

He said they have hand gel , hand foam, and even hand gel aimed at children at the entrance of the store for shoppers' use.

He was waiting outside for someone, but he said, all the time he was there, not one person used any of it.

Zombies don't use sanitizer!

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6 hours ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

Chinese families are often extended, living in the same house.

If you have two older parents (80+) with underlying genetic conditions, plus one child that inherits those conditions, the likelyhood that it would wipe out a family of 4 gets much higher.

A bit of a stretch that one I'm afraid.

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So the casualty rate as a proportion of the population for World War One was 1.88-2.2 percent. Assuming worst case scenario could we be seeing the same kind of lasting demographic consequences? Granted the time scales are not the same.
I also wonder, health aside, what the law and order consequences will be. Police already saying they will prioritise crimes accordingly. London and a few cities already burned because a drug dealer was shot, could a lockdown or mass quarantine see similar rioting and looting as emergency services are diverted? If you dont feel vulnerable to the disease and want a new pair of trainers then you might not need much of an excuse to cause trouble. Or maybe the sense of paranoia and tribal safety in a crisis causes violence in our more vibrant areas...

 

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20 hours ago, zugzwang said:

Another plague ship rocks up full of the dead and dying.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8077401/Grand-Princess-cruise-ship-held-California-amid-suspected-coronavirus-outbreak.html

Every one of these damn things should be towed into deep water, set on fire and used as target practice by the local navy.

Thanks, I work on one.. Im on one right now.. Ur a tosser

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14 hours ago, zugzwang said:

Sorry, m8. You're about to get on one, right?

Anyway, don't worry about putting me on ignore. I'm taking a sabbatical from HPC before the Covid war stories overwhelm the place.  Hunkering down near the Welsh border, probably as safe as anywhere to see it through.

Good luck to all.

Ud be safer at sea 

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