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Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

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4 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Ending the lockdown won't change that.

Cancer services are already up and running again but like everything else at a much reduced capacity because of the infection control measures that need to be taken.

Thousands require a dentist, an optician and a not so important haircut......we will all be taking a haircut after all this.😉

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50 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

Cummings....Response from No 10....... Whitewash :rolleyes:.

 

Quote

Matt Hancock says he backs any police action against Neil Ferguson(, but not Dom Cummings)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/06/neil-ferguson-right-to-resign-for-breaking-lockdown-rules-says-minister-coronavirus

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11 hours ago, captainb said:

At some point the lockdown causes more deaths than the virus. London has probably been at that point for weeks.

The current recovery plan for cancer treatments etc is 12/18 months. Wouldn't get cancer in the next year. Unfortunately 10,000s in london will and they can expect a long wait for a scan etc.

I see what you’re saying but I think the lockdown was introduced too late and things went from bad to worse thereafter.

Quote

 

12 May 2020

Introducing strict measures sooner may have prevented 80% of COVID-19 deaths

Tens of thousands of coronavirus deaths in Britain may have been avoided if officials imposed the lockdown a fortnight earlier, a study has claimed.

Daily Mail

 

Acting early proved to be very effective with fraction of infected people, deaths and overall costs.

Quote

 

5 May 2020

Why has eastern Europe suffered less from coronavirus than the west?

The comparison between western Europe on the one hand, and central and eastern Europe on the other, shows a difference in coronavirus rates that is too stark to ignore.

The most important reason, however, seems to be the early lockdown implemented by almost all countries in the region. While in Britain and other western European nations, public events and gatherings were still going on in the second and third weeks of March, in central and eastern Europe, governments saw what was happening in Italy and implemented rapid lockdowns.

Guardian

 

 

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Genuine question because there are many in this situation.....is it now alright to give young children to their grandparents to look after as childminders so as can go back to work?......😉

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2 minutes ago, winkie said:

Genuine question because there are many in this situation.....is it now alright to give young children to their grandparents to look after as childminders so as can go back to work?......😉

Is the love of your grandparents greater than the value of their house?

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3 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

Is the love of your grandparents greater than the value of their house?

What is that supposed to mean..... thousands have and do rely on members of their close family so that they can continue to work, many single parents included.....some actually do need their job to get by.

Lead by example, and create a precedent for those beneath them who can't afford quality childminders, when they have an excellent one on the doorstep.😉

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27 minutes ago, winkie said:

Genuine question because there are many in this situation.....is it now alright to give young children to their grandparents to look after as childminders so as can go back to work?......😉

As I understand it that would be against the current guidlines.

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4 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

As I understand it that would be against the current guidlines.

Is there a list of those who are exempt from the guidelines?.......or is it some know they can get away with it, whilst others can't?😉

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Just now, winkie said:

Is there a list of those who are exempt from the guidelines?.......or is it some know they can get away with it, whilst others can't?😉

The inner circle of the government  are except from rules that apply to the herd.

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1 hour ago, Peter Hun said:

On the spot fine of £1000, prosecution and bigger fine if required (deliberate, serious - e.g. booking a return flight or other travel during quarantine period).

He won't resign or quit, laws apply to the herd, not the elite.

It's poorly thought out and unworkable for obvious reasons but quarantine actually makes sense economically- no tourist in their right mind would be planning a visit to the UK this year so by making outbound travel impractical, the government can ensure that some of the furlough money is spent on putting the domestic tourism industry back on its feet, rather than being squandered abroad.

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4 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

The inner circle of the government  are except from rules that apply to the herd.

So if they except to get away with it.....why not be open and honest about it, make it clear that the rules do not apply to them.....then we will all know where we stand.😉

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Just now, winkie said:

So if they except to get away with it.....why not be open and honest about it, make it clear that the rules do not apply to them.....then we will all know where we stand.😉

I'm hoping that "Three Homes Jenrick" will be doing the daily government propaganda spot this afternoon. I'd love to see him trying to justify Cummings behaviour.

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1 hour ago, captainb said:

Not sure i agree. GP referrals to nearly all hospital services are down 75% or more in london. Are that many people really not getting early signs of potential cancer? or have they been petrified that CV19 is the only risk in town so not going to their GP etc?

 

That's another issue, it's nearly impossible to get a face to face GP consultation at the moment so what chance is there of picking up anything not completely obvious on your phone consultation.

The point about hospital services is that maintaining infection control is hugely time consuming and hugely reduces service capacity. Maybe by 40%, which is a problem for a NHS which has to run at near 100% capacity to keep up with normal demand.  The chances of the NHS catching up with the delayed cases and meeting ongoing demand are just about zero. 

This situation will remain until the virus is almost completely contained and GP/hospital infection control measures can be relaxed or we reach herd immunity.   So 2-3 months of continued lockdown or several years if we fail to contain the virus and have to rely on herd immunity.  

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1 hour ago, Peter Hun said:

Perhaps there is a slightly mitigating difference between making arrangements for the caring of a 4 year old child - yes lots of questions how and why as we know and why that couldn’t have been done in London  - and arranging a hook up with your married lover?

It’s all politics though - the Telegraph put lots of effort into checking out the personal life of Ferguson and the Guardian and Mirror into looking into Cummings activities. Had the Guardian gone after Ferguson and the Telegraph gone after Cummings it might have at least have suggested a lack of agenda!  

It was of course I think the Mail that reported on Jenrick multiple home trips! 

Do journos only check our wrongdoing now by people who don’t align with their paper’s politics?

Edited by MARTINX9

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21 minutes ago, thirdwave said:

It's poorly thought out and unworkable for obvious reasons but quarantine actually makes sense economically- no tourist in their right mind would be planning a visit to the UK this year so by making outbound travel impractical, the government can ensure that some of the furlough money is spent on putting the domestic tourism industry back on its feet, rather than being squandered abroad.

Most countries are doing 14 days, in the United States it also applies to inter-state travel. People in the UK are acting as if this is something only the UK is doing and that it will unfairly affect us, its not. Its the new normal.

If we want to join the COVID-free  club where the quarantine is lifted, we have to apply quarantine to eradicate it here and prevent it coming back. Eradication is the only thing that only countries will accept. Sweden is a pariah with its neighbours, its will not be allowed into the free travel area.

I'd guess that, as the government has said, summer is cancelled and the quarantine is here for, at least,  months.

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5 minutes ago, MARTINX9 said:

Do journos only check our wrongdoing now by people who don’t align with their paper’s politics?

Apparently Bojo knew about Cummings trip six weeks ago and journalist were asking the government every day about Cummings. So we also have to take into account the obvious cover up.

Cummings, like the other high profile violators, have to be sacked. His crime was far worst as he was actually infected and he knew it.

The fact that he and his colleagues got infected by ignoring their own guidelines was amusing, but travelling while infected is unforgivable.

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30 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

Apparently Bojo knew about Cummings trip six weeks ago and journalist were asking the government every day about Cummings. So we also have to take into account the obvious cover up.

Cummings, like the other high profile violators, have to be sacked. His crime was far worst as he was actually infected and he knew it.

The fact that he and his colleagues got infected by ignoring their own guidelines was amusing, but travelling while infected is unforgivable.

Aside from BJ covering it up, his wife intimated they were in London suffering from Covid.

It looks like he may have been caught because he was spotted by neighbours dancing to ABBA in the garden lol

However Close Source says he isn't bothered by the anger because its "more fake news from the Guardian" and tbf Kuenssberg has been OK about it.

Edit: correction the ABBA thing might have been a week after the Police had been round. Still funny though.

Edited by pig

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41 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

Most countries are doing 14 days, in the United States it also applies to inter-state travel. People in the UK are acting as if this is something only the UK is doing and that it will unfairly affect us, its not. Its the new normal.

If we want to join the COVID-free  club where the quarantine is lifted, we have to apply quarantine to eradicate it here and prevent it coming back. Eradication is the only thing that only countries will accept. Sweden is a pariah with its neighbours, its will not be allowed into the free travel area.

I'd guess that, as the government has said, summer is cancelled and the quarantine is here for, at least,  months.

My understanding is that many parts of the EU are planning to lift quarantine requirements ahead of the summer. Personally I think UK should maintain quarantine at least through September, if only to prevent discretionary overseas travel and prop up domestic tourism.

Edited by thirdwave

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All I can say is that the certain actions of the few those in authority, the leaders that  are there to direct and advise the citizens of the country to do the right thing will mean many more now will close their eyes and ears and carry on regardless doing what they think is best for them instead of what is best for all of us.....sorry state of affairs, it didn't have to be this way.

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22 minutes ago, pig said:

Kuenssberg

WFT has it got to do with her?

Government ministers think resigning would be correct and that the police should do their worst. Sometimes.

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1 minute ago, Bruce Banner said:

Cummings now saying "It's about doing the right thing".

So, you catch a paedoplile abusing a child, you drag him off, tie him to a tree and slit his throat..... The right thing?

Illegal and unnecessary journey across the country while infected? All part of his cull the herd strategy. Classic Dom.

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19 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

WFT has it got to do with her?

Government ministers think resigning would be correct and that the police should do their worst. Sometimes.

Lol - nothing. Everything.

She's trending somewhat negatively with the story because its perceived she reported it in an overly sympathetic way. 

Its tricky with her because of the flak she attracts. To be fair to her, in this I think she's still performing useful reporting because at the end of the day the question on everybody's lips is WTF?!?!

Personally I thought the pictures of Cummings running out of Downing St and away from the herd immunity scandal were funny enough without realising it was just Act Two in this tragi-comedy.

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  • 381 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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