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Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

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4 hours ago, Warlord said:

Renowned epidemiologist's anti-lockdown video removed from YouTube

More and interview with Dr. Wittkowski

https://www.foxnews.com/media/epidemiologist-anti-lockdown-video-removed-youtube

 

@Peter HunRenowned  epidemiologist against lockdown censored by YouTube! 

But there have been widely publicised rebound(s). Who exactly is Dr Nut Without ?

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11 hours ago, kzb said:

Yes I think it does lead to an error.

Out of 10,000 people, 500 are positive but 5 of them will be detected as negative (leaving 495).

9,500 negatives, out which 95 will be detected as positives.

The survey result is then 495  + 95 = 590 positives, or 5.90%,  an error of +18% relative to the correct answer of 5.00%.

I wonder if they correct for this?

 

It would be expressed as +20%/-2% Error rate

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17 hours ago, The Spaniard said:

David Starkey's informed take on the UK response to COVID-19

 

Interesting as he himself admits he is an 'at risk' person. He also mentioned Macron threating to close the trade border which hasn't had much coverage as a factor in gov's u turn. 

Also mentions globalization is a cause but does describe how many pandemics have spread before prior to what we call globalization.

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10 hours ago, Social Justice League said:

Northen working class halfwits voted for Boris in 2019 because of Brexit. 

Fook them and fook Boris and the current government.  All are useless ar4eholes.

Nothing like a bigoted, prejudiced Remainers is there?

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7 minutes ago, Warlord said:

They just say he was not a  prof..

There are more where he came from. He is far from alone in questioning the lockdown.

What about this?

 

In my field you can always fine some crank, who got a prof job because they did something good 20-30 years ago, spouting nonsense about the field in very public places. So I would be skeptical, unless I see a lot more than 1-2 people questioning.

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3 minutes ago, MancTom said:

In my field you can always fine some crank, who got a prof job because they did something good 20-30 years ago, spouting nonsense about the field in very public places. So I would be skeptical, unless I see a lot more than 1-2 people questioning.

Well there's Prof. Johan Giesecke who is a world renowned expert in infectious diseases 

 https://unherd.com/thepost/coming-up-epidemiologist-prof-johan-giesecke-shares-lessons-from-sweden/

Not really some crank...

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20 hours ago, MARTINX9 said:

How do we know all the 'excess deaths' are due to COVID-19.

How many have died of cancer, heart disease, strokes as they couldn't or were too scared to access NHS treatment or committed suicide due to stress or unemployment.  I agree we need a full analysis of what the causes are - but I expect there are other factors too.

Might be bigger proportion of deaths due to Covid as less flu deaths

 

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9 minutes ago, Warlord said:

They just say he was not a  prof..

There are more where he came from. He is far from alone in questioning the lockdown.

What about this?

 

He's utterly wrong about C-19 being uncontrollable. Dozens of countries around the world have done exactly that.

It's an entirely unnecessary pandemic. Ask a physicist (i.e. a genuine scientist!) not some half-educated twit from the Biology Dept.

Four new members of the Winner's Circle today:

Norway, North Macedonia, Paraguay, Trinidad and Tobago. 👇

https://www.endcoronavirus.org/countries

 

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Starmer vs Johnson round 3 today. Has the PM been studying hard at BS college to prepare himself or just tossing it off as usual?

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3 minutes ago, Social Justice League said:

Rolls-Royce to shed 9000 jobs.  The government are doing a fine job managing the economy down the tubes.

No change on the previous decade then.

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47 minutes ago, ticket2ride said:

Might be bigger proportion of deaths due to Covid as less flu deaths

 

Yes people are dying,  it people are also not being born.. There will probably be very small class numbers in 5/6 years! 

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WHO keeps warning of a possible second deadly wave this winter.

I feel like WHO is somehow suggesting this is inevitable.

This suggestion seems to be subtly appearing, in the media.

The problem with major suppression now, is people will get fed up with lockdown, compliance will not be as great next time. People will be in a mess financially and less inclined to abide.

The virus may adapt and become increasingly effective at what it does.

Social distancing does not protect us from the virus, it just limits the amount of infections.

I hope the goverment are adequately preparing, as this is a possibility.

Coupled with the flu, it may be much worse.

Although, I would still like my freedom back. It's a risk I'm willing to take.

Just speculating.

Hmmm 🤔

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1 hour ago, Warlord said:

They just say he was not a  prof..

There are more where he came from. He is far from alone in questioning the lockdown.

What about this?

 

But the first link you posted sounds like he would have had to be deliberately making things up for his argument to stack up. To claim Germany hadn't had flare ups would involve checking this, 'discovering' (well ok, its been broadly publicised) they had and then lying as it didn't suit his agenda.

I'm sure as you say there are plenty more like him up to the same sort of stuff, but wouldn't it be better for you to critically engage first with the material you are posting if this is the kind of stuff you want to post ?

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21 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

WHO keeps warning of a possible second deadly wave this winter.

I feel like WHO is somehow suggesting this is inevitable.

Given how some governments (and people!) are acting it probably is.

21 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

The problem with major suppression now, is people will get fed up with lockdown, compliance will not be as great next time. People will be in a mess financially and less inclined to abide.

If it weren't for all those years debating BTL'ers I would have said the level of selfishness I've seen has been stunning. But as I've said before, all you can do is try and protect yourself & your family. And you should do what you can to let the others suffer, i.e. like the grasshopper & the ants but without the happy ending.

21 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

The virus may adapt and become increasingly effective at what it does.

I suspect over time it'll get better at spreading & infecting but also less dangerous.

21 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

I hope the goverment are adequately preparing, as this is a possibility.

Don't hold your breath. (Well then again that might actually work but only until you can either get home or get a FFP3 mask).

Edited by LandOfConfusion

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8 minutes ago, pig said:

But the first link you posted sounds like he would have had to be deliberately making things up for his argument to stack up. To claim Germany hadn't had flare ups would involve checking this, 'discovering' (well ok, its been broadly publicised) they had and then lying as it didn't suit his agenda.

I'm sure as you say there are plenty more like him up to the same sort of stuff, but wouldn't it be better for you to critically engage first with the material you are posting if this is the kind of stuff you want to post ?

Sorry pig. I sometimes have stuff to do so can't give critical opinions on everything.  I value your opinion as well as @Peter Hunand others in the thread .

What do you make of Prof. Johan Gesecke's statements?  He is world renowned and against lockdowns.

 

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18 minutes ago, LandOfConfusion said:

Don't hold your breath. (Well then again that might actually work but only until you can either get home or get a FFP3 mask).

Nice video. After Matt Hancock's "protective ring" fib, who is reassured when Government ministers say it is safe to open schools? (Quoting countries will very low infection rates, bigger classrooms and lower class numbers) 😷

Edited by ticket2ride

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36 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

WHO keeps warning of a possible second deadly wave this winter.

I feel like WHO is somehow suggesting this is inevitable.

This suggestion seems to be subtly appearing, in the media.

The problem with major suppression now, is people will get fed up with lockdown, compliance will not be as great next time. People will be in a mess financially and less inclined to abide.

The virus may adapt and become increasingly effective at what it does.

Social distancing does not protect us from the virus, it just limits the amount of infections.

I hope the goverment are adequately preparing, as this is a possibility.

Coupled with the flu, it may be much worse.

Although, I would still like my freedom back. It's a risk I'm willing to take.

Just speculating.

Hmmm 🤔

Some expert was suggesting that the best option is a 90 day lockdown, followed by 30 day 'holiday' (not sure of the ratio). 

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  • 395 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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