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Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?


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14 minutes ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

Genuinely shocked you might think that.

There appears to be almost no correlation at all with people slagging off Boris on the Brexit thread and people slagging him off on here.

Weird isn't it ? Its almost as if Boris Get Brexit Dun and Boris Get Covid Dun are the same person lol

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Revealed: the secret report that gave ministers warning of care home coronavirus crisis

The government has kept the Exercise Cygnus report secret since it was first circulated in Whitehall three years ago, and has resisted growing calls for more transparency, which culminated in the announcement of a legal case to force ministers to release the findings. However a copy was leaked to the Guardian, which is publishing the document in the public interest.

At last.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/07/revealed-the-secret-report-that-gave-ministers-warning-of-care-home-coronavirus-crisis

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22 hours ago, Peter Hun said:

And so it seems international travel is the biggest driver of COVID-19, borders should have been shut along time ago despite what Mr Vi thinks on here.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8296417/Why-countries-shut-borders-Scientists-air-travel-main-driver-COVID-19-outbreaks.html

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13 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

 

That's part of the reason for the hard place we are in, but at least a new uncontaminated PM would be free to admit they got it wrong, apologise and change tack. Who that might be I have no idea none of the current CMs look much better and several would be even worse.  

I think if they are going to get rid of him they'll let him soak up as much of the blame as possible first. Some of his supporters are still pretty cultish about him though, and many are still defensive over their recent vote.

Its a tricky situation, they just tried resetting but now the only choices for responsibility for this calamity is the last ten years or the reset.

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25 minutes ago, Pebbles said:

And so it seems international travel is the biggest driver of COVID-19, borders should have been shut along time ago despite what Mr Vi thinks on here.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8296417/Why-countries-shut-borders-Scientists-air-travel-main-driver-COVID-19-outbreaks.html

You are on form, grab any bit of information that appears to support your isolationist world view and treat it as fact. 

Of course the virus is likely to arrive by plane as that's how people travel today but once it has what matters is whether you can contain the local spread.

As the WHO pointed out to the, US stopping travel from China when it was already spreading internally was pointless.  France has now identified a Covid death from a non traveller in December, so it had already spread well  before even the Chinese were aware of the risk. 

Anyway just more howling at the moon, airline travel and globalisation is not going to stop so we need to find other more effective ways of protecting against outbreaks. 

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5 hours ago, Riedquat said:

I could understand in the past the rich living longer - they were the ones not having unsanitary living conditions and unhealthy, dangerous working conditions, but those differences have been largely (even if not entirely) eliminated. So it's really more down to self-responsibility, who is likely to be smoking like a chimney, stuffing themselves with unhealthy food etc. rather than wealth being directly responsible (I don't accept the argument that healthy food is more expensive than crap).

Education also plays a part, the rich are better educated and understand cause and effect, the poor don’t or do not wish to 

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2 minutes ago, shlomo said:

Education also plays a part, the rich are better educated and understand cause and effect, the poor don’t or do not wish to 

Choose not to, I find it hard to believe these days that anyone really doesn't understand at a basic level what is and what isn't healthy, although the constant crying wolf over health can't help the picture.

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I hear from a civil servant friend that there is a huge row going on over the "unusable" Turkish PPF equipment, involving several departments and multiple Spad's. Rumor is civil servants raised concerns about both ordering unseen and the specification not complying with PPE standards but told to cut all checks and JFDI.  

A desperate attempt is now being made to damp down the issue (we are were we are, let's move on, blah blah) which makes me think No 10 might have been directly involved in the c0ck up.  

 

 

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31 minutes ago, MancTom said:

Very interesting thread:

Claims European excess mortality is entirely driven by England in 15-64 age range, and significantly driven by England in over 65s.

 

We are really in the sh1t bin.

I think he is saying the cheapest way through this is/was test track and trace and don't underfund your hospital system. Basically Germany as the model. Whats beyond frustration is that this feels like basic common sense rather than sophisticated science.

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44 minutes ago, MancTom said:

Very interesting thread:

Claims European excess mortality is entirely driven by England in 15-64 age range, and significantly driven by England in over 65s.

 

Interesting. There was an interview in the Guardian with HPC favourite Gordon Broon saying something similar; the important thing was to act quickly, not necessarily what the action was, that was important. Not sure I see the logic.

Edit: doing sweet FA and hiding in a fridge/Chequers obviously sub optimal stragety.

Edited by ticket2ride
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2 minutes ago, pig said:

We are really in the sh1t bin.

I think he is saying the cheapest way through this is/was test track and trace and don't underfund your hospital system. Basically Germany as the model. Whats beyond frustration is that this feels like basic common sense rather than sophisticated science.

The number of deaths is completely tied to the level of government incompetence.

Populism runs on fumes, the rhetoric is so easy - until it isn't. Half the country believe in the wizard and the Yellow Brick Road, the other half knows it's simply a ******** illusion.

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32 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

Choose not to, I find it hard to believe these days that anyone really doesn't understand at a basic level what is and what isn't healthy, although the constant crying wolf over health can't help the picture.

I ignore it and eat what I like, they change their minds every few years anyway.

Is butter healthy at the moment? Not that I give a damn, I eat it because I like it.

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4 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

The number of deaths is completely tied to the level of government incompetence.

Populism runs on fumes, the rhetoric is so easy - until it isn't. Half the country believe in the wizard and the Yellow Brick Road, the other half knows it's simply a ******** illusion.

And everyone knows that BJ is a liar, but most don't care. 

They expect politicians to lie and they think that BJ is one of them (which of course he isn't), one of the lads, a likeable rogue :rolleyes:.

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Happy days are here again, Parkdean holiday camps have opened their 70 plus camps for bookings from a weeks time, May 15th. I guess their directors like prison food.

Edited by notnow
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8 minutes ago, notnow said:

Happy days are here again, Parkdean holiday camps have opened their 70 plus camps for bookings from a weeks time, May 15th. I guess their directors like prison food.

Take the money and run..

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44 minutes ago, pig said:

We are really in the sh1t bin.

I think he is saying the cheapest way through this is/was test track and trace and don't underfund your hospital system. Basically Germany as the model. Whats beyond frustration is that this feels like basic common sense rather than sophisticated science.

Not to the people in power who ideologically believe the state is bad and should be shrunk as much as possible.

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39 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

I ignore it and eat what I like, they change their minds every few years anyway.

Is butter healthy at the moment? Not that I give a damn, I eat it because I like it.

Someone at the cafe put a rather large chunk of butter on top of the scone that I ordered. I picked it up and put it into my stupid gob thinking it was a piece of cheese! My teeth tingled a bit. That was a few months ago and I'm still here.

The cafe was at a cheese/creamery, I must have done it through association.

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2 hours ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

Genuinely shocked you might think that.

There appears to be almost no correlation at all with people slagging off Boris on the Brexit thread and people slagging him off on here.

Totally lost me mate.

I would  have asked  you what the Brexit thread, which I have never looked at on here until today and your guidance, has do with anything? But now I have looked at I would say .. Really!!

Just out of interest, are a lot of the posters on this thread ex Momentum?

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3 hours ago, Grayphil said:

Yes, I think this is one of the first places coming round to this view, the evidence seems to be growing lockdown doesn't really impact the numbers of infected, and as the US study shows, 66% of people infected had been isolated at home. 

I think the government does realise it though, but it's just wondering how it can get itself out of the situation its currently in, without looking a wee bit daft. 

I also notice Nicola Sturgeon has decided to take the opposite view of the UK government, and is going to maintain the lockdown in an attempt to score points with voters

It's about time, I noticed a shift in the public view also, not only from the amount of traffic on the road, but on goverment social media platforms.

Sturgeon can be responsible for her poor decisions and only carrying them on further, for weeks I've argued here and other places Sweden has got this right...

It's hard to ignore the evidence from Sweden now, the doom scenario never materialised, I'm not a scientist, but you dont need be... all the Information was there after 3 weeks, this now is just self-harm and as you point out, our governments not wanting to own up to their mistakes.

Secondly, we always knew the virus wasn't going away, I feel the goverment are just pandering, herd immunity is still the plan. They've just developed economic pain, to shift the psychology of the nation.

The change in narrative is apparent, "we are all going to die from coronavirus" to "not point in all of us dying from poverty, just let some die, gonna happen anyway".

Our actions, well we can shield them and put policies in place to protect them, but that's difficult as they often need care, it would require daily testing of care workers... the government does want that. Its obvious from their policies to discharge patients back to residential homes, they want to atleast gain some money back,by killing off pensioners whom probably would of lived another 20 years costing £1k plus a week minimum in care.

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3 hours ago, GregBowman said:

Good. Will push businesses over the border. Lots of friends in Scotland who are intelligent and run businesses that was their plan if independence went through 

?Love a bit of self deprecating humour, My old man was Lithuanian and I would love getting a convo going about how violent they are or could be with oh so right on middle class people ( actually most are very gentle just revel in hot debate) but certainly more than the average like to mix it. We come in at a very credible 5th in terms of foreign prisnors in the UK and our cousins the Poles 2nd - No further questions m'lud!

???, I forgot to mention that black males are #1 for over representation in the prison system. Plenty of time to push weights, get fit and healthy ?

Edited by Speed1987
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8 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

It's about time, I noticed a shift in the public view also, not only from the amount of traffic on the road, but on goverment social media platforms.

Sturgeon can be responsible for her poor decisions and only carrying them on further, for weeks I've argued here and other places Sweden has got this right...

It's hard to ignore the evidence from Sweden now, the doom scenario never materialised, I'm not a scientist, but you dont need be... all the Information was there after 3 weeks, this now is just self-harm and as you point out, our governments not wanting to own up to their mistakes.

Secondly, we always knew the virus wasn't going away, I feel the goverment are just pandering, herd immunity is still the plan. They've just developed economic pain, to shift the psychology of the nation.

The change in narrative is apparent, "we are all going to die from coronavirus" to "not point in all of us dying from poverty, just let some die, gonna happen anyway".

Our actions, well we can shield them and put policies in place to protect them, but that's difficult as they often need care, it would require daily testing of care workers... the government does want that. Its obvious from their policies to discharge patients back to residential homes, they want to atleast gain some money back,by killing off pensioners whom probably would of lived another 20 years costing £1k plus a week minimum in care.

The solution is easy, as we can see, but it is a big emotional pill to swallow for many.. The social justice warriors would have a cardiac even reading there things, but it's the reality we must face it we are to have a world worth coming back to

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London number are falling dramatically, I don't think a regional unlocking would be politically acceptable. 

It's noticeable that in certain parts of London the streets are almost empty - and more importantly few of the flats/houses appear occupied. It's not beyond possibility that a good percentage of better-off folk took off to second-homes/family homes for the duration. The danger is that they helped to spread the virus by doing so.

Other parts of London are chock-a-block, particularly in queues for the likes of Sainsburys and Aldis.

Someone posted above that supermarkets may be where people are still helping to spread the virus, even though social distancing is being observed. Since the virus is airborne, I fear that aircon systems/ventilation blowers are the culprit. At least most people are avoiding taking the Underground now.

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  • 433 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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      • up 5%



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