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Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?


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31 minutes ago, Biggus said:

There are 433 confirmed cases in South Korea, up from 28 three days ago. I don't think this will be contained now.

+1

there's no way in a million years that a bunch of international well paid neo-liberal paper pushers were ever going to handle this well - they'll talk a lot and argue for a bigger paycheck, but do about as much useful with it as they have done with climate change

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39 minutes ago, Si1 said:

+1

there's no way in a million years that a bunch of international well paid neo-liberal paper pushers were ever going to handle this well - they'll talk a lot and argue for a bigger paycheck, but do about as much useful with it as they have done with climate change

Wait until the permafrost melts.

No doubt there will be dinosaur pox, mammoth syphilis, sabre-tooth corona virus and neolithic pox.

 

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11 hours ago, Sour Mash said:

Another 7 cases in Italy, including the first in Milan..

https://mobile.twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1231279927816749056?s=20

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51602007

Italy now seems to be following the Chinese containment model.

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10 hours ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

Wait until the permafrost melts.

No doubt there will be dinosaur pox, mammoth syphilis, sabre-tooth corona virus and neolithic pox.

 

I do find it surprising that on here , and elsewhere, some are insisting this is nothing worse than seasonal flu.

https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-23-20-hnk-intl/index.html

I ask again, to the people saying this that & the other 'Is no reason to panic' - if things deteriorate badly in the UK, will you have the decency to tell us when to 'panic' ie refresh business continuity plans, work from home, stock up on essentials & some cash, buy respirators etc?

I commute back & forth on a packed Central line 3 days/week, so 6 journeys.  Central London is chock full of Chinese & Italian tourists.

A specific, detailed, verifiable explanation as to why I don't need to be concerned for myself, friends & family (some frail) would be appreciated.

 

Edited by hotblack42
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Someone has worked out the economic cost of an estimated % of people dying, or the impact of having to close airports etc.

they probably worked out that more deaths would occur from a frozen supply chain, and reduced economic activity than the virus itself.

equally it would be near impossible to slow it down, so some token efforts is the best they can do  

perhaps a surge or deaths may actually lead to some economic stimulus, more travel to funerals, people dropping £4-£5k on a funeral, the wakes etc. equally although we seem to know it can kill healthy people, it may kill:remove people who would of needed long term expensive care via the NHS in old age. So could be some benefits from such a virus.

the decisions are not black and white.

the average person like me would rather see airports close etc, I don’t generally travel abroad that often anyway, it would be better for the environment, and some business can and should be done over the internet via camera instead sending a sack of meat on a aeroplane.

i think the average person would rather be safe at a cost, than open to the virus. hence all the comments on ‘close the dam airports!’

 

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1 hour ago, hotblack42 said:

I do find it surprising that on here , and elsewhere, some are insisting this is nothing worse than seasonal flu.

https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-23-20-hnk-intl/index.html

I ask again, to the people saying this that & the other 'Is no reason to panic' - if things deteriorate badly in the UK, will you have the decency to tell us when to 'panic' ie refresh business continuity plans, work from home, stock up on essentials & some cash, buy respirators etc?

I commute back & forth on a packed Central line 3 days/week, so 6 journeys.  Central London is chock full of Chinese & Italian tourists.

A specific, detailed, verifiable explanation as to why I don't need to be concerned for myself, friends & family (some frail) would be appreciated.

 

I would enter a state of panic in reaction to an event directly affecting me or others around me so if I drove my car into a flooded river then panic would ensue.

I wouldn’t panic when it started raining before I left the house....

So concern if I knew there were possible floods on my route - yes. Panic no.

Words such as crisis, emergency and panic are thrown around constantly now that they are losing their power to describe extreme and immediate situations. 

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2 hours ago, hotblack42 said:

I ask again, to the people saying this that & the other 'Is no reason to panic' - if things deteriorate badly in the UK, will you have the decency to tell us when to 'panic' ie refresh business continuity plans, work from home, stock up on essentials & some cash, buy respirators etc?

Business continuity plans, by definition, should ALREADY be prepared for a pandemic.  Surely that's one of the most obvious risks they should cover?  If your company's doesn't it's a poor plan indeed, and certainly needs an overhaul, not a refresh.

I stocked up on essentials and cash following the financial crisis of 2008 when I realised just what could have happened, and have remained doing that ever since.  It just seems totally logical to me that you should ALWAYS have a month or so's food in your house, and a stash of cash in case (say) the banking system goes down.

Those, to me, aren't PANIC measures at all, but just sensible normal behaviour in a world in which - occasionally - shit happens.  If you're sensibly prepared for things, you should rarely be in the situation of having to "panic".  In fact, the very word suggests making rash, hurried decisions at a time when it's already too late.

My favourite phrase from the 2008 crisis was someone who said: "Now is not the time to panic.  You should have done that a long time ago."

1 hour ago, Innkeeper said:

Words such as crisis, emergency and panic are thrown around constantly now that they are losing their power to describe extreme and immediate situations. 

+1

If you read the media there are half a dozen "crises" every week.  

Then when a disease comes along that could kill a million people in the UK, there isn't an obvious way to describe it.

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2 hours ago, hotblack42 said:

I do find it surprising that on here , and elsewhere, some are insisting this is nothing worse than seasonal flu.

https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-23-20-hnk-intl/index.html

I ask again, to the people saying this that & the other 'Is no reason to panic' - if things deteriorate badly in the UK, will you have the decency to tell us when to 'panic' ie refresh business continuity plans, work from home, stock up on essentials & some cash, buy respirators etc?

I commute back & forth on a packed Central line 3 days/week, so 6 journeys.  Central London is chock full of Chinese & Italian tourists.

A specific, detailed, verifiable explanation as to why I don't need to be concerned for myself, friends & family (some frail) would be appreciated.

 

You can hope or hide. Maybe you will be in the 80% of people who get mild symptoms.

If you do get it, unlike flu you will not become  immune with the first  and a re-infection could kill you because of the permanent damage done in the first attack. Comparing Covid19 to flu is ridiculous, its more akin to HIV.

Be concerned? Yes.

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Another doctor in the Chinese city of Wuhan has died after being infected with coronavirus, according to the official WeChat account of Wuhan Xiehe Jiangbei Hospital, where the doctor worked in the gastroenterology department.

Xia Sisi, 29, was admitted to the hospital on January 19, and was then transferred to Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University as her conditioned worsened.

“At 6:30 in the early morning of February 23, 2020, she died at Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University after all rescue measures were exhausted. We express our deep condolences to Doctor Xia Sisi's unfortunate passing and condolences to her family,” the hospital said in a statement.

On Thursday, another doctor in Wuhan, 29-year-old Peng Yinhua, also died from the virus. There was national outrage earlier this month when doctor Li Wenliang, who had attempted to raise the alarm about the virus in the early weeks of the outbreak only to be reprimanded by police, died of the disease.

 

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Something I found interesting. From https://www.theamericanconservative.com/dreher/china-apocalypse-buddhist-prophecy-locusts/
 

Quote

 

My wife tells me this is written by a Buddhist monk in the Forbidden City named Gentleman Zigong probably in the early part of the 20th Century. This is a printed duplicate in more modern Mandarin. This is part of a large cycle of Chinese literature known as the “Ancient Internal Bible”. This is difficult to translate into modern language because it is written in a very old dialect. I view it as being similar to us in the 2020s reading Chaucer’s Middle English. So my wife really struggled to translate some of it – but in general – this is what it says….

“The year 2020 – The year all of China will weep. The omens will be so bad that the New Year will not be celebrated. Then the plague will come. It will come with a fury – the tigers and the wolves will hide in the mountains. The plague will encompass all the land – and will eventually spread to the whole world. Very soon – rice will become so expensive that no one can eat. Then the rivers will sink all the boats. People in that year will only be able to harvest rice in the very early spring. There will be no harvest of late season rice, beans, wheat, and oats because vast clouds of locusts will lay waste to the entire countryside. I, Gentleman Zigong, assure you Chinese in 2020 that the locusts will fall from the skies and the destruction will be complete. Smoke and fire will fill the fields – but nothing will be able to stop the swarms. Once the locusts have destroyed the land and the smoke is still coming from the ground, the rivers will flood the countryside. I, Gentleman Zigong, will tell you Chinese in 2020 how to survive. Remain very close to your families and your neighbors. The best is to have stored up plenty of gold and food to live and share freely with those you love. Tolerate no thieves among the people. Be uniters and not dividers. If you can do all these things, you will survive.”

 

 

If you'd told me a few weeks ago that this year we would have a pandemic, a famine and a complete meltdown of the financial system I'd have thought you were nuts.  Yet here we are. A pandemic has spread to Europe, Iran, Korea and is causing mayhem in China. A plague of locusts, supposedly from Africa, has somehow migrated to China. And central banks are busy trying to cure a plague by printing money.

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All people can catch a virus...it doesn't pick and choose place or nationality.....wrong place wrong time.

This virus is more to do with what it could do to the economic health of world security as to do with mortality.......sick people who are contained and inactive will create breaks in the flow of supply and needs of others.;)

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20 hours ago, scottbeard said:

A very interesting video, all very neatly evidence based … right up until his last comments about the UK preparations and the NHS stating that we are "well prepared", where he said two things that really annoyed me:

1. A sarcastic "so we're well prepared...nothing to worry about then!".  No - that's NOT what well prepared means.  You can be well prepared for a tornado by hiding in the cellar.  It will still destroy your house.  Well prepared DOES NOT equal "nothing to worry about" and the NHS are not saying that.

2. He seems to have just decided the UK are not prepared based upon nothing.  He worked in an A&E department last year, and he felt they were struggling to cope with Business As Usual, and hence couldn't possibly be well prepared for COVID-19.  The truth is - he doesn't actually know what preparations the UK has made in the last two months.  He has no idea.  He isn't in a position to comment either way.

 

I am inclined to agree with the dr, if our preparations are a few porta-cabins at each hospital that aint going to cut it if it takes hold, the chinese are building another 11 isolation hospitals I read somewhere in comparison. I think his main point was we don't have the capacity to treat large numbers of people requiring respiratory assistance and ICU care which may possibly required as 20% of patients need medical assistance such as oxygen and 5% need ICU care.  Given what's happened so far it looks at least as contagious as flu if not more so.  They are now saying people are going to be checked/tested at home in the UK, but i've seen no mention of preparations other than sticking people in hotels for 14 days which is now questionable in terms of quarantine time (someone incubated the disease for 28 days in china), the porta-cabins and home testing. Given how the UK establishment has dealt with previous public health issues, such as BSE, I am not filled with confidence.

Edited by petetong
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- "Serious mistake was made not to quarantine people who arrived in Italy from China" said Walter Ricciardi of the WHO, adding that "within two weeks we will know if we are facing an epidemic" and advising that, for the next two weeks, people "should avoid crowded places: metro, buses, trains, schools, discos, and gyms.

 

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14 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

 

Unfortunately seems to be the case in quite a few countries I would think, haven't heard of any African countries for example quarantining people who've come from China, so unless the UK quarantines everyone that comes from any country where there are possible outbreaks I think we can expect more cases in UK.

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12 minutes ago, petetong said:

Unfortunately seems to be the case in quite a few countries I would think, haven't heard of any African countries for example quarantining people who've come from China, so unless the UK quarantines everyone that comes from any country where there are possible outbreaks I think we can expect more cases in UK.

What will the impact of it be to ordinary hard working people getting on with their lives.....My point is why is this virus any different to any other virus?.....is it not good for healthy people to build up immunity all be it for only a limited time......what is the ratio of those who get infected to those who actually die? Who are, and how healthy are those that get it that actually die?.......how is this virus different to any other, apart from there is no vaccine as yet and it might mean one person that has it can spread it not knowing that they are infected more easily to many more people.;)

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6 hours ago, hotblack42 said:

I do find it surprising that on here , and elsewhere, some are insisting this is nothing worse than seasonal flu.

https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-23-20-hnk-intl/index.html

I ask again, to the people saying this that & the other 'Is no reason to panic' - if things deteriorate badly in the UK, will you have the decency to tell us when to 'panic' ie refresh business continuity plans, work from home, stock up on essentials & some cash, buy respirators etc?

I commute back & forth on a packed Central line 3 days/week, so 6 journeys.  Central London is chock full of Chinese & Italian tourists.

A specific, detailed, verifiable explanation as to why I don't need to be concerned for myself, friends & family (some frail) would be appreciated.

 

You do need to be concerned and I would advise you to take time off work, stock up, eat lots of oranges and take echinacea tablets plus get lots of sleep and exercise (away from jam packed areas). 30 or 40 minutes a day of strenuous exercise, punching/kicking a workout bag/running fast for 30 to 40 minutes re-connects us with our genetic code which lived or died by the ability to engage in fast aggressive fight or flight at a moments notice, the body and immune system pay you back handsomely for every intense workout, and pay you back negatively for every hour spent at a computer (he says while typing) and crushed in a stressed angry commuter environment.

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26 minutes ago, dances with sheeple said:

You do need to be concerned and I would advise you to take time off work, stock up, eat lots of oranges and take echinacea tablets plus get lots of sleep and exercise (away from jam packed areas). 30 or 40 minutes a day of strenuous exercise, punching/kicking a workout bag/running fast for 30 to 40 minutes re-connects us with our genetic code which lived or died by the ability to engage in fast aggressive fight or flight at a moments notice, the body and immune system pay you back handsomely for every intense workout, and pay you back negatively for every hour spent at a computer (he says while typing) and crushed in a stressed angry commuter environment.

Thanks.  I run about 90 miles a month, Sainsbury order including some extra bulk just placed.  FFP3 respirators ordered.  I wouldn't call the Central line commuters stressed and angry.  More tired/exhausted and fed up!

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43 minutes ago, dances with sheeple said:

You do need to be concerned and I would advise you to take time off work, stock up, eat lots of oranges and take echinacea tablets plus get lots of sleep and exercise (away from jam packed areas). 30 or 40 minutes a day of strenuous exercise, punching/kicking a workout bag/running fast for 30 to 40 minutes re-connects us with our genetic code which lived or died by the ability to engage in fast aggressive fight or flight at a moments notice, the body and immune system pay you back handsomely for every intense workout, and pay you back negatively for every hour spent at a computer (he says while typing) and crushed in a stressed angry commuter environment.

Once you are sick, do not exercise. It moves the infection. BTW,  the first patient in Italy is a super fit runner - he's in ICU.

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2 minutes ago, JawKnee said:

Research suggests the virus causes kidney and testicular damage in otherwise healthy people.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022418v1

It's just the flu though...

Yes, all those people who have recovered may well die in the years to come, especially if they get re-infected.

1 hour ago, winkie said:

What will the impact of it be to ordinary hard working people getting on with their lives.....My point is why is this virus any different to any other virus?..

Well, its not very different than other viruses , such as HIV, SARS or MERS. It may kill you or cause life changing damage. Maybe.

What it will mean is you won't be able to go out or goto work, because whatever you think about it, the authorities will stop you.

Schools shut, public transport, shops, everything - all closed.

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