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Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?


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3 minutes ago, The Preacherman said:

That's really promising news. A similar approach has been used in Swansea with a local engineering company building CPAP machines. 

Coronavirus ventilator designed and built in Wales gets approval from UK Government

Too often Medicine as a profession freeze out other logical thinking professionals - There is a snobbery about having done all that medical training - it takes a really forward looking Medical professional to break the group think 

When considering this surely the thinking is we know getting oxygen in to the patient is good but are we leaving it a bit too late ?

Its a bit like having a small gouge and scratch on your car and instead of using chips away leaving it to the elements so it becomes worse then putting some miracle product on from Halfords which doesn’t really fix it and eventually having the panel resprayed

When in fact using Chips Away is the same protocol just earlier and using less expensive equipment 

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11 minutes ago, The Preacherman said:

The only thing I've seen about the 2m rule is that it is the safe distance that you can be in the same room as someone with flu for 10 minutes and not be infected. Unfortunately, I now can't find the source again. 

Since I know you post good stuff - that’s a good reason but annoying when you can’t find the source 

But then again is it Blursday are we on instaapp or Whatbook or whatever losing track of lots of stuff ?

Edited by GregBowman
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8 minutes ago, The Preacherman said:

This is why aircon is meant to have filters but they are often omitted as they require maintenance. 

Yep - medical meets engineering principles again - easily fixed and time to invest in air  con businesses - just tighten up the regulation around service with certification etc - the employees would demand it anyway 

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1 hour ago, The Preacherman said:

The official guidance is that the 2m distance must be maintained in the workplace where possible. Local Morrisons has given up on opening every other till and has just put screens up in between them. 

I've no idea idea where 2m has come from. Does anybody know? 

I am currently exploring the possibility of introducing glass screens in clinical spaces in order to recommence routine clinics. It'd require checking over by Infection Control and a wider workspace redesign to maintain patient/clinician segregation as much as possible but these are the sort of things we'll have to consider if this drags on for months.

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16 minutes ago, Social Justice League said:

On Sky news they are showing some survivors leaving hospital and all of them look quite/very obese.

Weight seems to be a big factor in getting bad symptoms.

If those are the ones surviving maybe it's a help and the skinny ones died....

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, The Preacherman said:

Date from USS Theodore Rosevalt 

  • 94% of 4,800 crew tested
  • More than 600 sailors tested positive 
  • Of positive 60% are asymptomatic 

There is then the question of why only ⅛ of the crew have caught it. 

No evidence the virus spreads through a country in the same way as a confined ship people cannot leave though. So very dubious to extrapolate much from this about transmission.

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7 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Maybe easier said than done. I am working with others on a company plan now for a return to work. Early days yet but already it is clear it will be nothing like normality. Simple problems,

TfL estimate that tube capacity with social distancing will be 12% of normal, train capacity 20% of normal.

If staff can get to our building they have to get into their office, lift capacity with social distancing is 1 (we are in the top half of a 20  plus story building). Even with spaced work time arrival this alone will limit staff numbers to around 30% of normal.

This is before we even consider what happens in the office itself, air conditioning airflows are currently a major concern.   

 

 

   

 

Yea it will be a struggle, but even if somethings go back to normal, it's better for our health.

That's a tricky situation, the Air con, will have to be turned off.

Sooner or later the government will just start to turn a blind eye to this, how long can we go on giving free money out?

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23 minutes ago, Social Justice League said:

On Sky news they are showing some survivors leaving hospital and all of them look quite/very obese.

Weight seems to be a big factor in getting bad symptoms.

Not always. Extremely fit people also get extremely sick.

 

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8 hours ago, Social Justice League said:

Looks like this lockdown won't last past the beginning of May.

No one is interested now, as most reasonably healthy people realise that they have probably already had the virus with no symptoms.

Meanwhile the Tories are desperate to destroy the economy and bankrupt the country for the next 50 years.

 

It a great Tory achievement and everyone and their dog and the blind man can see it..............

I agree 100%...

I really wish I lived in Swden right now, they are being sensible about all this.

They understand, that no medication or vaccine is going to save the population right now. That will take years to come about.

The conservatives just want to saddle businesses with loans for the long term....

Oh and start a new era of Austerity...

 

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8 hours ago, kzb said:

Only if "you" were a completely average individual, including average gender.  Your personal risk depends on your age, gender and health conditions.

But yes, I have made the same point about risk at work upthread.  A 1% fatality rate in a workplace, that was a result of doing the job required of the workforce, would be unacceptable.  I doubt that active military service in our more recent "wars" has a fatality rate that high.

Yes it was your post that caught my eye.

We know that humans normally have very poor intuitive risk calculation. But with Covid it seems that in general the public perceive the risk to be high (and it is).

image.png.f52dbec12b075d5beddd1ab73cc2955a.png

(Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication)

We also know that politicians are more concerned with public perception than reality ("I'm sorry if people feel we don't have enough PPE"). So maybe it's the widespread perception of the danger of Covid (which is real) that is causing politicians a problem.

Which explains the strategy to try to bull? people that it's only fat/old/bame people that are at risk.

Edited by ticket2ride
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Quote

 

Outcry after Trump suggests injecting disinfectant as treatment

"And then I see the disinfectant where it knocks it out in a minute. One minute. And is there a way we can do something like that, by injection inside or almost a cleaning?"

"So it'd be interesting to check that."

Disinfectants are hazardous substances and can be poisonous if ingested. Even external exposure can be dangerous to the skin, eyes and respiratory system.

 

He also appeared to propose irradiating patients' bodies with UV light, an idea dismissed by a doctor at the briefing.

"And then I said, supposing you brought the light inside of the body, which you can do either through the skin or in some other way. So, supposing we hit the body with a tremendous - whether it's ultraviolet or just very powerful light."

 

Pointing to his head, Mr Trump went on: "I'm not a doctor. But I'm, like, a person that has a good you-know-what."

BBC

 

Hope no one is going to try this remedies.

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24 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

I agree 100%...

I really wish I lived in Swden right now, they are being sensible about all this.

They understand, that no medication or vaccine is going to save the population right now. That will take years to come about.

The conservatives just want to saddle businesses with loans for the long term....

Oh and start a new era of Austerity...

 

Whoomp, there it is...

EWQNuc3WoAUIigR?format=jpg&name=large

Edited by ticket2ride
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21 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

Yea it will be a struggle, but even if somethings go back to normal, it's better for our health.

That's a tricky situation, the Air con, will have to be turned off.

Sooner or later the government will just start to turn a blind eye to this, how long can we go on giving free money out?

There has, in my mind, been an element King ***** trying to stop the tide coming in (yes I know its untrue and he probably never tried to actually do that!) to all these government mandated lockdowns and the extent and scope of them.  t's really just one more aspect of the whole culture and central planning mindset of politicians these days.  The idea that there is no force of nature they cannot, with enough resource, control.

Admitting, upfront, failure and eating humble pie is something that any career focused politician can never do and so the eventual removal of the lockdowns, with the virus still ever present or even stil rampant, will merely be handled by gradually changing the narrative.

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4 minutes ago, Warlord said:

End the f*cking lockdown.. I'm tired of it now.. 

At what point do we start a campaign and write to the useless MP's ? Or maybe protest in the streets? Raab is an idiot he wants to keep the lockdown going for MONTHS! 

 

Agree, Raab is dreadful, but him and Handcock are useful fallguys for Boris and Cummings.

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2 minutes ago, Social Justice League said:

Agree, Raab is dreadful, but him and Handcock are useful fallguys for Boris and Cummings.

Raab is totally out of touch. He wants the lockdown to go on for months basically.  I think once Johnson gets back and see;s the mess we're in things will open up quickly and the awful Raab can be sent off on a  foreign holiday.

 

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4 minutes ago, Warlord said:

Raab is totally out of touch. He wants the lockdown to go on for months basically.  I think once Johnson gets back and see;s the mess we're in things will open up quickly and the awful Raab can be sent off on a  foreign holiday.

 

False.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/apr/20/doves-hawks-uk-covid-19-lockdown-policy

Quote

Raab is known to be instinctively in favour of a swift end to the lockdown

 

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