Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?


Recommended Posts

0
HOLA441
10 hours ago, kzb said:

Grayphil, can you comment on the ventilation systems on cruise ships?

Some are saying the aircon will be good at spreading viruses, similar to a airliner.

So you can be superclean elsewhere, but that is all in vain if coughs and sneezes get blown about the ship in the aircon system.

I honestly don't know about that in detail, but I know that air is sucked from outside, filtered and cooled, it's not recycled air like in an aircraft.. Cos there is no need..so after thinking about it more.. Its urban myth. Why would you recycle air.. If you could get fresh air with enough oxygen from outside.. 

Correct100%guaranteed..for those who have been on hpc for a decade #CYGNO

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 58.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

  • Arpeggio

    3537

  • Peter Hun

    2529

  • Confusion of VIs

    2455

  • Bruce Banner

    2389

1
HOLA442
6 minutes ago, Grayphil said:

I honestly don't know about that in detail, but I know that air is sucked from outside, filtered and cooled, it's not recycled air like in an aircraft.. Cos there is no need..so after thinking about it more.. Its urban myth. Why would you recycle air.. If you could get fresh air with enough oxygen from outside.. 

Correct100%guaranteed..for those who have been on hpc for a decade #CYGNO

There is a reason to re-circulate if the air is heated or (more likely) cooled by air conditioning.

It would make the heating/cooling more effective and also be more energy efficient.

On a plane, a certain percentage is fresh air from outside, but not all of it.  Are you sure there is not a similar set up on a ship?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2
HOLA443
7 hours ago, kzb said:

There is a reason to re-circulate if the air is heated or (more likely) cooled by air conditioning.

It would make the heating/cooling more effective and also be more energy efficient.

On a plane, a certain percentage is fresh air from outside, but not all of it.  Are you sure there is not a similar set up on a ship?

Yes the heating is cooled always by the sea water.. It gets cooled down or heated up once onboard, as a reality check in my cabin now there is two vents which blow in, but none that extract. 

The galleys etc have extractors, these go straight outside.. I know this is true, cos when we sit along side sometimes in port on a wind free day, the smell of garlic, onions and cooking gets sucked back in from a vent 20 metres away and guests complain, then I have to apologise to them!

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3
HOLA444
4
HOLA445
2 hours ago, Sour Mash said:

29 y.o. Doctor passes away due to COVID-19: https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/f6zxfj/29_year_old_wuhan_respirologist_and_icu_doctor_dr/

No English language news coverage of the story as far as I could find.

29 years old  - should maybe wake up a few of the idiots who think it's nothing to be too worried about because they are young ......

Very sad case to hear :(  I lost my girlfriend to cancer at a similar age and it was a terrible tragedy, the worst thing that has ever happened in my whole life.  There is no doubt that the loss of a young person who has not had a fair chance to enjoy life is the saddest event there can be.

Literally NOBODY is saying "it's nothing to be too worried about".  Surely we are all on this thread BECAUSE we are worried about it?!

My only comments in that regard have been to the risk in context, which is that a normal healthy young person has a relatively low risk of dying.  Of course, even if the risk is under 1%, that will still equate to a lot of people killed, each one a tragedy for the families concerned.  However, it also means 99% of such people will be OK - and some many won't even catch it in the first place.

In overall context, if you're aged in your 20s-40s now and were in a school year of 100 pupils, chances are that about 95 of you and your school mates will survive to retirement age.   Factor in COVID-19 and maybe it drops to 94.  Whether that's something that should worry someone is very much a personal point, really.  I'm sure some people will worry more than others, just as some worried more than others during the Blitz as to whether a German bomb would drop on their head. 

Ultimately I'm sure we just all cross our fingers and hope that ourselves and the people will love will be safe.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5
HOLA446
14 minutes ago, Grayphil said:

Yes the heating is cooled always by the sea water.. It gets cooled down or heated up once onboard, as a reality check in my cabin now there is two vents which blow in, but none that extract. 

The galleys etc have extractors, these go straight outside.. I know this is true, cos when we sit along side sometimes in port on a wind free day, the smell of garlic, onions and cooking gets sucked back in from a vent 20 metres away and guests complain, then I have to apologise to them!

 

Always good to hear from those who would really know !

However, if there is only air being blown INTO an inner cabin, it has to come out somewhere.  Under the door into the corridor ?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6
HOLA447
5 hours ago, scottbeard said:

Very sad case to hear :(  I lost my girlfriend to cancer at a similar age and it was a terrible tragedy, the worst thing that has ever happened in my whole life.  There is no doubt that the loss of a young person who has not had a fair chance to enjoy life is the saddest event there can be.

Really sad to hear that (and it's especially arbitrary and perverse to get cancer before 45).

Anyway, while this outbreak still worries me, the real damage it's inflicted is economic trade and travel (plus the viability of China as a global manufacturing hub).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7
HOLA448
8 hours ago, Sour Mash said:

29 y.o. Doctor passes away due to COVID-19: https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/f6zxfj/29_year_old_wuhan_respirologist_and_icu_doctor_dr/

No English language news coverage of the story as far as I could find.

29 years old  - should maybe wake up a few of the idiots who think it's nothing to be too worried about because they are young ......

 

 

 

 

Note the time duration of this case-25 Jan to 20 Feb

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8
HOLA449
14 hours ago, kzb said:

Always good to hear from those who would really know !

However, if there is only air being blown INTO an inner cabin, it has to come out somewhere.  Under the door into the corridor ?

Yes their is a 1cm gap at the bottom of the door, which shines like the light of a thousand suns when you are trying to have a siesta! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9
HOLA4410
On 20/02/2020 at 19:58, rollover said:

More than 16,000 recovered patients and more than 2,000 death it makes mortality rate around 12.5%.

But the number could be wrong.

Recovered maybe misleading. Patients are being release from hospital while still sick and they can relapse.

Immunity only lasts for a variable amount of time. Months.

Recovered patients may still be infectious

In a grim assessment, a key Chinese respiratory disease expert described the situation of the epidemic as a “see-saw battle”, despite the drop in daily recorded cases in recent days.

“We should not be relaxed. The figure may go up again,” said Zhao Jianping, head of an expert team working to contain the outbreak in Hubei.

Zhao told the magazine Southern People Weekly there were cases in China in which recovered patients continued to show traces of the virus through nucleic acid tests. There were similar results in Canada, where nose and throat swabs taken from a couple who had recovered from Covid-19 revealed they still had traces of the virus.

“We also have such cases. This is dangerous. Where do you put these patients? You can't send them home because they might infect others, but you can't put them in hospital as resources are stretched,” he said.

Zhao said there were 27 patients when his team first went to a Wuhan hospital designated to treat infected people on December 30, and the number increased on January 10 with infections among medical workers.

“The number of patients has jumped from 27 to 70,000. It is highly contagious,” he said.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3051688/coronavirus-115-new-deaths-confirmed-hubei-officials-report-411

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10
HOLA4411

Got an English language link for the case of the young doctor.. Tragic

 

2 deaths in Italy :

https://m.dw.com/en/coronavirus-italy-reports-first-deaths-south-korea-sees-cases-double/a-52467865

 

If you were in any doubt about the seriousness of the situation and the likelihood of a global pandemic, its time to wise up. Get some food supplies in while you still can as well as sanitation supplies and any otc medicines you need or use regularly.

 

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11
HOLA4412
26 minutes ago, Sour Mash said:

Got an English language link for the case of the young doctor.. Tragic

 

2 deaths in Italy :

https://m.dw.com/en/coronavirus-italy-reports-first-deaths-south-korea-sees-cases-double/a-52467865

 

If you were in any doubt about the seriousness of the situation and the likelihood of a global pandemic, its time to wise up. Get some food supplies in while you still can as well as sanitation supplies and any otc medicines you need or use regularly.

 

 

 

 

Annoys me they are not stating the ethnicity of the dead Italian's, are they European East Asians , or European Causasians or European Blacks????? !!!!!  Have we had any confirmed deaths of anyone not East Asian Ethnicity yet? I care not what Nationality they are, I want to know their genepool. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12
HOLA4413
6 minutes ago, markyh said:

Annoys me they are not stating the ethnicity of the dead Italian's, are they European East Asians , or European Causasians or European Blacks????? !!!!!  Have we had any confirmed deaths of anyone not East Asian Ethnicity yet? I care not what Nationality they are, I want to know their genepool. 

It's irrelevant.

Quote

The 38-year-old man near Lodi is in critical condition (mechanically ventilated in intensive care, according to his parents) and at least 14 contacts are in serious condition, according to doctors, and include:
- 5 health workers and doctors.
- 3 patients at the Codogno hospital.
- 3 elderly (in the 70s and 80s) clients of a bar run by the father of the man's friend.

Quote

The first to fall ill was a 38-year-old Italian who met with someone who had returned from China on Jan. 21 without presenting any symptoms of the new virus, health authorities said. That person was being kept in isolation and appears to present antibodies to the virus.

The 38-year-old is now hospitalized in critical condition. His wife and a friend of his, who was a member of his running club, also tested positive for the virus. Three patients at the hospital in Codogno where he went with flu-like symptoms on Feb. 18 also have infections, as do five nurses and doctors.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13
HOLA4414
18 minutes ago, markyh said:

Annoys me they are not stating the ethnicity of the dead Italian's, are they European East Asians , or European Causasians or European Blacks????? !!!!!  Have we had any confirmed deaths of anyone not East Asian Ethnicity yet? I care not what Nationality they are, I want to know their genepool. 

Pretty sure they are Italian natives - I remember previous reports said that the original spreader passed it on the his 'sports partner' and in turn that person's wife (who were both just shy of 40yo) as well as some older people in his local bar.

 

  I would guess that the victims are one the bar patrons and the other guy's wife.  If this is indeed the case, no surprise that the media isn't in a hurry to tell the public that a European woman in her late 30s was killed by the virus.

 

How much longer TPTB can control the narrative through the mainstream media and stop the general public panicking remains to be seen.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14
HOLA4415
1 hour ago, markyh said:

Annoys me they are not stating the ethnicity of the dead Italian's, are they European East Asians , or European Causasians or European Blacks????? !!!!!  Have we had any confirmed deaths of anyone not East Asian Ethnicity yet? I care not what Nationality they are, I want to know their genepool. 

its probably man made so it wipes out Satoshi Nakamoto

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15
HOLA4416
16
HOLA4417
Quote

Fecal transmission may be behind coronavirus’ rapid spread

https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/02/20/fecal-transmission-may-be-behind-coronavirus-rapid-spread.html

Quote

 

Do counties that use squat toilets have a higher risk?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Squat_toilet

Preferences by country or region

 

The following general statements can be made:

 

Edited by Lord D'arcy Pew
Link to comment
Share on other sites

17
HOLA4418
18
HOLA4419
19
HOLA4420
3 hours ago, markyh said:

Annoys me they are not stating the ethnicity of the dead Italian's, are they European East Asians , or European Causasians or European Blacks????? !!!!!  Have we had any confirmed deaths of anyone not East Asian Ethnicity yet? I care not what Nationality they are, I want to know their genepool. 

The Italian who died was a 77 year old man called Adriano Trevisan - while there are no pictures of him it is an ethnically Italian name. But of course 77 year old men may well have a lot of other underlying illnesses and complications so any pneumonia could kill them not just COVID19 - the final trigger amongst others. He had been admitted to hospital 10 days ago with another condition.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11018912/coronavirus-uk-italy-live/

Of course to say there may be a potential ethnic bias to the deadliness of a virus or any disease is perfectly rational - because some diseases are prevalent in some races and almost negligible in others due to genes and historical factors linked to climate and migration.  Viruses can also attach themselves and cause more issues in some than others - as applied with the Spanish flu which seemed to disproportionately hit Pacific islanders for example. A passport doesn't explain it!

Why are generally fit and healthy Chinese in their 20s and 30s dying with similar issues in Korea now - but there is little incidence of that so far amongst young people elsewhere or indeed healthy 70 year olds on cruise ships who just get a mild flu. When a 25 year old Italian dies from it - then we perhaps start getting more concerned here. 

Edited by MARTINX9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

20
HOLA4421
21
HOLA4422
1 hour ago, petetong said:

This uk dr thinks pandemic is here globally and isn't impressed with UK preparations:

A very interesting video, all very neatly evidence based … right up until his last comments about the UK preparations and the NHS stating that we are "well prepared", where he said two things that really annoyed me:

1. A sarcastic "so we're well prepared...nothing to worry about then!".  No - that's NOT what well prepared means.  You can be well prepared for a tornado by hiding in the cellar.  It will still destroy your house.  Well prepared DOES NOT equal "nothing to worry about" and the NHS are not saying that.

2. He seems to have just decided the UK are not prepared based upon nothing.  He worked in an A&E department last year, and he felt they were struggling to cope with Business As Usual, and hence couldn't possibly be well prepared for COVID-19.  The truth is - he doesn't actually know what preparations the UK has made in the last two months.  He has no idea.  He isn't in a position to comment either way.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22
HOLA4423
23
HOLA4424

Love a bit of doom porn. Here's an interesting segment of a thread from https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/.

 
Quote

 

Poodlepopsowo
I left South Korea yesterday.... damn we had people coughing n vomiting on plane. Noone really checked us at sf..

 
geomeunbyul
Were you living there or just visiting?

Poodlepopsowo
Living

geomeunbyul
So you made the decision to leave? I live here too. Watching the situation but I’m not sure if it would be better to stay or leave. Could be escaping the situation and either spreading it to family or landing in an equally bad situation.


Poodlepopsowo

Honestly. Leave. Now. Its spiraling out of control. I dont regret my decision. If your a foreigner, they can deny you health care...I got a letter form my govt about people being denied. So...be careful. I have never been so scared on a plane my life. Even flight attendance who started off no masks...all have gloves n masks by the end... with them asking if someone on board w as adr or nurse because someone was seriously ill.

 

geomeunbyul

I’ll message you.

 

sushimoney

Where did u fly into? Please say east coast

 

Poodlepopsowo

San Francisco. We got off plane. Flight attendants looked scared. One women coughed so hard vomited in bathroom post flight....noone at SF. Had masks


heyheoy


Wow that seems scary, flight attendant didnt had thermometers to check those people temperature?? Not even in your arrival?? wtf

 

 

 

 
Link to comment
Share on other sites

24
HOLA4425

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.




×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information