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Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?


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5 hours ago, longgone said:

If its 800-1000 official covid19 numbers in reality it`s around 2.5k with home deaths

All cause mortality statistics (lagged by 1-2 weeks I think) are reporting about 5k per week more deaths than expected for this time of year. Perhaps in a couple of weeks we will see 2.5x7=17.5k more deaths per week than expected in that dataset but we aren't there yet.

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4 hours ago, RentingForever said:

The figures I've seen say that 38% of hospitalisations are obese. Which sounds a lot until you realise that 29% of the population are obese. So yes, probably an increased risk, but not a big one. 

Also people tend to put on weight as they get older, I saw an article that said over 40% of pensioners are obese, so probably not a risk factor at all. Or at least not until you reach the level where even a general anaesthetic is a risk.  

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5 hours ago, Sour Mash said:

Early on it was the more right-of-centre people who were warning about the oncoming pandemic.  The left didn't have a clue, too busy worrying about Brexit or impeaching Trump.

Then once it hit, the people who had no idea it was coming panicked en-masse and started demanding all sorts of authoritarianism to protect them, mainly out of total 'rabbit in the headlights' fear but there's also a component of authoritarian-loving tendancies too.

Those who adjusted to the oncoming crisis back in January are now looking ahead as to how best to manage it (yes, it's very serious but it's NOT the end of civilisation as we know it) and look to what happens after the immediate crisis of a huge influx of sick subsides.

  Ridiculously over-authoritarian 'pandemic-theatre'  measures don't help anybody - harassing hill walkers miles from anywhere with drones or patrol parks telling people not to sunbathe for example.

I think that like Brexit (e.g. Corbyn is a lifelong eurosceptic and not right wing), there's more to the politics of lockdown than just the left-right axis. From what I have seen on social media, anti-lockdown seems to come from right authoritarians and left libertarians and pro-lockdown comes from left authoritarians and right libertarians.

I think left libertarians are also sceptical and consider much of what the state is doing to be 'pandemic theatre' and unnecessary curtailment of personal freedom while right authoritarians trust the state to handle things adequately out of lockdown and are hard-nosed enough to deal with the human cost. Left authoritarians definitely do seem fearful and are willing to put everybody through huge expense/inconvenience to save any amount of human life while right libertarians seem to have reached a kind of resignation that with this virus around people are going to self-lockdown anyway so the state might as well do it in a managed way.

Edited by Dorkins
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13 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

All cause mortality statistics (lagged by 1-2 weeks I think) are reporting about 5k per week more deaths than expected for this time of year. Perhaps in a couple of weeks we will see 2.5x7=17.5k more deaths per week than expected in that dataset but we aren't there yet.

Potentially more i`m sure the death rate is higher than normal but its no where near the reaction of relentless reporting by the BBC. 

Nothing else is on the news ever. Not even our Scum bag MP`s ability to claim 10k for sitting at home. 

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6 hours ago, The Spaniard said:

I am currently intrigued by the fact that less than 1% of the UK population (approx. 67M) dies each year.

Naively, this would seem to push the average age at death towards 100+ years in contrast to the reported (approx.) 80 years.

I realize that we do not have a steady state population but how can this big discrepancy be accounted for? 

The UK currently has a relatively small elderly (80+) population, could be a result of the fairly low birth rates the UK had in the 1930s:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/livebirths/articles/trendsinbirthsanddeathsoverthelastcentury/2015-07-15

Looking at the graph, the current death rate of about 600k per year is almost exactly the same as the birth rate 85 years ago.

I expect the number of deaths per year will go up a lot when the late 1940s and 1960s baby booms pass 80 years of age, could see >800k deaths per year when those cohorts are elderly.

Edited by Dorkins
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1 hour ago, winkie said:

What is the difference between a large store open in a shopping mall or centre to a large store open outside?

Wearing gloves and masks? they have been saying for weeks they make no difference (I don't believe them).....

International flights....people have been flying in for sometime now from all kinds of places all with all kinds of risk...work to return, I am not sure if will be return to old normal......a new normal.;)

I don’t know I don’t make the bloody rules ??

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1 hour ago, ticket2ride said:

Interesting. Where's that from @Greg Bowman?

May 22 is Friday, last day before half term.

Edit: says "malls" so presumably US.

 

It was actually from the daily mash but also corresponds even through they won’t admit with what a few civil servants Friends believe reading between the lines when we chat 

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21 minutes ago, dragging boot straps said:

  You sad little weasel. It was in the newspaper. Pretending you have contacts. Tax evading weasel.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-8210959/Has-Boriss-guru-key-getting-economy-lockdown.html

 

Dr Gerard Lyons is Chief Economic Strategist at Netwealth. He is also on the Board of Bank of China (UK) 

https://globalvisionuk.com/the-traffic-light-route-to-ending-the-economic-lockdown/

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3 hours ago, Sour Mash said:

That said, I would suggest that a lot of lives have actually been saved by people staying at home - fewer fatalities from road traffic accidents and work related accidents probably add up to a fair number of people.  Also, seasonal Flu has probably been very much diminished, I know it was virtually wiped out in Singapore.  It does kill a fair few on a regular basis.

Road traffic deaths are about 2000 per year so in a month of lockdown that's only a couple of hundred avoided at best. Not many work-related deaths these days, HSE reckons about 150 per year so in a month you're talking about a dozen people. April is well past peak flu season in the UK and this winter was mild for flu deaths anyway, not a bad strain. I'd guess that each month of lockdown is saving perhaps 200-300 people who would have died of the causes you listed, but then there may be more deaths due to domestic violence, suicide, substance abuse etc.

Edited by Dorkins
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6 hours ago, Peter Hun said:

Its seems to be based on intelligence/education.

Why may seem a little unfair, but less educated leavers are more likely to be economically affected by the lock down. 

The less educated leavers are also more likely to struggle with the logic of dealing with a pandemic. They also fall into the category of the I’m alright Jack mindset so fail to realise any significance or consequence beyond their nose. 

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35 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

All cause mortality statistics (lagged by 1-2 weeks I think) are reporting about 5k per week more deaths than expected for this time of year. Perhaps in a couple of weeks we will see 2.5x7=17.5k more deaths per week than expected in that dataset but we aren't there yet.

ONS data here:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales

It looks like its normally about 10/11K pw at this time of year, 12-14K during what is presumably the NHS's yearly flu melt-down.

We're at circa 7K Covid - so presumably they were worried about exceeding 10K-20K Covid + other mortalities. However I'd imagine that with people staying at home that potentially messes up the 'normal' pattern so it wouldn't be a simple case of 10K+Covid.

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51 minutes ago, dragging boot straps said:

  You sad little weasel. It was in the newspaper. Pretending you have contacts. Tax evading weasel.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-8210959/Has-Boriss-guru-key-getting-economy-lockdown.html

 

??? - i think I said it was from The daily mash you plonker and now consider this if I can afford to pay a £50k retro tax bill because unilaterally the government  changed the rules - doesn’t it compute in your little monkey brain that I just my meet the odd senior figure or have mates in the civil service 

Are you jealous that I can afford the back tax or the fact I earnt enough for it to be due in the first place ?

? - the trouble is what you don’t get is HMRC are quite reasonable not spiteful little oiks  like you my friend 

 

Edited by GregBowman
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47 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Also people tend to put on weight as they get older, I saw an article that said over 40% of pensioners are obese, so probably not a risk factor at all. Or at least not until you reach the level where even a general anaesthetic is a risk.  

Obesity is a clear risk, think of it this way, it's all mechanical, I studied some physiological at uni.

The lungs provide the heart/body with oxygen.

1st man is 10 stone healthy weight.

2nd man is 20 stone unhealthy and obese.

Both get coronavirus, their lung capacity to absorb oxygen is reduced by 50%.

So the 1st mans heart compensates for the lack of oxygen by increasing its rate from 60bpm to 120bpm.

However the 2nds mans heart carrying an extra 10 stone, now needs to increase to 240bpm (as that extra fat needs a supply also, which it won't do, rather it will increase to a point where it can maintain rhythm.

The 2nds mans body is effectively being starved of oxygen (as the heart cannot compensate effectively), so to increase oxygen absorption, they are put on a ventilator which only supplies oxygen and not other gases which are found in the air,  to increase absorption.

However theres more problems, obese people tend to be prediabetes, so there blood is thick with fat and their arties are narrower.

This obese man also has a unhealthy heart from lack of exercise and living a sedentary lifestyle, his heart does not contact with the same force, so is unable to push the same volume blood around the body as the 1st man, coupled with having twice the demand...

His organs, are all given extra work to do compensate for the lack of oxygen, kidney failure may occur, his immune response isn't as effective as his blood is all fatty. ..

You can see clearly why the man who is obese is clearly at more risk, however there are so many other factors involved. 

 

 

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18 hours ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

Do NOT put water or fluid on your masks as it destroys the integrity of the filter. Just hang them up after use, preferably in the sunshine, for a couple of days. 

Yeah, they just disintegrate when you get snot or saliva on them don't they?  er, no actually.  They're not baby nappies of ladies' hygiene products with water reacting chemicals built in. 

They are close woven or non-woven matrices that will pass gaseaous molecules but hold on to bigger stuff.  If you are employed as a technical scientist by 3M, Kimberley Clark or someone else making masks, then I bow to your expertise.  Otherwise, a snotty mask left hanging in the sunshine will still be a snotty mask next time you put it on.

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3 hours ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

I'd say anyone who can run a few km at a reasonable pace is probably better placed than the average.

It might help you get out of ICU but its not a factor whether you end up in ICU in the first place

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25 minutes ago, Stainless Sam said:

Yeah, they just disintegrate when you get snot or saliva on them don't they?  er, no actually.  They're not baby nappies of ladies' hygiene products with water reacting chemicals built in. 

They are close woven or non-woven matrices that will pass gaseaous molecules but hold on to bigger stuff.  If you are employed as a technical scientist by 3M, Kimberley Clark or someone else making masks, then I bow to your expertise.  Otherwise, a snotty mask left hanging in the sunshine will still be a snotty mask next time you put it on.

Are you an expert ?

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12 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

It might help you get out of ICU but its not a factor whether you end up in ICU in the first place

Though not heard of any elite athletes keeling over.  Though over training can reduce immunity, I suspect they have higher lung capacity and better oxygen transfer. 

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43 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

Obesity is a clear risk, think of it this way, it's all mechanical, I studied some physiological at uni.

The lungs provide the heart/body with oxygen.

1st man is 10 stone healthy weight.

2nd man is 20 stone unhealthy and obese.

Both get coronavirus, their lung capacity to absorb oxygen is reduced by 50%.

So the 1st mans heart compensates for the lack of oxygen by increasing its rate from 60bpm to 120bpm.

However the 2nds mans heart carrying an extra 10 stone, now needs to increase to 240bpm (as that extra fat needs a supply also, which it won't do, rather it will increase to a point where it can maintain rhythm.

Yep 240 bpm would definitely put the needle in the red, never got that high in even my 20s when I was an oarsman - may be 220 down the straight, but now happy to top out at 185 on a sprint. 

Edited by Mikhail Liebenstein
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16 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

Though not heard of any elite athletes keeling over.

Italy's Patient 0 was an elite athlete. Many of the younger COVID patients are extremely fit.

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