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Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?


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13 hours ago, Riedquat said:

I suppose it's not too terrible if it's entirely voluntary and doesn't go any further (no "can't have this if you don't have the app"), but I'm glad I don't have a mobile phone.

By their nature the app is going to be extremely intrusive.

South Korea's Covid tracking app

 

Quote

Upon the discovery of a confirmed case of COVID-19 in South Korea, health authorities conduct an epidemiological survey to determine the point of infection and possible close contacts. This process begins with an interview and is enriched using credit card transaction data, mobile phone tracking, and CCTV, which can be provided by private business owners and employers. The result is a detailed hour-by-hour reconstruction of the individual’s whereabouts in the days leading up to the confirmation of infection. In some instances, data processors can even determine whether the person in question was wearing a mask at specific times inside certain venues, suggesting that business owners and employers disclose personally identifiable images to the government. ...

All of this is done within a matter of hours. Moreover, this data is disclosed to the public via alerts that are sent to smartphones in every district in which a confirmed case has traveled.

And that's just the disclosed stuff. Will the UK public accept this?

Edited by ticket2ride
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2 hours ago, Peter Hun said:

Targeted Herd Immunity.

confirms the suspicion that NHS staff are being infected on purpose. Keep their kids at school and infect all the key workers. 
 

This is precisely what is happening now.

Surely it can't be common sense to allow even one carer who needs to have close contact with already sick people to go home to quite possibly infect the family they live with.....

I recall when for a while we were told not to go to the pub but the decision was taken not to close pubs....another nonsensical action.?

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2 hours ago, The Preacherman said:

I think he was genuinely unwell with extreme flu like symptoms. Whether he really needed hospitalisation I doubt. I suspect recuperation for him will take the rest of April. 

That is my overwhelming gut feeling. However, how could they keep such a subterfuge a secret?

Perhaps explaining to the hospital staff that a subterfuge is necessary to make the people understand the seriousness of the situation would do the trick?

Or perhaps there was completely transparent reporting, with no spin at all?

Who knows, you never know when a liar is lying as sometimes they tell the truth.

Edited by Bruce Banner
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2 hours ago, The Preacherman said:

I think he was genuinely unwell with extreme flu like symptoms. Whether he really needed hospitalisation I doubt. I suspect recuperation for him will take the rest of April. 

COVID is mild until it becomes serious in a very short amount of time in a minority of patients. Obesity seems to be a factor in this and Bojo is obese,

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4 hours ago, GregBowman said:

I agree with all the points re the Telegraph going downhill but you don’t have to be an investment banker to think that without a clear and soonish lockdown exit strategy trashing the economy will cause more deaths than the actual disease - the call is definitely from people who will be ok but millions of lives in lower social economic groups will be blighted many tragically through suicide, domestic abuse and depression  

The people who complain there are better off. This is not about them showing compassion and worrying about worse off. They worry about maintaining their expensive lifestyles.

15% lost of GDP is not a situation where some people will need to die because of the economic hardship. The issue is how to divide the remaining 85% so that everybody can survive. Only 50% of GDP is used to pay wages/salaries (60% employee compensation). There is a lot of a retained profit, which can be used get through this period. On top of this, the private consumption on non-essential good/services can also be reduced/redirected. An average houselhold (2.3 people) can survive on 2k per month, with 27mln of them that's 670bln per year. The total employee compensation received by household is 1.2bln, 500bln could be spend more wisely.

 

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9 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Over the past 5 or so years the Telegraph has been it what seems like terminal decline. It's a pity as I grew up reading the Telegraph and even though I rarely agreed with the editorials/opinion pieces they were well written and occasionally did force me to rethink my views on topics. Now we get almost Express levels of bias, bigotry and stupidity.     

?‍♂️
 

 

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18 minutes ago, slawek said:

The people who complain there are better off. This is not about them showing compassion and worrying about worse off. They worry about maintaining their expensive lifestyles.

On top of this, the private consumption on non-essential good/services can also be reduced/redirected.

 

Like the guy with a private island and spaceship who wants a bailout so he can maintain his lifestyle.

Yes, Richard Branson.

Edited by ticket2ride
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It's really interesting to see how many of the conspiracy/brexit gang are anti lockdown. I thought it was us remainers who only cared about the economy?

The reality is lockdown hysteria is comparable to brexit hysteria. The longer we lockdown for, the more we flatten the curve to a point where it's possible to play "whack a mole" with new cases once peoole do go back to work. 

Ending the lockdown now will just lead to in and out lockdowns and total uncertainty for months and even years on end. If we all stand firm, keep the lockdown running as long as it needs to and key the government do its best to keep the economy frozen in aspic there's a genuine chance that we will be back to a semblance of normal by summer and posdibly normal by autumn. 

Of course it will be shit for a number of people but at least if we have actually burnt the virus out to a manageable level there's a chance we can rebuild. Caving into mouth frothing hysteria about great depression 2.0 too early will simply leave us in a position where we are in and out of lock down at unpredictable times which, along with the toll on our health service, will be far worse for the economy in the long term. 

In short we are just going to have to hang in there. A bit of that famous British stoicism, stiff upper lip and, dare I say it, bulldog spirit wouldn't go amiss in some quarters right now. 

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8 minutes ago, Hullabaloo82 said:

It's really interesting to see how many of the conspiracy/brexit gang are anti lockdown. I thought it was us remainers who only cared about the economy?...

? Yes, such correlations have been noted before:

 

 

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19 minutes ago, Hullabaloo82 said:

It's really interesting to see how many of the conspiracy/brexit gang are anti lockdown. I thought it was us remainers who only cared about the economy?

The reality is lockdown hysteria is comparable to brexit hysteria. The longer we lockdown for, the more we flatten the curve to a point where it's possible to play "whack a mole" with new cases once peoole do go back to work. 

Ending the lockdown now will just lead to in and out lockdowns and total uncertainty for months and even years on end. If we all stand firm, keep the lockdown running as long as it needs to and key the government do its best to keep the economy frozen in aspic there's a genuine chance that we will be back to a semblance of normal by summer and posdibly normal by autumn. 

Of course it will be shit for a number of people but at least if we have actually burnt the virus out to a manageable level there's a chance we can rebuild. Caving into mouth frothing hysteria about great depression 2.0 too early will simply leave us in a position where we are in and out of lock down at unpredictable times which, along with the toll on our health service, will be far worse for the economy in the long term. 

In short we are just going to have to hang in there. A bit of that famous British stoicism, stiff upper lip and, dare I say it, bulldog spirit wouldn't go amiss in some quarters right now. 

The inability of Remainers to move on from Brexit, even in the face of this pandemic, has been something to behold. The bile, the resentment, the hand-wringing continues. It's all so limp-of-wrist.

After 5 years, with the right therapist and the right attitude, you may - one day - finally let your referendum defeat go.

A grown man leapt into the gutter in fear as I ran past him yesterday evening - on the opposite side of the pavement, but a mere 1.5 metres away, unavoidably encroaching into his Matt Hancock-prescribed arbitrary safe zone.

This pandemic seems to be eroding the little remaining confidence of an already broken and emasculated Remain cohort.

Edited by 50sQuiff
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1 hour ago, giesahoose said:

If enough people have the app and it's used properly people would be able isolate very early in the disease, before they show symptoms and potentially before they are infectious to other people. That will have a massive impact in reducing infections once lockdown is lifted

Exactly my point - more than the normal quota of anti state interventionists on here not sure typical - the lockdown has been better observed than predicted and phone addiction is well documented - personally think it will be well received if leads to loosening of the lock down 

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2 hours ago, ticket2ride said:

As others have noted, the current Government is hand picked for one purpose. They are largely a venal bunch not primarily motivated by what they can do to improve the country for the majority of the population.

Patel and Raab are co-authors of Britannia Unchained, which argued that the British workers are shirkers who need less rights and protections in order to make them more productive.

These people are not going to act in your best interest unless by some miracle they temporarily overlap with their own interests.

It has been noted that Tory party funding has shifted in the last few years to be more reliant on hedge funds and less on traditional sources such as manufacturing.

So it should be no surprise to see Rees-Mogg et al doing well out of the Coronavirus crisis as hedge fund disaster capitalists are set up to react quickly to exploit such situations.

We saw this when Patel said she was sorry people felt there was a lack of PPE.

The hedge funds will decide it's time for us to end lockdown.

Perhaps but just as likely public opinion manifested by more people getting out and about can’t arrest and lock everyone up 

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17 minutes ago, 50sQuiff said:

The inability of Remainers to move on from Brexit, even in the face of this pandemic, has been something to behold. The bile, the resentment, the hand-wringing continues. It's all so limp-of-wrist.

After 5 years, with the right therapist and the right attitude, you may - one day - finally let your referendum defeat go.

Wrong thread, but just to be clear...

Unremarkably, Remainers, who are arguably in the majority, do not agree with your vitriolic self righteous twaddle.

Edited by Bruce Banner
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56 minutes ago, slawek said:

The people who complain there are better off. This is not about them showing compassion and worrying about worse off. They worry about maintaining their expensive lifestyles.

15% lost of GDP is not a situation where some people will need to die because of the economic hardship. The issue is how to divide the remaining 85% so that everybody can survive. Only 50% of GDP is used to pay wages/salaries (60% employee compensation). There is a lot of a retained profit, which can be used get through this period. On top of this, the private consumption on non-essential good/services can also be reduced/redirected. An average houselhold (2.3 people) can survive on 2k per month, with 27mln of them that's 670bln per year. The total employee compensation received by household is 1.2bln, 500bln could be spend more wisely.

 

I think we agree ? 

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14 minutes ago, 50sQuiff said:

The inability of Remainers to move on from Brexit, even in the face of this pandemic, has been something to behold. The bile, the resentment, the hand-wringing continues. It's all so limp-of-wrist.

After 5 years, with the right therapist and the right attitude, you may - one day - finally let your referendum defeat go.

The divide has very little to do with the referendum result itself.

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I see that the post accusing me of posting "anti-vaxxer"  content has itself been removed. Thank you to those responsible.

For the record I am neither a kneejerk "anti-vaxxer" nor a kneejerk "pro-vaxxer".

The pressing contemporary issue that I think merits serious examination is Bill Gates exercising his enormous wealth and influence to promote and implement apparently highly dangerous and sometimes catastrophic vaccination programs. Here is Bill Still, whose integrity is well established (though you might disagree with his politics), cataloguing the record of Gates' vaccination disasters. Skip to 1:05 to avoid the ads.

(Bill Still is author of The Money Masters and a former contributor to HPC, posting his authoritative knowledge of money reform and monetary history on many threads.)

 

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50 minutes ago, DarkHorseWaits-NoMore said:

? Yes, such correlations have been noted before:

 

 

The link is impatience/selfishness, isn't it? Dash of intolerance thrown in for good measure. 

"Just leave now, get brexit done" etc comes from the same place as "what's the problem? It's only the weak who will die". 

In both cases rushing things has or will inevitably lead to a colossal ****** up. 

 

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