Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

[Snafu]

8 hours ago, The Preacherman said:

The odd shoes photo was a fake new photo shop job. 

No she did wear two left shoes. Check the Snopes article.

[Snafu]

The Spaniard you're posting a lot of rubbish under the auspice of "here is another view". 

[thirdwave]

2 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Could just put them in a conventional oven set at 60C that would inactivate the virus in pretty short order.

At my wife's hospital people are reusing masks that have just been left hanging up for 2 days, apparently that's better than trying to clean or disinfect them.  

Duke University has found a way of decontaminating N95 masks using Hydrogen Peroxide. We should be looking at something similar

https://www.safety.duke.edu/

[Stainless Sam]

Synthetic materials (i.e. masks) won't generally heat up in a microwave.  But we all know water does. 

Spray mask with water, chuck in microwave, water boils, kills virus and anything else in there short of mad cow disease (a non-viral, non-bacterial pathogen).  Allow freshly steaming mask to cool before putting back on face.

One word of warning - beware masks with the little bit of metal at the top to bend around the bridge of your nose.  Like all metal placed in a microwave it could cause all sorts of problems, up to and including blowing your microwave to bits.

By the way, microwave communications are at a different frequency and at a far lower effective  power than your kitchen microwave, which is basically a cavity magnetron tuned and focussed to heat small volumes of water.  Having said that, the big, golf-ball, cold war radar domes at Fylingdales in North Yorkshire used to have a "do not fly" warning for private aircraft.  It wasn't because of the risk of aerial spying, it was to avoid GA pilots who got too low and too close getting fried by the massive power they were pumping out across the North Sea.

 

Edited April 12, 2020 by Stainless Sam

[The Spaniard]

42 minutes ago, Snafu said:

The Spaniard you're posting a lot of rubbish under the auspice of "here is another view". 

Possibly rubbish, possibly not.

I admit that I do like to look at different sides of an issue and that I lack your sense of certainty.

If this discomforts you, then please just block my posts.

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

58 minutes ago, Stainless Sam said:

Synthetic materials (i.e. masks) won't generally heat up in a microwave.  But we all know water does. 

Spray mask with water, chuck in microwave, water boils, kills virus and anything else in there short of mad cow disease (a non-viral, non-bacterial pathogen).  Allow freshly steaming mask to cool before putting back on face.

One word of warning - beware masks with the little bit of metal at the top to bend around the bridge of your nose.  Like all metal placed in a microwave it could cause all sorts of problems, up to and including blowing your microwave to bits.

By the way, microwave communications are at a different frequency and at a far lower effective  power than your kitchen microwave, which is basically a cavity magnetron tuned and focussed to heat small volumes of water.  Having said that, the big, golf-ball, cold war radar domes at Fylingdales in North Yorkshire used to have a "do not fly" warning for private aircraft.  It wasn't because of the risk of aerial spying, it was to avoid GA pilots who got too low and too close getting fried by the massive power they were pumping out across the North Sea.

 

Do NOT put water or fluid on your masks as it destroys the integrity of the filter. Just hang them up after use, preferably in the sunshine, for a couple of days. 

[slawek]

A part of me (that evil one) enjoys seeing Tories supporters so keen to die to save the economy

The top comment: 

"Lockdown MUST stop. 

If not, there's an agenda we're not being told about. 

Deaths are nowhere near 'pandemic levels'. 

But peoples lives and businesses are being ruined. Stop this madness. "

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/04/12/chancellor-warns-cabinet-tipping-point-coronavirus-control-economy/

 

[smash]

11 minutes ago, slawek said:

A part of me (that evil one) enjoys seeing Tories supporters so keen to die to save the economy

The top comment: 

"Lockdown MUST stop. 

If not, there's an agenda we're not being told about. 

Deaths are nowhere near 'pandemic levels'. 

But peoples lives and businesses are being ruined. Stop this madness. "

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/04/12/chancellor-warns-cabinet-tipping-point-coronavirus-control-economy/

 

Yes, but who takes Telegraph comments as in any way representative? That place went full blown screwey as feck 4 plus years ago. You might as well be reading comments on the absolute dregs of social media like youtube videos with titles such as "Feminism is Killing People" and "The Great Climate Hoax - Conspiracy EXPLAINED"

[Confusion of VIs]

15 minutes ago, smash said:

Yes, but who takes Telegraph comments as in any way representative? That place went full blown screwey as feck 4 plus years ago. You might as well be reading comments on the absolute dregs of social media like youtube videos with titles such as "Feminism is Killing People" and "The Great Climate Hoax - Conspiracy EXPLAINED"

Over the past 5 or so years the Telegraph has been it what seems like terminal decline. It's a pity as I grew up reading the Telegraph and even though I rarely agreed with the editorials/opinion pieces they were well written and occasionally did force me to rethink my views on topics. Now we get almost Express levels of bias, bigotry and stupidity.     

[kzb]

4 hours ago, Dorkins said:

The statement about benzalkonium chloride seems to be in this CDC advice:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/hand-hygiene-faq.html

Which references this coronavirus paper:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0195670120300463

Which says this in the abstract: "Other biocidal agents such as 0.05–0.2% benzalkonium chloride or 0.02% chlorhexidine digluconate are less effective."

I would guess it's just a concentration thing, 0.05-0.2% benzalkonium chloride may not be enough to dissolve all the lipids in a real life situation of a sweaty, greasy person taking an uncontrolled dollop/squirt of hand sanitiser and rubbing it about on their hands whereas 70% ethanol rubbed everywhere is enough.

The funny thing is that quaternary ammonium disinfectants similar to BAC are listed on the EPA recommended products list.

https://www.epa.gov/pesticide-registration/list-n-disinfectants-use-against-sars-cov-2

[smash]

3 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Over the past 5 or so years the Telegraph has been it what seems like terminal decline. It's a pity as I grew up reading the Telegraph and even though I rarely agreed with the editorials/opinion pieces they were well written and occasionally did force me to rethink my views on topics. Now we get almost Express levels of bias, bigotry and stupidity.     

The place is a joke and I'm sure there are loads of committed historic Telegraph readers who would agree with you. The Barclays have offered it up for sale i think. There will be a Russian buyer I'm sure.

[GregBowman]

4 hours ago, slawek said:

A part of me (that evil one) enjoys seeing Tories supporters so keen to die to save the economy

The top comment: 

"Lockdown MUST stop. 

If not, there's an agenda we're not being told about. 

Deaths are nowhere near 'pandemic levels'. 

But peoples lives and businesses are being ruined. Stop this madness. "

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/04/12/chancellor-warns-cabinet-tipping-point-coronavirus-control-economy/

 

I agree with all the points re the Telegraph going downhill but you don’t have to be an investment banker to think that without a clear and soonish lockdown exit strategy trashing the economy will cause more deaths than the actual disease - the call is definitely from people who will be ok but millions of lives in lower social economic groups will be blighted many tragically through suicide, domestic abuse and depression  

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

5 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Over the past 5 or so years the Telegraph has been it what seems like terminal decline. It's a pity as I grew up reading the Telegraph and even though I rarely agreed with the editorials/opinion pieces they were well written and occasionally did force me to rethink my views on topics. Now we get almost Express levels of bias, bigotry and stupidity.     

Agree. It was my preferred paper 20/25 years ago, now it just a rubbish opinion piece for shock journos. Haven’t bought it for 15 years.

[Peter Hun]

12 hours ago, ticket2ride said:

UK government using confidential patient data in coronavirus response

Firm belonging to Cummings' pals harvesting confidential patient data.

Wonder which groups were supposed to be targeted? ?

Targeted Herd Immunity.

confirms the suspicion that NHS staff are being infected on purpose. Keep their kids at school and infect all the key workers. 
 

This is precisely what is happening now.

[The Preacherman]

13 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

Targeted Herd Immunity.

confirms the suspicion that NHS staff are being infected on purpose. Keep their kids at school and infect all the key workers. 
 

This is precisely what is happening now.

This may have been the case to start with but I'm not sure the government has a strategy now. 

Johnson has gone from valiantly battling with the job through illness to 'ICU'  to recuperating at Chequer. Meanwhile ministers are scrabbling around trying to divert attention from the lack of cohesive strategy with gimmicks such as a tracking app. 

[Peter Hun]

28 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

Agree. It was my preferred paper 20/25 years ago, now it just a rubbish opinion piece for shock journos. Haven’t bought it for 15 years.

Telegraph has become a joke among other newspaper staff apparently. Readership has halved and they are desperate for subscribers.

(No need to pay if you ’view page source’  on locked pages )

[Si1]

7 hours ago, slawek said:

A part of me (that evil one) enjoys seeing Tories supporters so keen to die to save the economy

The top comment: 

"Lockdown MUST stop. 

If not, there's an agenda we're not being told about. 

Deaths are nowhere near 'pandemic levels'. 

But peoples lives and businesses are being ruined. Stop this madness. "

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/04/12/chancellor-warns-cabinet-tipping-point-coronavirus-control-economy/

 

Tldr: I can't afford my mental mortgage, car finance and BTL and don't have any contingency SOMETHING MUST BE DONE

[Peter Hun]

7 minutes ago, The Preacherman said:

This may have been the case to start with but I'm not sure the government has a strategy now. 

Johnson has gone from valiantly battling with the job through illness to 'ICU'  to recuperating at Chequer. Meanwhile ministers are scrabbling around trying to divert attention from the lack of cohesive strategy with gimmicks such as a tracking app. 

The reality of cases and deaths doubling every three days means the two weeks of herd immunity strategy is already locked in for the next year to eighteen months.

There is insufficient PPE for key workers and far too many infected people to stop it now.

The battle now is to keep total death count at 500k or less for all the waves. Drugs, hope immunity is long standing and a vaccine.

The real stars of the U.K. response has to be the British people. Lockdown response has been brilliant. Lions led by Donkeys.

[btl_hater]

Does anyone still think that our glorious PM was really ever showing anything more than mild symptoms?

[The Preacherman]

12 minutes ago, btl_hater said:

Does anyone still think that our glorious PM was really ever showing anything more than mild symptoms?

I think he was genuinely unwell with extreme flu like symptoms. Whether he really needed hospitalisation I doubt. I suspect recuperation for him will take the rest of April. 

[btl_hater]

8 minutes ago, The Preacherman said:

I think he was genuinely unwell with extreme flu like symptoms. Whether he really needed hospitalisation I doubt. I suspect recuperation for him will take the rest of April. 

Oh I’m sure it will

[GregBowman]

45 minutes ago, The Preacherman said:

This may have been the case to start with but I'm not sure the government has a strategy now. 

Johnson has gone from valiantly battling with the job through illness to 'ICU'  to recuperating at Chequer. Meanwhile ministers are scrabbling around trying to divert attention from the lack of cohesive strategy with gimmicks such as a tracking app. 

Not sure the app is a gimmick many countries are looking at the idea. Agree no apparent strategy but weirdly what’s the rush ? We have no cure so distancing and isolation can be the only tactic whilst a 1000 people die a day. The numbers are simple when the curve for resources gets close to the predicted requirement - lockdown will be eased - pretty clear to me in fact it feels like an election campaign with the politicians obliged to say something every day  whether useful or not

Edited April 13, 2020 by GregBowman

[Mignal]

1 hour ago, The Preacherman said:

I think he was genuinely unwell with extreme flu like symptoms. Whether he really needed hospitalisation I doubt. I suspect recuperation for him will take the rest of April. 

What a hero though. Churchillian, even though he looked sht scared.

[ticket2ride]

1 hour ago, GregBowman said:

Not sure the app is a gimmick many countries are looking at the idea. Agree no apparent strategy but weirdly what’s the rush ? We have no cure so distancing and isolation can be the only tactic whilst a 1000 people die a day. The numbers are simple when the curve for resources gets close to the predicted requirement - lockdown will be eased - pretty clear to me in fact it feels like an election campaign with the politicians obliged to say something every day  whether useful or not

As others have noted, the current Government is hand picked for one purpose. They are largely a venal bunch not primarily motivated by what they can do to improve the country for the majority of the population.

Patel and Raab are co-authors of Britannia Unchained, which argued that the British workers are shirkers who need less rights and protections in order to make them more productive.

These people are not going to act in your best interest unless by some miracle they temporarily overlap with their own interests.

It has been noted that Tory party funding has shifted in the last few years to be more reliant on hedge funds and less on traditional sources such as manufacturing.

So it should be no surprise to see Rees-Mogg et al doing well out of the Coronavirus crisis as hedge fund disaster capitalists are set up to react quickly to exploit such situations.

Quote

The shock really is the virus itself. And it has been managed in a way that is maximising confusion and minimising protection. I don’t think that’s a conspiracy, that’s just the way the U.S. government and Trump have utterly mismanaged this crisis. Trump has so far treated this not as a public health crisis but as a crisis of perception, and a potential problem for his reelection.

We saw this when Patel said she was sorry people felt there was a lack of PPE.

The hedge funds will decide it's time for us to end lockdown.

Edited April 13, 2020 by ticket2ride

[giesahoose]

1 hour ago, GregBowman said:

Not sure the app is a gimmick many countries are looking at the idea. Agree no apparent strategy but weirdly what’s the rush ? We have no cure so distancing and isolation can be the only tactic whilst a 1000 people die a day. The numbers are simple when the curve for resources gets close to the predicted requirement - lockdown will be eased - pretty clear to me in fact it feels like an election campaign with the politicians obliged to say something every day  whether useful or not

If enough people have the app and it's used properly people would be able isolate very early in the disease, before they show symptoms and potentially before they are infectious to other people. That will have a massive impact in reducing infections once lockdown is lifted