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Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?


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53 minutes ago, slawek said:

Some guy is getting similar results to mine (see his graph below). This doesn't look very good, R0 is not low enough for this wave to end soon. There is a big uncertainty what the R0 value is as confirmed cases are unreliable, deaths lag cases by around 2 weeks. I think in 2-3 weeks we should have a better idea about R0. 

At the moment it looks like R0 could be even virtually 1 (based on confirmed cases), which means that it could take around 6 months for the outbreak to die out with around 100k deaths. 

I think there is no chance to relax a lockdown even a little as that would likely push R0 over 1.0, which would cause over 100k deaths. There is a real risk that people would start to behave less responsible, which will cause R0 to rise anyway, without any official change of the policy.  

hindcast/forecast

https://singletrackworld.com/forum/topic/wheres-the-coronavirus-were-all-going-to-die-conspiracy-thread/page/209/

Left them selves a hell of margin of error on that graph...

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11 minutes ago, The Preacherman said:

You can't forecast current infection rates using death rates. All you are doing is looking into to the past what was happening about 3 to 4 weeks ago. 

That is true but not quite. 

a) The lockdown is already starting to push deaths down, some of people dying now were infected after the lockdown. 

b) The ICL model is using data from other countries, including ones, which began their lockdowns earlier, and assumes that the lockdown impact on R is the same in the UK. 

c) We have confirmed cases, which lag infections 1-2 weeks but are less reliable.  They don't show any noticeable downtrend.

image.png.1132498d364ef864eef27eabd5bc8c9a.png

 

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3 hours ago, thirdwave said:

The plan is for the Excel Nightingale (and it's equivalent in Manchester) to eventually become an exclusive 4k bedded ICU unit for patients on mechanical ventilation- so they are expecting demand to outstrip supply at some point but we are not at that stage yet.

There is also some truth to @Mikhail Liebenstein 's claim on triaging. I know of a few places where the vast majority of elderly CoVID patients are being DNARed, which indirectly reduces the demand on ICU beds.

As for PPEs, my sister, brother in law and 2 cousins (all medics) have caught it in the past 2 weeks. A close family friend who is an ophthalmologist is currently in Intensive Care. So the infection rate among medics and nurses is horrendous and lack of appropriate PPE is certainly aggravating this.

The Nightingales are not ICU units. They lack much of the equipment you would find in an ICU and the skilled critical care staff. Ideally they will be used as a stepdown for recovering patients who no longer need IC. Less ideally people will be ventilated and left to see what happens without the personalised care, dialysis etc.

As for PPE, the UK has specified the bare minimum level of protection and from the continuing reports is often failing to meet that. Look at reports from a South Korean IC to see what you should expect of a first world country, dealing with an infection that is killing medical staff. Full suits and bubble helmets with positive pressure air supply.        

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1 hour ago, the_duke_of_hazzard said:

I also noticed she couldn't say 'ing', preferring 'in'. As in: 'includin', like a cockney without the dropped aitches. Not sure what that's about.

Sadiq Khan does the same thing but worse...it really irritates me and I don't know why.

 

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Yep, the UK continues to excel on all fronts as expected, in medical, resources and financial responses via competant govenounce, all going to plan.

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The number of people who have died from coronavirus in the UK has risen above 10,000.

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UK 'could have worst coronavirus death rate in the Europe'

Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust, said it was possible the UK could end up with the worst coronavirus death rate in Europe.

"Numbers in the UK have continued to go up," Sir Jeremy told the BBC's Andrew Marr Show.

"And yes, the UK is likely to be certainly one of the worst, if not the worst affected country in Europe."

He said continuing testing in the community would "buy you time" to deal with the crisis, giving an additional six to eight weeks to ensure health systems were up to capacity.

"Undoubtedly there are lessons to learn from that," Sir Jeremy said.

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Only 1.4% of the 300,000 applications for business support had been processed, here is how the UK is lagging behind other European countries...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-uk-news-death-toll-boris-johnson-lockdown-extended/

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40 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

The Nightingales are not ICU units. They lack much of the equipment you would find in an ICU and the skilled critical care staff. Ideally they will be used as a stepdown for recovering patients who no longer need IC. Less ideally people will be ventilated and left to see what happens without the personalised care, dialysis etc.

As for PPE, the UK has specified the bare minimum level of protection and from the continuing reports is often failing to meet that. Look at reports from a South Korean IC to see what you should expect of a first world country, dealing with an infection that is killing medical staff. Full suits and bubble helmets with positive pressure air supply.        

They are planning to have all their patients mechanically ventilated- it is not a step down unit. I know this from someone who is involved in setting the place up. I'm speaking to him again on Tuesday so will clarify.

Agree completely wrt PPE

Edited by thirdwave
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18 minutes ago, thirdwave said:

They are planning to have all their patients mechanically ventilated- it is not a step down unit. I know this from someone who is involved in setting the place up. I'm speaking to him again on Tuesday so will clarify.

Agree completely wrt PPE

Could you ask, how many patients they have had so far?

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10 minutes ago, Social Justice League said:

If the UK ends up having more deaths than anywhere else in Europe, then the current government is finished.

They are finished already imo.

I don’t think so. Keir is a darn sight better proposition than Corbyn but he needs to prove himself before people will switch from their fondness of the bumbling blonde blowhard. Do people even care about deaths unless it’s their own f&f? If they lose jobs and houses and holidays - now that could be a game changer. 

But we know the Cummings party won’t allow that.

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12 minutes ago, Social Justice League said:

If the UK ends up having more deaths than anywhere else in Europe, then the current government is finished.

They are finished already imo.

There is no election for another four years and our public seem surprisingly tolerant of ******ups by conservatives. They hold every other party to far higher standards.

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14 minutes ago, Social Justice League said:

If the UK ends up having more deaths than anywhere else in Europe, then the current government is finished.

They are finished already imo.

The UK has the third highest population in Europe, and only just behind France, so even if everywhere was equal then it would still be up there near the top.

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4 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

There is no election for another four years and our public seem surprisingly tolerant of ******ups by conservatives. They hold every other party to far higher standards.

Murdoch will save them one more time in 2025 before doing a 1997 ans switching to Labour in 2030. He changes sides the moment he sniffs any resentment against Tories. 

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1 hour ago, thirdwave said:

They are planning to have all their patients mechanically ventilated- it is not a step down unit. I know this from someone who is involved in setting the place up. I'm speaking to him again on Tuesday so will clarify.

Agree completely wrt PPE

That's how they may well be end up being used but that's plan B. Ideally they would be for people who no longer need the specialised  care available in an proper IC. In addition to not having much of the sophisticated equipment you would find in an IC unit they will have one sixth the number critical care staff per patient you would have in an IC unit.

If they end up just being used by patients requiring forced ventilation the recovery rates are going to be very low.  

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1 minute ago, The Preacherman said:

This is going to hit the generation that voted for Boris and Brexit hardest so I agree that they are toast already. 

Considering the lunatic alternatives? Well I suppose the younger generations do look even more clueless. They may have been trampled all over by the preceding generations but they more than capable of running off and hiding, calling for their mummies when asked to face reality.

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6 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

Considering the lunatic alternatives? Well I suppose the younger generations do look even more clueless. They may have been trampled all over by the preceding generations but they more than capable of running off and hiding, calling for their mummies when asked to face reality.

Unbelievable.

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UK government using confidential patient data in coronavirus response

Firm belonging to Cummings' pals harvesting confidential patient data.

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One NHS document suggests that, two weeks ago, Faculty considered running a computer simulation to assess the impact of a policy of “targeted herd immunity”.

Wonder which groups were supposed to be targeted? ?

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