Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

[MARTINX9]

11 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

On the Black Swan nature of this, it does seem to getting there. 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/01/26/coronavirus-becoming-contagious-chinese-health-authorities-warn/

You can be infected and infectious to others for up to two weeks before showing any symptoms - fever and a cough before it moves rapidly to severe pneumonia. Others can show symptoms as soon as a day or two.

So all this screening at airports is worthless - unless you quarantine them all for two weeks which is unlikely to be popular!

We haven't of course had any confirmed cases in the UK yet - perhaps those with symptoms have been given an appointment on the NHS with their GP in 3 weeks! And what is unusual about a cough and sore throat in January anyway probably one in five people will have those symptoms via a cold.

So there could be many here who have it but aren't showing any symptoms but have passed it on - particularly as most Chinese in the UK arriving back will generally live in densely populated parts of London and university towns where there is a lot more social activity.

Edited January 26, 2020 by MARTINX9

[jiltedjen]

tomorrow I’m going to stock up on some beans and a little extra supplies, they will get eaten eventually if there is no issue.

but the thing with panic is to make sure you panic first 

Edited January 26, 2020 by jiltedjen

[MARTINX9]

23 minutes ago, jiltedjen said:

tomorrow I’m going to stock up on some beans and a little extra supplies, they will get eaten eventually if there is no issue.

but the thing with panic is to make sure you panic first 

Some already have - hence the most useful N95 and N99 face masks selling out on amazon or very low on stock?

Maybe Poundland sell them?

Managed to get some - even if they don’t block the corona virus they are useful for diy or blocking dust if you have allergies in summer!

[jiltedjen]

I would imagine you would have to wear them now, and until the whole thing had blown over, and when with your family partner etc. 

I’m more thinking you get it, and NHS overwhelmed, as they can’t even deal with the boomers getting colds on mass most winters with endless black alerts, so you need to have enough easy food in stock to feed yourself to recover from it. 

cant help catching it, but you can be prepared if/when that happens. 

not much use if it does hit your local town and you think ‘bloody hell better get some supplies’ only to find your local supermarket is stripped bear by those nutters who panic buy stuff, then you head home, feeling perky, to get very ill, and not have enough strength to go buy more food or cook much. 

might as well get a few extra tins of beans and other ‘easy’ food sooner. 

Those masks are pretty horrible to wear. would be an interesting although scary experience to see the UK gov shut down towns and cities, close motorways, close non-vital places of work. 

 

Edited January 26, 2020 by jiltedjen

[slawek]

I think, it is critical now what is going to happen in densely populates metropolises on the east coast of China, Shanghai, Beijing and Guangzhou. Each of this region has around 50-100 confirmed cases. If China can't control the virus there then there is no way we are going to avoid a major global disaster.

Around 5 mln people left Wuhan, it is likely there are tens if not hundreds infected among them. 

[MarkG]

7 hours ago, MARTINX9 said:

Interesting to observe that almost all the recommended N99 face masks are sold out on Amazon UK.

Canada too. Last night there were some available, but 'usually ships in x weeks', not actually in stock. If we get to the point of having to wear masks, most people won't be able to get any.

[MancTom]

7 hours ago, MARTINX9 said:

Interesting to observe that almost all the recommended N99 face masks are sold out on Amazon UK.

Either someone is bulk buying them to make a potential profit later or there are more than the usual numbers taking precautions.

We shall see if they are needed.

Does make you think theoretically how a lockdown and public transport closure would work in a big city like London - we don’t have the structured society or trust in government the Chinese do. It could get quite bad quite quickly as criminal elements take over - summer 2011 isn’t that long ago!

 

Army and shoot to kill during curfews is the only way to shut down our country I fear. Police would be overwhelmed - they can't even cope with crime levels at the moment...criminals have free reign round where I live for burglary etc.

[MarkG]

Army's not big enough.

We should have stopped all travel from China a couple of weeks ago.

Edited January 26, 2020 by MarkG

[hotblack42]

45 minutes ago, MarkG said:

Army's not big enough.

We should have stopped all travel from China a couple of weeks ago.

Yes, definitely to travel point - apart from repatriation of brits into quarantine.

If this is a pandemic, 10,000 regulars freely using lethal force nationwide, would stop unauthorised movements almost immediately I would have thought.

 

 

[Roman Roady]

Black Swan event?? We shall know by Friday. I will be working from home this week.

[hotblack42]

23 minutes ago, Roman Roady said:

Black Swan event?? We shall know by Friday. I will be working from home this week.

I use Central line to commute Tue-Thu.  Decided to start & finish extra early using quiet trains for next week or so while this plays out.  Will switch to full remote working pronto if things get hairy..

[slawek]

29 minutes ago, Roman Roady said:

Black Swan event?? We shall know by Friday. I will be working from home this week.

I don't think there is any meaningful risk of being infected in the UK at the moment.  At the worst there may be tens of people infected, most likely a few or none in the whole UK.  

[slawek]

That is a good point. 

 

[rollover]

Quote

 A fifth US case of coronavirus has been confirmed

Another 28 have been reported across 12 other countries: Thailand (4), Taiwan (3), Singapore (3), France (3), Malaysia (3), Japan (3), South Korea (2), Vietnam (2), Nepal (1), Australia (4), Canada (1) and the US (5). 

Experts don't yet know how quickly the disease can spread from person-to-person, but a World Health Organisation (WHO) official has said it is transmitted faster than previously thought. 'We are now seeing second and third generation spread.'

Daily Mail

Not many cases have been confirmed around the globe so far, but it is spreading beyond China.

[Travisher]

5 hours ago, MARTINX9 said:

You can be infected and infectious to others for up to two weeks before showing any symptoms - fever and a cough before it moves rapidly to severe pneumonia. Others can show symptoms as soon as a day or two.

So all this screening at airports is worthless - unless you quarantine them all for two weeks which is unlikely to be popular!

When the COO came back from China (holiday) during the Sars outbreak we told him to stay away from the office for a week or so. It also led to a rewrite of the company policy on illness. If you are ill with a virus or other possibly transmittable disease, stay away from the office until it has passed. Applying this to flu and sniffles as well as Sars was a good thing as it prevented flu going round the office stopping loads of people working, at the cost of one person staying away - often working from home until they were better. Certainly beats being a muppet who turns up dosed up on lemsip and infecting the whole office.

[desertorchid]

50 minutes ago, slawek said:

That is a good point. 

 

Unbelievable that only a decade ago there was only about one direct flight a day between china and africa

 

still not many today when consider numbers on each continent.

[slawek]

The futures market has opened with gold up 1% and S&P500 down 1%.

Edited January 26, 2020 by slawek

[slawek]

Latest official data

Confirmed cases: 2463

Deaths: 80

https://3g.dxy.cn/newh5/view/pneumonia

[markyh]

7 hours ago, jiltedjen said:

I would imagine you would have to wear them now, and until the whole thing had blown over, and when with your family partner etc. 

I’m more thinking you get it, and NHS overwhelmed, as they can’t even deal with the boomers getting colds on mass most winters with endless black alerts, so you need to have enough easy food in stock to feed yourself to recover from it. 

cant help catching it, but you can be prepared if/when that happens. 

not much use if it does hit your local town and you think ‘bloody hell better get some supplies’ only to find your local supermarket is stripped bear by those nutters who panic buy stuff, then you head home, feeling perky, to get very ill, and not have enough strength to go buy more food or cook much. 

might as well get a few extra tins of beans and other ‘easy’ food sooner. 

Those masks are pretty horrible to wear. would be an interesting although scary experience to see the UK gov shut down towns and cities, close motorways, close non-vital places of work. 

 

Pointless if you don’t have a shotgun or two. If tshtf and you don’t have firearms you won’t keep you supplies. Neighbourless like me will be knocking on the door, shotgun in hand , demanding to borrow your stash.

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

7 hours ago, hotblack42 said:

I use Central line to commute Tue-Thu.  Decided to start & finish extra early using quiet trains for next week or so while this plays out.  Will switch to full remote working pronto if things get hairy..

 

7 hours ago, slawek said:

I don't think there is any meaningful risk of being infected in the UK at the moment.  At the worst there may be tens of people infected, most likely a few or none in the whole UK.  

I was on the Tube last week and was concerned at the gaggle of coughing Chinese Tourists in the tube carriage. 
 

That said, if I did catch 2019-nCoV, I’d suddenly be very keen to attend Brexit Celebrations. 

Edited January 27, 2020 by Mikhail Liebenstein

[Chunketh]

11 hours ago, hotblack42 said:

Yes, definitely to travel point - apart from repatriation of brits into quarantine.

If this is a pandemic, 10,000 regulars freely using lethal force nationwide, would stop unauthorised movements almost immediately I would have thought.

 

 

Not sure all those 10,000 would be willing participants in a shoot your neighbor exercise. 

[Chunketh]

3000/461/80

[rollover]

Quote

Coronavirus cases in China

• 2,744 Confirmed cases

• 5,794 Suspected cases

• 461 In critical condition

• 51 People recovered and discharged from hospital

• 80 Deaths

At least 44 cases have been confirmed abroad, there have been no deaths outside China.

BBC

The death rate is quite high, but I would think not all cases have been reported.

[jiltedjen]

7 hours ago, markyh said:

Pointless if you don’t have a shotgun or two. If tshtf and you don’t have firearms you won’t keep you supplies. Neighbourless like me will be knocking on the door, shotgun in hand , demanding to borrow your stash.

It’s not an end of the world scenario, it’s a temporary pause to access to goods and services for maybe a week or two.

if anything having some spares could help people around you. 

i know societies can break down quickly, but it’s not like the government has totally collapsed, and we are under seige like in Kosovo. 

 

[Chunketh]

33 minutes ago, rollover said:

The death rate is quite high, but I would think not all cases have been reported.

The worrying part is the critical cases, what happens when they run out of beds.