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Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

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34 minutes ago, anonguest said:

Because....that won't actually boil the water?

Good enough to wash with though

22 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

I was sold old as a consultant for £1800 a day in 2000.

We all know what people got then. my point was anyone could do it not many get 400-500 a day unskilled.

I was contracted out at 200k a year then, I never saw any thing like that.

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8 minutes ago, Ghostly said:

I can recommend the film “Contagion” on Netflix. The start was pretty much like our experience of the coronavirus.

and the ending?

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4 minutes ago, Ghostly said:

I can recommend the film “Contagion” on Netflix. The start was pretty much like our experience of the coronavirus.

Yep they got the processes and terminology on point in that film.

Only issue is that for dramatic effect their MEV-1 virus killed too fast liquidising peoples brains like rabies and organs like Ebola with R value like flu.

Our covid is much more elegant my kids have that pandemic game on their phones at that too is unnervingly accurate (ish) too lethal and you kill more than you infect to win in that game you have to have a virus like Covid highly infectious without killing people right away.  You then mutate it into something worse and start killing people in their billions that is scary as ******.

 

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2 hours ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

I've done OK do far. But not as well as the hedge funds! 

You're probably doing better than the hedge funds. Either they have been losing money for years betting that prices would fall and now they are clawing back some of their losses (e.g. Crispin Odey and goldbugs like Peter Schiff). Or they truly are hedging and are losing a lot in their main portfolios but making enormous gains (probably roughly offsetting) gains elsewhere.

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7 minutes ago, Kosmin said:

You're probably doing better than the hedge funds. Either they have been losing money for years betting that prices would fall and now they are clawing back some of their losses (e.g. Crispin Odey and goldbugs like Peter Schiff). Or they truly are hedging and are losing a lot in their main portfolios but making enormous gains (probably roughly offsetting) gains elsewhere.

An example of the first type is Taleb's Universa fund, buying deep out of the money put options in the good times and then getting a massive payoff now, YTD return > 4000%.

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4 hours ago, thirdwave said:

Apologies. There seems to be something to your claim. South Asians suffer from high levels of cardio vascular disease, Type II Diabetes plus cultural factors (extended families, communal prayers) may explain some of the discrepancy but not all of it.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/bame-groups-hit-harder-covid-19-than-white-people-uk

 

Sounds more like a 'poor people' indicator - funnily enough it looks more drastic in the US

https://theconversation.com/covid-19-is-hitting-black-and-poor-communities-the-hardest-underscoring-fault-lines-in-access-and-care-for-those-on-margins-135615

 

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2 hours ago, Dorkins said:

Nominal wage inflation is one for the history books, graduate starting salary circa 2000 around 20-odd k, today around 20-odd k. Even the ongoing rises in NMW are really just shifting the cost of tax credits onto employers' wage bills rather than letting people take much extra home. People think £250k for a house is cheap and yet if you take home a 4 digit number starting with a 2 each month you are doing better than most people. Total madhouse.

Yes I think most people here would agree.

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3 hours ago, Dorkins said:

Nominal wage inflation is one for the history books, graduate starting salary circa 2000 around 20-odd k, today around 20-odd k. Even the ongoing rises in NMW are really just shifting the cost of tax credits onto employers' wage bills rather than letting people take much extra home. People think £250k for a house is cheap and yet if you take home a 4 digit number starting with a 2 each month you are doing better than most people. Total madhouse.

ONS figures show that we've had nominal wage inflation. Why are you trying to cherry pick data? 

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4 hours ago, Bruce Banner said:

We did but it was a nonsense. Joggers, literally, brushing past us. Cyclists, in full racing spandex, weaving in and out of pedestrians. I think I'll fabricate a boxing glove on a stout one metre stick, if I can get them with that they're fair game.

Weren’t you complaining the other day about people not being allowed to do as they please like sunbathing? The fact is that you cannot trust people to be civil and keep their distance which is why we have the lockdown. 

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1 hour ago, Social Justice League said:

And still the lockdown continues.  Are we not at the peak yet?

Probably somewhere around the peak in the rate of acceleration, it's looking increasingly likely that the number of new cases isn't accelerating now.

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21 hours ago, kzb said:

The confidence range for Lockdown is enormous.  From about 5% to 90%.

We seem to be assuming that the current lockdown will achieve 50%, reducing R from 2.5 to 1.25.  This isn't good enough we need to get it below 1.0.

 

 

Yeah but people want to sunbathe in the parks. 🙄

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7 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

The UK government anticipated the pandemic, carried out planning exercises, produced lots of recommendations including maintaining a PPE stockpile and then did nothing.

The UK government anticipated an influenza pandemic not a SARS pandemic.

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1 hour ago, dugsbody said:

ONS figures show that we've had nominal wage inflation. Why are you trying to cherry pick data? 

Wage inflation has increased 13% since 2008 but the median wage has decreased by 4% in the same period. People on the minimum wage are seeing increases but everyone else is seeing decreases. People who buy houses, cars, holidays and other significant discretionary spending have wages lower than they were ten years ago relative to most inflationary measures. 

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38 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

Probably somewhere around the peak in the rate of acceleration, it's looking increasingly likely that the number of new cases isn't accelerating now.

Listening to LBC a couple nights ago, it was said that new cases are no longer accelerating, and instead of doubling every 2-3 days, they're now doubling every 6 or so. It seems the exponential growth of new cases is over. Deaths hopefully will follow this pattern in 2-3 weeks. 

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Sweden seem to be doing reasonably well despite having effectively no lockdown.  I suppose the population density being less than a tenth of ours and socially distancing as a cultural norm (leaving gaps at bus stop queues) will be helping.

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6 minutes ago, Jolly Roger said:

Sweden seem to be doing reasonably well despite having effectively no lockdown.  I suppose the population density being less than a tenth of ours and socially distancing as a cultural norm (leaving gaps at bus stop queues) will be helping.

Not just that. Much smaller population, easier to govern.

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39 minutes ago, Orb said:

Listening to LBC a couple nights ago, it was said that new cases are no longer accelerating, and instead of doubling every 2-3 days, they're now doubling every 6 or so. It seems the exponential growth of new cases is over. Deaths hopefully will follow this pattern in 2-3 weeks. 

Circa 20k uk death total to be expected?

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1 hour ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

Weren’t you complaining the other day about people not being allowed to do as they please like sunbathing? The fact is that you cannot trust people to be civil and keep their distance which is why we have the lockdown. 

If they're sunbathing, or taking a short rest sitting on the grass, they're not bumping into me or riding around like idiots on pavements on their bicycles.

The thing that plod allow puts me at risk and the thing that they seem to get wound up about, doesn't. A cynic might say that the ones sitting down away from anyone else are easier to catch. 

I stay well away from everyone, including plod.

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54 minutes ago, regprentice said:

Wage inflation has increased 13% since 2008 but the median wage has decreased by 4% in the same period. People on the minimum wage are seeing increases but everyone else is seeing decreases. People who buy houses, cars, holidays and other significant discretionary spending have wages lower than they were ten years ago relative to most inflationary measures. 

Could you show your data please, that doesn't sound correct.

My point was that debt is eroded by nominal wage growth, not real, and we've had that. 

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10 minutes ago, rantnrave said:

Circa 20k uk death total to be expected?

They glossed over that part. 

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The jogging thing was something I wondered about earlier, taking the dogs for a loop walk around the country road and footpath near me.  A couple of times stopping at the side to let a runner overtake, the path is about two metres wide but then of course I carry on walking in their slipstream of huffed and puffed air.  Felt a bit exposed and paranoid as they are doing a lot of heavy exhaling on their route, unlike other walkers or cyclists.

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  • 397 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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